3SOF

A thing I've learned about myself is that after I done all the research and have decided to buy stock, is that I only want to hear positive things about my decision. When I go to a message board and read the messages, I am thinking that that all the people that are saying negative things about the stock I just bought are bashers and full of Sh*t, and wanting the price to go down because they are shorting it. It's hard to have an open mind when you want to be right, no one wants to hear bad things about the decision they have made. On regular message boards the post are from either a pumper or a basher, and contain very little useful information (stock will double tomorrow--company going bankrupt), This is one of the few places a person can go where people work together to do there best to help others make their decisions. If someone here says a bad thing about a stock that I bought, I know that it is something I should look into. But then again, it is all kind of a game, and you try make sure the odds are in your favor, but sometimes you get the 2 instead of the ace. I think though that as a community we stack the deck fairly well, and all opinions are appreciated if they are meant to benefit the community. I do not believe there are any college courses or seminars out there that could teach me what I have learned here. I took a good clipping from Diet, (hate it when that happens) but I would not have had the money to invest to start with if wasn't for you all and David.

 Congrats eliteG and Mike joining the team with Ramsburg. I would say I want David on the Panel too. Infact I would strongly request for that.

Quote from: stocky on March 13, 2006, 09:04:25 AM
Congrats eliteG and Mike joining the team with Ramsburg. I would say I want David on the Panel too. Infact I would strongly request for that.

Strongly agree Stocky

uc.

PS. Holly intense thread. (This is better than TV). It appears I am getting some value for my $3,565.50 lose. I love the dialog and the drama, I think it is very educational.

And as always, I Love this Site.

   I cannot agree more with stocky and undercasting with their demand for David to be the panelist too. In fact, David was my inpiration to join the site and pay for the service. I never paid for any subscription as I thought most were bogus. But David has really made me going on stocks and I will regret not to have him around.

  Can any of the site Administrators please provide a clear explanation of the change and describe the future operation principles??

Thank you.

Hi berloga,

1reilly started a thread on the new 3SOF setup here: http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=4796.new;boardseen#new

I think this thread will answer some of your questions. 3SOF has been evolving from day one based on the requests from the members. This evolution will continue so please keep asking questions and come with good ideas!

Mike

I bought tonight at close. It is at trend line, way below Bollinger bands, RSI under 30 and may go back up and stochastics under 20 while volume faded and range was less. Good risk reward as stop goes under support for tiny loss.

Chart... http://tinyurl.com/nt4bl

I have not been following this stock since January - Alan Farley had written that this kind of stock generally pulls back by February as people's New Year resolutions often get put off. Anyway on the earnings morning I saw in pre market that they expected 10% growth I thought I read and I picked up only a couple hundred shares to watch at 7 but then the bid stropped to 6.50 and I sold at 6.99 in a minute when someone like me bought a little. So I was really surprised later to see it had dropped so much. I know nothing about it so had no reason to short it.

Anyway even if it needs to fall further is is oversold now and could at a minimum rally back to the 500-day so good for 10%. If not then a stock just under the recent low.

Quote from: eliteG on March 13, 2006, 01:07:18 AM
DIET - has a complicated past here but I will comment specifically on the current situation.

After a gap down and a tall red(down) candle DIET showed no hint of support as it continued lower breaching the 200sma and the $5.00 level.  Since the price recently oscillated at these levels(4-5) support is expected to show up soon. 

Simply a sign of support will not be good enough to hold this stock.. as DIET could take its time clawing back up.  Time is money and this is the 3stocksonFIRE portfolio    We are hoping DIET can bounce back strong starting on Monday and perhaps setting a good tone for the week.

In case the market does not consider DIET a good play here we will be setting a stop @ 4.64.

What will the market have in store for us this week?

DIET - gave us a sign of support but like I stated before this is not good enough to hold a position in the stock on FIRE portfolio.  So we will get aggressive here and require that DIET close above 5.12(the high of today's candle) to keep this position.  In case things go sour on the intra-day the stop from yesterday will be in play.

We will hold DIET unless it prints 4.64 or is set to close below 5.13.

Looks like DIET is toying with the 5.12 ultimatum.

Can we keep DIET but move it to a new portfolio we'll call "3 Stocks On Ice"

We need to issue an Amber Alert for Melf Elf. His last post was the rant on page 11 of this thread on Sunday. Has anyone heard from him since? I wonder if he was upset by the promotions?

I will continue holding DIET. I don't think there's much downside left, because I can't fathom DIET is worth less now than it was six months ago. It could dip a little but I think the downside from this point (low 5's) is not much more than 10% and the upside is 60% for a gap fill.

DIET is definately toying with the number Lucas 

but as I write this DIET is @ 5.13 so we will hold.  That was an aggressive call to make and DIET has met it!  I will update the new stops later.

We will hold DIET.

Solid looking rebound for DIET today forming a morning doji star candle stick pattern which is one of the most reliable patterns in candle sticks. If we see a rally tomorrow i will likley sell at the close. I do believe this will recover over time but i believe its going to be a long bumpy ride and think i can make my money back faster in other stocks. Lots of times when i stock  crashes like this it will form an ascending triangle and the breakout of the triangle can send PPS back up to its previous levels. Once this happens is when i will look for another entry into DIET.

Good luck everyone holding,

Fous

Morning Doji Star

Significance: bullish

Indication: reversal

# of candles: 3

Previous Trend: Bearish

The Morning Doji Star pattern is characterizes by 3 candles. The fisrt day is a long black candle reinforcing the already bearish downtrend. The second is gaps down and forms a doji candle, indicating confusion in the market and a reversal could be upon us. And finally the 3rd day forms a white candle whose closing price pushes well into the real body of the first black day that occurred in this pattern. A gap up on the 3rd day is preferred for an ideal bullish Morning Star pattern though is not required. Confirmation of this pattern is provided by a higher close on the 4th day.

Note: Candlestick reversal patterns are significantly more potent when occuring near areas of support and resistence.

Nice work Fous    It sounds like you have a solid plan for DIET but the doji is not in star formation(gap) which would indicate a stronger reversal in place(exhaustion gap).

Thanks for the correction G. Though it is not a completely legit morning doji star pattern i still see  it as a powerful reversal candle formation. A white day tomorrow will confirm its force.

Heres somewhat of a forcast of what i think DIET has the possibility of doing. Its similar to a recent play of mine. [VNT] .

This is my favorite set up to play
1. huge sell off on heavy volume
2. forms an ascending triangle
3. Breaks a downsloping resistence line

First chart VNT, second DIET

-fous

Hmm interesting stuff Fous dont know about that downsloping line on DIET but VNT looks like an incredible play.  Great chartwork man 

Fous - if your crystal ball is crystal clear all the DIET longs will be back in the green by mid-summer $-) . Did you base the top line of your ascending triangle on a Fib retrace? Looks like that line is approx the 38.2% retrace point (~$6.16). I'd be a seller there and look to re-enter lower. I hope it unfolds the way you've drawn it!!

Quote from: eliteG on March 14, 2006, 08:48:12 PM
Hmm interesting stuff Fous dont know about that downsloping line on DIET but VNT looks like an incredible play.  Great chartwork man 

LOL yah the downsloping line is skeptical on DIET. Though that line has shown a lot of significance since i first noticed it and i have used it previously to enter a position and looking for support. Here is sort of a timeline of the previous posts i made of that downsloping trendline playing out perfectly since the first day i noticed it.

1. I entered Diet at 7.20 in anticipation of this symmetrical triangle breakout. I.E. the downsloping trend line.


2. The downsloping trendline was broken out of and retraced back down to it. Showing support

3. Price action once again rallied and retraced to find support at the descending trendline.


4. Breakout! im lookin to see some green following this day!


5. Buuuuuuuuuuuuutttt no. No green for me. Although look where pps for support, once again that descending trendline. And then the next day were all shittin our pants 


So i know its not the prettiest descending trendline one has ever seen. But it has shown a lot of significance for resistance for the symmetrical triangle and especially for support. While i won't be basing an entry soley off of this trendline, but a breakout of this line with a pending ascending triangle is a potent combo.

Quote from: Lucas Scott on March 14, 2006, 10:05:00 PM
Fous - if your crystal ball is crystal clear all the DIET longs will be back in the green by mid-summer $-) . Did you base the top line of your ascending triangle on a Fib retrace? Looks like that line is approx the 38.2% retrace point (~$6.16). I'd be a seller there and look to re-enter lower. I hope it unfolds the way you've drawn it!!

Hey Lucas, My crystal ball(my brain) tells me i drew the neckline at that point because it is the middle of the long black marubozu. Similarly when you look for support in the middle a white marubozu in a rally. I look for resistance at the midpoint of a Black marubozu. Notice the neckline of the VNT chart.

-fous