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The Week Ahead Outlook: 4/17/2006 - 4/21/2006

Started by eliteG, April 16, 2006, 11:41:34 AM

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eliteG

Links:

It is important to at least have a brief look at the economic and earnings calendars for the week... they may give trading ideas, explain certain market movements.. and keep you out of trouble.  ;)

link to Economic Calendar for the week.[/url]

link to Earnings Calendar for the week.[/url]

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Charts:

The charts section gives a brief look at the markets and key sectors with technical analysis.  It helps to know the health of the market.  This is followed by a summary.

So always first.. NASDAQ:

eliteG


The Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Russel


eliteG


Oil, Gold, USD


eliteG


Banks, Brokers, Semis, Internets

eliteG


Drugs, Biotech, Airlines, Retail

eliteG

To sum it up:
04/17/2006 - 04/21/2006

Since last week was a short week with low volume it is difficult to judge the validity of some of these volatile moves.  Overall everything headed down except gold and oil.  Will this trend continue or does the new volume this week create a bounce?  Earnings reports could be key in the next few weeks.

Nasdaq - neutral.. broke through support and rose on light volume..was it just a holiday week move?
DJIA - neutral/bearish.. possible wedge breakdown but 50ma supports meanwhile.
S&P - neutral/bearish.. broke down out of tight range, now @ bottom of channel.
NDX -  neutral.. moved lower to inverse H&S neck line @ 1700.. also 20 ema.. below the channel and 50sma provide support.
Russel - neutral/bearish.. broke down out of wedge and managed slight bounce above 50ma.. now @ 20ema.

Oil - bullish.. near breakout, sharp upward trend
Gold - bullish.. continues to trend upwards
USD - neutral.. consolidating tighly just under 200ma

Banks - neutral/bearish.. just above a breakdown from H&S top and symmetrical triangle.. support from 50ma.
Brokers - neutral.. 20ema provides support but a channel breakdown is possible
Semis - neutral.. back under round bottom breakout
Internets - neutral.. support found @ 187?
Drugs - neutral/bearish..  will strong support @ 320 hold?.. heavy downward trend
Biotechs - neutral/bearish.. bounced just above 200 @ 670.. but can it handle 690,700 resistance?
Airlines - neutral/bearish.. broke support @ 54 and now resisted by 50ma
Retail - neutral.. broke downward to support @ 50ma.. next support 200ma ~ 461

SmartWrasse

Thanks G!  I'll be closely watching the S&P, NDX and SOX.  Really appreciate your updating us on these important technicals.

SmartWrasse

Do you see short term (few week), new H&S formations in the NDX and Russel?

eliteG


Hey SmartWrasse   :)  On the NDX and Russel I think the key thing is that they look negative.. I dont see an H&S on the NDX.. the Russel might have one.  Volume has not come back yet on the Nasdaq so although the markets looked quite red today it was not a clear distribution sign.