3SOF

The market seems to be evolving in lower lows and possibly lower highs. For tomorrow the upper limit for the channel is 1202 points.

... the VXN hit Thurday it's all time low:

... at the 4490 zone tomorrow.

Quote from: David Randolph on May 30, 2005, 05:50:22 PM
The market seems to be evolving in lower lows and possibly lower highs. For tomorrow the upper limit for the channel is 1202 points.

I'm sorry if my question isn't suitable for this short-term trading board. Unfortunately, I'm "small investor" and newbie in technical analysis and also in the speculative trading, so I was really surprised when I found this excellent site. A lot of thanks to David, to Frederick and to all site's community. During last month I've learnt a lot....
To increase diversification, first of all, I have to expand my portfolio, so I decided to sell in the nearest future equities of S&P500 mutual fund. I bought them before Enron crash and saw a huge minus, but now I have a good profit and a hard question: "is it a good exit point now?" 
I'm afraid that S&P500 at the beginning of new strong decline.

Any suggestions and opinions will be appreciated 

PS: Sorry for my terrible English, as you see its not my native language...

The S&P found support at lower TL (1205) and has made a pretty nice 20 dollar move and stopped today right on the down TL. It will be interesting too see if the move up can continue ??

The SPX is at, or near, trendline support. Looking back at past indicator performance says that we could be nearing a ST bounce, maybe as soon as today??

The S&P found support Thur. @ lows at or near the 61% retrace and closed nicely for the day. Friday's bad data didn't make much difference with a really nice rebound. Not sure just how far the rebound may take us at this point. We have broken below the 2003 Bull Market trendline, below the lower support trendline, and have created a nice down channell that could take us lower. The lower parrell white channell lines say we could go too around 1150/1160 "if" the move up form here does not continue... I guess time will tell...... Good trading too all........

Anyone think this is not going through the 200 sma, uh fairly soon?

Yeah I think it will happen fairly soon, but I also believe it's insignificant. The 200 has been breached 4 times in the last two years of the bull. The channel, as displayed in this chart, I consider more relevant: http://tinyurl.com/gw4uk ... but even then there can be fakeouts. 

I only hope the significance will be a few good months of shorting.  Would certainly like to see a turnaround by for new highs by November.  Looks like we have to go down further this summer.

Unlike the other benchmarks, the S&P 500 had edged below its 50-day moving average, closing under that level for five straight sessions,June 25th-29th.
Yet despite its relative weakness, the S&P remains rangebound like the other benchmarks but went back above the 50-day MA on Monday and Tuesday 2nd and 3rd July.
The index has struggled with resistance at 1,540, while important support holds at the 1,487 June low.

The bigger picture

With recent losses, each major U.S. benchmark has been challenging its 50-day moving average.
Specifically:
The Dow industrials closed Monday June 25 at 13,352, or 29 points above its 50-day.
The Nasdaq closed Monday June 25 at 2,577, or 11 points above its 50-day.
The S&P closed Monday June 25 at 1,497, or nine points under its 50-day.
This is notable because the 50-day moving average is generally considered an intermediate-term trending indicator. A posture above the 50-day signals an uptrend, and a stance below it, a downtrend.
That means if each U.S. benchmark would break decisively under its 50-day, the U.S. markets' intermediate-term outlook would turn lower.
Yet even setting aside moving averages, there's a more important technical issue taking shape -- namely, the prospect of a bearish double-top formation.
The pattern has taken shape with two failed tests of the June highs:
The Dow industrials topped June 1 at 13,692 and June 15 at 13,688 -- four points apart.
The Nasdaq topped June 1 at 2,626 and June 20 at 2,634 -- eight points apart.
The S&P 500 topped June 1 at 1,540 and June 15 at 1,538 -- two points apart.
In each case above, the two peaks have come in the same general area, defining the pattern.
Still, the double-top formation won't be resolved until the major benchmarks violate the June low. Specifically:
The Dow's June low holds at 13,251, or 326 points under yesterday's close.
The Nasdaq's June low holds at 2,534, or 101 points under yesterday's close.
The S&P's June low holds at 1,487, or 37 points under yesterday's close.
So the support points above.....the June lows.....have taken on increased significance for the near-to-intermediate term.
But again, while a potential double-top formation has hit the radar screen, a true double-top won't take hold until the June lows are violated.
Setting aside the near-to-intermediate outlook, the primary uptrend's firmly intact.
That's partly because over the past two months, each major U.S. benchmark has broken decisively to new highs, concluding an extended seven-year consolidation phase.
And while interest rates have admittedly taken a disturbing turn for the worse, the steep move higher in yields is likely unsustainable for the near-to-intermediate term. That means while a longer, and somewhat deeper, consolidation phase may be in order after last week's pullback, the longer-term path of least resistance remains higher.


Below are the 6 month, 1 year, 2 year and 3 year charts.......

Reuters
S&P 500 hits lifetime record, surpasses Year 2000 high
Friday July 13, 2:50 pm ET


NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&P 500 index, a measure of the largest U.S. stocks, rose to a lifetime high on Friday on optimism about economic growth, corporate takeovers and profits.
The previous record of 1,553.11 was set on March 24, 2000.

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index (^SPX - News) was up 5.99 points, or 0.39 percent, at 1,553.69.

The Dow Jones industrial average (DJI:^DJI - News) was up 49.99 points, or 0.36 percent, at 13,911.72. The Nasdaq Composite Index (Nasdaq:^IXIC - News) was up 1.37 points, or 0.05
percent, at 2,703.10.


The S&P wanted that closing high today, and will add 10 points to that(with more short covering)...next week. 
Nice close yesterday (extra spike up on CCI) and the open today had a nice reversal 1545 level...CCI daily almost to the distribution side of the overbought level.

Technicals
Record Price High

Last Price Quote is:
1.71%above 13-day MA
2.83%above 50-day MA

Good Evening!

The market has been pretty violent during the last few weeks, volatility has been extreme, and every recent movement tends to look fast and erratic. I was Bullish a few weeks ago, I was Neutral last week, and now I’m not quite sure yet… so I’m taking the SPX for an overview, and will try to elaborate a classic technical analysis on the index to see if I can get some bearing out from this point

Let’s begin with the main chart of the SPX’s Bull Market since 2003:



Looking to this chart, and even after the recent massacre, the Bull Market pattern is still intact, major highs and lows had been consecutively higher and even today’s low was still above the last relative low from March 2007. Also in this chart we can see that during today’s session the Long Term Support level has been tested, creating a powerful positive reaction right after that during the intraday.
Taking out a few exceptions, the time from a relative high and a relative low is always shorter than the time from a low to high, that means the sell-offs and corrections tend to be quicker than the rallies… being that quick, also means lot of fear every time it happens.

Looking to the short term chart:



After breaking its upper trading range to the upside and setting an all time historical High (above year 2000’s highs), the Index started a big sell-off, breaking down the bottom side of that trading range and moving right down to the Mid Term ascending support. Volatility then started to explode, with quick reactions to the upside several attempts to break the support level, two sessions ago the support was finally broken and the SPX started another free fall… until today’s mid session.

The 1370 price zone is an important technical reference, being a few ticks above the last relative low it’s also the current location of the Long Term Ascending Support (using a regular scale). So this powerful reaction to 1370 level is a good sign, especially with a candlestick like this one and with record volume recorded on the SPY ETF… in the other hand, using a semi-log scale we could point a lower support area 40 points below (1330).

Volatility is very high and its difficult to predict the next move, I would point the 1460 zone as a possible short term resistance, but once again, volatility tend to blur these technical levels sometimes.

One last chart, this one since 1988:



This chart has nothing special: the biggest Bull Market of all times, since 1982 to 2000, then the Bear Market of 2000-2003, then the current Bull Market and now what? a Double Top formation ? nha… I don’t believe in this type of pattern on a Long Term Chart like this one… I believe we are facing a big correction, probably bigger than others, but I think that if we haven’t found the bottom yet, that we have already done the hardest part and there’s not much downside potential from here.

Summary:
- The Bull Market pattern is still intact.
- Long Term Support tested today with strong volume and bullish candle.
- Not much downside potential.
- The highs of the year, not likely to be the highs of the current Bull Market.

My best regards to you all !

Good to hear from you, Rams !
Great work !! It  = Applaud, yet it doesn't say how much (value) it truly is to read a post from the "Rams"!!!!!!!
A pleasure to always read your post....

Great post, applaud.
Wish you would stick around more often.
Your food for thought is just what we need particularly when most of us are
not feeling happy about the market.
I'm only holding minimum positions, but agree with other guys that tomorrow
or monday may be a nice opportunity to get in again.

Best luck to all