3SOF

David & Frederick,
You are doing a great job. I am learning from your open analysis of the stocks. I appreciate your generosity.

Puenthouse please observe civility and read the forum rules!

Thanks.

David its ok. We understand your decision. Looking forward to your exciting 1million board picks. That may be something which small traders like me could be happily trading. 

Quote from: David Randolph on June 23, 2005, 06:10:33 PM

I sold GLGS near the close for a whopping 28% loss. With 6.66% of portfolio invested in it I Of course the stock was to be sold immediately after perception of a wrong analysis (I told I would do so if I were alone in this stock). I bought at $1.85, then found out I was wrong and the next open was $1.72. I could have lost just 7% had I sold at that open. But as anyone here I'm learning, and I know that in order not to forget big lessons I must take a good size charge. Off course, seeing so many of you guys hooked up on this because of my analysis made me go down in sympathy ... the captain is always the last man to leave the sinking ship.

Gosh, David, I sympathize. 

You chose to play The Sacrificial Lamb in this trade, and it wasn't necessary.  It's a "Phantom Sacrific,."  especially if your Body Of Work isn't taken into account, and appreciated.

Life deals us enough pain.  We don't need to administer pain to ourselves.  You admitted that your analysis was wrong.  At that point, everyone is on his/her own.  In addition to having great insights into the market, you are an extraordinarily kind, generous man. Almost to a fault, but I don't mean that as a negative criticism.    

If there's anything for YOU to learn about this trade, it isn't about money, in my opinion.  Don't give yourself away so completely that it drains your energy.  You are taking FAR too much responsibility for the mistakes of others. 

Thank you for creating this wonderful forum, David.  I applaud you.

David & Frederick,
You guys had a great ideal when you came up with 3StocksOnFire.I'm proud to be a member.Thank you.
Thank you...starfire,for your comment.Let's do be civil.We are not here to bash each other.As Frederick Ramsburgh has said,T2T.I would hope that we all could learn from each other.There are good stock heads here.I know I have learned things already from other members.I welcome the opportunity.
If I make a decision to follow another member's recommendation and buy a stock,that is my decision.If the trade goes sour and it becomes evedent that this trade is going to be a loss.Then I am not going to come back on you and bash you with foul words.It was your decision to make your buy, and it was my decision to make my buy.The other member did not twist my arm and say here you must buy.We must accept the outcome on any given trade, win or loose.
I hear talk on the topic boards about the business of average down in your buying.I would never take this approach in buying stocks,and never would advise any trader to do so.I am 50 years old,no need to hide my age.I have been interested in the stock market since I was a young teenager.I have been trading in stocks since the age of 20,I have built a nice portfolio over those years.I say ,I have learned things from other members here.It is true, I have.We never are to old to learn new tricks.I have read a number of business and investment books over the years.The best one IMHO was called "How to Trade in Stocks"by J.Livermore.From this book I adopted his method of averaging up,or pyramiding.I always in my trading average up...."not down"..
This is a great website with some very knowledgeable stock pickers.So if a trade goes red,let's not take to the underhanded tactics of those other message boards. We all can learn from each other and extend help to our fellow member,I know we each have a little to offer.
So let's be civil and make 3StocksOnFire even better than it is.
Best Regards....and good luck in all your trades.

Hello David and Frederick,

I have been lurking on this site for quite sometime and have been amazed at the level of talent here.  I am now ready to follow some of your trades with real money.  I have 2 concerns...

1) I'd rather stay away from penny stocks due to liquidity reasons.  6.66% is a great idea but often times I am afraid it would require me to purchase a massive number of shares that I am afraid would be hard to sell when it comes time to do so.  Do you think it's wise if someone follows only your non-penny trades?

2) I think a big part of good trading is to do so in the context of the broader market.  Would it be possible for you to comment from time to time what your thoughts are on the overall market.  I read nearly every posts made here each day

I understand that the biggest things one can take away from your 3SF portfolio is the trading strategy and the importance of diversification, not necessarily each individual picks.  However many of your picks are golden and quite impressive.  Please keep them coming 

Thanks for your wonderful forum.

Hi netfishmademerich,

Our strategy is based on a 15 stock portfolio, where we mix a majority of regular stocks, with some pennys... the result is based on this... not only the pennies, and not only the big board stocks

I don't personally recommend anybody to follow our picks, but I think our trading ideas and strategies are the best asset we do have to offer.

About the broader market, yes, you are right, we should make more regular analysis on it... I used to be an active NDX Futures trader, and I can start making some analysis on the index. I'm sure David will also post some comments on the indices.

regards !

short term gains newsletter alert-GLGS
mention in a recent bulletin at greenbackers com.....June 22, 2005 3:01pm es


attracted to:


not much movement from prior mentions, however FNSR and DFIB are trading solid, and have refused to pullback at all.
dfib - 1.05 0.05 100 + 1.05 1.06 17 X23 1.08 1.01 782,147 NASDAQ NMS
fnsr + 1.11 0.03 100 + 1.10 1.11 342 X718 1.11 1.08 1,979,129 NASDAQ NMS

2:21pm est

frankly just about all the risk has been taken out of FNSR.....it might take a while to rebound, but it is a good least downside risk candidate for the more defensive porfolios....


GW has actually upped about a nickel from prior in fairly steady fashion, so there is going conviction 7.15 will hold......stock had run up to 8 recently.....so entry at 7.20 does represent a 10% pullback on this oil drilling provider play......suggest review of their prior qtrly 10q rpt...excerpt from it:



time to take notice of NMGC recent uptrending....it's for real.....to .70 into the month a reasonable target....explosion potential.....go back and review their earnings..


although only seeing slight upside in CMGI daylong, the stock is acting considerably stronger then it has been in over a week.....don't think we're going trading in 1.80 range any longer......growing confidence it will see a rally back above 2 into the month....








best upsides


failed to mention DCEL as best upside mention prior......solid uppng into the afternoon also...
At 12:16PM ET: 4.35 0.34 (8.48%)






20+

unocal stock watch...recall cramer bullish input yesterday.






5-10



recall buy on dips below 9 for MLNM and 7.20 for GW.....updates
gw - 7.21 0.06 200 + 7.20 7.21 65 X47 7.32 7.16 1,852,100 AMEX
mlnm + 9.15 -0.16 1000 - 9.14 9.15 127 X33 9.43 8.88 6,885,718

2:12pm est








2-3


EXXA has been upping from 1.60 to 2 in thelast two weeks.....a colleague of ours John Soria has been pounding the table on them along the way...comments below



noteworthy news from earlier we failed forward
InPlay: Therma-Wave retains Needham & Company as Strategic Financial Advisor to review strategic objectives
Briefing.com (Wed 8:30am)





1-2



SVVS afternoon pullback support at 1.10 is 14% off of intraday highs
svvs + 1.11 0.08 100 - 1.10 1.11 140 X51 1.26 1.05 2,020,979

2:39pm est






GLGS two day extreme pullback following runup to 2.35
GLGS 1:25pm 1.45 -0.27 -15.70% 1,167,244 78,871 1.72 1.42 - 1.88




under 1


NMGC seeing another pickup......stock has been in a three week uptrend from .40 since bullish earnings...recall pullback support comments at .50 last week..
nmgc + 0.64 0.06 1000 + 0.63 0.64 3 X346 0.65 0.58 666,075 NASDAQ NMS


6/22/2005 2:51:31 PM (EST






gb porfolio:

we unloaded the rest of our ZAPZ position ast 1.66 earlier.....topping out yesterday became increasingly evident after lack of follow through into today...


we re-entered GW at 7.23 within the last hr. buy/hold strategy for swinging back to upper 7 range....... stop loss at 7 / initial target 7.60.

I could be wrong but my opinion is that selling now doesn't make much sense (except if you absolutely need the cash).

This company is coming up with news every week. It's as simple as this:
we bought on a high (not very smart but we have been fooled) and now we are selling on a low.!??!

The only reason to sell is if we think GLGS  is a complete scam. If you don't, they could come up with an update on their GCS-100 even today (or next week). That would bring the price up in no time. Then I would sell if, again, I think this is not a company for me.
But why selling on a low? (also check the other 3SOF stocks, the market in Summer is always in trouble, so switching quick to something else could not be very smart either)

Hi Frank,

I hear (er, read) what you're saying. But how do we know where the bottom (low) really lies? Therein lies our challenge. I've been hurt by the downward spiral where I've assumed the stock cannot go any lower - and it does! Maybe it will come back later. But if it continues to drop, and you've already taken your lumps (loss), you can always go back in if you want at a later date. In 90% of my post-mortem analysis, I find that if I had sold the stock at a disciplined stop limit, I would have made more money on rebound stocks (assuming I re-purchased at a lower low).

I am a great believer (now) in putting in stop losses and sticking to rules. I've lost waaaay too much money hoping for rebounds....

Thunderbunny, at this point I would do some chart analysis.
Last Friday's news pushed up the stock from $1.25 to about 1.75 where the mess began. Now we should stay in the 1.20-130 area till next news (if they don't take too long).
But if you don't keep an eye on this one (and you sell at 1.25) when you'll try to get back in it will be already too late.

If nothing else, the selling appears to have slowed.  Hopefully we're finding a bottom.

Hi Frank,

I think you're absolutely correct about selling at $1.25.

I bought initially at $1.80 (2k shares). So if I sold at a 7% loss, say about $1.67, I'd lose $260 (plus commissions). If I then decided to buy back in at $1.25, and the stock jumps back to $1.80, I will have made $840 ($1,100 gain - $260 loss). If I just held on, and the stock goes back to $1.80, I will have made nothing (and still be out the commission).

Make sense? 

Looking at my screen in the last few hours, many smart people bought 12K, 10K, 15K, shares at these prices (while the small guys were selling)...

The market perceives the value of GLGS is $1.23 and here is why:
BOSTON--(BUSINESS WIRE)--May 23, 2005--GlycoGenesys, Inc. (Nasdaq: GLGS - News), a biotechnology company focused on carbohydrate-based drug development, today announced that it has closed on the second tranche of a total $6,500,000 equity offering to institutions and accredited investors. The Company issued 4,500 shares of convertible, redeemable Series D Preferred Stock, currently convertible into 4,500,000 shares of common stock, and warrants to purchase 4,500,000 shares of common stock currently at $1.23 per share for gross proceeds of $4,500,000. The terms of the Series D Preferred Stock and warrants were described in a Current Report on Form 8-K that the Company filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on March 8, 2005.

That was true 4 weeks ago (May 23rd).
After that, there have been 4 very bullish PR. That's why I would think today's price is a must buy.