3SOF

MKTX
GEPT
VLG
PGN
CACS
DIET
NEGI
AES
OMNI
MDU
HEC
IVAN*

ILNP is like MSEV in that it has had a series of ascending triangle breakouts.

Hmm..those may be more of symm triangle or mini asc triangle breakouts.... we may want to focus more on 2-6  month formations....

Both those look good though!

Applaud Calven.... watch out on IVAN we gonna have a breakout on that Ascending Triangle tomorrow.. he he..

Quote from: calven on March 02, 2006, 11:38:26 PM
Hmm..those may be more of symm triangle or mini asc triangle breakouts.... we may want to focus more on 2-6  month formations....

Both those look good though!

I see what you mean.  Let's see what I can find with a longer time frame...

For those who are knew to ascending triangles here is a decent explanation - http://chart-patterns.netfirms.com/ascending.htm

The basic concept is BUY ONLY*** AFTER THE TOP TRENDLINE IS BROKEN

Basic Diagram Below -

Basonista, Calven and Alister,

Wow, guys, great thread!  Applaud all of you.

I'd be fairly rigid about the top of the Ascending Triangle being flat, like Calven's diagram just above this post.  If we draw a flat trendline that cuts very much through prices, we don't know whether or not the breakout is reliable

If we know that the data points on the horizontal line are, for example, 50.01, 50.03 and 50.02, we know that we've probably got a very nice breakout on a print of 50.04, particularly when the stock starts flying on volume.

If the data points on the horizontal line are more skewed, like 50.01, 50.49, and 50.25, we don't want to draw a horizontal line through 50.01 and assume that a print of 50.02 is an Ascending Triangle breakout.  It isn't.  We've still got resistance at 50.25 and 50.49. 

Just my opinion, but most of the charts posted don't look like Ascending Triangles because the tops of the patterns aren't flat enough.  The data points are too skewed.

MKTX and GEPT - If you connect the actual highs, they look more like Rising Channels.

These don't look flat enough:

IMNR
VRDI
DIET
CACS
HEC
IVAN*

* Recent action in IVAN on an intraday chart does look like an Ascending Triangle, though.  I'll have to download it and see what those data points are.

The best looking possibilities (I have to download the charts) appear to be:

VLG
PGN
MDU (I like all of those hits to the up trendline)
OMNI

There's an old saw, "Three times, then through," meaning that if we have three data points at the top of the Ascending Triangle, then we breakout above it, that should be good for a rally.  That doesn't always work, nor do we always have to have the three hits to get to a target, but overall, I'd say three hits is more meaningful than two. 

Last comment for now: After a breakout, if the stock closes back inside the pattern, I wouldn't automatically assume that the breakout has failed.  That's not an infrequent occurence.  Often, the stock goes back to tag the 50DMA, for example, then continues higher, or forms another pattern, then continues higher.

A recent example of that is NVAX.  It broke out of an Ascending Triangle on December 9.  The top of the Triangle was exactly flat.  3.94 and 3.94.

NVAX fell shy of the target, came back into the pattern, formed a double-bottom at 3.65 and 3.66, formed a bigger pattern (Symmetrical Triangle), then made the Ascending Triangle target and the Symmetrical Triangle target.

To defend against what a might be a failed breakout, I use a stop below the last low, prior to the pattern breakout.  In the NVAX example, the stop was the low of 3.45 on December 8, the day before the breakout.

Hey guys, reading up on this thread with much interest.  Not too sure if I see some of the ascending triangles, but there are a few in there that I particularly like.  I agree with Melf Elf's final comment about ascending triangles - they can often pull back into the triangle, to test the ascending support again - Melf do you remember when GTE did this after I first bought it in the 1.50s?  I sold on the break of horizontal support, and then had to chase it as it did break out, and went all the way up to $4!!

Having a look at these charts, I particularly like OMNIs, but it looks like a cup & handle to me - is hard to tell whether the volume is right from the chart, but it looks ready to break, possibly even today - would provide a good buy on the break of the flag formation, I think.  I'll post the chart, even though I know the thread is on ascending triangles (sorry )

VLG is another very nice ascending triangle, but volume is so low!!  What do you think?  This could result in an explosiive breakout, but it concerns me not to have much volume to buy/sell into.  But it looks ready to go any day too.

I will keep looking for more, I'm sure I've seen lots lately, just have to remember where

Quote from: ScottishTrader on March 03, 2006, 06:08:49 AM
I agree with Melf Elf's final comment about ascending triangles - they can often pull back into the triangle, to test the ascending support again - Melf do you remember when GTE did this after I first bought it in the 1.50s?  I sold on the break of horizontal support, and then had to chase it as it did break out, and went all the way up to $4!!

Scotsman,

Boy, I sure do remember that, and it still haunts me.   

I didn't think that little Ascending Triangle was nearly good enough after the long downtrend, and I couldn't have been more wrong.  That's a great example.  Applause. I put a red arrow on the chart where GTE went back below the Ascending Triangle breakout on October 18.

I should have kept watching it closely, because other patterns that develped after that little Ascending Triangle helped to launch the big rally of almost 200% in just two months (from the 1.14 low, it was a 282% rally) .

There's another great example of a bigger 3+ month Ascending Triangle on that chart, like Calven and Basonista were wanting.  "The bigger the base, the better the breakout."

The top of that pattern isn't exactly horizontal.  The data points are 3.40 and 3.30, and there are only two data points, so that's when we have to make a judgment call.  I think the fact that it "looks flat," and the fact that it contained two other nested bullish patterns strongly argues for playing it as an Ascending Triangle breakout. 

On that bigger Ascending Triangle breakout, the breakout held and GTE never came back into the pattern.

Quote
VLG is another very nice ascending triangle, but volume is so low!!  What do you think?  This could result in an explosiive breakout, but it concerns me not to have much volume to buy/sell into.  But it looks ready to go any day too.

Most of them are much too illiquid for me.  VLG looked promising and was the only one that was liquid enough, but after downloading it, I don't think it's an Ascending Triangle.  I'll post that next.

EDIT: Sorry, not VLG.  I didn't download that one.  I meant PGN.

On PGN, I'd have to vote no on it being an Ascending Triangle.

The 46.10...46.00 highs are flat enough.  That looked fine, but after that second data point at 46.00 at the top of the Ascending Triangle, PGN shouldn't have broken the up trendline, and it definitely shouldn't have made a lower low.

The pattern should "coil."  The lows should be higher and higher prior to the breakout, like that pattern description that Basonista gave us on page 1 of this thread:

"Let's imagine that a stock rallied to the $50 level and found resistance.  Sellers offer the stock and there is profit-taking.  Buyers retreat or realize they don't have to bid aggressively for the stock when there is a ready supply at $50.  The stock declines till bargain-hunters come in and the stock finds support.  What follows is a series of rallies to the $50 supply line or area and subsequent corrections.  As the buyers accumulate stock and the supply is reduced, the corrections don't go as deep.  The buyers must raise their bids to get the stock they want as the supply is reduced."

Sorry, I'm hurrying before the market opens.  I don't think that PGN chart posted.  Try again.

   Does anyone think CNES has started an Ascending channel?  The golden Cross is about to occurr

Melf Elf - PGN looks valid on the 3 year weekly chart, and its a BIG ascending triangle too!!!  A lot of hits both on resistance at $45 and the ascending support line - we are a long way below support here, but if it breaks $45 to the upside, it scould be a big move out of a very long ter trading range - whaddya think???

Quote from: Terlisa on March 02, 2006, 11:46:03 PM
Applaud Calven.... watch out on IVAN we gonna have a breakout on that Ascending Triangle tomorrow.. he he..

Be careful with Ivan I have been bitten a few times.Fund. are bad.12 months sales 27.4 m and income - 21.8 m.

Quote from: ScottishTrader on March 03, 2006, 08:33:06 AM
$45 to the upside, it scould be a big move out of a very long ter trading range - whaddya think???

Scotsman,

I have a problem seeing that as an Ascending Triangle.   

The best that I can come up with is that it looks like two attempts to form Ascending Triangles, but both failed.

PGN has been range bound between about $40 and $48.  It still could have a nice rally is it takes out
$48, but I think we could do a lot better, as far as Ascending Triangles go. 

Like your GTE.  That was a nice one.