3SOF

I've traded TFSM several times but now I will hold my position a little longer. 
Nice price action yesterday. Earnings call is scheduled for March 2 and there was news about Presentions at Upcoming Investor Conferences.

This popped up on my filter over the weekend. Startin to look nice again forming an ascending triangle poised for a breakout. Nice pick saff!

Price action is in a long term uptrend wich recently consolidated near a downsloping resistence line and formed what appears to be an ascending triangle with a neckline at 9.80. We had a false breakout to new highs but fridays bull rally put us back up above the long term downsloping resistence line. A breakout of the 9.80 neckline looks like a good entry point to me

-fous

Awsome breakout today on heavy volume. Lovin this chart.

-fous

Quote from: fous on March 28, 2006, 04:28:16 AM
Awsome breakout today on heavy volume. Lovin this chart.

-fous

Looks good, fous.  Applause to you and to Wrangler for his post on TFSM on The Technical Analysis Board: The Ascending Triangle folder.

TFSM has had two re-tests of the Symmetrical Triangle breakout.  Both were successful, within one penny on each occasion.

Quote from: Melf Elf on March 28, 2006, 06:43:10 AM



Looks good, fous.  Applause to you and to Wrangler for his post on TFSM on The Technical Analysis Board: The Ascending Triangle folder.

TFSM has had two re-tests of the Symmetrical Triangle breakout.  Both were successful, within one penny on each occasion.

Thanks Melf, Great to see you back

I bought 480 shares this morning at 10.39

-fous

Hello Fous:

Any comments on AMRN???      Did you buy this one???

Thx

jorgegr

Also bought some TFSM at 9.99 and 10.00... see how this one shakes out

I'm with ya, bought @10.12!

We probably bought in a little high but I see strong support from 9.75 -9.90 - some buyers in there....


Entry - 9.99 and 10.00 fills at each
Stop Limit - 9.50

GL all!
cal 

Bought TFSM at 9.755, at the gap fill.

Whats your target???

Thanks,
cal

Quote from: Melf Elf on March 29, 2006, 10:58:38 AM
Bought TFSM at 9.755, at the gap fill.

Great entry today MElf(applauds)

Quote from: calven on March 29, 2006, 07:43:08 PM
Whats your target???

Thanks,
cal

Measuring a target from the ascending triangle that i see formed here with a neckline of 9.80, i see a technical target of 12.64.

Im generally happy with todays price action. PPS reteced down just between the neckline at 9.80 and the ascending trendline. Then the bulls took control again and formed a Doji candle which is a sign that the bears have lost control to continue a retracement from here. A white candle tomorrow will confirm this and be a bullish sign of higher prices to come.

My current stop is at 9.65 which is the cross of the long term downsloping trendline and the short term ascending trendline.

-fous

Quote from: calven on March 29, 2006, 10:24:18 AM
I see strong support from 9.75 -9.90 - some buyers in there....

Nice job on that support, Calven.  The low was your 9.75 exactly.  Applause.

Quote from: calven on March 29, 2006, 07:43:08 PM
Whats your target???
Thanks,
cal

I've got 11.12-11.40  IN PLAY off the Symmetrical Triangle breakout.

fous,

Thanks, and thanks for analysis last night.  Applause.

TFSM doing fine today!

Fous see's a technical target of 12.64 based on the ascending triangle, Melf_Elf has 11.12 and 11.40 in play based on the symmetrical triangle!
Breakout of which triangle is the most 'reliable' to follow or ...?

Quote from: Se7en on March 30, 2006, 03:45:38 PM
TFSM doing fine today!

Se7en,

Yeah, nice day yesterday.  I liked the fact that TFSM scored a new high for the day in the late afternoon, and that it closed near its high.

Quote
Fous see's a technical target of 12.64 based on the ascending triangle, Melf_Elf has 11.12 and 11.40 in play based on the symmetrical triangle!
Breakout of which triangle is the most 'reliable' to follow or ...?

Unfortunately, we aren't going to know which (if either, at all) was the most "reliable" until after the fact.  Keep in mind that targets are "what we're aiming for," based on how we view the chart, and technicians differ on that, which is fine.

Technical analysis isn't an exact science, so we're trying to "take our best shot" at estimating targets, based on patterns, trendlines, volume, etc., while considering any indicators that we find helpful, like MACD, relative strength, etc.

Sometimes the target doesn't make.  Sometimes it makes almost exactly.  Sometimes the target is exceeded.  As we know, there simply aren't any guarantees.

That's why it's very important to plan the trade, and manage it as best we can, once we've derived our targets.   Try to set up a good risk: reward ratio, and use a stop in case, "What if my target doesn't make at all?"

On this trade, for example, I entered at the 9.75 gap fill, and my initial stop was a print below 9.19 (see chart), which was the low after the two successful re-tests of the Symmetrical Triangle breakout, prior to the rally to the high of 10.614.

If I got stopped out on a print of 9.18, I would have lost 5.9% from my 9.755 entry.

If the low end of my 11.12 and 11.40 targets gets MADE (11.12), the gain is 14%, so the risk:reward is better than 1:2, which is fine.  And, as trade progresses, the risk: reward can improve as we raise the stop.

Now that TFSM has rallied, and I can see that the gap fill at 9.75 was the low on Wednesday, I now can raise my stop to break even, barring a gap down below 9.75, in which case I'd lose some.

Technically, as far as I'm concerned, there isn't any reason that is valid for me to continue to hold the stock if it goes back down there (9.75).  The gap is filled.  That work is done.

Additionally, the uptrend line (dotted red line) off the bottom of the Symmetrical Triangle comes in today, March 31, at 9.817.  So, if we should go back down and break 9.817, and also break Wednesday's low of 9.75, I'm not interested in being long this stock because I don't know how far down it wants to go. 

As the chart stands, it's telling me that 9.75-9.817 "should be" support, and if that isn't support, I want out, and I'll be out a break even, or near break even.  So, my risk:reward has improved greatly.  I stand to gain much more on the upside than I am now willing to risk on the downside, now that the stock has rallied.

I don't want to turn a winner into a loser.  I'm raising my stop to a tick below 9.75, but I'll probably sell a little before that if I see the up trendline (dotted red line) get broken.

On the upside, we want to watch the rising trendline connecting the highs (solid red).  That comes in today, March 31, at 10.692.  If TFSM rallies to, or near there, then sells off, it would suggest that we need to be very watchful, to see if the Symmetrical Triangle pattern is "morphing" (changing) into a Bearish Risiing Wedge.

A Bearish Rising Wedge has converging rising trendlines.  In other words, the trendlines eventually will meet, or "converge."  That pattern often is a terminal pattern (end of the rally), and the bearishness is confirmed when the lower up trendline (solid blue line)  is broken to the downside.

So, we especially don't want to see TFSM get stopped at that upper (red) trendline, and then see what "should be" support at 9.75 - 9.817 get taken out to the downside.  It would suggest that we might be going back down to re-visit the Symmetrical Triangle breakout area.

Sorry for the long explanation, but now that we know what my targets are and what fous' target is, we want to manage the trade and be vigilant for anything that suggests to us that "what we're aiming for" (targets)  might not be what the stock has in mind.

Good luck, Se7en!  Hopefully, we'll all make some $$$.  So far, so good