3SOF

Quote from: Terlisa on February 21, 2006, 03:34:11 PM

Quote from: Terlisa on February 20, 2006, 04:02:09 PM
Ok... Another view of SIRI's chart before triggering my LONG trade on SIRI..

**I think Bears are still strong on SIRI so i might trade with them fo a while**

SIRI is down again.... Prepare to buy below $5.... say 4.50 to 4.80 .... goodluck

I still believe SIRI will go down below $5.. so let's get it on!! let's play with the BEARS

Im waiting patiently on SIRI. Please continue to update this thread Terlisa - you seem to have a good take on this one. I like your chart annotations as well. Please post the day you buy if you dont mind and keep up the good work on this one !  (APPLAUD)

BTW - The recent action of the MACD indicates to me the slowing of this downstrend. IMO we have one more move down <10% before a bounce....

Let me know what you think - chart posted below

cal 

Quote from: Terlisa on February 19, 2006, 09:10:41 PM
Melf Elf how did you get SIRI @ 4.71? the low so far is 5.23 .. am i right?

Sorry, Terlisa, that was a typo.  Yes, you're right.  I bought the buy pivot at 5.71 on February 15, a penny above the prior day's high.  Got stopped out at 5.46 at the open, the morning of earnings, on February 17.  Loss: 4.4%

Quote from: Melf Elf on February 14, 2006, 04:41:52 AM
[I'm wondering, however, if the three closes back below the Wolfe Wave breakout diminishes (or even negates) the bullishness of that breakout.

That probably was a good clue that I should have stayed out of the trade. 

Quote from: calven on February 28, 2006, 12:10:25 PM
BTW - The recent action of the MACD indicates to me the slowing of this downstrend. IMO we have one more move down <10% before a bounce....

calven,

The MACD histogram was one of the things that I liked when I took the trade.  There were three bullish divergences, then a cross above the signal line.  That's tricky when a stock is in a downtrend, like SIRI, but with the Wolfe Wave possibility, it looked promising.  Often, it works.  This one didn't.

The stop signal was for when SIRI broke back into the previous WW channel....(failed ww)

Anways, I plan on buying in SIRI very soon for the 10-15% bounce it should offer...

Here is what I see for a non risky 1-2 day hold type trade... The longer term bottom should come within the next two weeks. I may buy on friday... I like the risk reward - 4.20 is STRONG support and 6$ is a nice bounce...

CHART BELOW

Quote from: calven on February 28, 2006, 04:04:34 PM
The stop signal was for when SIRI broke back into the previous WW channel....(failed ww)

calven,

Okay, that's what I thought originally, but now I'm confused since you said... 

Quote from: calven on February 11, 2006, 01:42:29 AM
I would have to disagree with you Melf, on this one...
I think Im going to buy in the high 5.60's if possible monday. I think this is a good trade!
Wish me luck... 
cal   

The high 5.60s was back inside the WW, near where I bought at 5.71.  No problem at all.  I still liked the technicals, and used the stop.  Just want to clarify for the future:  If a stock closes back inside the WW channel, should we consider it a failed WW from now on?


I have to laugh that, after our discussion,  I ended up buying it, and you didn't.  You did have good luck!   

Thanks, and I appreciate all of your efforts on these WWs.  Applause.

Fortionately for me I bought HCBK instead .... 

I came VERY close to buying... I still dont think 5.60 is  a bad LT entry...

Quote from: calven on February 28, 2006, 12:10:25 PM
Im waiting patiently on SIRI. Please continue to update this thread Terlisa - you seem to have a good take on this one. I like your chart annotations as well. Please post the day you buy if you dont mind and keep up the good work on this one !  (APPLAUD)

Sure Calven, i'll try to post it when I buy

Quote from: Melf Elf on February 28, 2006, 03:00:52 PM

The MACD histogram was one of the things that I liked when I took the trade.  There were three bullish divergences, then a cross above the signal line.  That's tricky when a stock is in a downtrend, like SIRI, but with the Wolfe Wave possibility, it looked promising.  Often, it works.  This one didn't.

MACD divergences is also one of my favorite, that's the first one I'm checking before triggering my trade but i'm confirming that with moving averages along with the prices & also one of my favorites the Wilder's DMI (ADX)

As of now I don't see any bullishness for SIRI but bearishness 

Ps. check out the 2nd chart before SIRI dived.

Goodluck,
Alister

Quote from: Terlisa on February 28, 2006, 10:23:28 PM

MACD divergences is also one of my favorite, that's the first one I'm checking before triggering my trade but i'm confirming that with moving averages along with the prices & also one of my favorites the Wilder's DMI (ADX)

Alister,

Thanks for your nice charts.  I like them a lot.  Applause.

I saw that Bearish Cross of the 50/200DMAs in SIRI the day before I bought it, but I'll tell you why I still took the trade.  Sometimes, that "sell" signal shows up near a bottom, and it's actually a great buy.  On occasion, by the time the 50/200DMAs make a Bullish Cross, the stock already has had a good rally. 

I'll show you a great example of that on the chart below.  Two days prior to the 2005 low for the year in the QQQQ, the 50/200 DMAs made a Bearish Cross (the first vertical black line).  That was a great buy!  The 50/200DMAs didn't make a Bullish Cross until two days after the Inverse H&S breakout in July (second vertical black line). 

I'm glad to see that you're having success with the Directional Movement Indicator.  I played with that one for a long time, using ADX, then ADXR, then using both of those...then combining it with Aroon...I didn't have any luck with it. 



Thanks again for all of your nice charts.

Quote from: Terlisa on February 24, 2006, 10:13:11 PM

I still believe SIRI will go down below $5.. so let's get it on!! let's play with the BEARS

SIRI went down @ $4.86 this thing is so bearish right now
Melf Elf & Calven r u guys in the short side?

Nope im definately not on the short side - just on the sidelines waiting to go long..

I think I may have found my entry - see chart below - Thoughts???

cal 

Quote from: calven on March 06, 2006, 12:58:01 AM
Nope im definately not on the short side - just on the sidelines waiting to go long..

I think I may have found my entry - see chart below - Thoughts???

Maybe Calven... maybe

There is another support level... just a little bit above $4 ....
If i don't see any positive action on the weekly chart there is no buying for me

Goodluck

SIRI --- nowhere to go but DOWN... bears too strong (trade with the stronger)... i'll try to cover my short @ 4.00 if i have the chance

Hey Terlisa, I follow this one pretty close and I had taken your advice a ways back and went to the sideline. Thanks for your valuable advice $$$ (Appl). This stock is perplexing because with the intense coverage and incredible potentia,l people are in my mind, playing this fairly conservatively. $4.00 dollars would appear to be the next stop, and I just wonder (guessing) that when this turns up, it will turn up hard. The risk/reward potential here seems quite high and I look forward to jumping aboard.

Thanks again for your reviews.

uc.

Sirius Radio on the move with the news:

Friday March 17, 1:12 pm ET 
Sirius Satellite Radio Shares Climb After Deal Announced With Volkswagen


NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. rose Friday after Volkswagen announced a deal that will make Sirius the auto maker's sole satellite radio provider for U.S. vehicles through 2012.
ADVERTISEMENT


In midday trading, Sirius shares climbed 29 cents, or 6.4 percent, to $4.80 on the Nasdaq. Over the past 52 weeks, the stock has traded between $4.36 and $7.98 per share.

Volkswagen will offer Sirius beginning with its 2007 model year vehicles, including its Audi brand cars, and said it expects to install Sirius radio receivers in about 80 percent of Volkswagen brand vehicles.

In addition, the auto maker will offer three months of free Sirius service.

Financial terms of the deal were not disclosed.

Analyst Kit Spring of Stifel Nicolaus said that although Volkswagen and Audi account for a relatively small share of the American car market, the fact that Volkswagen is immediately equipping 80 percent of its 2007 vehicles is significant.

"We believe this is further evidence for investors that satellite radio is indeed going standard in new cars by early next decade," Spring wrote in a note to investors.

Barton Crockett of JPMorgan called the deal a "modest positive" for Sirius, saying that despite Volkswagen and Audi's minimal share of U.S. market, the agreement does boost Sirius' market share to 39 percent, compared with larger rival XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc.'s 58 percent.

But analyst Jonathan A. Jacoby of Bank of America said the market is overreacting to the deal and he will continue to recommend the purchase of XM shares over Sirius.

"XM is the larger company and retail share is beginning to return to XM," Jacoby wrote in a note to clients. "In addition, XM has the more leverageable expense model."

Jacoby also said that although the financial terms of the deal were not released, he estimates that it was a more expensive deal than other recent agreements XM made with Toyota and Hyundai.

"Furthermore, we worry that a high-cost deal could concern investors on future deals (in other words when current deals have to be renegotiated)," Jacoby said.

SIRI broke the downward trend on the news today.  I've been watching for months and entered @ 4.76.  I believe we have strong support at 4.35,  with some medium term resistance at 5.70 and strong resistance at 7.88

Any objective comments welcome!

Quote from: usedcasting on March 16, 2006, 08:40:21 AM
Hey Terlisa, I follow this one pretty close and I had taken your advice a ways back and went to the sideline. Thanks for your valuable advice $$$ (Appl). This stock is perplexing because with the intense coverage and incredible potentia,l people are in my mind, playing this fairly conservatively. $4.00 dollars would appear to be the next stop, and I just wonder (guessing) that when this turns up, it will turn up hard. The risk/reward potential here seems quite high and I look forward to jumping aboard.

Thanks again for your reviews.

uc.

UC,

Are you planning to enter in SIRI for the LONG side? if u do it's not time yet in my opinion.
Bears still winning on the battle... SIRI's charts says all..

Goodluck!!