3StocksOnFire — US Stock Trading Community · 451+ trades · 257% returns · 15,000 members · Main Site · Trader's Guide · Articles · Video Analyses
3 Stocks On Fire
3StocksOnFire Community Forum
Home Message Boards Trader's Guide Articles Video Analysis About Us Search Register

BNT

Started by Michael, June 13, 2005, 08:01:54 AM

Previous topic - Next topic

wisebuys

Any thoughts on today's selloff?  I am holding DIET and BNT in my portfolio and I should be the one losing weight, not my portfolio.

Time to buy more???


Michael

Hi Wisebuy,

My feeling is that the company could have posted any figures yesterday and you would still have seen a sell off today. It is pretty obvious that this has nothing today with BNT's earnings our guidance, which were stellar.

So this is a classic short/long standoff. I believe this company is going to continue its strong earnings growth in the years to come. They have within short time received 63 new marketing approvals and just this should guarantee that they continue to exceed the expectations.

I am on the buying side today. I am not buying very aggressively as I am already well positioned in BNT but I consider this level to be a good entry point.

Mike
Michael Bang Koenig
www.3stocksonfire.org


      Join our Message Board.

la-onda

Bentley Down After Analyst Income Note
Thursday March 9, 2:54 pm ET
Bentley Shares Fall After Analyst Notes Fourth-Quarter Profit Was Helped by Reserves

EXETER, N.H. (AP) -- Shares of Bentley Pharmaceuticals Inc. fell Thursday after one analyst suggested that the increase in the specialty drug maker's fourth-quarter earnings were helped by the recognition of deferred income.
Raymond James analyst Michael Krensavage reiterated his "Underperform" rating, saying the company used deferred income in its earnings. The analyst said that Bentley's deferred-income reserves declined by $1.95 million, or 8 cents per share, from the third quarter.
Results benefited from a reduction of deferred income reserves, liabilities that reflect income Bentley has received but not run through the income statement, said Krensavage.
Late Wednesday, the company posted a fourth-quarter profit of $3.7 million, or 16 cents per share, up from $2 million, or 9 cents per share, a year earlier. Total revenues rose 29 percent to $25.2 million in the fourth quarter of 2005 from $19.5 million in the fourth quarter of 2004.
Krensavage estimated revenue of $27.6 million for the latest quarter.
Bentley shares fell $2.44, or 14 percent, to $14.90 in afternoon trading on the New York Stock Exchange at more than double their average volume. Shares have climbed from a 52-week low of $6.50 in May to hit a 52-week high of $22.90 in January.

very disapointed day but still convinced about the middle and long term perspective
Oliver

Michael

#48
Hi Oliver,

Hmmmm... the market never fails to amaze me

So you have an analyst who have a negative rating on the stock who desperately try to find a justification for this after the company reports stellar earnings. He finds a bogus issue with deferred revenue and the market falls for the trick.

It is quite normal that deferred income decrease, when the company closes the books at year-end.

Here are the deferred income in 2004 and 2005

Q3 04    3,216
Q4 04    1,956

Decrease 1,260

Q3 05    2,674
Q4 05       795

Decrease 1,879

Deferred income are normally related to revenue the company has recognized for services that has still not been delivered. At year end you will often find that all these loose ends are tied up.

In the case of BNT a major portion of Deferred revenue is related to license revenue:

QuoteRoyalty revenues on Testim product sales are currently recognized based on an estimate of Auxilium's sell-through of the Testim product based on prescriptions dispensed. For the three and nine months ended September 30, 2005, the Company recognized royalty revenues of $1,391,000 and $3,512,000, respectively, compared to approximately $800,000 and $2,000,000 in the three and nine months ended September 30, 2004, respectively. Under SFAS No. 48, the Company cannot recognize all of the royalty revenues earned on product shipments of Testim until product returns related to those shipments can be reasonably estimated. The difference between the total amount earned from Auxilium under the royalty arrangement and the amount recognized as a component of licensing and collaboration revenues is recorded as a component of current deferred income in the Consolidated Balance Sheets. Once returns can be reasonably estimated, the Company expects to record a one-time increase in licensing and collaboration revenues related to the recognition of previously deferred royalty revenues. As of September 30, 2005 and December 31, 2004, deferred income from Testim royalties totaled $1,635,000 and $1,233,000, respectively.

So in Q3 BNT had deferred revenue from Testim of 1,635. This amount was most likely reduced significantly in Q4. This sound absolutely reasonable for me. After all license revenue almost doubled during 2005 so Auxilium is most likely not returning any products.

We will get all the details when they file their annual report. Until then I believe there is money to be made on the long side.

Mike
Michael Bang Koenig
www.3stocksonfire.org


      Join our Message Board.

la-onda

another downgrade  ??? :-\
conspirancy???

BNT: Roth Capital Cuts to Sell from Neutral; Cuts Tgt to $10 vs $12; Analyst Notes
Friday , March 10, 2006 08:59 ET

Issuer: Bentley Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NYSE: BNT)
Analyst Firm:  Roth Capital Partners Inc.
Ratings Action: DOWNGRADE
Current Rating: Sell (from Neutral)
Target Price Action: DECREASE
Target Price: $10.00 (-16.67% from $12.00)
Analyst Comments: The firm is downgrading shares and lowering their target price due to valuation.


cheers
O.

Melf Elf

Quote from: la-onda on March 10, 2006, 09:30:53 AM
another downgrade  ??? :-\
conspirancy???

BNT: Roth Capital Cuts to Sell from Neutral; Cuts Tgt to $10 vs $12; Analyst Notes
Friday , March 10, 2006 08:59 ET

Oliver,

That particular target leads me to think that the downgrade is based on the chart technicals.  BNT completed a four month H&S top near the open yesterday on heavy volume, which put a target of 10.33 IN PLAY.

Melf Elf

Sorry, Oliver, I forgot to attach the chart.

Michael

Quote from: la-onda on March 10, 2006, 09:30:53 AM
another downgrade  ??? :-\
conspirancy???

BNT: Roth Capital Cuts to Sell from Neutral; Cuts Tgt to $10 vs $12; Analyst Notes
Friday , March 10, 2006 08:59 ET

Hi Oliver,

I don't think it is a conspirancy. What I do think is the Roth Capital analyst have no clue about Bentley. You probably remember his last downgrade in December. The timing of that downgrade was particularly bad. The stock was up 30% in the following 45 days. At that time he cited valuation as the reason for the downgrade.

Now he come with the same reason and decrease the target further. I don't see any reason for decreasing the target. (I could see many reasons for increasing it!).

He probably feels a bit stupid after the first downgrade so here is a chance to save face. I hope he is as wrong as he was in December  ;)

Mike
Michael Bang Koenig
www.3stocksonfire.org


      Join our Message Board.


ScottishTrader

BNT continues to show technical weakness, but I would consider a buy in the low 13s quite attractive, as it should encounter horizontal and ascending support there.

usedcasting

Do analyst's work for institutions,hum!. This is definitely a big snow job hum!

Analyst's down grade stock - Institutions buy that stock.  Nice!

I know its old news but it's still frustrating.

uc.

Know when to hold'em, know when to fold'em

la-onda

#56
Michael, may I kindly ask for your comment? ;)

Form 10-K:
http://xml.10kwizard.com/filing_raw.php?repo=tenk&ipage=4036491

Royalty revenues:
Revenue recognition


Revenue on product sales is recognized when persuasive evidence of an arrangement exists, the price is fixed and final, delivery has occurred and there is a reasonable assurance of collection of the sales proceeds. The Company generally obtains purchase authorizations from its customers for a specified amount of product at a specified price and considers delivery to have occurred when the customer takes possession of the product. The Company provides its customers with a limited right of return. Revenue is recognized upon delivery and a reserve for sales returns is recorded when considered appropriate. The Company has demonstrated the ability to make reasonable and reliable estimates of product returns in accordance with SFAS No. 48, Revenue Recognition When Right of Return Exists, and of allowances for doubtful accounts based on significant historical experience.

Revenue from service, research and development, and licensing agreements is recognized when the service procedures have been completed or as revenue recognition criteria have been met for each separate unit of accounting as defined in Emerging Issues Task Force (EITF) Issue No. 00-21, Accounting for Revenue Arrangements with Multiple Deliverables. The Company has deferred the recognition of approximately $2,594,000 and $2,147,000 of licensing revenues as of December 31, 2005 and 2004, respectively, for which the earnings process has not been completed.
Royalty revenues on Testim product sales are currently recognized based on an estimate of Auxilium's sell-through of the Testim product based on prescriptions dispensed. The Company recognized royalty revenues of $6,132,000 and $2,842,000 for the years ended December 31, 2005 and 2004, respectively. Under SFAS No. 48, the Company cannot recognize all of the royalty revenues earned on product shipments of Testim until product returns related to those shipments can be reasonably estimated. The difference between the total amount earned from Auxilium under the royalty arrangement and the amount recognized as a component of licensing and collaboration revenues is recorded as a component of current deferred income in the Consolidated Balance Sheets. Once returns can be reasonably estimated, the Company expects to record a one-time increase in licensing and collaboration revenues related to the recognition of previously deferred royalty revenues. As of year end 2005 and 2004, deferred income from Testim royalties totaled $348,000 and $1,233,000, respectively.

please check also side 47:
Spanish Operations. The increase in the net product sales for the year ended December 31, 2005 compared to the year ended December 31, 2004 is due primarily to: (1) an increase in sales to licensees and others totaling $11,024,000 fueled primarily by sales outside of Spain; and (2) an aggregate increase totaling $5,072,000 in sales of our three top selling product lines (omeprazole, simvastatin and enalapril). Sales of active pharmaceutical ingredients from our API manufacturing facility (included in "All other products" in the tables above) added $1,783,000 to consolidated revenues in 2005. Fluctuations in the weighted average value of the Euro, in relation to the U.S. Dollar had a significant impact on operations during the interim periods of 2005, but did not have a material impact on operations for the year.

The Ministry of Health in Spain continues to encourage the substitution of generic-equivalent products in order to help control rising healthcare costs. In recent years, our business was negatively impacted by price reductions mandated by the Spanish government. We have furthered our expansion into markets outside of Spain, increased the number of drugs in our portfolio and purchased efficient high speed manufacturing equipment to help manage our business profitability. Additionally, in April 2004, we purchased a manufacturing facility, located in Zaragoza, Spain, which specializes in the manufacture of active pharmaceutical ingredients. The ability to manufacture active pharmaceutical ingredients has diversified our revenue base. We will continue to focus on acquiring, developing and launching new products that will improve our product mix. Four products were launched in 2005 and contributed approximately $588,000 to net product sales. We will also continue our efforts to increase sales outside of Spain through additional registration, marketing, and supply agreements. We will also continue to make significant investments in renovating and increasing capacity in manufacturing facilities and investments in new high speed, high volume equipment.


la-onda

BNT: Short Interest UP 20.0% to 3.5M in Mar 2006
Tuesday , March 21, 2006 16:16 ET

According to new short interest data from NYSE, short interest for Bentley Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NYSE: BNT) INCREASED 20.0% to 3,469,627 shares for the month ended mid-March, 2006.

SYMBOL       FEBRUARY         MARCH          CHANGE       %CHANGE     DAYS/COVER
--------   -------------   -------------   -------------  ------------  ----------
BNT            2,892,167       3,469,627        +577,460       +19.97%           9

Based on BNT's 20-day average daily share volume of 409,960, it would require approximately 9 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.

shotboy

Quote from: Michael on June 13, 2005, 08:01:54 AM
BNT seems to be ready for break out from a solid base between 11 and 12. They have announced very good results from their PhaseII trials of their Intranasal spray for Diabetes today.

Here are a few highlights for those who don't know the stock:

1. Sales increased with 40% in Q1 2005 compared to Q1 2004

2. Significant increase in international business

3. Generic version of Omeprazole has just been approved for UK (this is their largest product!) BNT has submitted patent applications for producing large quantities of this and other gastrointestinal products in a very cost- efficient manner compared to their generic counterpart.

4. They have alliances in Portugal, Greece, UK, Germany, Austria, Morroco, Poland and the Czech republic for distribution of their products (expect international sale to increase even faster than what we saw in Q1)

5. Spanish subsidiaries have executed a total of 129 license agreements. While 62 of these agreements are pending regulatory approvals, 67 of these agreements cover actively marketed products that are generating revenues.

6. BNT has successfully an intranasal spray in phase II for delivery of insulin. SG Cowen analyst Ian Sanderson sees inhaled insulin eventually penetrating up to 20% of the Type 2-diabetes market, with peak sales of about $2.8 billion overall. This product alone should warrant a very significant increase in the value of BNT. (and when I say very I mean it!)

7. BNT is a clear leader in the application of Nanotechnology in the pharmaceutical field. According to Robert Gyurik, Bentley's vice president of pharmaceutical development at BNT: "Nanocaplet technology may prove to be a core-enabling technology that can change the way drugs are administered." and  CEO james Murphy predicts has said that:"Bentley's technology is far different than previous nanocapsules, The ability to deliver substances at the molecular level means lower doses might be administered for the same therapeutic effect." The Nanotechnology market is forecasted to be a 950 billion industry in 10 years with the pharmaceutical industry as one of the main drivers.

8. Insiders are accumulating shares at these levels

9. Glaxo suit concerning Paxil has just been dismissed

10. The company has practical no long term debt (331K) and 36 million in cash.

11. No brokerage firm is currently recommending the stock which has allowed this tremendously inefficent pricing of Bentley to develop.

12. Bentley presented positive data this weekend at the ADA conference in San Diego.

13. Over $40 million NOL carry forward to be applied to US operations. As US ops. shows a profit, the first $40 million is tax free.

14.Almost $5 million in deferred income sitting on the balance sheet which will be applied to the income statement over the next 12-18 months.

15. Entry into the US generics market through Perrigo.

16. Double digit royalty on Testim, a product marketed by Auxilium (AUXL). Testim has shown a steady growth rate and now Oscient Pharmaceuticals has added to the marketing effort. 250 Oscient sales reps. are now promoting Testim. This increase in sales force,in effect, triples AUXL current number of detailers.

17. Sizeable long term holders of the stock (Citigroup and Vice Chair McGovern) hold over 5 million shares out of 22 million. These two holders have added shares over the last year.

18. Analyst coverage is weak with two marginal Wall St. firms following the stock. This opens up Bentley to potential coverage by larger institutions and thus a wider field of investors.

Mike

la-onda

disapointed chart, shorts interest down.....  :(

BNT: Short Interest DN 25.3% to 2.6M in Apr 2006
Thursday , April 20, 2006 16:46 ET

According to new short interest data from NYSE, short interest for Bentley Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NYSE: BNT) DECREASED 25.3% to 2,593,388 shares for the month ended mid-April, 2006.

SYMBOL     MARCH           APRIL          CHANGE       %CHANGE    DAYS/COVER
--------   -------------   -------------   -------------  ------------  ----------
BNT            3,469,627       2,593,388        -876,239       -25.25%          13

Based on BNT's 20-day average daily share volume of 212,130, it would require approximately 13 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.