3SOF

So this is what our pain looks like in a chart 

EliteG,

Very telling charts, thanks for posting that, its good perspective. 

I have only been trading for about half a year now, but what I have yet to understand is how almost no matter what kind of portfolio I have, how balanced it is, etc., its almost always the case that when the market crashes by 1%, I lose like 4%.  Same thing happened today with the entire 3SOF portfolio!  I guess on the flip side I havent had a portfolio yet with Coca Cola, Microsoft, etc. but it still seems odd to me (in a clearly bad way)    I am not one for conspiracty theories, but it does make me wonder sometimes... Anyone else have the same experiences?  Or any explanation for that phenomenon?

Hi G,

Thank you G for the chart.

I have a question which comes out from the same position as tokyopua.

After we attain some gains (such last week) and then experience the signs of a retracement or breakdown (yesterday after the close), we see it on the nasdaq chart or on some individual charts with a strong red candle.

Should we tight stops or exit the positions to protect capital?
I know we should "plan the trade and trade the plan"  at all times but in these cases, wouldn't be smarter to get out of the way and let the train pass by? Maybe this is not a very disciplined approach. it is just a little frustrating seeing the gains being swept away very fast.

Thank you G in advance for any input.
rafael.

Hi !

I will post a small overview of how I'm seeing the market right now.

Usually I use the NDX (Nasdaq-100) to track the overall trend of the market. It's not a specific rule, but it's the way I've been doing for the last few years with good results.

Short Term:
NDX is still trading inside an ascending short term channel, today the low of the day was a small test to the base of this channel, also the last short term resistance level (around 1700).
A close below 1700 would not be good for the short term, since the next support zone is 40 points below that level.
Even with this big sell off, the NDX is still trading a bullish pattern on this time frame, although the bias must be HIGH ALERT for now.



Mid-Long Term:
I see the main trend, also inside a large ascending channel on this time frame. My personal sentiment will remain Bullish on the market, until the NDX is inside this pattern.
The main k-support is 1660 right now, and a confirmation of reversion would be a trade below 1648.
The overview is still bullish, but the bias must be set to ALERT because of the short term danger situation.



During the last year, the few times I decided to go cash, I had to buy back my positions slightly higher a few time later. I'm not sure what the market is willing to do on the next sessions, but I'm sure a few questions will be answered soon

Best regards !


.

I just spent 20 minutes writing a piece about the market and then include much about gold Palladium ans so for that seems most have been missing. The commodities markets are in a multi-year bull market and they should be a part of everyones portfolio in my opinion. I have posted numerous times about them. IN the last 10 days as an example ones like VGZ   GBN AUY CBJ CBF DEZ GRZ GOLD all broke out. Ones like BAA have pulled back and may test the 50-day EMA again or PAL that is about ready to move back up.

Anyway after writing the whole piece and only seconds away from posting the darn auto refresh script kicked in and sent me back to the index. There was no back button so I could not retrieve what I had written. This has happened to so many people and we have asked that this refresh script be removed since the site opened. It is of no real use. The purpose seems to be to get a higher count on ad displays called "page views" but most ads only pay on click not on views so mostly this refresh script just hurts the members. I know It rather upsets me that I took 20 minutes of my time to share and it was all lost due to something that should have been removed last year when this became a pay site.

Please remove that script it is an irritation. You go to a thread and leave the page for 15 minute and return to that tab and it is back on the index - bad idea. I have no time to re post all I had about the markets.

Hey Metro, I am sorry and disappointed you lost that post. I have always appreciated your take on the market. Hopefully Rasmsberg will get ride of that feature, I agree, it is not necessary. Please if you get any time, could you give your outlook maybe in small doses.

Cheers

uc.

I am watching for confirmation of a breakdown in the S&P500 to start a shorting strategy.  It looks like the 1270 level is key, but a breakdown of the upward channel line on G's chart may be a good early signal.
I don't want to step in to a bounce with a bunch of shorts   

SmartWrasse - yes good to wait as the last 3 times the S&P bounced at the 50-day EMA and may do so again and make a new high.

This S&P that I use is the non weighted one - the real one as I call it..

http://tinyurl.com/cleln

Hey thanks for your input Metro!  I always value your opinion