3SOF

Here are couple of important press releases.

VIENNA, Va., Feb. 21 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- CEL-SCI Corporation (Amex: CVM - News) announces positive results from a long-term follow-up study of head & neck cancer patients treated with its drug Multikine® in a Phase II clinical trial.

VIENNA, Va., Dec. 6 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- On December 5, 2005, CEL-SCI CORPORATION (Amex: CVM - News) announced that it had signed a Cooperative Agreement with the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), an institute of the National Institutes of Health of the U.S. government, to test CEL-SCI's patented anti-infective drug CEL-1000 against the avian (bird) flu virus H5N1 in animal models. The testing will be conducted to determine whether CEL-1000 could be used as a potential treatment and/or preventive agent against this virus.

Fundamentals by Market Guide

* Outstanding Shares : 74.2 mil
* Float : 6.7 mil
* Market Value : $56.41
* Debt : $0.00
* Cash on hand : $1.89 mil

Chart



* PROC is Bullish
* CVAD is Bullish
* OBV is Bullish
* RSI is Bullish
* MACD is Bullish
* MA(10) is Bullish
* MA(50) is Bullish
* MACD (weekly) is Bullish
* Stochastic(5) is Bullish
* Price Break (3) is Bullish

Looking Ahead

So, why is CVM getting hot?  
IMO, There's something boiling behind the doors.
In next few days, IMO, they will announce FDA approval of go ahead of trial III for Multikine.
or(and), positive result from anti-infective drug CEL-1000 against the avian (bird) flu virus H5N1.

The volume has not picked up yet, but once it does, this stock can gain big time in one day.
That could happend in couple of weeks. IMO

Volume is picking up! ( 830,000) +9.21%, +0.07

This stock never made daily volume of 2 mil.  But, looks like it will break that mark this week.
Since all CVM message boards are very quite, I assume that there aren't any day traders involved.  So, it is being accumulated.(IMO)
Once the day traders jumps into this stock (or +2mil volume) with or without PR, this will gain 30 to 40% in a day.

Until then I am holding my 40k shares.

As a speculator, I need to speculate to make money.

We had this news on CVM and the stock has been rising ever since:


Multikine Treatment Increases Survival in Cancer Patients

I think there's plenty of room for speculation here, since this company has just $62.35M in market cap.

Some more highlights:

- «The follow-up study indicated that Multikine treatment resulted in a substantial increase in the survival of patients. In addition, Multikine treatment also improved local regional control of the patients' tumors. Improved local regional control of the tumor is considered by many surgeons and oncologists to be an important measurement of the success of a head & neck cancer drug. Both survival and local regional control of the tumor are stated endpoints in CEL-SCI's planned Phase III clinical trial.»

- «Maximilian de Clara, President of CEL-SCI, states, "These results suggest that Multikine has the potential to bring much needed benefit to patients with head & neck cancer, a disease that has significant morbidity and mortality and for which there has been little improvement in therapy over the last 20 years. We are very excited by these results and hope to repeat these very promising results in our Phase III clinical trial."»

- «CEL-SCI received the go-ahead for its proposed Phase III trial from the Canadian drug regulatory authority in August 2005. The same proposed Phase III trial was submitted to and discussed with the United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in two separate End of Phase II meetings held during 2005. Following each of these meetings the FDA requested that additional information be provided. CEL-SCI has recently completed the submission of all of the additional information the FDA requested and awaits the FDA's response.»

- «Head and neck cancer is an aggressive cancer that affects about 500,000 people per annum worldwide. About 92% of those cases are outside of the U.S., and about two thirds of all cases present with advanced disease.»

CVM was an out of favor biotechnology company. Possibly this news has the potential to put it back in favor again, to a $150 to $200M market cap, over the short term (say, 2 or 3 months).

Unfortunately I don't know enough to judge if these findings are truly important or not. But I know the stock is rising and volume is also rising, so the trend is bullish. The trend is my friend and I'll go with it, buying CVM around today's open for the Stocks on Fire Portfolio, 6.66% of capital as usual.

What do you know? CVM was up so much and bingo, up again yesterday !

Volume also increased to 1.8 million shares.

Even on a short term basis I should let the profits run, perhaps I have a big winner here, and the recent rise will be a minuscule thing down on the chart.

Price and volume rising tells me I should continue holding, because higher prices will come.

gap up?!?   

There is an exclusive interview with the CEO on this website: wallst.net

Good Pick David !

Quote from: danman3459 on March 01, 2006, 08:17:35 AM
gap up?!?   

When you wrote «gap-up» I thought I should change my analysis and recommend selling the stock, because usually a steep run up like this ends with a gap up.

But I thought: «I don't know what the man said on the interview, this thing can go sharply higher since the market cap is so low, I'll better stay the course».

Then I went out for lunch and went to Stocks on Fire LLC office (actually now I work mostly at home), and saw the stock up 15%. I made a scroll up on this thread and looked at the descending trendline on the medium term chart:

«Damn it, we hit resistance, this thing won't hold».

But, I couldn't do anything, since 3 Stocks on Fire is an end of the day trading service. I forgot to consider that resistance line and give specific instructions to sell at it, so I held.

The stock collapsed from the highs to close at $0.89. The correction was probably due, because the stock was extremely overbought.

So I consider this «normal market behaviour», or «profit taking», as you like. Market cap is still just $66M, but it went to $79M intraday. I would say that if this company went over $100M it would be «fully valued», or «overvalued», with the information I have now.

I tell you this: if I can sell at $1 today, I'll do it. Otherwise, I'll continue holding.

Sell order at $1.00 should be given yesterday!!

Another trade which turned a gain to a loss.

This should never happen.

If you have a gain of at least 5%, should not let the gain slepped away.

Shawfund, you think CVM is done going up ??

With stocks gained 100% in few days, most will dump the stock to take profit.

Risks will be much higher buying after it gained 100% in short term.

But may be, it will bounce back after retracement.

What I am saying is that we should not let the profit slepped away if it is greater than 5%.

shawFund is right, we all know that. But practice is often harder than theory.

Of course I should have sold it at $1, since now it is at $0.78, but should I sell now is the important question. I don't think I should, as the stock is trading at its 50% retracement level, after a quite normal pullback of an oversold condition.

I think CVM will bounce back and possibly even make new highs above $1.06.

I'll continue holding the stock for now.

Some news came out........

CEL-SCI Corporation Releases Letter to Shareholders
Wednesday March 8, 11:46 am ET


VIENNA, Va., March 08 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- The following letter is being released by CEL-SCI CORPORATION (Amex: CVM - News) to its shareholders:
ADVERTISEMENT


Dear Fellow Shareholders:

CEL-SCI set out to create a cancer therapy that would work with the body, not against it; a cancer therapy that would help patients conquer their cancer with the first cancer treatment so that the cancer will not recur. We are pleased to report that recently analyzed follow-up data from the key Phase II clinical trial with our cancer drug Multikine® indicate that the drug had a substantial effect on the survival of the patients treated with it.

The long-term follow-up study of the head & neck cancer patients who received Multikine over 3 years ago showed a substantial improvement in both the survival rate and the local regional control of their tumors. The detailed results of this follow-up study are currently being prepared for publication in a scientific journal. These data, if confirmed in our planned Phase III clinical trial, would represent a huge step forward in the treatment of head & neck cancer patients.

The benefit of survival to the patient is obvious and survival is the gold standard of cancer drug development. Increased local regional control refers to the increased ability to delay the recurrence of the tumor in the head & neck area. If a drug can delay the recurrence of the tumor, the patient will have much improved life for the period during which there is no recurrence of disease. Clearly this is a meaningful benefit to the every-day life of a cancer patient, and in particular to a head & neck cancer patient, where local control often means preserving the ability to swallow, breathe and talk without assistance.

In our October 2005 letter to the shareholders we highlighted the three major contributions Multikine makes in fighting cancer and postulated that these contributions should lead to an increase in the success rate of the cancer treatment. We now have Phase II data that shows improved local regional control of the tumor as well as increased survival and we are therefore able to support our original hypothesis. Our next goal is to repeat these results in the planned Phase III clinical trial where the endpoints are the same as those that we measured in the follow-up study: local regional control of the tumor and survival.

The planned Phase III study already has been cleared for go-ahead by the Canadian regulators and CEL-SCI is currently awaiting word from the U.S. FDA. Since most of the head & neck cancer patients are outside of the U.S., we hope to conduct one worldwide Phase III study, including the countries of our Asian partner Orient EuroPharma, for drug approval.

We proceed on one simple assumption. If we can show clinical benefit by demonstrating increased survival or improved local regional control, or better yet, both, Multikine should end up being used as first-line therapy in head & neck cancer, 5% of all cancers worldwide. Ultimately it may even be useful in treating many other cancers as well. And, it cannot be stated often enough, Multikine has been essentially non-toxic. If we can achieve this, meeting worldwide demand for Multikine would likely become our challenge.

Let us again state the obvious: "If the cancer does not recur, you will have a much greater chance of survival." That is our goal and the reason for adding Multikine to the standard first-line cancer therapy.

On a different note, we reported late last year that CEL-SCI had signed an agreement with the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), whereby NIAID agreed to test our CEL-1000 drug against the avian flu virus in animal models, which are very hard to come by. CEL-1000 is very interesting because it has protected against different viruses and parasites in animal models. Such broad based protection by CEL-1000 would be very helpful against the avian flu virus, as it undergoes constant mutation.

After discussions with avian flu virus experts we have decided that more research in the area of the avian flu virus infection and treatment with CEL- SCI products can and should be done. In conjunction with these experts we have developed a plan to test CEL-SCI products against the avian flu virus. The testing performed under this plan will be in addition to the testing of CEL-1000 that is currently being done by the NIAID. Some of what we are doing and plan to be doing will be obvious, but a lot of it focuses on areas that have not yet been highlighted in the popular press as areas in need of help. We will update you in the future on this program as it progresses.


    We thank you for your support.

    Sincerely,

    Geert Kersten                            Maximilian de Clara
    Chief Executive Officer                  President


When used in this report, the words "intends," "believes," "anticipated" and "expects" and similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements. Such statements are subject to risks and uncertainties which could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected. Factors that could cause or contribute to such differences include, an inability to duplicate the clinical results demonstrated in clinical studies, timely development of any potential products that can be shown to be safe and effective, receiving necessary regulatory approvals, difficulties in manufacturing any of the Company's potential products, inability to raise the necessary capital and the risk factors set forth from time to time in CEL-SCI Corporation's SEC filings, including but not limited to its report on Form 10- K/A for the year ended September 30, 2004. The Company undertakes no obligation to publicly release the result of any revision to these forward- looking statements which may be made to reflect the events or circumstances after the date hereof or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events.

Hi Realdeal,

I read this one time, two times and three times and then I bought the stock. (I am a bit slow   )

This is a phase II study and we are still years away from Commercial launch. Here is the bad news. I don't think this company will survive till Commercial Launch

I think they will have been bought up long time before that.

Most major Pharma are desperate to add new drugs to their pipeline. They are facing increasing generic competition and they don't have drugs to replace the drugs that are facing competition. They have been sleeping while small biotechs have developed Cancer medicine and other drugs to highly profitable lethal diseases. They have instead been researching sleeping pills and headache tablets.

We all know Merck, their Market Cap is 76.3 billion. Eli Lilly's Market Cap is 63.9 billion. How many outside the medical and investing community knows about Amgen (market cap 91.1 Billion or Genentech market cap (87 Billion). The truth is that not many years ago Merck and Eli Lilly could easily have bought these companies.

CelSci's market cap is 61 million. Could it be multi billion dollar company. I don't know and I don't think we will ever know. I think they are going to be bought long before that.

I am most likely wrong but that doesn't matter too much because I am very comfortable holding the stock until we find out.

Mike

I'm glad I wasn't around when the stock dropped to $0.70 ... or I would feel even worse.

What matters now is it closed on a strong note, with volume above average. I'm glad Michael bought the stock. He knows a lot about drug companies 

I also read the news and I wish the company succeeds in its pursuit for a cancer treatment. If not the company, its product, owned by another company, as Michael says.

I know that to say this is boring, but stocks do not go up in a straight line. They often pullback (almost always) and then the trend continues. The trend on CVM is bullish and the market cap is quite low, if we consider the pursuit the company is involved. There's plenty of space for speculation, as the title of this thread implies.

It's getting harder and harder to buy and hold stocks for a period of time. Day trading and very short term position trading reigns supreme right now. I can be a day trader or a fast position trader, but only playing the game alone.

I know I should have sold above $1 and buy back below $0.80. But I didn't.

That's the past and nobody can change the past, so why should I think about it?

What matters is the current situation, and at this point I will continue holding CVM.

Not a particularly good day for CVM, but nothing has affected the short term pattern yet, which is still bullish. The stock had its first run, hit the resistance level and now it's trading a bit bellow (20%) with low volume...

I really enjoyed David's call on CVM, and Michael's opinion too... We may still have some potential here, even if things are not so nice on the short term (low volume / lack of upside reaction), the same I can't say on the long term patterns (long term semi-log chart attached).

There are 2 downside levels that could be supports: 0.75 and 0.70, even if I don't like having so much room, I enjoy the risk / reward ratio on this one, so we'll use $0.69 stop level and let this pattern rolling on.

Best regards !