3SOF

Another pick from the elite one!
Don't be disappointed eliteg.I also like the analysis of Melf Elf.
I'm not in this stock.I tend to believe it still has the chance of making the RUN.
The bullish looking doji star that Melf Elf pointed out just may be the sign of things to come.
I just may jump into this come tomorrow myself.Rock and roll day may be here

Quote from: eliteG on June 25, 2005, 02:25:26 PM

I think we dont want to forget that time is money, though, too.  There are better patterns out there...

Good point, eliteG.  I just was looking at the NASDAQ Composite chart.  After that beautiful gap up breakout out of the January 3, 2005 down channel on May 18, we rallied about 100 points.  The entire month of June, however, is looking like an "M"-top.  On Thursday and Friday, we printed a new high for the move at 2106, then we gave back ALL of the June gains.  That's sure looking like at least a short-term reversal.

If we break below this 2050-2053 area (the close was 2053), that would measure back to roughly 2000.  The May 17-18 gap is 2004-2007, so that gap would get filled. 

If we do that, the good news could be that we'd be putting in the right shoulder of an Inverse H&S.  Neckline: February15...June 22 highs in the 2100 area.  Left shoulder: January 24 low.

If we take out 2050 here, I'm in "go slow" mode, as far as taking any long positions.  The chart would have to look really, really good.    

If the market goes lower and it looks that way ,this will sink also...use tight stops,....just my opinion,,

I sold .....cut the loss....
Make it up on another................

The Thursday and Friday reversal in the NASDAQ kept me from playing anything today, Setravis, but what a dirty deal in TZOO today!  They took it up above Friday's doji star hammer high of 34.60 to kick in the buy pivot at 34.61 (high was 34.80), then just dropped it like a brick ten minutes ago (down $1.00 in minutes) to knock out the 32.60 stop!   

Good effort, and good use of stops (applause).  You'll get 'em next time 

Melf Elf.....You said a mouth full there.
If that's the way they want to be ...I didn't want to hold their stock no way.
It's just a thing!!!!
It can be made up.....get out while the gettin is good....

Quote from: setravis on June 27, 2005, 02:28:54 PM
It can be made up.....get out while the gettin is good....

Yep, especially since the break of Friday's 32.60 low looks like TZOO just fell to the downside out of the bear flag that we discussed over the weekend.

There's a possiblity that we're going to tag the big down trendline from December, 2004 (and the 50DMA at about 31.50), then rally, but I really don't like this break of the bear flag, which got resolved in the direction of the trend.  Bearish.

Bought today at $32 and $32.20.  Been waiting a while for this expected retrace.  Nasdaq is oversold and should get some value buyers and pull TZOO back up with it, particularly if the 50 day holds.  TZOO is still in an uptrend, just a correction in the uptrend. 

The time to buy is now.
Bula

Quote from: bula on June 27, 2005, 03:08:05 PM
TZOO is still in an uptrend, just a correction in the uptrend. 

Good luck with your trade, Bula. 

I have to disagree with you about the trend being bullish.  The dominant trend is bearish.  TZOO completed a Head and Shoulders top o March 14 (bearish), rallied to the December, 2004 down trendline on April 1, 2005 and failed right there (bearish), then sank to the May, 2005 low.

The short-term trend (six weeks) has been bullish (higher highs and higher lows), but the rally had the shape of a bear flag.  When the dominant trend is bearish, expect patterns to have a bearish resolution.

Over the weekend, we discussed the possibility of a rally to the top of the bear flag ($40.00-ish) since the up trendline off the May low held on Friday.  The up trendline was broken today on the takeout of Friday's low of 32.60, so the bear flag has resolved to the downside.  Bearish.

If we close back inside the flag (today, it would be a close of about 32.85), I'd be short-term neutral, at best.  Boy, I don''t like to see validated trendlines and patterns get broken by as much as TZOO broke this one today. 

TZOO currently is 32.65 BID...32.75 ASK, so it's got a chance to get back inside the flag at the close, but personally, I wouldn't buy it.  As eliteG said, there are too many better charts.   

Hope that you don't mind a differing opinion. 

Not at all.  I love differing opinions. 

2 things: the 50 day is still intact, and the MACD is still positive thus TZOO is in an uptrend.  To me, the MACD staying positive is more important than your long term trend line.  Still it is a not a perfect chart, that is true. But $32 is a good entry price relative to the 50 day.  If the 50 day is violated on heavy volume, then i'm with you.   So my stop will be set near there.

It's worth the risk here.

Bula   

Quote from: bula on June 27, 2005, 03:57:38 PM
It's worth the risk here.

Bula   

Good for you, Bula.  You've analyzed it.  You have a plan.  You know what your risk is, and you have a stop to protect yourself.   I give you applause.

That's all any of us can do.  Some you win.  Some you lose.  I hope that this is a big winner for you.

Is today's candle for TZOO a reversal?  Is this a bullish inverted hammer?  Thx

Quote from: AustinPowers on June 28, 2005, 04:27:17 PM
Is today's candle for TZOO a reversal?  Is this a bullish inverted hammer?  Thx

If the hammer were below the prior day's long black candle, then you'd have inverted hammer/reversal possibilities like we did last Friday, when TZOO put in a doji star hammer (open and close are nearly identical), on the bottom of the bear flag.

Yesterday's candle is an inside day.  All of the trading was within the prior day's black candle.  TZOO regained the broken bear flag intraday, but the close was below it for the second day.

Beginning with the bearish inverted hangman on June 21 (the three day pattern there looks like a Bearish Evening Star pattern), TZOO has put in its high of the day early each session, then sold off.  Friday's bullish-looking doji star hammer appeared to be a change in that behavior when TZOO rallied back to close near unchanged.

The print of 34.61 early Monday morning, a tick above Friday's doji star candle, turned out to be a "bull trap."  It was follow-thru to the upside, so a "buy pivot" for the bulls, but the day ended with Friday's entire bullish-looking doji-star candle getting reversed to the downside.   Bulls who bought the print of 34.61 are "trapped" up there, so to speak, if they're still long.  Ugly day.

1. Friday's doji star candle wasn't bullish
2. The bear flag was broken to the downside, and the close was below it
3. MACD gave a bearish cross of its signal line

Yesterday, like Monday, was a continuation of the recent behavior in TZOO: the high for the day was made in the first fifteen minutes of the session, and it got sold into.  If TZOO can close back inside the flag, I'd rate it neutral.  Until then, its acting bearish and looking like it's headed down to one or more of these:

1. Its 50DMA at 31.55
2. The June low at 30.80
3. A tag of the December, 2004 down trendline at about 30.70 for today     

http://ts-lc.sc8.finance.lycos.com/1120021277500?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=NASDAQ:TZOO&Interval=D&Permission=1000&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=2&Study=MACD&Param1=12&Param2=26&Param3=9&FontSize=10&LocaleID=0x0409

Had to see the chart.
see what you guys are talking about.

Thx for the analysis guys.  I suppose there are better opps. out there right now.