3SOF

Good morning.

Very nice pre-market activity with bid at $3.10+ and 500,000+ shares traded.

Nice gain day for GNBT and NVAX! 

As I posted before, as RSI for both stocks are above 80+ and with the buying pressure and volume extremely high, daily volume and price activity must be used as the primary indicator on a day-to-day basis and less on the technicals.

GNBT gapped up right at market open and gained $0.39 (13.27%) to close at $3.33 and was up additional $0.12 (3.60%) in afterhour trading, finishing at $3.45!  All this while trading an amazing 27 million shares in volume which is almost 4 times the 3 month average of 6.9 million shares!  Wow!  There was a lot of talk of GNBT being overbought and due for profit taking over the weekend.  Well, I believe profit taking did take place, but as I posted this past weekend, with buying pressure so high, the profit taking may be short-lived or be "absorbed" intraday like what happened to NVAX last Friday.

NVAX also showed fairly early gain and continue to gain steadily all day long adding $0.95 (12.91%) to close at $8.31 and like GNBT was up additional $0.09 (1.08%) in afterhour trading to finish at $8.40!  15 million shares in volume traded is 3.5 times the 3 month average of 4.3 million shares.  Looks like Friday's intraday profit taking paved the way for NVAX to continue gaining into setting new 52 week high of today.

As I posted this weekend and last few weeks, Bio-tech sector and especially Avian plays have experienced a large drop post year 2000 and many have not rebounded fully.  With the Avian bird flu scare on the world-wide media 24/7, I believe this sector holds some nice stocks with growth potential.  As an example, GNBT was trading around $20-$25 range in 2000 and with promising PR/news/patents/sales of their product lines and continued Avian Vaccine development, GNBT and other Bio-tech stocks may well reach and surpass their previous trading ranges.

Time will tell, but I am all smiles here. 

Another Bio-tech stock I have been monitoring, but have not covered is HEB because of its low daily and average trading volume.  I normally only cover stocks with higer than 1 million daily volume and HEB broke through that mark recently.

If HEB continues to maintain the volume level, I will continue to cover until MACD and RSI reaches previous profit taking levels of 80.  Will HEB surpass previous profit taking levels like GNBT and NVAX?  We can monitor this stock and keep applying the Swing Trading Template and see if it does.

GNTA is another stock I monitor for my 20-40 stock list.  Last week, I was not sure of the true rebounding activity so I did not post (in midst of GNBT 30% gain frenzy  ), but GNTA continues to improve the technical indicators.

The daily volume has fallen, and I attribute this partly to the massive volume of buying activity of Avian related Bio-tech stocks like GNBT and NVAX.  If the rebound continues with sustained volume levels, GNTA may rise to the previous profit taking levels.

= Rotational Swing Trading =

Those that are thinking about putting the "Beta" Rotational Swing Trading Template to the trial test, consider this.  I am putting together my 2-5 lists of stocks to use for my Rotational Swing Trading, and volatile stocks such as HEB and GNTA with predictable MACD/RSI swings are what I am looking for.

Stocks such as GNBT with almost linear gain pattern should be held "long-term" or until technicals indicate that the stock is becoming more volatile.  GNBT is my first "long" recommendation and coming from this aggressive swing trader, it means a lot to those that follow this MB.

I will continue to chronicle my trial of the Rotational Swing Trading Template with other qualifying stocks.  To be continued ...

Good morning.

News of NVAX releasing 5.2 million shares at $7.30 has lowered the premarket trading at about $7.76 with 2 million shares already traded.  I recommend selling NVAX and buying back on rebound.
http://yahoo.reuters.com/stocks/QuoteCompanyNewsArticle.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20060321:MTFH35645_2006-03-21_13-33-46_BNG205955&symbol=NVAX.O&rpc=44


GNBT is already trading at $3.54 ($0.20 more since yesterday's close and even afterhour trading of $3.45!) moving over 900,000 shares!

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060320/bird_flu_mover.html?.v=1
Investors Buy Into Bird Flu
Monday March 20, 4:48 pm ET
Bird Flu Vaccine Maker Shares Jump on Heightened Fears

NEW YORK (AP) -- As U.S. health and government officials nervously wait for the bird flu to land on U.S. soil, investors wasted no time in buying up shares of companies working on avian flu vaccines and treatments.

= I am speechless = WOW =

As of market open this morning, I was vested 100% in GNBT after NVAX news of releasing 5.2 million shares.

GNBT gapped up again at market open and I thought the brief selling might indicate much anticipated profit taking activity, but GNBT rebounded right back to the market open price and continue to have "stellar" gain in the afternoon with the gain of $0.90 (27.03%) and traded a whopping 41 million shares which is almost 6 times the 3 month average volume!!!  Truely amazing!!!

GNBT's afternoon gain comes in light of market's general fall in the afternoon.  Perhaps many bio-techs and other stocks sold off and bought GNBT as represented by the comparison intraday chart.

As I posted before, I will use daily volume and price activity as my primary indicator until GNBT becomes more trendable.

For some reason, AVAN, which is a stock I also have been monitoring but the technical indicators have been getting worse the last two days with relatively low volume, but shot up $0.66 (35%) to close at $2.54 while trading 6.7 million shares.  This is with no release of PR/news today.

I am puzzled.  Was this because of GNBT being the lowest priced Avian Bio-tech stock (for now  ) with huge growth potential (due to non-injectable oral insulin and buccal delivery system) and AVAN got a "me too" spiking gain?  If anyone knows why AVAN spiked up today I would appreciate it.

I think they got $40 M

For many that asked about the long-term future of GNBT:

I stated since the $1-$2+ range that I see Generex as the "best micro-cap bio-tech Avian play" with the best long-term growth potential due to non-injectable oral insulin (Oral-lyn) already marketed in Ecuador with recent patent from Mexico and 'Fast Track' application to Canada's equivalent of US FDA.  In addition, Generex is an Avian play, which makes this stock more attractive than your regular Avian stock due to Oral-lyn and patented buccal delivery system pipelines: http://patft.uspto.gov/netacgi/nph-Parser?Sect1=PTO2&Sect2=HITOFF&p=1&u=%2Fnetahtml%2Fsearchbool.html&r=0&f=S&l=50&TERM1=generex&FIELD1=&co1=AND&TERM2=&FIELD2=&d=ptxt

Yes, GNBT is my first "long-term" recommendation made on this Swing Trading MB for the reasons mentioned.  GNBT has much more to gain as Avian bird flu spreads to US.  First news of Avian bird flu case discovered in US will push many Avian stocks even higher than they are trading right now. http://www.generex.com/news/

Near-term, I believe the $5-$10 range is very achievable.  With anticipated PR/news of Avian spread to US and Oral-lyn sales/approvals, $20 may not be too far of a target with current rate of gain with sustained buying interest for GNBT that's been demonstrated this year.

= Rotational Swing Trading Template Trial update =

Here's the trial Rotational Swing Trading Template in action.  As you can see, I am holding GNBT long-term until it becomes more trendable.

HEB is the first Rotational Swing Trading stock and should continue to gain until technical indicators move from HOLD to SELL column.

Good morning.

Wow, GNBT already trading at $4.41 premarket with over 1 million shares traded!

= update = Now trading at $4.29 premarket with over 1.2 million shares traded.

= update = Now trading back up at $4.32 premarket.  Looks to be a volatile day.

What happened to GNBT this afternoon is suspicious.

According to Yahooo, Generex financials were released at 9:00 AM EST (6:00 AM PST) and this should have had an affect early not during the last hour of trading.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=GNBT

There has been some talk of profit taking as GNBT approaches the $5 mark, but the sudden drop in the afternoon seems much more than that.  On Yahoo MB today, there's some talk about stock manipulations by MM's, but I am not sure if that's all there is.

Good news is that GNBT had a very strong rebound during after hours trading of $0.1555 (4.82%).  Many stocks would be happy to see 4.8% gain during a trading day!    If this represents anything, I am not sure if MM's have much control during after hour trading.  What happens pre-market tomorrow morning should tell us more about GNBT.

I've been trading GNBT since the sub-$1 range and have very comfortable "pad" on GNBT.  I have experienced with NVAX that popular fast gaining stocks become volatile at times as profit margins grow very high.  Regardless of what caused today's drop (I assume the release of financials and many taking short-term profit as GNBT approached $5 mark), with today's large drop, I anticipate a rebounding gain as elements of GNBT and future growth potential remain the same.

I am still long on GNBT.  As I always post, if you are "nervous" or "uncomfortable" about a stock at anytime, you can sell and buy back on rebound or when your comfort levels improve.  Stock trading certainly has its share of risks.  If you are not aware of these risks and are not willing to take these risks for your overall portfolio gains, then there are always mutual funds.

= update = Many on Yahoo MB are posting that they took profit today and will be buying back tomorrow.  With such a large drop, this far surpasses "profit taking" and I anticipate a rebounding day because many traders will hope to capitalize on buying back at the lowest "bottom" of profit taking sessions.  Time will tell.

Hello LL

Hope GNBT will rebound. I am learning a lot from you.

Today I noticed STTK which looks similar to GNBT and has more volume because of recent company news. What do you think about it?

Ok, I can dust myself from the fall and "examine" the bigger picture.

If you look at the BUY/SELL points chart, today's SELL was indicated by RSI "overbought" condition with very rapid peaking of MACD.  Holding a long position with GNBT, I was prepared for a 5% profit taking, and perhaps even 10% drop.  I was not ready for a 23% drop in one day (actually 19% drop if you take into account of 4.8% gain in after hours trading) 

I have traded GNBT since the sub-$1 range and have a very comfortable "padding" built in.  It would have been nice to take profit today and buy back tomorrow (I am certain many who took profit today will do just that).  This newbie is still learning. 

sivgeet, I also ran the BUY/SELL points chart for STTK and you can see that RSI and MACD peaking is similar to GNBT.  I recommend that STTK has reached the qualifying SELL point with RSI indicating "overbought" condition with MACD peaking.  If STTK continues to gain, it will be a short-lived gain.