3SOF

Quote from: setravis on March 29, 2006, 05:50:00 PM

Value...
This one is way undervalued. I think the shorts knocked the price down, but the squeeze is on.......

FORD chart 3:

I thought that Ford reported on the Friday the 21st,
With the jump in the price I assume it was a favorable report.
I see no news on the web site.
If it clears the pivot point at 11.75, the next significant resistance is in the $17.00/$19 region.
Agree with you Terlisa, FORD is fundamentally undervalued and technically about to POP! JMHO, of course

Volume: 1,455,734
Avg Vol (3m): 357,995

Technicals
Close Above the 50-day EMA
Close Above the 13-day EMA
Percentage Gainer

Last Price Quote is:
9.63%above 13-day EMA
9.15%above 50-day EMA
RS Rating: 21 

Fundamentals
Earnings Expected on Apr 21

Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $86.48 
P/E Ratio: 9.72 
PEG Ratio: N/A 
Next Earnings: N/A
Last Analyst Rating: N/A

Can't find a date for earnings. They did post on the 21st last year. Last quarter was reported on feb 02, so maybe early may. Up a little this morning, come on $11.84 and beyond.

uc.

Earnings report out tomorrow (April 26th). To hold or not to hold, that is the dilemma. Any opinions would be welcome.

uc.

Quote from: usedcasting on April 25, 2006, 11:31:59 AM
Earnings report out tomorrow (April 26th). To hold or not to hold, that is the dilemma. Any opinions would be welcome.

uc.

uc,

FORD looks to be forming a 4-month Inverse H&S pattern.  The width of the pattern doesn't look good enough to go up against that big top from late 2005, but if it breaks out to the upside, it would put Target: 15.50 IN PLAY, which is below the low the big top.  So, it's got "room" to make the target.

If I held FORD through earnings, I would sell any indicated opening below 9.30, right or wrong.  That's the low of the Right Shoulder on April 5, and if it gets violated, it would suggest more downside, possibly below the recent lows of 8.05, if it gets ugly on heavy volume.

That doesn't seem likely, since others in this folder feel that it's undervalued, fundamentally, but that's how I'd play it, technically, on a break of 9.30. 

If the report is good, and if FORD really is undervalued, it would seem much more likely that it would gap higher in response to earnings, above the neckline of the Inverse H&S bottom, which would be a technical confirmation of the fundamental undervaluation.  Especially a "Gap And Go" on volume.

"Oops! We had this wrong.  FORD is worth a lot more than this!"

Good luck with your decision, uc!

Cheers Melf, thanks for your review.(Appl). They are reporting after 6:30 tomorrow night. Weird, don't like that.

Thanks again

uc.

Any thoughts on the sell-off? 
Anybody want to buy a bag or two, I am holding a few.

Quote from: bmarc4211 on April 25, 2006, 01:52:09 PM
Any thoughts on the sell-off? 

bmarc,

Absent news, I'd say it's pre-earnings jitters.  A lot of players don't like to hold through earnings, and understandably so, given how stocks can get whacked when they disappoint. 

Volume on Friday's big white candle was over one million shares; it's only 540,000 going into the close, so technically, this selloff is alright so far.  It isn't any large-scale dumping.

Quote
Anybody want to buy a bag or two, I am holding a few.

We've all had a few armfuls of those and can sympathize. 

Good luck!

FORD LAST PRICE WAS 6.00 AFTER HOURS REPORTED .01 OUCH ANYWAY TO TRADE IT BACK UPWARDS HERE?

Quote from: bmarc4211 on April 25, 2006, 01:52:09 PM
Any thoughts on the sell-off? 
Anybody want to buy a bag or two, I am holding a few.

Very Famous Words...
"Never hold a stock through earnings"... I've been here before & don't want to get burn again

I see this stock is tanking again tonight.   

This is the one that I lost 35% on over Christmas, and was my biggest loss.  It's down 40% this time.

Quote from: hehe3 on April 26, 2006, 08:40:14 PM
FORD LAST PRICE WAS 6.00 AFTER HOURS REPORTED .01 OUCH ANYWAY TO TRADE IT BACK UPWARDS HERE?

hehe3,

Unless you're going to play it off the intraday chart and have some experience with that, I'd suggest staying out of there in these situations, in general.

The $6.00 in after hours could be an overreaction since it only was on about 137,000, but any open below The Right Shoulder of the Inverse H&S pattern, at 9.30, and particularly any open below the Head of the pattern, at 8.05, could get ugly.

A break below 8.05 indicates that:

1. Fundamentally, the market certainly doesn't think that FORD was undervalued at yesterday's 10.25 close, or the stock wouldn't be taking that kind of hit.

2. Technically, the Inverse H&S will have resolved to the downside, so it isn't bullish, and it would put Target: 4.32 IN PLAY, reinforcing the Target: 3.90 already IN PLAY from the December, 2005 breakdown of the Double H&S Top.

3. Everyone who bought FORD after mid-March and is still long will be holding a loser, and many of them will be panicked to sell today, particularly those still holding from prices above the big H&S Top.  An 8.05 or lower open today will be their second or third crash experience in this stock (depending upon when they bought it).

As most of you know by now, my own response in these situations is to sell at the market, no questions asked.  I definitely won't "double down" on a loser.  I take the hit, and move on to something more productive.  Each of you who is long will have to decide for yourselves how to handle FORD today, and I wish you good luck.  You know that I sympathize with your situation.  I've been there before.  We probably all have been there.

Finally, I want to applaud Leaira for her honesty in sharing her story about taking the 35% hit in FORD in December, and for taking that hit, "right or wrong."  That's never easy for us, but Leaira moved on to more productive plays, and I congratulate her and applaud her for it. 




 

Unfortunately, I'm in this sinking boat with you'all.  Sell at the market when?  First thing at 9:30AM or around 10:00AM when it can be better or worse, depending on your 9:30 AM decision.

Quote from: wisebuys on April 27, 2006, 06:22:18 AM
Sell at the market when?  First thing at 9:30AM or around 10:00AM when it can be better or worse, depending on your 9:30 AM decision.

wisebuys,

That's a tough, tough, decision, and frankly, I think it's a guess. 

If it opens at 7.00 at 9:30 and you sell, then it rallies to 8.00 at 10:00, you feel like kicking yourself for not waiting a little.  If it opens at 7.00, and you sell, and it drops to 6.00 by 10:00AM, you're very happy that you sold at the open.

Coulda...shoulda...woulda...and, it's very frustrating, trying to guess. 

I hate even to suggest anything, for fear of making your situation worse, but if you're deciding between the open and 10:00AM, you could "average out" by selling half at the open, then sell the other half at 10:00.

The risk with that strategy, of course, is if FORD opens at/near its high of the day, then tanks into 10:00. 

Whatever you decide, don't be hard on yourself about it.  Try to put it behind you, and move on.   It's plain difficult to come up with a "good" decision in a situation like this.