3SOF

Lucky I got out from this crazy stock on april 24... the reason "EARNINGS" I don't like to ride a stock
through earnings, especially when the FLOAT is very low.
FORD Float is just 7.29M (Yahoo)...


Melf Elf, always excellent post (applaud)

Quote from: Melf Elf on April 27, 2006, 05:47:47 AM

Quote from: hehe3 on April 26, 2006, 08:40:14 PM
FORD LAST PRICE WAS 6.00 AFTER HOURS REPORTED .01 OUCH ANYWAY TO TRADE IT BACK UPWARDS HERE?

hehe3,

Unless you're going to play it off the intraday chart and have some experience with that, I'd suggest staying out of there in these situations, in general.

The $6.00 in after hours could be an overreaction since it only was on about 137,000, but any open below The Right Shoulder of the Inverse H&S pattern, at 9.30, and particularly any open below the Head of the pattern, at 8.05, could get ugly.

A break below 8.05 indicates that:

1. Fundamentally, the market certainly doesn't think that FORD was undervalued at yesterday's 10.25 close, or the stock wouldn't be taking that kind of hit.

2. Technically, the Inverse H&S will have resolved to the downside, so it isn't bullish, and it would put Target: 4.32 IN PLAY, reinforcing the Target: 3.90 already IN PLAY from the December, 2005 breakdown of the Double H&S Top.

3. Everyone who bought FORD after mid-March and is still long will be holding a loser, and many of them will be panicked to sell today, particularly those still holding from prices above the big H&S Top.  An 8.05 or lower open today will be their second or third crash experience in this stock (depending upon when they bought it).

As most of you know by now, my own response in these situations is to sell at the market, no questions asked.  I definitely won't "double down" on a loser.  I take the hit, and move on to something more productive.  Each of you who is long will have to decide for yourselves how to handle FORD today, and I wish you good luck.  You know that I sympathize with your situation.  I've been there before.  We probably all have been there.

Finally, I want to applaud Leaira for her honesty in sharing her story about taking the 35% hit in FORD in December, and for taking that hit, "right or wrong."  That's never easy for us, but Leaira moved on to more productive plays, and I congratulate her and applaud her for it. 

Quote from: Terlisa on April 27, 2006, 10:17:14 PM
Lucky I got out from this crazy stock on april 24... the reason "EARNINGS" I don't like to ride a stock
through earnings, especially when the FLOAT is very low.
FORD Float is just 7.29M (Yahoo)...

Alister,

Whew...I'm glad that you were out of there! 

Right before earnings came out, I began studying your MACD Histogram Weekly Uptick and Downtick Signal.  Yesterday didn't seem appropriate to present my results to you, but now that things have settled a little, you might find this interesting. 

Irononically, I began with the first "buy signal" (an uptick in the MACD Histogram) in 2005, which came on January 21, with the weekly close 6.38.  Ironic because I had finished the study after earnings came out, when FORD was at 10.25; it closed yesterday at 6.26, for just about a "dead even" since January 21, 2005.

As you can see from this MACD chart, there were a lot of upticks and downticks, or "buy and sell/change in trend" signals.  I only used the "buy" signals, and didn't factor for shorting the "sell" signals. 

There were 10 "buy/change in trend" signals since January, 2005.  Yesterday's close gave a "sell/change in trend" signal in the weekly histogram, to close out the weekly "buy/change in trend" at 10.38, on January 13, 2006.

Result From The 10 Signals:

FORD is down 1.9% from January 21, 2005.

Taking the 10 MACD Histogram Buy/CIT Signals for the same period results in a loss of 37.4%.

You see why I said that this signal might work well in a particular stock, but advised caution using it.

In the case of FORD, the weekly MACD Histogram gave 20 Upticks and Downticks "change in trend" signals for the period (January, 2005 to present).  That's far too many signals.  In the first half of 2005, FORD was in a strong uptrend.  All of those signals were "whipsaws," having us in and out and in and out, when we just should have been IN. 



What you want to do, Alister, is this:

1. Look at the MACD itself.  During the first half of 2005, its above zero, and its above its signal line.  There is no indication whatsoever of any problem. 

2. Look at all of the upticks and downticks in the histogram in the first half of 2005.  That's called "technical noise," and it should be ignored.

3. The first sign of possible trouble was in June, 2005, when MACD went below its signal line.  "MACD gave a SELL signal!!!" 

No, it didn't.

In a strong uptrend, that first signal "usually" is NOT a sell, and in this case, it wasn't. 

That signal signal came when FORD was at 19.47.  FORD already had put in a LOW the week before, at 15.90! 

4. Where the MACD  indicates "possible" technical trouble, is at those two negative divergences in August and September, 2005, and that's where your histogram downtick "sell signal/change in trend" can help you. 

The MACD itself, on two occasions, had negative divergences, then ticked below its signal line, and on both occasions, the histogram confirmed it, by also ticking down.

The first one was August 19, 2005: SELL at 24.75.

The second one was September 15, 2005: SELL at 25.05.

Either one of those would have been a good place to sell.  What confirms those signals, is when price breaks below the neckline of the first H&S Top, in late September, 2005.

In this case, the Weekly MACD and Histogram was a nice "lead indicator" of trouble ahead.

Good luck with the MACD histogram, Alister.  I appreciate your charts and the hard work that you put into them.  Applause.  We're all still learning, and I very much enjoy sharing our work, and helping each other out.  Thanks for all of your help.

FORD: Short Interest DN 14.2% to 1.8M in May 2006
Wednesday, May 24, 2006 16:18 ET

According to new short interest data from NASDAQ, short interest for Forward Industries, Inc. (NasdaqSC: FORD) DECREASED 14.2% to 1,822,724 shares for the month ended mid-May, 2006.

SYMBOL             APRIL             MAY          CHANGE       %CHANGE     DAYS/COVER
--------   -------------   -------------   -------------  ------------  ----------
FORD           2,123,581       1,822,724        -300,857       -14.17%           5

Based on FORD's 20-day average daily share volume of 406,528, it would require approximately 5 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.

Quote from: Melf Elf on April 27, 2006, 05:47:47 AM
2. Technically, the Inverse H&S will have resolved to the downside, so it isn't bullish, and it would put Target: 4.32 IN PLAY, reinforcing the Target: 3.90 already IN PLAY from the December, 2005 breakdown of the Double H&S Top.

The 4.32 target that went IN PLAY on April 27 earnings on the downside takeout of the Inverse H&S Bottom MADE this morning.  The low so far was 4.28.

Mean, mean market.   

no news, BO 

FORWARD INDS INC (NasdaqCM:FORD) Delayed quote data 

Pre-Market (RT-ECN): 6.28  0.38 (6.44%)

Chart looks to have bottomed,
Fundamentals better than chart !

Technicals
Close Above the 50-day EMA
Percentage Gainer

Last Price Quote is:
29.60%above 13-day EMA
6.89%above 50-day EMA
RS Rating: 3 

Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $32.62 
P/E Ratio: 4.78 
PEG Ratio: N/A 
Next Earnings: N/A
Last Analyst Rating: N/A

Nice move to the upside from the $4.00 area.
Close above and bouncing off the 50-day MA.
Volume back up nicely.

Volume: 1,782,417
Avg Vol (3m): 318,181

Technicals
Close above the 50-day EMA
Percentage Gainer

Last Price Quote is:
34.31%above 13-day EMA
16.47%above 50-day EMA
RS Rating: 6 

Fundamentals
Earnings Expected on Jul 24

Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $44.18 
P/E Ratio: 6.47 
PEG Ratio: N/A 
Next Earnings: N/A
Last Analyst Rating: N/A

updated chart .....

Short Squeeze !
With a small share structure of 7.86 million outstanding,
7.29 million in the public float
OverSold and Under Valued

Volume: 2,807,000
Avg Vol (3m): 342,219

Technicals
Close Above the 50-day EMA

Last Price Quote is:
33.62%above 13-day EMA
20.77%above 50-day EMA
RS Rating: 7 

Fundamentals
Earnings Expected on Jul 24

Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $44.18 
P/E Ratio: 6.47 
PEG Ratio: N/A 
Next Earnings: N/A
Last Analyst Rating: N/A

Talk about not wanting to hold stocks through earnings, after a sharp rally to the $7s, just below $8 resistance, FORD has had another punishing selloff back to the $4s.

FORD is getting hammered down every earnings

Look at that, almost giving it back all its gains from 2005 rally

Quote from: Terliso on July 31, 2006, 04:28:34 PM
FORD is getting hammered down every earnings

Look at that, almost giving it back all its gains from 2005 rally

Alister,

Brutal.

Great example of a parabolic rally...and a parabolic return. 

Also a great example of "cheap can get a lot cheaper," and of "if the chart isn't telling the same story about "good fundamentals," and "oversold," defer to what the chart is telling you.

FORD's sales were down a whopping 44% in this report.  "First the chart...then the bad news."

UGH. 

Back above the 13-day and 50-day MA.....
volume surge, price action.
Volume: 1,963,550
Avg Vol (3m): 320,278

Technicals
Percentage Gainer

Last Price Quote is:
26.22%above 13-day MA
9.83%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: 83 

Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $33.49 
P/E Ratio: 7.39 
PEG Ratio: N/A 
Next Earnings: N/A
Last Analyst Rating: N/A

Quote from: setravis on August 24, 2006, 04:08:03 PM
P/E Ratio: 7.39 

setravis (or anyone else),

Do you think that P/E ratio is accurate?   Your chart says the P/E is 9.08, which still is very low.  FORD has been such a horrible earnings disaster this year, it makes me wonder, but if it is accurate, it might be worth watching it more closely.

That said, FORD completed THREE Bearish Patterns today. 

1. Bear Flag Top - Gapped down at the open.

2. Bearish H&S Top - Broke down this morning

3. Bear Flag - Broke down this afternoon

can I say FORD ..is going to forming the Ascending Triangles in day chart? today close at 5.37, up 7.83%...after market now is at 5.52.