3SOF

We had good news on XMSR yesterday before the open: XM NavTraffic Service Continues Rapid Expansion With Addition of Nine New Markets

Yet, the stock went down on the day. Volume was a stagering 24 million shares 

I don't know what to say from such a strong volume on this technical breakdown, but it can mean two opposite things:

1) Buyers are very attracted by the lower price, yet investors are bailing out because of the technical breakdown
2) We'll have a serious breakdown and liquidity problems at the company will show up.

I don't know which one is going to be, but I'll go with the chart. I'm expecting to close this short position on XMSR at the technical target of the breakdown, $22.

XMSR goes down when the market goes down, it goes down when the market goes up, it goes down with bad news, good news, down with big volume, down with little volume. Down, down and down.

The chart clearly says the trend is bearish and the technical target of the last breakdown is $22.

That's where I'll cover my short position on XMSR.

No news today on XMSR, I'll continue with my plan of closing this short position at $22.

Yesterday's candle suggests there can be some short covering today on XMSR but technically everything points to lower and lower prices on the stock. I believe XMSR won't make any meaningfull upward move before it touches $22 or lower.

I'll continue trying to buy to cover XMSR around $22.

The previous day's candlestick really told yesterday's story. I don't feel like owning short positions at this point. The general market is reacting well to bad news - it seems it has already discounted an economic slowdown.

Also, CSCO's numbers yesterday may mean another rally to new highs in the general market, because out of favor large cap stocks may come into favor, as most of them are cheap, if we take into consideration bond yields and earnings multiples.

Of course, this doesn't mean XMSR won't go down or that it isn't in bad financial shape, it is. But it is always harder for a stock to go down in a bull market than in a bear market.

I'll buy to cover XMSR around today's open, getting my first profit in bear operations. Of course it is my first profit, we're in a bull market !

Might want to cover pre market-

Up over 6% now!!

Quote from: boatguy on February 09, 2006, 08:26:29 AM
Might want to cover pre market-

Up over 6% now!!

Damn it, bad luck  It's because of something Ophra related 

Yes, I'll buy to cover in the pre-market after I send the newsletter ... I'd better send it right away.

Looks like XMSR made David's original target of $22 on the downside(LOD $21.65)

I soulda, woulda ............................... 

Anyways, applaud to David for his TA 

I just covered this today near the close.  I plan on re-shorting it next week.

Profile: XM Satellite Radio Holdings, Inc. operates as a satellite radio service company primarily in the United States. It provides music, news, talk, information, entertainment, and sports programming for reception by vehicle, home, and portable radios, as well as over the Internet to approximately 6 million subscribers.
Website: http://www.xmradio.com

Trading Idea:
XMSR is down trending since last September, its fundamentals are not in good shape, and the stock has been severely punished by investors. We are not buying XMSR for its fundamentals or prospects; this is purely a technical trade for short term purposes.

After reaching 13$ last month after a hard sell off, XMSR manage to hold above this reference making a sort of double bottom pattern... It seems to be ready for a technical rebound, volume increased significantly yesterday with a lot of activity on the intraday chart and a close near the highs of the day.

For the upside, there is a resistance near $15.00, and above it a lot of room for a further rebound. XMSR is trading inside a descending channel, with top near $18.00.

We are going to buy XMSR today at or near the open, and we'll set a stop at $13.20 for this trade.

Best regards,

additional information:
XM, Sirius Rise On Merger Talk
Tuesday , June 27, 2006 00:35 ET

Jun 27, 2006 (financialwire.net via COMTEX) -- June 27, 2006 (FinancialWire) Sirius Satellite Radio (NASDAQ: SIRI) and XM Satellite (NASDAQ: XMSR) both rose after the chief executive of Sirius speculated about combining the two companies.

Mel Karmazin said that he would be interested in buying rival XM, though he considered the possible regulatory filings to be difficult for both companies. Sirius and XM are the only two major satellite radios in the US, making it likely that a merger could be riddled by antitrust concerns.

Shares of XM jumped 6.8% to close at $14.37 on the speculation, while Sirius jumped 5.2% to $4.70 in Monday's trade.

&

XMSR: RBC Capital Keeps @ Outperform; Cuts Tgt to $26 vs $30
Monday , June 19, 2006 09:22 ET

Issuer: XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc (NasdaqNM: XMSR)
Analyst Firm:  RBC Capital Markets
Ratings Action: REITERATION
Current Rating: Outperform
Target Price Action: DECREASE
Target Price: $26.00 (-13.33% from $30.00)

&

XMSR: Short Interest UP 8.9% to 39.3M in Jun 2006
Monday , June 26, 2006 16:23 ET

According to new short interest data from NASDAQ, short interest for XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc (NasdaqNM: XMSR) INCREASED 8.9% to 39,344,810 shares for the month ended mid-June, 2006.

SYMBOL               MAY            JUNE          CHANGE       %CHANGE    DAYS/COVER
--------   -------------   -------------   -------------  ------------  ----------
XMSR          36,121,241      39,344,810      +3,223,569        +8.92%           6

Based on XMSR's 20-day average daily share volume of 7,702,615, it would require approximately 6 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.

cheers
Oliver

An UBS analyst published some positive comments about XMSR:

QuoteUBS analyst Lucas Binder maintained a "Buy" rating and a $25 price target for XM.

Full Article: http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060628/xm_satellite_radio_mover.html?.v=1

Update:
XMSR had a nice session, recovering almost all of Tuesday's loses. Volume was below average, but that's not an issue for now. $14.50 is the intraday resistance (Monday and yesterday barrier), but $15 is the main reference for a further move up, we expect XMSR to break both barriers soon.

Trading Plan:
Hold XMSR with a stop @ $13.20

Regards,

XMSR is approaching its resistance at $15.00; this is the key level for a further move to the upside. With the right market conditions we expect this rebound to reach the upper side of XMSR's descending channel (approximately $18)

Trading Plan:
Hold XMSR with a stop @ $13.20

Regards,

Update:
XMSR is being attracted to the $15 resistance; Monday was another strong close even being a low volume day... All we need now is the breakout of the $15 barrier, and we'll have the coast clear for a nice drive.

Trading Plan:
Hold XMSR with a stop @ $13.20

Regards,

Update:
XMSR was down today because of this:
Sirius subscriber growth outpaces XM
Race for subscribers to satellite radio tightens up

From a technical point of view, XMSR approached its short term ascending support, not changing the current rebound pattern we are trading. We'll stand to the same plan for now.

Trading Plan:
Hold XMSR with a stop @ $13.20

Regards,