3SOF

Quote from: la-onda on April 24, 2006, 11:44:56 AM
disapointed chart, shorts interest down..... 

BNT: Short Interest DN 25.3% to 2.6M in Apr 2006
Thursday , April 20, 2006 16:46 ET

According to new short interest data from NYSE, short interest for Bentley Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NYSE: BNT) DECREASED 25.3% to 2,593,388 shares for the month ended mid-April, 2006.

Oliver,

Thanks for that information.  Applause.

That indicates intelligent play on the part of some of the shorts.  Anyone who shorted near the high of 22.90, or the Right Shoulder failure near 18.66, or the break of the H&S Top at 16.75, then  covered in mid-April at the test of Inverse H&S neckline (green line) made a very nice profit.

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Based on BNT's 20-day average daily share volume of 212,130, it would require approximately 13 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.

That group of shorts could become victims of greed.    

13 days of buying to cover would be quite a bit of fuel for a rally when one materializes, and there's certainly a chance of one at any time here.  BNT has really gotten clocked.

The H&S target: 10.33 still is IN PLAY since BNT only has gotten to 11.85, but targets only are what the pattern measurement suggests that we're "aiming for."  BNT has fallen 48% from its January high, so the low "could be" in.

The fact that on April 18, BNT put in a Bullish Doji Star hammer smack on the neckline of the 2004-2005 Inverse H&S Bottom (green line) is a positive, and the fact that BNT also put in a bullish hammer at the bottom of the Kumo (Cloud) basis the weekly chart also is a positive. 

I'll show you that chart next.

The 48% decline in BNT has been wicked, but if we look at the longer-term picture on this weekly chart, we can see that:

1. BNT, so far, has found support at the neckline of the 2004-2005 Inverse H&S pattern.

"Former resistance 'should be' support."  So far, it is.

2. BNT also put in a Bullish Hammer at the bottom of the Kumo (Cloud), which is the vertical green lines.  When a stock is in a bullish trend, the Kumo (Cloud) "should" act as support on selloffs.  So far, it has.

so you will invest based on your analysis?
cheers
O.

BNT Summarization from Conference beginning of April:

time for reentering  ?

Quote from: la-onda on April 25, 2006, 07:49:20 AM
so you will invest based on your analysis?
cheers
O.

Oliver,

I'm tempted, after reading your post and after taking a look at the chart.  

The problem that I have with a stock like this is that it's so illiquid.  It's been trading only 100,000-200,000  shares, so it's difficult to get a decent order fill on both the buy and sell.

In addition to my other comments, the 13-21RSI chart looks good, too.  13 RSI got oversold below 25, broke out above a "W"-bottom pattern (solid blue line), then yesterday, came back into bullish synchroncity with the 21 RSI .

This RSI signal can be a nice one.  You can see on this chart the Bear Flag failure signal on February 27.  That was at the 18.66 high of the Right Shoulder of the H&S Top.

Technically with this signal, a print above yesterday's high of 12.90 is a "buy pivot," so a print today of 12.91.  The stop would be below the 11.85 low, so the risk would be a loss of 8.2%.

An alternative would be to "frontrun the trade" (not wait for the print of 12.91) and pay yesterday's 12.59 closing price, or something near there, depending on how it opens.  Risk would be a loss of about 6%.

On the upside, short-term, I would be looking for a rally to the 50/200DMAs, at roughly 14.54-14.72, for a gain of at least 12.6% from a 12.91 entry.  The bottom of the Kumo (Cloud) basis the daily chart is at 14.60, so that ties in nicely.

Bottom line: the illiquidity bothers me, but I might go ahead and play it.  I'll post if I do.

Quote from: la-onda on April 25, 2006, 08:23:20 AM
BNT Summarization from Conference beginning of April:

Oliver,

Oooo-oo...you're really trying to tempt me, aren't you?   

Quote from: Melf Elf on April 25, 2006, 08:29:09 AM
The bottom of the Kumo (Cloud) basis the daily chart is at 14.60, so that ties in nicely.

Here's the daily Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart, showing the bottom of the Kumo (Cloud) at 14.60.  That Kumo (Cloud) when it's overhead like this tends to act as resistance, at least
short-term.

Oliver,

BNT opened down four cents, to 12.55, on 2,300 shares traded.

At BID 12.55...ASK 12.60, I placed my ALL OR NONE order at the ASK, 12.60.

They immediately moved the quote to BID 12.59...ASK 12.66.

That's why I don't like to play these illiquid stocks.  They like to yank you around, and make you chase it higher.

BNT currently is BID 12.64...ASK 12.70, last trade: 12.65.  I'm not going to play their silly games. and keep trying to chase the price, and I'm certainly not willing to place the order AT THE MARKET.  They'll probably fill me at 14.00.

   

The good news is that my order at 12.60 is creating a floor for the stock, for those of you who are long.

   

Basis the hourly chart, BNT broke out of a Bullish Inverse H&S pattern, putting Target: 13.63 IN PLAY.

Consistent with the weakness that we've witnessed in this stock, though, it has broken back below the 12.74 - 12.75 neckline, putting the target ON HOLD.

If BNT can get back above 12.75, the Target: 13.63 will be back IN PLAY.

Good luck if you have this one, Oliver!

in @ 12.66$ 
hope that your order will be filled

good luck

Quote from: la-onda on April 25, 2006, 10:03:39 AM
in @ 12.66$ 
hope that your order will be filled

good luck

Oliver,

They dropped it all the way to BID 12.45...ASK 12.46 and still didn't fill my 12.60 order.

   

At least they're consistent, the little devils.      

They finally filled me at 12.60, then immediately dropped it to BID 12.52...ASK 12.55.

Real jokesters, aren't they?     

Well, we're both long, so good luck to us, huh?! 

We want to see it get back above the neckline on the hourly chart, at 12.75.  If we break below the Right Shoulder (see hourly chart in post above) at 12.42, we'll likely be in for a re-test of the 11.85 low.

   

The low so far is 12.45.

Quote from: Melf Elf on April 25, 2006, 10:23:32 AM
If we break below the Right Shoulder (see hourly chart in post above) at 12.42, we'll likely be in for a re-test of the 11.85 low.


The low so far is 12.45.

Oliver,

We didn't make any money today, but at least that 12.45 low held up. 

It looked like BNT closed UNCH on the day, but then 1,300 shares went through at 4:02:22, at 12.60, up a penny on the day.  That always makes me suspicious when a trade gets printed late like that.

   

At any rate, it helps our cause to close higher. 

That means that the 13/21 RSIs also will tick higher, from bullish synchronicity, and that a tick above today's high of 12.69, so a print tomorrow of 12.70, becomes the technical "buy pivot."

Only problem with that is I wonder if anyone's watching.  Only 127,000 shares traded today. 

Here's yesterday's 13/21RSI chart again (Picture a little uptick in both for today).  This still "could be" a nice signal.

Quote from: Melf Elf on April 25, 2006, 04:46:13 PM
That means that the 13/21 RSIs also will tick higher, from bullish synchronicity, and that a tick above today's high of 12.69, so a print tomorrow of 12.70, becomes the technical "buy pivot."

Oliver,

We got the 12.70 buy pivot, off the bounce out of synchronicity in the 13/21 RSIs, and we're also back above the 12.74-12.75 neckline of the Bullish Inverse H&S Bottom, basis the hourly chart.  As long as we remain above there, Target: 13.63 is IN PLAY.

Math:

Neckline is 12-74-12.75 (use the more conservative 12.74)
Bottom of the Head is 11.85.

12.74 - 11.85 = 0.89 points, added back to the neckline breakout...

12.74 + 0.89 points = Target: 13.63 IN

Volume stinks, though.  Only 30,000 shares so far today. 

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Here's yesterday's 13/21RSI chart again (Picture a little uptick in both for today).  This still "could be" a nice signal.

So far, it is.  Nice little rally since I started typing.  BNT currently is BID 12.99...ASK 13.00

Quote from: Melf Elf on April 26, 2006, 10:11:20 AM

Here's yesterday's 13/21RSI chart again (Picture a little uptick in both for today).  This still "could be" a nice signal.


So far, it is.  Nice little rally since I started typing.  BNT currently is BID 12.99...ASK 13.00

Oliver,

Very-y nice little rally.  We got to 13.47!     

Our short-term target: 13.63 is IN PLAY and could be MADE today, but I'd prefer it if it wasn't.

The recent highs were 13.44 and 13.49, so this morning's 13.47 high "could" form the second data point of the neckline on the daily chart for a "possible" Inverse H&S "fractal" (repeating pattern) of the Inverse H&S pattern that we've got on the hourly chart.

If we back off here for a few days, then break out above the 13.49- 13.47, it would look much better, structurally, and it would reinforce getting us into the mid-to-high 14.00s.

It would look something like this:

   wow nice play today MelfElf.
I would appreciate the action mentioned in your last picture



happy trading
Oliver

Quote from: la-onda on April 26, 2006, 10:39:34 AM
  wow nice play today MelfElf.

Oliver,

Yeah, that was a nice rally this morning. 

I was tempted to sell it in the 13.40s at the "possible" second data point on the neckline (13.44-13.49), but decided to wait, and sell it if we got our 13.63 target IN PLAY, then buy it back lower.

BNT currently is BID 13.01...ASK 13.04, dang it.  The 13.40s look real gooood right now. 

That's fine.  Sometimes making a "quick grab" works out.  Sometimes it doesn't.

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I would appreciate the action mentioned in your last picture



happy trading
Oliver

That really would look better, wouldn't it?   

That was a ton of volume (for this stock) on the March 9 earnings smash up/break of the H&S Top.  One of those pianos, thrown off a building, depicted by this candlevolume chart (width shows volume).  Volume has been anemic since then.   It usually takes awhile for a stock to recover from something like that.

Quote from: Melf Elf on April 25, 2006, 10:23:32 AM
They finally filled me at 12.60

Sold BNTat 12.62.

Quote from: Melf Elf on April 26, 2006, 10:29:24 AM
Very-y nice little rally. We got to 13.47!

Our short-term target: 13.63 is IN PLAY and could be MADE today, but I'd prefer it if it wasn't.

I also would have preferred that we didn't go all the way back to 12.28 after that nice rally to 13.47, but we did!   

The volume is terrible.  Less than 100,000 shares the past couple of days.  These illiquid stocks are tough to get out of, so I took the opportunity today to sell.