3SOF

Melf Elf:

Thanks for the technical chart analysis.  I am holding on to GTE based on speculation only (they promise big things including a possible breakeven on profit/loss this quarter). It helps to have some technicals also.

Ain't it just crazy when you see something and then someone shows you something totally different that you just completely missed - that's why I love 3SOF!!

Big applauds Melf Elf, the only thing I don't like is that the falling wedge could potentially fall a good bit further before breaking, as opposed to my bear trap, but you plays it how you sees it I suppose.  For me I will take you advice and look for an upside break of the falling wedge as confirmation.  If this one does break, I see it breaking hard - could get a solid secondary run well into $4+.

Thankis again for your insights

Quote from: ScottishTrader on January 29, 2006, 05:54:36 PM
Ain't it just crazy when you see something and then someone shows you something totally different that you just completely missed - that's why I love 3SOF!!

Scotsman,

Great fun, isn't it?!  That very thing just happened to me when calven put up his chart in the ASTM folder.  I've been ignoring ASTM because it looks so weak on the daily chart, but the weekly chart still looks very bullish.

Quote
the only thing I don't like is that the falling wedge could potentially fall a good bit further before breaking, as opposed to my bear trap, but you plays it how you sees it I suppose.  For me I will take you advice and look for an upside break of the falling wedge as confirmation.  If this one does break, I see it breaking hard - could get a solid secondary run well into $4+.

I know what you mean.  Those sharply falling wedges can be tricky. 

brandyjoco,

You're very welcome, and good luck with your trade!  Thanks for your note in the NVAX folder.

Did anyone else besides me get taken to the cleaners on this pos.     It might be a good buy now.

I got taken to the cleaners too!! I had 3000 shares - how about you? I sold out at about 2.80.  I'm not sure what to do because there are alot of other good stocks I would like to buy - possibly TGB. I am waiting for Dave Randolph's analysis before making a decision.

Personally, I don't want to sit around on GTE for the next 30 days.  I remember when SNTO got hit hard. It went down for a couple of days and then started to rebound. GTE may go down tomorrow too so if you decide to stay with the stock you may need to be patient. I think my patience ran out.

Well GTE made a BIG bounce yesterday afternoon on this story from the Dow Jones Newswires:

Pact Delay May Be Twice As Good For GlobeTel
http://webreprints.djreprints.com/1404921412584.html

and while I had been thinking the last couple days were probably a very good time to get back into GTE as the pps had floored and settled, of course I didn't and then completely missed this 25%+ move!!!

But I think this could really fuel another speculative ride.  It also appears to corroborate both their story and suggests they may get half the money upfront   The news wasn't officially released on the newswires (I don't know why) but when it does, maybe this morening, GTE should see another pop.  Probably looking for a strong day today - may hopefully push into the high 3's, provided it doesn't just start walking its way back down.  But I think this is a very strong story, confirming that this deal is going ahead, and investors certainty should reflect this.

I played it yesterday on the big volume and break out. Good to trade but another type that who knows if it is real. They intend to build a WiMax system in Russia but people here in Russia first wonder if it is real then why would a tiny company with no track record be selected and also no one knows the Russian company supposedly made up of some investors. Then there is the problem in obtaining the frequencys as the government of course controls who get the use of the "radio waves" and no one has yet applied and there may be huge bribes to pay even if accepted.

Maybe all could be real of course but just a very strange situation to not have any known company involved if it is real.

Well walk down it did, but I think GTE is about to start moving again.  A recent touch on the long term ascending trendline confirms this as support, and I see (2 levels) of descending resistance coming into play, forming an ascending triangle with an upside target of 5.75ish.  There was some funny pre-market action yesterday, popping the pps up a bit, but it pulled back during the day.  Volume is currently fairly low (well still almost 1m shares per day), but there is real expectation of an announcement about the Russian deal in the coming days.  As they say, the proof is in the pudding with this one.  I am fairly (and I mean fairly) confident they will come up with the goods, and put the shorts to rest.

GTE is moving on this news! Looks like the Russian deal is going to come through
GlobeTel Provides Update on Closing of Russian Transaction

March 03, 2006 09:42:01 (ET)


FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla., Mar 03, 2006 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- GlobeTel Communications Corp. (GTE, Trade) today announced that it was notified today by LLC Internafta that the close of the transaction providing the funding for the installation of wireless networks in 30 cities throughout the Russian Federation, scheduled for March 2, 2006, has been delayed by the bank until next week due to internal bank scheduling. The transaction is being syndicated by several tier one European Banks.

Timothy Huff, CEO of GlobeTel stated, "Internafta has reassured GlobeTel that the transaction is in its final stages. This has been a suspenseful time for our shareholders, and for us, as we wait for the network to begin its deployment. Internafta and GlobeTel do not control the timing and events in this banking transaction."

LLC Internafta's Director General Maxim Chernizov added, "We are confident that all the issues will be resolved in the upcoming few days not weeks. We have been working together with the staff at GlobeTel Wireless for many months on this transaction and I feel that we are at the last few steps in a very complex banking process. We are committed to this transaction and still remain very excited about providing a state-of-the-art wireless network to the people of the Russian Federation."

Timothy Huff went on to say, "This transaction will not be allowed to be left hanging open with continuing delays. I believe it is in the best interest of GlobeTel to continue to work with Internafta as long as I believe that the transaction is moving forward and that both parties are working in good faith to finalize it."

The network will be operated by NuTel Wireless ("NuTel"), a Russian company 100% owned by a European Joint Venture company established by GlobeTel and Internafta. Each party will own 50% of the shares of the European JV company that owns NuTel.

About GlobeTel Communications Corporation

GlobeTel Communications Corp. develops and provides an integrated suite of telecommunications products and services, leveraging its advances in Stored Value, VOIP and Wireless Access technologies. Individually, each of GlobeTel's five business units function as distinct, strong stand-alone entities: Together they form a powerful alliance of human talent and technological innovation resulting in the SuperHub(TM) worldwide VOIP network, Sanswire Stratellite(TM) platform and products enabling simpler, cheaper transmission of voice, data and money. GlobeTel has historically focused its business development on markets outside of the United States. Current and pending operations exist in Asia, Europe, South America, Mexico and the Caribbean.

For more information, please visit: http://www.globetel.net.

Certain statements in this release constitute forward-looking statements or statements which may be deemed or construed to be forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. The words "forecast," "project," "intend," "expect" "should," "would," and similar expressions and all statements, which are not historical facts, are intended to identify forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements involve and are subject to known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which could cause the Company's actual results, performance (finance or operating) or achievements to differ from future results, performance (financing and operating) or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Sanswire Networks and the launch of the Company's high-altitude airship are subject to various risk factors and investors should construe any such investment as speculative. Additionally, there are certain unknown political and economic risks associated with doing business in the Russian Federation that may affect the Company's operations. The company undertakes no duty to update information contained in this press release or in other public disclosures at any time. The above may be more fully discussed in the Company's SEC filings.

SOURCE: GlobeTel Communications Corporation


GlobeTel Communications Corporation, Fort Lauderdale 
Robert Bleckman, 954-775-1427 
Copyright Business Wire 2006

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Well, I've lost on GTE as many times as I have won (though fortunately I have won a lot more than I have lost), but this time I think GTE is set to rip.  Am in heavy (for me) after friday's announcement and topped up a bit more today at 3.38. 

GTE made a nice break out of the symmetric triangle today on solid volume, and with the announcement of the completion of the deal to happen any day, I would expect some slightly volatile but strong trading in the coming days.  Any big dips should only be positions to add, and I think there are enough people out there thinking this way (and enough people who don't want to sell before the announcement) to keep the share price up in the meantime.  The price seems to be held in check right now by capping resistance between 3.60 and 3.67, lets see if it pushes through this.

I know there is no such thing as a "sure thing" but right now GTE sure feels that way.  Maybe that is when I should start getting worried

Oh and yeah, it's also my pick for the stock picking contest, so lets go GTE

I've been watching GTE for awhile now and lost some on it. I was wondering - I saw the symetrical triangle but GTE is at the top of the bollinger band.  Will that hold it back from going up right now? I would like to buy some but not at the highest price.

brandyjoco,

I really don't think the BBs will come into consideration too much here.  If anything, it will be a good thing as it starts to push the BB envelope upwards.  If you look at the move in November when GTE moved up past 2.25, it broke the upper BB and continued to ride and exceed that top BB until it peaked for the move at 3.66, over a 50% move in a couple of weeks.  I wouldn't be surprised to see a similar reaction here.

My suggestion is if you want to get in, just get in.  Buy at the open if it is not gapping up, or if you want to aim for a price tarrget, I think anything below 3.50 will be a reasonable entry.  There may even be a pullback tomorrow morning if it looks like there is no news tomorrow.  The main thing here is that when the news hits, and it could be tomorrow or the day after, but they have virtually guaranteed it will be this week, GTE will start ripping, how high I have no idea, but I am fairly sure it will go solidly over $4.

Of course this is speculative, and it could blow up in our faces, but from the last PR they sounded pretty confident it was just a matter of a few days - they would have a lot of people screaming for blood if it fell through now.

GTE pulled back with the rest of the market yesterday (man it was an ugly day - I hate it when almost EVERYTHING oonmy monitor is red )  Volume was moderate, and I think that it will continue to tradde this way until the announcement is made.  It could quite conceivably continue to lose ground, possibly testing descending resistance/support that it broke out of on Monday, around 3.20 or so, though it would be nice to see it hold support at 3.30.

We're all waiting to see what they have to say about this russian deal.  any day now.....

nice commentary on "trading the news" on GTE from upside surprise.

Worth a look if you're long

http://www.upsidesurprise.com/

Well if GTE broke out of its symmetrical triangle formation this week (which I believe it did) the last couple days action brought it back down to test descending support and the 50MA.  There was quite a bit of selling at the end of the week, in anticipation of the news on the Russian deal that did not come last week.  Of course it is now expected this week, and the specifics of the deal will likely have a huge impact on how the share price reacts.

The more I look at GTE, the more precarious a situation I think they are in.  Everything rides on this deal and it will really determine the next long term direction for the share price (aside from the fact that a "no deal" will induce an enormous amount of selling )

Looking at the long term weekly chart, it is clear that GTE recently completed its third serious run-up in share price.  The last two resulted in a highly volatile congestion zone, followed by an extended downtrend.  GTE looks to be in the midst of this volatile congestion zone right now, which bears a striking similarity to the beginning of 2005.  MACD is also suggesting a repeat of the beginning of last year.  We really don't want a repeat of this one, which pulled the share price down from a high of $5.50 all the way down to almost $1.

Short term I am lookig for descendig support and the 50MA to hold on Monday (I hope) and that they get their acto together with the PR.  I'm sure a lotta people are getting real nervous right about now.  Their last PR does still give me confidence that their deal will go through, but I'm getting nervous about risking as much as I am on what is ultimately a pretty high risk strategy.

It may be better to reduce my position to reduce my short term risk, and buy back in on the coat tails of a breakout if it should happen, accepting I will pay a higher price, but you have to pay a premium for confirmation.