3SOF

CCBL looks to be in a good 6 month ascending triangle pattern.Also it is showing cup and a handle 1 month chart.

Ascending Triangle on the Hourly Chart in Eldorado Gold (EGO). 

This pattern is forming at the bottom of a Bull Flag on the daily chart, which has a technical breakout today on the print of 4.70 (see daily chart, next post).

The technical breakout of the Bull Flag for today was a print of 4.70.  The high today is 4.73.
This looks like a nice bullish consolidation breakout.  A print of 4.77, above the top of the Symmetrical Triangle, would look real nice.

EGO has backed off from the breakout and currently is BID 4.64...ASK 4.65.

Is there a reason that most of the charts you show here are natural resource stocks, or just a coincidence?  Oil and commodities usually move concurrently, in a channel.  Are we setting up for a big breakout in these stocks?  Would you see the same pattern in say the gold index or the oil index?

I gotta agree with ScottishTrader on PGN...

Looking at the 4 year chart I see a BIG ascending triangle with a neckline (resistance line) at 44.80 - 3 touches

The support line is not nearly as sharp. The one steep drop to 33.64 breaks the support line but I still dont think it necessarily wrecks the pattern.

I see PGN being a buy at 45.25 (and I plan on buying there) - comments MUCH appreciated!


The other purpose of this thread is to submit ascending triangles and debate what is and isnt a correct ASC TRI. Glad to have you two fine gentlemen aboard!


As for VLG - it is probably my favorite ascending triangle play at this time. Although volume is very weak I dont see this being very risky. Fundamentals in the stock are outstanding It also has a 3 year solid uptrend so even if I were to get burned on this, I think it would recover in a matter of months.

Thanks for contributing guys! (applause)

cal 

Quote from: snowcat on March 03, 2006, 04:01:06 PM
Is there a reason that most of the charts you show here are natural resource stocks, or just a coincidence?  Oil and commodities usually move concurrently, in a channel.  Are we setting up for a big breakout in these stocks?  Would you see the same pattern in say the gold index or the oil index?

Excellent point! I honestly didnt even realize these stocks had that in common. You make some interesting points.....

I searched for these stocks via stockfetcher. I don't currently own any of them...

Id hopefully like the board to collectively come up with a "TOP 5" ascending triangles list...

I submitted about 10 candidates and from there I think we need to filter out the best.

cal 

I would also encourage you guys to use "Volume By Price" when looking for ascending triangles....it can help in determining just how valid the resistance levels are.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HCBK&p=D&yr=1&mn=11&dy=0&id=p25946818964

Melf could I get your thoughts on HEC and AES as ascending triangles?

Thanks,
Cal

Hey guys, I'm pretty new to TA but was wondering if you would consider EXFO an ascending triangle? Thanks for your help and opinions. 

Definately an ascending triangle - but we are looking for a little longer of a triangle. Preferably greater than 3 months....


Looks like a nice stock though!

Quote from: statement00 on March 03, 2006, 07:01:17 PM
Hey guys, I'm pretty new to TA but was wondering if you would consider EXFO an ascending triangle? Thanks for your help and opinions. 

Statement00,

Agree with Calven, that's definitely an Ascending Triangle.  Applause.

Those little ones are nice short-term plays.  To get your target, take the high of the pattern minus the low, then add it back to the high of the pattern.

Example (I don't know what the exact data points of your pattern are):

If the top of the Ascending Triangle data points are 6.72 and 6.75, I use the lower (conservative) number to derive the target, even though you actually want to see 6.75 get taken out to the upside for the breakout (a print of 6.76). 

When 6.76 gets printed...

6.72 - 6.00 (the low of the pattern) = 0.72 points.

0.72 points added back to 6.72 = Target: 7.74 is IN PLAY

Don't be rigid about targets getting MADE exactly.  Sometimes, they miss by a little, sometimes the stock goes much high.  It's just the target for that particular pattern, and targets only are "what we're aiming for," or what price that pattern breakout suggests.  No guarantees, of course.

If you get "close enough" to your target, take the money.  We don't want to step over dollars to wind up stooping for nickels.

Nice job, and good luck!

Quote from: calven on March 03, 2006, 04:37:20 PM
Melf could I get your thoughts on HEC and AES as ascending triangles?

Cal,

Neither of those is an Ascending Triangle. 

I'd stick to what you said about Wolfe Waves: "If it doesnt look like this chart (the example you posted of an Ascending Triangle back on page 1 or 2), it isn't an Ascending Triangle."

The top really needs to be "almost" exactly flat, and the lows need to be "ascendling."  HEC, for example, looks more like a rectangle. 

There's some wiggle room with the "flat" top, like on the GTE chart where the highs were about ten cents apart, but the overall pattern should be obvious, like Statement00's short-term Ascending Triangle, otherwise, we're "seeing Ascending Triangles that simply aren't there," like we were doing with Wolfe Waves. 

"If the top of the pattern isn't obviously FLAT, it isn't an Ascending Triangle."

"The Ascending line should have the 'higher high' coiling look to it."  (On some of the charts we've looked at, like HEC, the Ascending trendline has been much too flat).

Mind you, that doesn't mean that any of the stocks presented in this thread aren't going higher.  They just aren't Ascending Triangles.

Scotsman,

I thought of one of the other examples of an Ascending Triangle that appeared to have failed, but worked out fine: JDSU.

Thai and I discussed this one in December, when JDSU fell back below the November Ascending Triangle breakout.  It also broke below a validated ascending trendline (three or more hits to a trendline validates it), which I never like to see.

If we used a close below the low, prior to the Ascending Triangle breakout, as our stop, it works out fine.  Granted, it's a real knuckle-biter when JDSU tests that 2.34 low in late December and violates it by a few cents, but it holds on a closing basis, then the stock breaks out of a Bullish Falling Wedge, and both targets got MADE.

Good lesson for me on JDSU (and, on GTE).  I'm going to have to try to be a little more flexible with my stops, and give the pattern breakouts a chance, even though they look like they don't deserve it, acting sloppy like that.

I'm going to observe how often using the low prior to the breakout as a stop works out when a stock comes back inside a pattern breakout.  We've had a TON of those situations, haven't we? 

It worked out on GTE and JDSU.  But, we've got to have a stop, in case a break back inside a pattern really is a failure.  We've had lots of those, too.

 

How well does CTE look here.
Thanks

uc.

Calven and Melf Elf,

Thanks for the insight, especially about how to estimate a target, it is greatly appreciated. This is an excellent thread also.