3SOF

Not enough updates on open positions with stuff falling fast.

OPWV was not very nice to those who bought that breakout with volume like I did. But there's no mistake, the trend is bullish on this stock. So I will hold on to the stock as long as the trend remains bullish.

OPWV had a different kind of breakout when compared to DHB, that's why I'm keeping OPWV and selling DHB. Here's why:

OPWV has an ascending trend. The breakout was just for the uptrend to accelerate. But as we see now, the stock, or the market, weren't ready yet.

DHB was trying to reverse a bearish trend. Being unable to do that a trader stands with nothing, he can't hold on to the breakout because it doesn't exist anymore, and he can't hold on to the trend because the trend is bearish !

See the difference?

I'm keeping OPWV in the 3SF portfolio as long as the stock closes within this upward channel:

OPWV rose 3.5% yesterday as it should, given the uptrend that's in place. I wonder if the stock won't need a bit more consolidation before it breaks this $17 - $18 area. I have a plan to trade this stock, and the plan is: hold as long as the stock closes above the lower uptrend on the chart.

No surprises in OPWV, the stock indeed needed more consolidation. The truth will come tomorrow when the stock faces it's ascending trendline at $16.17. Did we have a false breakout? Or the stock is just consolidating to the uptrend line before it shoots to the upside?

I don't know the answer. The only thing I know is that trends usually persist, that is, the probability is always higher for the trend to continue than to reverse. As a trader I must play on probabilities (although as a human being I sometimes make the mistake of going against probabilities - you people learn from my mistakes as from my successes).

So, only OPWV knows her future, my decision to hold or sell is totally in her hands. Close>$16.17 = Hold. Close<$16.17 = Sell.

on the yahoo board they are saying a triple bottom is in place the last 5 days (including last friday)

do u agree?

Quote from: Rocket8 on July 01, 2005, 01:37:01 AM
on the yahoo board they are saying a triple bottom is in place the last 5 days (including last friday)

do u agree?

I'd say that it's important for the stock to hold the 16.25-16.26 area because OPWV is showing signs of technical weakness:

The June 22 breakout above 17.17 ended in a 3-day Bearish Evening Doji Star Pattern that closed well below the 17.17 breakout on the third day. 

An Evening Doji Star Pattern is a major top reversal pattern formed by three candlesticks, and is considered to be more bearish than the regular Evening Star reversal, because of the doji star.

The first candlestick of the pattern is a tall white real body (June 22 breakout).  The second day, in this case, is the doji star.  It makes a "higher high" than the white candle, but closes unchanged, or near unchanged.  The third day is a black candle that closes well within the first sessions real body.  In this case, it closed below 63% of the big white candle.

As with all patterns, you need confirmation of the bullishness or bearishness in the following days from the candles and the technicals.

The day after the Bearish Evening Doji Star, MACD went back below its signal line, after making a lower high than the high it made it early June.  That's called a negative divergence, and  a non-confirmation of the new high made in the stock.

When OPWV rallied on June 28, MACD went back slightly above the signal line.  At that point, it needed to keep going higher, or it would slip back below the signal line once again.  A "refusal" at the signal line, so to speak.  June 29, all of the prior day's gains were given back, and MACD fell back below the signal line.

It's important that the lows that you mentioned hold because there's confirmation in both the price action of the stock and in the technicals, that the Bearish Evening Doji Star pattern really is bearish.

http://ts-lc.sc8.finance.lycos.com/1120211533190?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=NASDAQ:OPWV&Interval=D&Permission=1000&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=2&Study=MACD&Param1=12&Param2=26&Param3=9&FontSize=10&LocaleID=0x0409

OPWV tried to come back, but the general market didn't let it. Anyway the candlesticks weren't set for a rebound yet. Today the uptrendline will be at $16.27. I don't want to see OPWV closing below this trendline.

Quote from: Rocket8 on July 01, 2005, 01:37:01 AM
on the yahoo board they are saying a triple bottom is in place the last 5 days (including last Friday)

do u agree?

I don't believe in chart patterns coming out of intraday data. I've day traded futures for some years and after a while I stopped using traditional technical analysis on my day trading.

Quote from: Melf Elf on July 01, 2005, 06:36:30 AM
[I'd say that it's important for the stock to hold the 16.25-16.26 area because OPWV is showing signs of technical weakness:
The June 22 breakout above 17.17 ended in a 3-day Bearish Evening Doji Star Pattern that closed well below the 17.17 breakout on the third day. 

An Evening Doji Star Pattern is a major top reversal pattern formed by three candlesticks, and is considered to be more bearish than the regular Evening Star reversal, because of the doji star.

OPWV currently is 16.22 BID...16.23 ASK.  Short-term support is broken.

QuoteIt's important that the lows that you mentioned hold because there's confirmation in both the price action of the stock and in the technicals, that the Bearish Evening Doji Star pattern really is bearish.

Today's price action is additional confirmation.  I like David's stop, technically. 

Hourly Chart:

http://ts-lc.sc8.finance.lycos.com/1120234327424?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=NASDAQ:OPWV&Interval=60&Permission=1000&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=2&Study=&Param1=&Param2=&Param3=&FontSize=10&LocaleID=0x0409

I consider myself as a disciplined trader, but I'm not a machine. Humans have many disadvantages against machines in trading, but they have some advantages ... you see, I had set a stop loss rule for OPWV which consisted on selling after a close below the blue ascending trendline.

But, since support and resistance levels are a memory phenomena, I believe, and experience shows, that horizontal support and resistance levels show more relevancy than oblique lines.

I see a short term support in the $15.97-$16 level. So I'll give a bit more room for OPWV to alaborate and sell only if the stock closes below $15.97. I'm a bit tired of selling stocks with strong technicals just before they rally (as happened recently with RHAT).

Technical analysis is not mathematics, so I'll probably have to adjust my trendline to that minor break that occurred on Friday.

OPWV still shows a bullish trend, I'll hold the stock.

It's real, I had to adjust my trendline on OPWV. The market action yesterday was encouraging, we've had a white candle on higher volume. Now I want to see the stock close above $17.17 to take away the possibility of an head and shoulders pattern.

If we get that close above $17.17, just looking at the chart and take as a given that there won't be any unexpected fundamental developments, we have a pretty good chance of making a new short term high, above $18.18.

Hi, I'm new to this site and i'm long on OPWV since Sep 04(average of 9.66$).
I never traded it but i now regret it because i missed some great opportunities, I'm willing to change my 'strategy' and the information i find here looks perfect to help me with this.
Keep up the good work guys!

p.s. OPWV looking good today, currently at 17.55$, curious what you further predictions are ...

It was wise to give some time to OPWV to work this breakout zone. The stock rose 3.5% on Friday and the uptrending channel upper limit is just at $19.21 for today.

It's really paying of to have some patience with OPWV. After all, the stock was set to breakout higher, but it had a pullback on profit taking.

At this moment there's no doubt the breakout above the $17.71 long term resistance was made and this formation gives me a potential rise to somewhere around $30