3SOF

interesting... you call it "a nice candle" while I call it "fundamentals":

1. todat DNDN announced that they have finalized the enrolemnt to a new phase-3 trial for early stage prostate cancer, based on the same technology as their prior trials

2. the market size of the early stage is 4-5 times bigger than the late stage, and respresent over 200,000 patients (US only)

the price of Provenge, the drug, will be around $40,000/patient, so despite the higher-than-usuall production process costs, we are talking about a mkt potential of $8 billion a year. yes. without any side effects (this is NOT chemotherapy), so if approved, a 5-10 revenue multiply could be applied here... and a mkt cap of $40-60 BILLION... whereas today's DNDN's mkt cap is merely $350M... doesn't this risk/reward ratio deserves a few chips (NOT the farm, though, since there are risks here).

Feel free to ask fundamental Qs about DNDN - I follow this company for several months and I am very familiar with their various clinical studies.

5.35 $ resistiance is broken,
analyst opinion is o.k.:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ao?s=DNDN
I will start to accumulate

I explored and filtered my 11000 stocks database and got the DNDN chart as very interesting.

Then I've searched our website and found this excellent research piece by one of our members, stockpicker

I have two descending lines broken so I don't need much more to buy DNDN at today's open:



Everyday I will analyze DNDN after the market close until I sell the stock. I always tell I'm going to sell before I actually take action. You just have to follow the answers to this post.

Everyday our team scans and filters 11000 stocks to come up with the 3 best stocks to buy on a short term basis. We run a diversified public portfolio which is up 133% since May 2005. We have great traders in our community which take advantage of short term opportunities in stocks.

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Bought me in yesterday at 3,37
think this is ready to fly.

good luck to everyone.

Well, I got  stopped out at 5.33 and that is all the loss I was willing to take considering large loss looming for GLGS.   Will wait for next recommendation from David .
P

Pete ,

That was a pretty tight stop on DNDN. It's gonna fluctuate a little. Gotta give it just a bit more room IMO. Dave says again and again not to look at intra day. If you hadn't you would have been up 9cents from your stop already.

We all hate to lose but those winners make up for it

Glad I waited on this one.. will get in tommorrow morning.. Nice Up volume on the close

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=DNDN&t=1d

Thanks basanlas, Now I feel that too but as a principle I put stop around 5% except in special cases (mostly bb stocks). I have been burned quite many times when I deviated from 5% limit.
Just curious, how do you place stops if not by percentage? Any ideas are welcome. 
Thanks,
P

Quote from: Pete on June 22, 2005, 06:00:15 PM
Thanks basanlas, Now I feel that too but as a principle I put stop around 5% except in special cases (mostly bb stocks). I have been burned quite many times when I deviated from 5% limit.
Just curious, how do you place stops if not by percentage? Any ideas are welcome. 
Thanks,
P

Pete,

I would be the wrong guy to ask about stops. I just rode FWHT from 17 down to 5 ish telling myself all the way down it couldn't get any worse. Well it did!!. And I wasn't very diversified to boot.

So I am learning ,like you I suppose, how to make the best out of the market.These guys do know there stuff so I am just watching and learning from the pros.

I think the problem with a 5% stop in the 3SF portfolio is that David looks at stocks that have just received a volume push and along the way many will sell to take profits. Good luck and may we all prosper.

Basanlas

I bought after a breakout and DNDN had a pullback. When something like this happens we must look at the nature of the pullback. How much did it pullback? How was the volume?

DNDN retraced to a close at the midpoint of the last white candle. Volume was half of the volume the stock had on the advance day. So DNDN had a perfectly normal and even desirable pullback, at least for now.

Given the market action I expect the stock to resume trend and push higher tomorrow, higher than $5.67.

Considering stops I believe a man who has gone through some pain in the market can set up an automatic stop loss rule like 5% or 10%, but an experienced speculator knows when to take a loss. I guess more than 20% is always a loss ... but just 5% stop is too tight for most stocks, at least the stocks covered here in the 3 Stocks on Fire portfolio. But one needs to set rules according to his trading style, so he feels confortable with them, confortable enough to obey the rules. It's harder to follow another man's rules ...

Good luck in trading 

Quote from: Pete on June 22, 2005, 06:00:15 PM
Thanks basanlas, Now I feel that too but as a principle I put stop around 5% except in special cases (mostly bb stocks). I have been burned quite many times when I deviated from 5% limit.
Just curious, how do you place stops if not by percentage? Any ideas are welcome. 
Thanks,
P

Hey Pete, As David says you have to set and be comfortable with your own rules on stops. Have a look in the Stock Talking forum I started a thread there on money mangement / position size / stop loss. If you put in 5% stop on each trade you'll get stopped out too often and soon find your winners are not covering the losses, also with 5% blanket stop you are not taking into account where support on the chart is so intrday stop outs become more likely again. Funny as it sounds too tights  stop policy whilst on face value saves your capital over time can help shrink it. It's a complex topic and everyones risk tolerance varies. I'll post some more on Stops etc in that thread later as it is something I focus a lot on in my money mangement part of my own trading rules.
Mike

Thanks Guys,
basablas I can relate to the FWHT case. I have had similar cases and wished I had put a 5% stop on those. It turns out I frequently get stopped out on the wrong ones (the one's I shouldn't).
Maybe I will do better in future. I am new and learning a lot everyday. I wish I was learning while my potfolio was growing.

Dave,  I and everyone on the board., I am sure, appreciates your service and looks forward to your analysis and picks. Keep'm coming.

Aussie,You have hit the nail on the head. My portfolio has actually shrunk and after the analysis I find that I get out of the position too soon. I must check your thread on money management and see how I can do better. Somewhere else on the board I read that putting a stop at previous day low is another strategy. BTW: Was looking on the pins on the World Map and you seem to be holding the fort for the whole continent. More power to you Mate

David,

Many thanks for highlighting my DNDN recommendation the other day and I am sorry that the first trading day didn't work well for you. However, DNDN is not a typical T-A play, there is a lot more to know about DNDN beyond the science and the daily price movements.

An important part of the story is DNDN's short interest. As you can see, there is a huge S.I. position of nearly 14 million shares and it is often manipulated by a couple of large hedge funds that specialize in shorting biotech stocks (and often make a lot of money since most small biotech eventually fail).

However, it is more likely than not that the Hedge Fund's bet against DNDN has been proven wrong, and it is becoming more and more difficult for them to cover the huge short position. A great example is the PR from Feb 17, 2005:

http://biz.yahoo.com/e/050217/dndn8-k.html

... and check the chart... huge trading volume and DNDN ended DOWN following such great PR ...  check the day's volume and realize what happens when large Hedge Funsd, coupled with FALSE "analytic" report from Brean Murray, "explained" that ... the trial was unbalanced and that DNDN's CEO lies. Well, in the recent ASCO conference (last month) it was clearly proved that the 9901 was indeed balanced, so the only excuse the Shorts are using is that Gold, DNDN's CEO is a liar.

The way that DNDN behave is as follow: good news followed by a pps pop... then a steady decline, using a "red candle" technique which works well on relatively low-volume trading days. This will continue for the forseeable future UNTIL the company releases FIRM and final results and larger institutions will step in and start buying -- at this stage the 14 million shorts will not have the chance to manipulate the pps any more. Therefore, trading DNDN is not easy, it is one of those stocks that you need to hold and hope that the end-end results will be positive... the upside is huge, the likelihood is high... on the other hand, there is an inevitable risk here, so DNDN can only be a relative small portion of someone's portfolio.

Good luck to everyone

Quote from: stockpicker on June 23, 2005, 08:59:12 AM
...
An important part of the story is DNDN's short interest. As you can see, there is a huge S.I. position of nearly 14 million shares and it is often manipulated by a couple of large hedge funds that specialize in shorting biotech stocks (and often make a lot of money since most small biotech eventually fail)....

Stockpicker,
DO NOT forget, that this is a BIOTECH company we are talking about and til´now the shorts were right. I made my mistake in January: nice short interest, no bad news coming, good news on the way, company full of cash, nice technical picture and ... I lost 1/2 of my investment  in 9 days. It hurt, it really hurt! And I still can not understand - why?
Well, now I'm long in DNDN since April 2005 @4.57 and even knowing all the news and technicals, I'm still prepared for bad surprises because this is a BIOTECH company! [email protected] and do not count on huge short interest!
Good luck to all of You!

any updates dave?