3SOF

Thanks sandmand9571 for the post from Yahoo MB:

03/16/06 10:30 pm
Msg: 166866 of 166890

"We have had a number of tumultuous trading days in row now and maybe a good time to consider where NVAX is in the context of future events. The overall background of the progress of the virus continues to worsen by the day and this will not change.

NVAX has had 3 news events that have propelled the current move: the Bharat joint venture, the Rodman Renshaw upgrade and the government grant for the HIV vaccine.

This move cleared the 5.68 conversion level so quickly we still may be seeing some of the note holders converting into NVAX common and then selling to record their gain. This should be the next piece of news from the company. It is a POSITIVE to be rid of this interest bearing note. It will relieve NVAX of a sizeable annual interest payment. Do not let shorts or bashers tell you otherwise. On that note, to you shorts and bashers, please think of some new tack in your posts. You are the same people who posted at 4, 5, and 5. Do you really think you are having ANY effect here?

We are due several announcements conerning the drug delivery technology each of which should be accompanied by an upfront payment. There should be a worldwide deal for Estrasorb, a deal with Ranbaxy and a deal on a second drug. Any of these will serve to underline the value of NVAX's FDA approved drug delivery technology. This area of the company is totally overlooked with the focus on avian flu.

The avian flu program will get a huge boost from the impending government grant. NVAX will respond to 3 RFPs, however, NVAX has also submitted its own proposal outside of the RFPs and I believe this approach has been going on since last December. I believe the government will respond to the NVAX proposal in a strong way spurred on by the current crisis. It is this particular event which will push NVAX into double digits.

I firmly believe that Kleiner Perkins is in firm control of the NVAX PR process now. They know how to market a company as well as a concept. There will be no doors closed to NVAX now. There may be an excellent chance of some of the Gates Foundation money supporting NVAX as Klausner who chaired the Gates Foundation is overseeing the Bharat JV and Kleiner ran some of the foundation's funds. The Gates foundation has a keen interest in vaccine research as it just donated a quarter of a billion dollar to Malaria vaccine research.

NVAX is up a lot in a short period of time but the valuation still does not reflect the promise of this company. I have looked closely at the other companies in this area and nothing approaches NVAX. There will be increasing volatility as NVAX heads higher but to serious longs I'd just say remember what you own and remember what is coming. There may even be a surprise or two along the way."

Thank you for directing me to the tax info!

I appreciate it....now for the fun tax stuff...

You are very welcome 422fwhp.

Here's a repost of tax info for those that still haven't done their tax return yet: 

= For those that need to file tax return for USA =

= All USA traders must claim capital gain/loss for stocks sold in 2005 on 2005 tax return using Schedule D =

Here's a very valuable MB thread started for tax filing for USA traders:

http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=4709.msg51674#msg51674

Wow, another nice gain day for GNBT and NVAX fared the much anticipated "profit taking" day quite well.  Actually, if you look at the NVAX analysis below, as I theorized on previous post, holders of VPHM probably sold and bought NVAX pushing the price back up in the afternoon - VPHM lost 33% today and is back down to $10 from $22!!! Wow. 

GNBT gained $0.32 (12.21%) with almost 21 million shares traded which is more than 3 times the 3 month average volume of 6.9 million shares.  I posted in the Knowledge Base last night for the newbies group that price increase with matching volume increase indicates strong buying pressure that will sustain price gains.  GNBT is demonstrating such example.

Now to the technicals and the swing trading template.  RSI is at 80 and rising with MACD firmly in the positive territory after going negative to positive two days ago.  Chart looks very bullish with strong rise in volume.  GNBT is approaching previous profit taking point based on RSI, but MACD just turned positive two days ago.  If the buying pressure continues (perhaps as holders of other Avian/Bio-tech stocks sell and buy GNBT), profit taking activity may occur soon, but as seen with NVAX, maybe short lived.

Longer-term, GNBT may experience another run as long as MACD remains in the positive territory as seen during Jan-Feb run.

I am very bullish and long on GNBT.

Now to NVAX.

There was much "buzz" as to NVAX being due for some profit taking and it happened at market open.  The drop was not as bad because I suspect with VPHM was selling off in a big way all day long, the sellers of VPHM probably bought NVAX, minimzing the profit taking drop and actually pushing NVAX into the green in the afternoon.  (Oh, I feel for the ones who bought VPHM at $22+ and suffered the drop to $10 today.  Ouch!  And as I posted last night in the Knowledge Base, that's being on the "wrong" side of the trade).

= update = VPHM large drop was probably due to VPHM's Vancocin being allowed for "generic" production by other pharmaceuticals by FDA:
http://biz.yahoo.com/bizj/060317/1261456.html?.v=2

NVAX gained $0.06 (0.82%) with 9.2 million shares traded which is more than twice the 3 month average volume of 4.3 million shares.  There was some drop in volume from yesterday and RSI is flat at 80 with MACD still rising due to the afternoon gain.  I believe if it wasn't for VPHM drop that may have pushed the price of NVAX up, NVAX probably would have closed in the red.

So, what now for NVAX?  I anticipate that NVAX may take further profit taking drop early next week, but as long as MACD remains in the positive territory, it should rebound its gain.

If you are trading according to the swing trading template, you can take profit and buy back on rebound. 

Good morning,

I spent the early morning updating and "cleaning" up the Knowledge Base.  As many of you requested, I also posted the "blank" Swing Trading Instructions/Templates (version 7).  The newest posts are in RED and gets changed to BLUE after a few days:

http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=3633.msg32636#msg32636

After breakfast, I will start posting the info on "Rotational Swing Trading" here and also at the Knowledge Base.  I see Rotational Swing Trading as a natural advanced trading principle/technique progression as the newbie trader becomes effective with swing trading.

See you all later.

My repost from Yahoo MB:

03/18/06 11:48 am
Msg: 128093 of 128093

FDA approval process in the US is so long that a small company with limited revenue stream such as Generex will go bankrupt waiting for clinical trials (often takes years).

Generex was very smart to receive "retail marketing" of Oral-lyn in Ecuador where they can start selling their product in a retail consumer market setting.

This data along with their clinical trial data, which is ongoing, will continue to be added to their existing database to be presented to the NEXT country's FDA equivalent (like Canada).

Generex receiving the patent in Mexico is huge because of the market share and the proximity to US.  Don't you think many diabetics won't go to Mexico to buy Oral-lyn if it is effective for Diabetes?  Heck, I don't like needles and if I can spray Oral-lyn 20 min before meals and 20 min after, I will make monthly trip to Mexico and get some Oral-lyn. Think about that...

Ok, now that you had time to thnk, Generex was very smart to go to Ecuador and Mexico and Canada.  With the money raised recently from sale of warrants, Generex as a company can keep growing and raise revenue (even with recent sale of more stocks, GNBT price kept going up).  I posted previously that best time to release more warrants to raise capital is when the stock is hot and rising in interest/price.

With money on hand and the sale of Oral-lyn in Mexico a certainty, approval in Canada is not far away. This all helps FDA approval in US.  Generex will probably approach European Union next, if they are not already in talks with EU.

Oh, and Generex is also an Avian play. Dang, this stock's got several pipelines that just keeps going with their buccal (mucosal) delivery of medications.

This is why I am long on GNBT. Check the links below: (Thanks tecam1950 for the link)

http://www.drugdevelopment-technology.com/projects/oral-lyn/

http://www.generex.com/news/default.asp

Yahoo GNBT MB has been crazy all morning on a weekend day again!  Over 128,000 posts!!!

My repost from Yahoo MB: 

03/18/06 03:38 pm
Msg: 128265 of 128265

ggekko558,

And there will be many more such alerts for GNBT as it rises above the stock radars.

I see a nice gain week next week as "BUY" alerts go out from many stock brokerage houses.

This week's performance by a tiny micro-cap company called "Generex" will get a lot of new attention like NVAX did when it was trading around $1-$2 in the fall of 2005.

But Generex has much more going for it then just the Avian flu vaccine.  The non-injectable oral spray insulin has great potential that has world-wide sales market base. That's big.

My repost from Yahoo MB:

03/18/06 04:48 pm
Msg: 128283 of 128284

The traders here can't see the global diabetic market that's not being serviced.

Oral spray insulin will not only provide "comfort" of not having to inject, but do you know that each dose of insulin uses individual "disposable" syringe?

You multiply several syringes times the total number of insulin users worldwide, the cost saving of syringe production is staggering.

As far as I know, the Oral-lyn is delivered in common spray pump bottle that can hold many doses, perhaps days or even weeks' worth.

If the cost savings is there, there will be a massive shift in insulin delivery, regardless of "comfort" issue or not. Money is money, world wide.

03/18/06 04:50 pm
Msg: 128284 of 128353

And, currently, the insulin syringes must be disposed of as "medical sharps waste" that either gets incinerated or goes to landfills if properly treated.

Oral spray eliminates these extra steps/costs and saves our landfill/environment also.

Yes, Oral-lyn is enviromentally friendly. Will it get the support of "green conscious" world?

Oh yes!!!


03/18/06 06:27 pm
Msg: 128374 of 128374

ronfrak,

Generex is a Canadian company. If Oral-lyn is sold in Mexico and Canada, Generex don't even have to get FDA approval. Diabetics in US will get Oral-lyn from either Mexico or Canada!!!

Think about that!

More GNBT buzz at Yahoo MB ... and this is about annual cost of Oral-lyn for diabetic patients in Ecuador and potential future revenue for Generex:  Thanks sp1ketrader for the post.

03/18/06 06:46 pm
Msg: 128388 of 128391

"So lets go with the info we have - 50$ a month per patient in Ecuador, and that Oral-lyn will be marketed for about that, probably a bit more, say 60$ a month per patient (and that is in South America).

I'm guessing that the real value here is with the 'RapidMist' patent, which will probably allow them to sell it anyway they choose to.. not to mention the size of the potential market.. anyone had a chance to think through the numbers ?

Lets see.. revenues.. 60 * 12 = 720 dollars per patient per annum

Even with 'just' say 100,000 users in 2006 we get to 72 Million in revenues this year -

A Million users in 2007 and the revenues spike to 720 Million...

10 Million in 2008 and we have 7,2 Billion...

Even with relatively near-term earnings of say 100 Million, and a PE of say 30, you are looking at a Market Cap of 3 Billion - a 15 bagger from here...

And thats just one of the products in the Generex pipeline... "


Another issue was raised at Yahoo MB by ivalexy but corrections were provided for his misinformation already covered by previous Generex PR's:

"..."Oral-lyn spray will only be used to replace the injectable insulin before meals. Even with Oral-lyn, the patient still has inject himself in the morning and the evening..."

THAT'S NEWS TO ME....

I thought all along that Oral-lyn will replace insulin injection altogether. It really teases you a bit...it really will not avoid the
pain and trauma of injections. Did Generex ever clarify or mention this Oral-lyn limitation?"

and here is my response:

03/18/06 07:12 pm
Msg: 128405 of 128407

ivalexy,

Obviously you are not familiar with Diabetes. Oral-lyn is a short-acting regular insulin replacement.

No diabetic will take short-acting regular insulin in the morning or at bedtime. If they do, they will go into hypoglycemic shock.

Instead, diabetics will take long-acting insulin like NPH or 70/30 mix. I am sure Generex will make Oral-lyn for the longer-acting insulin, since the delivery is the same regardless of the medication.

That is why Oral-lyn is used to replace the short-acting regular insulin for meals.

= update = LarryMacc's post states, according to GNBT Investors Relations, Generex will be working on the longer-lasting insulin delivery to eliminate any injections:

03/18/06 09:28 pm
Msg: 128486 of 128490

"Apparently, their (GNBT) next focus will be on a system that will eliminate those two Needle requiredments."

Oh my, it's been another "frenzy" day on Yahoo GNBT MB.  The new interest in GNBT is amazing.

Well, back to the topic of swing trading.

As of today, I will start posting a natural progression of swing trading I will coin the term as "Rotational Swing Trading."  I will also post the Rotational Swing Trading info at the Knowledge Base:
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=3633.msg32636#msg32636


What is Rotational Swing Trading?


History:

Several weeks back on this MB, I outlined that the short-term swing trading template represents the smallest of the wave patterns of Elliott Wave Theory.  http://www.stockcharts.com/education/MarketAnalysis/elliotwavetheory.html

With the short-term swing trading template proven to be effective 95%+ for trending stocks, many asked how they should stage and line up the next stocks to be short-term swing traded.

I have been thinking about finding indicators to represent the larger groups of Elliott Wave Theory wave patterns and initially developed the draft of mid-term swing trading template undergoing tests right now.

Then it hit me one day that my method of staging stocks off the 20-40 stock monitoring list needs to be improved.  You see, I have been staging stocks that are "good" candidates but as I focus on the stocks I am holding, often good buy/sell entry/exit points pass by for other stocks.  While wishing I had more money to trade on these good buy/sell points I realized something.

For the past month or two, I have been focusing on 1-3 stocks and buying/selling at short-term swing trading template buy/sell points.  Often, I would be holding two or three positions at the same time.  This often resulted in missing the bottoming of MACD/RSI for stocks that are lined up.


Creation of Rotational Swing Trading:

If you follow the short-term swing trading template's buy/sell indicators, you can essentially buy low as MACD is bottoming and rebounding with RSI at (30-50) and sell high as MACD is peaking with corresponding RSI hitting 70-80+.

= This is for advanced swing trader = What if you take several stocks you are familiar with and can accurately time the bottoming of the MACD of those stocks and put them on a "rotational schedule" and perform Rotational Swing Trading as each stock's MACD is bottoming and peaking?  Impossible?  Well, we have demonstrated that we can accurately time the buy/sell points of one stock based on the short-term swing trading template's indicators.

If you have been trading for some time, you will be familiar with a group of stocks and their previous performance (we need about 3 months time period).  If you are willing to spend some time calculating the MACD bottom/peak cycle and projecting the bottoming of stocks that started their price correcting drop, you can estimate the bottoming of the MACD and schedule the stocks for Rotational Swing Trading, so you are always buying at bottom and selling at peak and immediately buying the next stock on rotation where the MACD is at or near the bottom and rebounding.

I have been doing some of this rotation this month and last month.  My timing is getting better within 1-3 days, but I see potential for even more accurate timing because you only need 2-4 stocks to perform the rotation.

I will post the Rotational Swing Trading Template draft later this weekend.

to be continued...

Nice point sp1ketrader, from Yahoo MB.  Generex is a Canadian company and I suspect that Canadian government would certainly "help" a native company with such a "global" health solution (BTW, the Canadian government stands to benefit from the Generex revenue also) 

03/18/06 09:15 pm
Msg: 128472 of 128478

I also find it very interesting (fortunate) for Generex that the revised Health Canada policy came into effect on March 1st and that Generex seem to be the first to benefit from it!

"This revised policy statement is effective as of March 1, 2006 and replaces the previous policy dated February 1, 2003."

(I'd like to think this is more than a coincidence and that it shows that Canada Health clearly see the benefits of Oral-lyn and know it can help reduce the harmful effects (and associated costs to the state) of missing injections...)

http://www.hc-sc.gc.ca/dhp-mps/prodpharma/applic-demande/pol/noccrev_acrev_pol_2006_e.html

Wow, another early morning of frenzy on Yahoo GNBT MB and I can barely keep up with the number of posts!  (128600+)

These are comments from diabetics themselves regarding Generex's Oral-lyn (oral insulin spray):

03/19/06 09:13 am
Msg: 128595 of 128694

I am a diabetic, have been for 20 years and I have been on many different oral drugs and in some cases many at the same time. Why? Because they lose their effect on the body. After the pills the natural path is insulin. Insulin works. I can prove it, I'm still here, Yup, 76 and still kicking. So why not just stay with insulin? I intend to. I have so many needle marks in my body you would thing I have a new set of pores. 3 times a day the needle enters my body. Three times a day I swab with an alchol swab and load a needle and inject it into my body. I rotate the spot of injection so as not to cause a reaction. Sometimes I hit a blood vessel and some blood comes out. Sometimes the injection turns black and blue.

None of these things can be helped. The injection sites are the upper arm, the stomach and the upper thigh. The stomach is the one that gets me. I'm fat and can't see the injection site. Yea, I know, I am on a diet. Lost 22 lbs. Anyhow! Oral-Lyn is a welcome addition to my fight to stay alive. Its not a cure all. To date nothing has cured diabetes, but it sure as hell will make life better for me. It won't stop all of the pricking of my skin though. I still have to test my blood sugar levels. So I stick a pin in my fingers 3 times a day, sometimes 4 or 5 times a day. Boy if they could figure a way to check the sugar level in the blood without sticking a needle in my skin I would be walking on air. I'm sure that will come some day, but for now I can hardly wait for Oral-Lyn. AND you bet your ass I own this stock. Any company that saves me this much pain deserves my support.

03/19/06 09:37 am
Msg: 128601 of 128696

I feel your pain, at least in my fingers.   I am a type 2 diabetic so although I test my blood sugar 3X daily I do not have to inject myself would insulin.  I cannot imagine having to do that.
Would it be nice for some journalist to do a story on someone in Ecuador who is now using Oral-lyn and how it has changed their life?  We all know what Ora-Lyn can do.  We need a personal up close if you will news story.

This would be huge for GNBT but even more to the people like you, to give them hope in disposing those needles forever.

My repost from Yahoo MB:

03/19/06 12:53 pm
Msg: 128714 of 128714, Msg: 128720 of 128747, Msg: 128743 of 128748

I am an aggressive technical swing trader and normally would recommend that you take profit at this point as RSI is above 70-80+ and MACD having reached the positive terriotory in just 4 days from the negative rebounding point.  However, because the buy interest has been so high last week (almost 30% gain last week!) with increasing volume as we approached the end of the trading week (typically stocks sell off on Friday afternoon as daytraders and position/trend traders close out their trades), GNBT GAINED on Friday afternoon - very bullish indicators for Monday market open.  We are certainly due for some profit taking, but I believe it will be short lived or overcome within intraday.

I have been trading GNBT since sub-$1 range and what I see is the same as NVAX and VPHM of last year ($1 to $6 for NVAX and $2 to $22 for VPHM).

If you run the 1 year weekly chart with MA 5/10, RSI and MACD, chart is very bullish and RSI has already surpassed the previous profit taking run of Oct-Nov: (remember this is a 1 year weekly chart, not daily)  http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui

I rarely go long on a stock, but I am recommending that you hold GNBT long at least until $5-$10+ range.  Any more good PR/news/patents (newest one was issued in Mexico for Oral-lyn in March 2006), GNBT has the potential to go much higher.

Yes, there will be profit taking activities along the way as GNBT climbs, but many are kicking themselves for having sold NVAX or VPHM at $2-$3 range when these stocks went much higher.

The key is MACD.  GNBT experienced sustained gain during Jan-Feb with MACD in the positive territory.  The early March dip was due to release of warrants which allowed Generex to raise much needed capital and they currently hold $31 million, which is the best cash position they have held in history.  The balance of warrants to be exercised is small (about 800,000 left) and should not affect GNBT price since its daily trading volume is so high right now.  The release of warrants was a win-win for Generex and traders because it generated working capital for Generex and allowed many to buy GNBT shares on dip.

I anticipate that as long as MACD remains in the positive territory, GNBT will sustain its steady climb towards $5 - $10+ range.  Generex has been very active and I anticipate that they will continue to keep releasing pertinent PR/news about the status of their product pipelines.

BTW, like many bio-tech stocks, GNBT was trading at $10 - $25 range in 2000 and dropped with the rest of the bio-tech sector.  Many bio-tech stocks that are Avian plays have made their rebounds (like NVAX) and others are making steady comebacks as sector as a whole has received new buying interest and long-term gain prospects with higher and higher analyst targets (NVAX went from $3 in December with analyst target of $6 and now trades at $7+ with increased analyst target of $10).

At $1, I said GNBTwas cheap.  At $2-$3, GNBT is still cheap. With Generex having great pipelines such as Oral-lyn and Avian vaccine development, as price gains, it will draw the attention of more individual retail traders/investors and Mutual/Hedge/Institutional fund managers' interest.  At $3 - $5, GNBT will be a bargain for fund managers looking for non-injectable insulin play.  After last week, GNBT will rise above many stock radars and start qualifying for these "serious" long-term investment money.

slurppy123 posted on Yahoo MB that AMGN once traded at $2.    Yes, I have traded AMGN before and for Generex to reach such price levels, it will need to continue to grow and improve their company fundamentals.  Generex is a tiny mico-cap bio-tech company with huge growth potential.  If they manage and grow the company well, world-wide market distribution of their buccal delivery lines of products (like Oral-lyn) may take them to AMGN levels.

Time will tell.

Thanks digitaltradz for the post from Yahoo MB:

03/19/06 03:13 pm
Msg: 128845 of 129032

CEOCast NEWS JUST OUT---

New 52-week high: Shares of Generex Biotechnology Corporation (NASDAQ: GNBT), a leader in the area of buccal drug delivery, reached a 52-week high of $2.98 after the company announced additional preliminary results (10 weeks) of a long-term (six month) clinical trial of Generex Oral-lyn, the company's proprietary oral insulin spray product, in adolescent and young adult patients with Type-1 diabetes mellitus. This data showed that adolescents and young adults with diabetes continued to control their blood sugar levels when they switched in a clinical trial from injectable insulin to a kind that can be sprayed into the mouth. In the first 10 weeks of a six-month trial Type 1 diabetes patients started off with standard insulin injections to stabilize their blood sugar, and then switched over to the oral insulin spray Oral-lyn around the fifth week where patients' blood sugar levels remained stabilized into the tenth week of the study. Additionally, Generex announced that it has been granted a patent by the Mexico National Registry of Patents titled "Proteinic Drug Delivery System Using Aerosolized Membrane-Mimetic Amphiphiles." The patent, an extant United States Patent registered by the company, relates to an improved delivery system for the administration of large-molecule pharmaceuticals, particularly through the oral and nasal membranes. The patent covers formulations for the delivery of peptidic drugs, vaccines, and hormones and enhances the company's existing drug delivery platform patent portfolio. The stock climbed 74 cents to close the week at $2.94.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=GNBT

= Rotational Swing Trading Template Update =

Ok, I finished my first "Beta" draft of the Rotational Swing Trading Template (see below).  It is the first version and I need to put it to test next.

Like the Short/Mid-term Templates, it will continue to evolve and be refined as time goes on.  Take a look at the Instructions and the Template itself and see what you think.

The Short/Mid-term Template represents the smallest of the Elliott Wave Theory wave patterns and the next group of wave patterns while the Rotational Swing Trading Template allows the trader to simplify the lining up and timing of the buy/sell cycles of multiple qualifying trending stocks on a single template. 

= For newbies to swing trading = Since the Rotational Swing Trading Template is a Beta draft version, please master the effective use of the Short-term Swing Trading Template before moving on to the Mid-term or Rotational Swing Trading.  However, you are more than welcome to practice the more advanced template use "on paper."

Have fun and enjoy! 

I also added this post to the Knowledge Base:
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=3633.msg32636#msg32636