3SOF

Here's a recent example of sustained gain with very high RSI as long as MACD remains in the positive territory.

I know, I watch SWB, but it is a low volume stock.  I use the daily volume of at least 1 million for the Swing Trading MB.

May be I will have a sub-section that tracks low volume high gainer. 

Good morning,

Premarket action is very positive!  Bids already up $0.3555 (11.02%) at $3.58.

= update = premarket around $3.55 at 10%+ gain.

= update = premarket back upto $3.57 at 10.7% gain at 06:16!

= update = back up to $3.58 at 06:21!

= update = pushing through $3.60 at 06:29 with over 2.5 million shares traded!

I have a good feeling about rebounding today.

Nice rebounding day for GNBT.

I posted yesterday that the sudden large drop in the last hour of trading was suspicious.  Certainly there has been much discussion on the MBs as to the drop being an "over-reactive" price correction to stock manipulatin by MM's.  I will post more on this later.

GNBT rebounded with the gain of $0.27 (8.23%) after jumping up at market open to $3.60.  GNBT went through several cycles of rise/fall intraday, representing the extension of profit taking of yesterday afternoon (With such swings intraday, you also have to factor in daytraders activities).    31 million shares were traded, which is more than three times the 3 month average volume of 9.4 million shares.

With yesterday's large drop, RSI is now below 70, but as RSI rebounds back above 70, I want you to compare GNBT with SWB's extended gain run even with RSI at 70-80+ as long as MACD remained in the positive territory.

In regards to yesterday's sudden price drop, here's the post from Knobias.com:

http://www.knobias.com/individual/public/news.htm?eid=3.1.55678c031047d0363d375917bc21609757b17f7354aeb4b1cce45789bb535cf4

GNBT: Shares Rebounding After Hit From Rumor
Thursday , March 23, 2006 09:56 ET

"Bird flu" is the new Wall Street buzz word. How long it lasts is another thing all together. Migratory patterns and length of time between migrations isn't exactly the expertise of those who read and write this.  "China" is still around today as it has been for the past 5 years, while the "internet" has been replaced by words like "wireless" or "RFID", even though the latter isn't really related to the internet, it is technology based. These buzz words usually are associated with companies that do not make any money at all and are easily susceptible to any type of outside influence. If a Blue Jay coughs outside the window of President Bush, the stock shoots up 10%. If a few message boarders and chat roomers ban together to spread rumors about a company's product, what happened Wednesday to Generex Biotech Corp (GNBT) will happen.

The company is engaged in the research and development of drug delivery systems and technology. To date, it has focused on developing a platform technology for the buccal delivery – delivery to the oral cavity for absorption through the inner mouth mucosa – of drugs that historically have been administered only by injection. The Company's buccal delivery technology has application to a large number of drugs.

But the company has also become deeply intertwined into the bird flu vaccine search. Just recently, they presented its findings at the Third Annual DNA Vaccines Forum in London. Leading up to the presentation and following it, shares continued their rally until Wednesday when a rumor was floated about the company's vaccine. Also mentioned was the idea that the company was located in a condo and that they had only a couple of employees. The results were disastrous to longs and joyful for those who could find shorts.

In any event, shares have rebounded by 10%, after shorts and conspirators made their chunk of change. Industry competitors NVAX and HEB are also trying to go green after their two day plunge.

Just don't think that the bird flu era is over with this move the past two days and if you see a blue jay blowing its nose, run the other way.

Here's another post regarding yesterday's drop from traderflash.com:

http://www.traderflash.com/Commentary/Swing-Trading/gnbt-update.html

GNBT: Trading Update
by Justin Kuepper

We first featured GNBT back when it was at $2.60 on March 16th. Since then, the stock had risen almost $5.00 before retreating during yesterday's trading to around $3.25. This retreat caused a shake-out, during which many position traders took profit. What's the situation now? Let's take a look at the chart: (see below)

Yesterday's downward move was accurately pinned using Fibonacci extensions (not shown for chart clarity, but notice the retracements coinside with key price levels). Now we see that the price has retraced to the first Fibonacci support level at around $3.40. Why did this occur? Well, financials were released; however, this was at 9:00AM, and the stock didn't move down until just before 3:00PM. This leads us to believe that the move was most likely due to swing traders taking profits. It is important to note, however, that the numbers released were not good, but speculation of the drug data makes those numbers irrelevant in the eyes of many (priced for potential, if you will).

From here, the price could either rebound from yesterday's trading (if all swing positions have exited), in which case the best entry is at $2.95 - $3.00. Or, the stock could retrace further to the key support area of $2.40 - $2.50 (if trading remains bearish). It would require strong selling to move below this point. Be careful to watch the volume numbers and direction during the first few hours of trading (not premarket), and to keep tight stops. Also, keep an eye out for future results regarding its Oral-lyn drug, as this is what everyone is banking on.

Here is another post by AntandSons.com

http://www.antandsons.com/blogger.html

posted by Ant & Sons at 2:09 PM  March 23, 2006

Generex Biotech's Wild Ride on Insulin Product
Generex Biotech (Nasdaq: GNBT) has continued to rise since last week, jump started by early data from a clinical trial that showed its insulin product Oral-lyn was effective in controlling blood sugar levels in adolescents and young adults with type 1 diabetes. The rally topped off yesterday with a new annual high of $5.02 that quickly evaporated in late day trading in the midst of unexplainable heavy selling during the last hour of trading. Today, however, investors and institutions are supporting shares that have become a bit more reasonably priced. Generex stock is now up $.26 to $3.48, looking to break out higher above $3.50, on three times average daily volume.

This story by USA Today is very worthy of mention since it "showcases" GNBT as the "leading" Avian flu vaccine stock.  Yes, this is "USA TODAY" - a mainstream media publication that is read worldwide.  And they list Generex as the "leading Avian stock" to invest!  Very nice indeed.

Will this article bring more buying interest to Generex in the future?  You bet![/b]

http://www.usatoday.com/money/markets/us/2006-03-22-bird-flu-usat_x.htm?csp=34

Posted 3/22/2006 10:15 PM     Updated 3/23/2006 12:42 AM
   
Wall Street lays plans in case bird flu strikes
By Adam Shell, USA TODAY
NEW YORK — Bird flu has yet to come even close to the USA's borders, but Wall Street analysts are already crafting advice on how investors can inoculate their portfolios if a pandemic breaks out.

Not since the SARS scare in Asia in spring 2003 — when Hong Kong stocks plunged 10% in six weeks before rebounding after the virus stopped spreading — has a health-related crisis put investors on edge.

Wall Street, which makes its living betting on what the future may look like, has been busy concocting what-if scenarios, handicapping winning and losing stock sectors, and educating clients in the science of bird flu. Recent ink devoted to the H5N1 virus:

•Special report. Citigroup recently sent clients a comprehensive 46-page report on bird flu that includes a brief history of the virus, risk factors and stock picks. The report was compiled by stock strategists, economists, government policy experts, epidemiologists and currency analysts from Europe, Japan, Australia and the USA.

•Stocks to watch. TrendMacro, an investment strategy firm that caters to big institutional investors, created an Avian Flu Index in October that now consists of 17 health care stocks that develop vaccines, anti-virals and other products likely to be in great demand if the avian flu scare morphs from a mere threat to deadly killer.

•First of a series. David Kotok, chief investment officer at Cumberland Advisors, on Friday released the first in a series of reports that will focus on the financial risks and psychological impact on investors.

"We thought it was important to get ahead of the curve on something that's going to become of increasing concern to the capital markets as the disease spreads," says Paul Heldman, senior health policy analyst at Citigroup.

Birds could reach USA in months

Avian flu primarily affects poultry but on rare occasions can infect humans, says the World Health Organization. More than 100 people have died from the virus since 2003, WHO says.

Earlier this week, U.S. government officials said migrating birds infected with avian flu may reach the USA within months. The virus has already spread across Europe, Asia and Africa.

The fear is that H5N1 will adapt into a strain that can be transmitted from human to human. If a fully contagious virus emerges, its global spread is considered inevitable because people will lack immunity to the virus, WHO says. Given inadequate supplies of medicines to fight the virus, large numbers of deaths could occur. So could massive economic and social disruptions.

On the list

That's why Wall Street has added bird flu to its list of market negatives that include terrorism, protectionism, rising interest rates and Iran's nuclear ambitions.

"Why should investors care about the risk of a pandemic? Because the risk of a planetwide outbreak is very real. It's happened before," says Donald Luskin, chief investment officer at TrendMacro.

The 20th century had three influenza pandemics:

The Spanish Flu in 1918 killed an estimated 50 million people, WHO says. The Dow Jones industrial average suffered a maximum loss of 11.1% in the peak death period, according to data compiled by Ned Davis Research (NDR).

The Asian Flu in 1957 and the Hong Kong Flu in 1968 resulted in estimated deaths of 2 million and 1 million, respectively, says WHO. The Dow fell almost 14% in 1957 and nearly 9% in 1968, NDR says.

The scenarios

How stocks do this time depends on what plays out:

•Best-case scenario. Markets will cheer if the virus never becomes transmissible from human to human. In that case, Luskin says, investors can make money investing in companies that make vaccines and testing therapies.

Examples, he says, include Gilead Sciences, the inventor of the anti-viral drug Tamiflu, which is being stockpiled by governments around the globe; Hemispherx Biopharma, which is seeking final approval for its anti-viral drug Ampligen; and Sinovac Biotech, a Chinese vaccine maker.

•SARS-like scenario. A mild pandemic that is contained could add up to a buying opportunity, says Citigroup's Heldman. Many of the stocks likely to decline from flu-related panic selling, such as airlines (Continental), hotels (Hilton) and shopping malls (Simon Property) would likely enjoy rebounds.

•Worst-case scenario. That's if a full pandemic hits, the economy shuts down, people die. Airlines, hotels and other businesses that involve travel or crowds will fall sharply. Citigroup says shares of drug companies, vaccine makers, and hospital and health care stocks (Tenet, Community Hospitals) will rise. Home entertainment providers, such as Blockbuster, should fare well. So, too, could safe investments such as Treasury bonds and cash.

But, "The losers will come under severe pressure," says Heldman. Adds Luskin: "It will be like Hurricane Katrina on a global scale."

Woody Dorsey, behavioral market strategist at Market Semiotics, says the fact that the virus can spread quickly and cause widespread havoc means it is likely to be more damaging to the economy and financial markets than a terrorist attack or severe hurricane.

"We're moving into a 'bio-era' where computer viruses, physical viruses and fear move around the world quickly," he says. "It's the downside of globalization."

Wow, this is eye opening!  Thanks creekrat88 for the post from Yahoo MB.

Kinda, makes some sense as to what goes on at the stock market place.  There's a discussion on Yahoo MB as to how much of this still goes on.  Makes you ponder.  Hmmmmm. 

03/23/06 08:51 pm
Msg: 148620 of 148790

http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/stocks/brokerages/10273590.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA

Hedge Fund Shells Out in Shorting Probe

By Matthew Goldstein
Senior Writer
3/14/2006 2:19 PM EST
Click here for more stories by Matthew Goldstein

A New York hedge fund manager will pay $16 million to settle allegations arising out of a two-year-old investigation into manipulative trading in the market for private placements by small-cap companies.

The penalty agreed to by Jeffrey Thorp is the largest settlement assessed to date by the Securities and Exchange Commission in the investigation into trading abuses in the $18 billion-a-year market for PIPEs, or private investment in public equity.

The PIPEs investigation is focusing on allegations of abusive short-selling by hedge funds trying to take advantage of the usual decline in shares of companies that sell these deals.

A short-sale is a market bet that a stock will decline in price.

Securities regulators, in a civil complaint filed in federal court as part of the settlement, charged Thorp with carrying out an illegal short-selling scheme involving 23 separate PIPE deals from 2000 to 2002. Regulators allege Thorp profited by engaging in "naked shorting,'' a manipulative practice that enables traders to defy the laws of supply and demand by shorting even when no shares are available to borrow.

In all, the SEC contends, Thorp generated $7 million in illicit profits from his illegal shorting scheme. As part of the settlement, Thorp agreed to forfeit those profits, plus $1.8 million interest. Thorp and his Langley Partners hedge fund agreed to pay $8 million in civil penalties.

The unlawful trading by Thorp, who could not be reached for comment, took place in PIPE deals by a number of well-known biotech firms: AVI BioPharma (AVII:Nasdaq), MGI Pharma (MOGN:NYSE) and Generex Biotechnology (GNBT:Nasdaq). Other PIPEs that regulators allege Thorp manipulated were ones by HealthExtras (HLEX:Nasdaq) and TiVo (TIVO:Nasdaq).[/b]

"This case is an example of our ongoing effort to stamp out fraud and abuses by investors in the PIPEs market, and it will continue,'' says Scott Friestad, associate director in the SEC's enforcement division.

The SEC contends Thorp carried out the naked-shorting scheme with the assistance of an unidentified Canadian broker. Over the years, critics of the PIPEs market often have alleged that U.S. hedge funds were carrying out abusive trading strategies in Canada, where the rules against naked shorting were less stringent.

A year ago, U.S. securities regulators, in part because of the PIPEs investigation, took steps to make it more difficult for traders to engage in naked shorting in this country. Friestad says he believes Canada has taken a similar action.

Regulators say the naked shorting scheme was critical to Thorp's strategy because it enabled him to make short bets on the shares of companies doing PIPE deals, even when no shares were available for him to borrow from a broker in the U.S. The naked shorting, according the complaint, enabled Thorp to "earn larger profits'' when a stock declined in price because he "had no borrowing limitations.''

In other words, the illegal strategy gave Thorp a big advantage over other investors in these PIPE deals who used legal means to short shares as a hedge against a decline in the price.

In a typical short sale, a trader borrows shares from a broker, sells them, and then hopes the stock falls so he can replace his borrowed stock at a lower price. The short-seller makes money by pocketing the difference between the borrowed shares he sold and the ones he purchased.

But in a naked short sale, a trader places short bets without actually borrowing the stock first, or even determining that any shares are available to borrow. This way, naked short-sellers are freed from a key check of the short-sale process -- the need to find willing stock lenders. Critics claim such operations create excessive downward pressure on certain stocks and can create chaos as buyers await undeliverable shares.

Left unchecked, naked shorting can lead to an anomalous situation in which the total number of shares sold short on a stock exceeds its float, or the number of shares available for trading.


On a similar note, here's some more info on the "not so straight" stock market:

The Associated Press/NEW YORK

http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D8GG5SIOF.htm?campaign_id=apn_home_down&chan=db

Day traders accused in securities scheme

MAR. 21 3:12 P.M. ET Several former and current officers, directors, and managers of a Manhattan day trading firm were charged Tuesday in a superseding indictment with participating in a "front-running" securities fraud scheme that generated more than $800,000 in illegal profits, prosecutors said.

New charges were filed against Robert F. Malin, vice chairman and president of A.B. Watley Group Inc., and Linus Nwaigwe, the company's director of compliance and a former National Association of Securities Dealers compliance examiner; Michael A. Picone, Watley's former chief operating officer, and Keevan H. Leonard, Watley's former supervisor of proprietary trading.

Also named in the superseding indictment were several people originally indicted in August 2005. They include Kenneth E. Mahaffy, Jr., a former Merrill Lynch & Co. and Citigroup Global Markets Inc. stock broker; Timothy J. O'Connell, a former Merrill stock broker; and David G. Ghysels, Jr., a former Lehman Brothers stock broker.

In addition to the criminal charges, the Securities and Exchange Commission filed a civil complaint against Malin, Nwaigwe, Picone and Leonard.

"Front-running" occurs when stock brokers inform traders outside the brokerage firm, such as day traders, that a customer of the brokerage firm has placed a large order to buy or sell a particular stock, prosecutors said. The information allows day traders to trade in the same stock before the customer's order is executed, in anticipation of a movement in price. As a result, the firm's customers often do not obtain as favorable a price as they might have.

Steven Scaring, counsel for Mahaffy, has not seen the new indictment yet, but expects that his client will plead not guilty to it as he did to the original indictment.

"We will try to get this case tried as soon as possible. Mr. Mahaffy fully expects to be vindicated," Scaring said.

O'Connell's lawyer, Mildred Whalen, also said she hadn't seen the superseding indictment. "But it is my understanding that there are no new charges against Mr. O'Connell, that the new indictment added on defendents," she said.

Attorneys representing Ghysels, Malin, Nwaigwe, Picone and Leonard were unavailable for comment.

The superseding indictment unsealed Tuesday alleges that between January 2002 and February 2004, Mahaffey, O'Connell, Ghysels and Coughlin routinely provided day traders at three New York City-based day trading firms with customer order information, which was disseminated through internal speaker systems, known as "squawk boxes."

Some of the brokers also accepted cash bribes from the day traders in exchange for squawk box access, prosecutors said.

The superseding indictment alleges that the day traders profited from the scheme by trading ahead of the large orders that were broadcast through the squawk boxes. When the squawk boxes disseminated information concerning a large sell order for a particular stock, the day traders would "short sell" the same securities before the larger order was executed.

Either way, the day traders profited from the movement in price, prosecutors said.

"By bribing unscrupulous stock brokers, the former A.B. Watley managers and day traders who were charged today were able to secretly tap into a steady flow of extremely valuable, confidential information from some of Wall Street's most well known institutions," U.S. Attorney Roslynn Mauskopf said in a statement.

Prosecutors also announced Tuesday that Paul F. Coughlin, another former Merrill broker, and William B. Deakins, a former Watley day trader, pleaded guilty to related charges of conspiracy to commit securities fraud for their roles in the scheme. Ralph D. Casbarro, another former Citigroup broker, pleaded guilty to conspiracy to commit securities fraud last October.

Attorneys for Coughlin and Deakins were also unavailable for comment.

Well, with all that behind now, how about a recap of oral-insulin spray "Oral-lyn" history for those new to Generex and "Oral-lyn" - Thanks tcaiboy for the link from Yahoo MB (I think we may need an "orientation and information" package or link for the new buyers of this great company): 

03/24/06 12:00 am
Msg: 148917 of 148917

http://www.webmd.com/content/Article/107/108564.htm?pagenumber=1

Insulin Mouth Spray Works Fast, Study Shows

Insulin Product Sprayed Inside Cheek, Still Awaits Approval
By Daniel DeNoon
WebMD Medical News    Reviewed By Brunilda  Nazario, MD
on Thursday, June 16, 2005

An insulin mouth spray works faster and seems to be just as effective as insulin injections, a new study shows.

The insulin mouth spray is a product called Oral-lyn from Generex Biotechnology in Toronto. A small Generex-funded study in Israel indicates that Oral-lyn might make life easier for some people with type 1 and type 2 diabetes that need insulin.

The study shows that the insulin mouth spray works faster than insulin injections, says Gerald Bernstein, MD, Generex vice president for medical affairs. Bernstein is a past president of the American Diabetes Association.

"The beauty of it is, it can be taken just before you eat and just after you eat," Bernstein tells WebMD. "This is a very fast insulin. It is regular insulin, which ordinarily is slow, but when sprayed into the mouth, it gets into the bloodstream very quickly."

Oral Insulin Spray Mimics Normal Insulin

When a healthy person eats a meal, blood sugar levels go above normal. This triggers the release of a hormone -- insulin -- which brings blood sugar levels back down again. This crucial mechanism is missing in people with type 1 diabetes and doesn't work well in people with type 2 diabetes.

Self-administered insulin injections offer control over spiking blood sugar. But it's tricky. The insulin injection has to be taken ahead of mealtime. And because insulin levels don't go down as soon as blood sugar is under control, a person may have to snack to avoid a blood-sugar crash.

And there's another issue. Many people, especially children with type 1 diabetes, dread having to take frequent insulin shots.

What's on the Horizon

That's why Generex -- and many other drug companies -- are working on different ways to deliver insulin. Other companies are developing inhaled insulin products, insulin skin patches, and even forms of insulin that can be swallowed.

The Oral-lyn study, by Simona Cernea, MD, and colleagues at Hadassah Hebrew University Hospital, in Jerusalem, looked at seven healthy volunteers. At different times, the volunteers took various doses of Oral-lyn ranging from five to 20 puffs or a placebo spray. They also received one injection of regular insulin.

The bottom line: Oral-lyn started working faster -- and quit working sooner -- than injections of regular insulin. The more puffs of insulin people sprayed into their mouths, the more insulin they had in their blood. The findings appear in the June issue of Diabetes Care.

That's good news, says Robert Rizza, MD, the newly installed president of the American Diabetes Association. Rizza is professor of medicine in the division of endocrinology, diabetes, nutrition, and metabolism at the Mayo Clinic College of Medicine in Rochester, Minn.

"In order to control blood sugar, you have to have a match between how quickly blood sugar goes up after you eat and how quickly insulin goes up," Rizza tells WebMD. "This paper shows a pretty good match. This gives yet another, perhaps a more convenient way to get that needed profile."

Is This Trip Really Necessary?

Insulin is one of the great breakthroughs for modern medicine. It's already saving untold numbers of lives. But are these new forms of insulin really something that will help patients?

Yes, says Rizza.

"Anything that makes insulin simpler and easier to take is a major step forward," he says. "Many people's blood sugars are higher than need be. But they wait too long to start taking insulin and subject their bodies to harm. So anything that allows you to control your blood sugar sooner is likely to be a benefit."

While the Oral-lyn product looks promising, Rizza notes that many other products are working their way through the clinical trial process.

"A lot of imaginative ways have been come up with to get insulin into the body," he says. "If they work out, it will be up to the individual person to decide what form is most convenient."

Bernstein says that Oral-lyn will soon be licensed in Ecuador, where diabetes researcher Jaime Guevara-Aguirre, MD, has been conducting clinical studies. Within the year, Bernstein expects definitive clinical trials to begin in Canada and in Europe. Still larger trials -- yet to be planned or even funded -- would be needed for U.S. approval.

SOURCES: Cernea, S. Diabetes Care, June 2005; vol 28: pp 1353-1357. Gerald Bernstein, MD, vice president for medical affairs, Generex Biotechnology, Toronto. Robert Rizza, MD, president, American Diabetes Association; professor of medicine, division of endocrinology, diabetes, nutrition, and metabolism, Mayo Clinic College of Medicine, Rochester, Minn.


For those new to GNBT, here's the link to Generex news:  http://www.generex.com/news/

My repost from Yahoo MB:

03/24/06 12:18 am
Msg: 148929 of 148929

gerraf54,

The world needs to know the "truth" about Generex and "Oral-lyn" for the "evolutionary" development of diabetes treatment.

Like what email/fax did for proliferation of communication compared to regular "snail mail," Generex and "Oral-lyn" will do for injected insulin!

NON-INJECTABLE INSULIN WILL HAPPEN ON A GLOBAL SCALE!!!

The only people who are fighting this are the big-pharma and manufacturers of insulin syringes who won't make money off Oral-lyn and buccal delivery system [patented by Generex].  http://patft.uspto.gov/netacgi/nph-Parser?Sect1=PTO2&Sect2=HITOFF&p=1&u=%2Fnetahtml%2Fsearchbool.html&r=0&f=S&l=50&TERM1=generex&FIELD1=&co1=AND&TERM2=&FIELD2=&d=ptxt

Think about it.  The "BIG" picture on a "GLOBAL" scale.

Here's a question from riverwins2001.

"I dont understand this technical analysis point would you expand?"


My response:

03/24/06 12:45 am
Msg: 148942 of 148944

riverwins2001,

Normally, for trending stocks, as RSI (Relative Strength Index) reaches previous profit taking levels (typically 70-80+) with corresponding MACD peaking, profit taking occurs and stock price falls until RSI and MACD bottoms. (see HEB chart below for example of trending stock)

When the buying pressure and trading volume is high (like GNBT has been), then instead of this normal rise/fall of RSI/MACD, the stock continues to gain in price as long as MACD remains in the positive territory (I used SWB as an example as the stock has continue to gain since January despite RSI having remained above 70-80+ with MACD in the positive territory. Infact, SWB gained again today.)

Dang, I forgot to post the latest Generex Insider buying info! 

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=GNBT

= Rotational Swing Trading Template Trial Update =

I changed the "long-term" HOLD/SELL criterias for GNBT (see HOLD/SELL boxes).

As of yesterday, HEB hit SELL indicators.  I will continue to monitor HEB and BUY back if most/all of BUY indicators are present for second rotation.

I am lining up the next stock to swing trade while holding GNBT long.

Good morning,

GNBTalready at $3.62 and traded 677,000 shares already!  Very promising today.

Would like to know what your take is on the Smartmoney article?  Seems every suspicious to come out so late.  What an AH frenzy...

What do you see for Monday?