3SOF

1.21 support held during the March selloff. 

DROOY put in a Bullish Morning Star near there, rallied back to 1.63-1.64 resistance, filled the gap at 1.43-1.44, and now needs to complete the Right Shoulder of an Inverse H&S, then take out the 1.64...1.63...1.62 neckline.

(See March 2 post above for the larger Inverse H&S pattern).

Quote from: Melf Elf on April 06, 2006, 08:50:41 AM
now needs to complete the Right Shoulder of an Inverse H&S, then take out the 1.64...1.63...1.62 neckline.

Just to be obstinate, DROOY has printed only 1.61 so far today, right at the neckline.

 

Thiis Inverse H&S on the hourly chart also measures back to the neckline. 

Quote from: Melf Elf on April 06, 2006, 11:07:20 AM
This Inverse H&S on the hourly chart also measures back to the neckline. 

Here's a close-up of  the daily chart, that shows the Inverse H&S on the hourly chart (last post).

On the daily chart, the Head of the Inverse H&S pattern is a "self-contained"  Mini Inverse H&S pattern, if you will.

The neckline has identical data points, at 1.45.  The low was 1.24, so the breakout of that "Mini" H&S put a target of 1.66 IN PLAY.

Math:

1.45 - 1.24 = 0.21 points, added back to 1.45 = Target: 1.66 IN PLAY.

That target only gets us back to the neckline of the larger Inverse H&S pattern, which is where we are now.

I like the fact that after the breakout above 1.45, DROOY went up to the prior highs and formed another data point on the neckline.  It then came back and filled the 1.43-1.44 gap that it left at the breakout above the 1.45 neckline (the April 3 low was 1.43), and it now has come back to the neckline, champing at the bit for the larger Inverse H&S breakout.

EDIT: The current Right Shoulder would have a better look to it if we champ at the bit awhile longer, but I'll take a breakout, if we get it.

TA:
http://www.stockta.com/cgi-bin/analysis.pl?symb=DROOY&num1=3&cobrand=windchart&mode=stock

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Thanks for that information, Oliver.  Applause. 

DROOY has been the weak sister in this sector, and it needs all the help it can get.

   

The Bear Case here is that the January upside breakout above the downsloping neckline (solid green line) only served to form the Head (at 2.02) of a Bearish Inverse H&S (neckline: 1.21 and 1.24).  If that's the case, we're now in the Right Shoulder of a BEARISH H&S pattern.

The Left Shoulder is the high of 1.66, which is a BIG reason that we want to see that get taken out here, and see the stock rally back toward 2.00.

Quote from: Melf Elf on March 02, 2006, 02:01:51 PM
I bought it yesterday at 1.44.

I've been patiently long DROOY for over a month.   

We just filled a gap on April 3 at 1.43, near my entry, and successfully re-tested the breakout above the neckline at 1.45 (see last post). 

I don't see any technical reason to have to go back down there.  The gap-filling, breakout re-testing work is done.   So, if we do go back into the mid-1.40s, I'm not going to like it.



My stop now is below the low of the Right Shoulder of the Mini Inverse H&S, which was the 1.35 low, on March 29.

Investor Letter (April):
http://www.drdgold.com/Investor_Info/Investor_Briefs/apr06.pdf
March Newsupdate (27 slides):
http://www.drdgold.com/Investor_Info/Presentations/2006/emp_asiaminingcngress_mar06.pdf

Looks like a breakout coming....

Quote from: calven on April 18, 2006, 11:42:58 PM
Looks like a breakout coming....

Calven,

I sure hope so...I'm getting tired, waiting for this dog to break out (we need a face on the toolbar that barks).

Quote from: Melf Elf on March 02, 2006, 02:01:51 PM
I bought it yesterday at 1.44.

I've been patiently long DROOY for over a month.

It's now been seven weeks, and with the POG going gangbusters, still no breakout. 

Quote from: Melf Elf on April 07, 2006, 04:45:26 AM
EDIT: The current Right Shoulder would have a better look to it if we champ at the bit awhile longer, but I'll take a breakout, if we get it.

Two weeks later, the Right Shoulder does have a better look to it, but enough with the champing at the bit, already...it's time to breakout!

 

I don't want to see the 1.40s again, but if the POG sells off, that doesn't leave DROOY much room, since it hasn't broken out yet.  I'm raising my stop to 1.49, below Monday's low, just in case this is a Bearish H&S Top, instead of a Bullish Inverse H&S bottom (see my April 7 "Bear Case" post for that scenario, if interested).

Thanks for the post and chart, Calven.  Applause.

Quote from: calven on April 18, 2006, 11:42:58 PM
Looks like a breakout coming....

Calven,

It's trying...just printed 1.65. 

    1.66...1.67...1.68...1.69...1.70     

Better than two times average 100 day volume, so far.  Looking good.

  1.71...1.72...1.73...  

Yesterday's Inverse H&S breakout puts Target: 1.96 - 2.00 IN PLAY.

The black down trendline comes in today at about 1.975.  The slope is -0.00068, so it comes down slightly each day.  DROOY could run into resistance at that trendline, just shy of 2.00, and back off some.

On the downside, we could get a neckline re-test in the low 1.60s on profit-taking from yesterday's momo players, but after a breakout of a two-month Inverse H&S pattern, buyers "should" step up on any breakout re-test.  I wouldn't want to see a close back below the breakout, though. 

I'm raising my stop to a close below 1.58, yesterday's low.

As a result of yesterday's breakout, the longer-term picture also has improved.  See next post.

On this weekly Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart, we can see "at a glance" that everything to the left of the thick vertical black line is resistance from the 1½ year Symmetrical Triangle breakdown.

After that kind of breakdown, a stock needs to "regroup," and build a nice base from which to attack all of that overhead resistance from roughly 2.00 - 4.50.

To the right of the vertical black line, we can "see at a glance" that DROOY has:

1. Built a nice 1½ year base, roughly equal to the width of resistance
2. Broke out in January, 2006
3. Successfully re-tested the breakout, in late March, 2006
4. Bounced off the top of the Kumo (Cloud) on that re-test, on a Bullish Dragonfly Doji
5. Broke out of another Inverse H&S pattern yesterday, basis the daily chart

Quote from: Melf Elf on April 20, 2006, 07:16:19 AM
I'm raising my stop to a close below 1.58, yesterday's low.

DROOY currently is BID 1.57...ASK 1.58.  Bummer. 

As much as I liked yesterday's breakout, and as much as I like the chart overall, DROOY has been the weak sister in this sector, so if it closes back below yesterday's neckline breakout, and below yesterday's low of 1.58,  I'm going to take the money, per plan.

Quote from: Melf Elf on March 02, 2006, 02:01:51 PM
I bought it yesterday at 1.44.

Sold DROOY at 1.56.  Gain: 8.3%.

As good as yesterday's breakout looked, that's very disappointing.  It still could rally, but I don't like the fact that buyers didn't step up in the low 1.60s, and that DROOY was set to close (so easily), back below the breakout.