3SOF

Since I'm a short-term trader I have a rule, do not hold stocks through earnings reports.

I definately agree with you...too much risk involved. I think I will just let this run play out and take profits later this week... 

BTW - My target is 2.45

TA Breakout Chart...

posted something similar in the ascending triangle post.....

http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=4712.msg60053#msg60053

cheers, i
B

This looks like a true breakout to me cuz the bollinger bands are spreading apart.  Also, this is the highest closing.  The stock traded higher than this before, but never closed this high in the last year.  But on the downside, earnings are next week, and I like to be in trades longer than a few days.  Also we're running into 2-year-old resistance in the 2.40 range.

Good luck!
Leaira

Finally this puppy is moving!

Found this message(with 26recs) on the Yahoo MB

Should we sell prior to earnings?
by: cajone1979  05/03/06 10:43 pm
Msg: 81588 of 81633

That would appear to be the question of the day. So what might happen next Tuesday and soon thereafter?

Scenario #1
Management forecast at least $27M revenue 1H06. Let's assume 1Q06 revenue will consist ONLY of $10.3M service revenue (identical to 3Q and 4Q 05) and $0.6M deferred product revenue (per 10Q), yielding the worse case scenario $11M revenue for 1Q06....

That represents a 60% increase Q1 vs Q1 increase (1Q05 rev = $6.9M)...nice headline, don't you think!? Q1 net loss would be ($0.02) vs (0.11) in 1Q05, and in line with analyst estimates, and projected Q2 revenue would be AT LEAST $16M ($7M service + $9M deferred milestone revenue).

Scenario #2
Q1 revenue consists of the base $11M + a portion of the deferred milestone$2-3 M service revenue + $1M other sources....
1Q06 revenue would then slightly exceed 4Q05; Q1 to Q1 increase would be >100%; and net loss would be only (0.01) to nearly break-even.

Scenario #3
All deferred milestone revenue from 2005 is recognized in Q1...
1Q06 revenue would be ~ $20M representing a 3-FOLD Q1 vs Q1 increase, >50% increase from last quarter, and 4-5 cent net gain (I would love to write that headline). Only downside here, of course, would be the possible revenue gap in Q2, BUT.......

All 3 scenarios above are based on $27M 1H revenue. In line with past 5 quarter experience, however, bet on more here than was forecast ---maybe even a royalty dollar or two from Fuji.....

Equally important to finances at this point is the more tangible anticipation of the great things to come, and May is simply bubbling with opportunity: partner news, real product updates including a potential blockbuster MSFT release, new Efficeon detail, almost predictable improved guidance (if nothing else resulting from Sony renewal or inclusion of Toshiba $$ in guidance); or how about another licensee, or even an brokerage upgrade on nearly the 1 year anniversary of the infamous "farewell" article???

No---I'm holding for at least another double or two before I even think of selling a share.

Long and strong (and a lot richer) with IGNORE ON!!!!!!!!!!!!

Don't you think positive earnings is already priced into the stock?

TMTA, ahead of earnings:

1.  It had a breakout of a "W"-Bottom (pattern in blue) that put Target: 2.37 IN PLAY.  The target MADE to the exact penny on May 3.

Targets getting MADE doesn't mean that the stock won't go higher, but it's a good idea to "take profits when targets get MADE."  Sometimes, that's the high for awhile.

2. The rally to the 2.37 target is a Bearish Rising Wedge.  After the initial push to #1 (circled in red) on good volume, each successive rally to #3 and to #5 was on declining volume each time.  It's running out of momo.

3. The Bearish Rising Wedge also has the look of a Bearish Wolfe Wave. 

4. Wave #5 to the 2.37 target on May 3 was an upside "fakeout" above the Bearish Wedge, and it also was a Bearish Doji Star candlestick.

5. May 4 was another Doji Star candlestick.  A little one.  May 5 showed some weakness to the downside.

Wow Melf,
This is interesting.... the way i see it is that TMTA had a breakout from the ascending trinagle and now it is consolidating on a bullish flag of falling wedge w lowering volumne.. I think this stock is seeting itself up for another leg up...
I would appreciate any commnets if you see a flaw in my read of this chart...
comments appreciated...

thanks
B

My thoughts on TMTA...

1) I think they will report a good one on tuesday
2) The trendline still valid in the weekly chart
3) No doubt that the BULLS still controlling TMTA (we will find that out on tuesday if they still do)
4) I like the set-up in the weekly chart
5) Most of all............................------->>>>Moving Averages<<<----

Only my thoughts & trade it good..............

Quote from: beroznikmal on May 07, 2006, 11:12:56 AM
Wow Melf,
This is interesting.... the way i see it is that TMTA had a breakout from the ascending trinagle and now it is consolidating on a bullish flag of falling wedge w lowering volumne.. I think this stock is seeting itself up for another leg up...

B.,

Wow...that is interesting!    Applause for your post.

Quote
I would appreciate any commnets if you see a flaw in my read of this chart...
comments appreciated...

An Ascending Triangle should have two reaction highs that are relatively equal.  They don't have to be exact, but should be in "reasonable proximity."  The latter is a judgment call.

The way that you've drawn your Ascending Triangle:

1. You've ignored the rally to the high of 2.18 on March 21, and started your pattern at a lower price, a few days later.  That seem like an arbitrary place to begin the pattern.  I wouldn't ignore the 2.18 high.

2. I especially wouldn't ignore the March 20 and 21 rally to the 2.18 high and start the pattern elsewhere because that two day push to 2.18 were the highest volume days since August, 2005.  That has some significance.

3. The March 21 high of 2.18 also marked the end of a five week rally.  TMTA had a sideways to down consolidation after that, and found support two cents below the little Ascending Triangle (pattern in blue...those highs are 'close enough' to be a little Ascending Triangle, BTW).

In my view, the end of a rally or the end of a decline is a pivotal point on a chart.  We want to see what happens after that, so it's a good place to label #1.  Then at the following reaction high or reaction low, place a #2.  Then #3 and #4.  Now, extend both trendlines out into the future.

Once those are in place, we can see  how the market reacts to those trendlines.  

In this case, on April 24, April 26 and April 27, TMTA reacted to the lower trendline by finding support, and by finally rallying back to the top of the Bearish Rising Wedge.  That's called a trendline validation.  The market is telling us very clearly that there is validity to the trendline that we drew off #2 and #4.

What happened afer that?  On May 3, TMTA broke through the top of the pattern, making the 2.37 target that was IN PLAY, then closed back below it.

Three things about that suggest that there is validiity to the Bearish Rising Wedge pattern:

1. If you draw your pattern exactly as I have, the volume at #1, #3 and #5 gets successively lower.  That's a hallmark of a Bearish Rising Wedge.  It "appears" to still be bullish, but rallies are on declining volume.

2. The rally to 2.37, so far, was a "fakeout breakout."  TMTA couldn't hold the breakout at the close.

3. The May 3 candlestick is a Bearish Doji Star, as I mentioned earlier.  That's just one candlestick.  We want confirmation that it really is bearish.  So far, we have another little Bearish Doji Star, and then little black candlestick, indicating some weakness.  

All of that only is "evidence" that we try to piece together, especially ahead of earnings.  That doesn't mean that TMTA can't break out to the upside on great earnings.  The fundamentals always have a chance of trumping the technicals.  But, as the chart stands, I view the pattern from the March 21 high as a classic Bearish Rising Wedge.

Obviously, we differ on that, and since you're long and I'm not, I hope that TMTA reports outstanding earnings, and that this pattern (whichever it is) resolves with a big move to the UPSIDE.

   

Good luck, B.!  (And, good luck to Alister, who I see just posted) 

Melf,
wow that was a very impressive answer! I must admit the reasoning behind ur anlysis is sound!

I have reviisied my diagram on TMTA and i still think it is bullish
Notice that i included the breakout om March 21 per your recommendation, point 1

on 4/7/6, the resistance that was established on march 21 was confirmed. this was again confirmed on 4/28/06....

TMTA then brokeout of the triangle and this was confirmed by high volume....

currently, I still think is is consilidating......

I am currently on the border line with TMTA! and this is the reson for my curiousity! thanx for ir response! much appreciated!

I still have two business days to decide on whether to hold my position or not! ah I love the game!

Cheers
B

Quote from: beroznikmal on May 07, 2006, 05:13:42 PM
on 4/7/6, the resistance that was established on march 21 was confirmed. this was again confirmed on 4/28/06....

TMTA then brokeout of the triangle and this was confirmed by high volume....

B.,

You certainly have a case, and you've presented it very well.  Applause.

The volume on the recent breakout to 2.37 was good, but it was less than it was at #1 and #3, and it also was less than the volume on the breakout of the "W'-Bottom in late February, and less than it was at the second data point (1.81) of the little Ascending Triangle (pattern in blue) on March 7.

What bothers me about that is the fact that Bearish Wedges "appear to be bullish" because the stock still is making higher highs, as TMTA is, but one of the ways that you can tell that it's a Bearish Rising Wedge, is that volume decreases as the stock rallies into the convergence of the trendlines, which also is the case with TMTA. 

Quote
I still have two business days to decide on whether to hold my position or not!

Do you ever feel like if you hold it, the stock will crash, if you sell it, the stock will gap up 20%?

   

Two numbers that you might want to consider in making your decision are 2.21 and 2.18.

2.21, the low of the Bearish Doji Star Hangman the day that TMTA made the high of 2.37 last week, can be considered a technical "sell pivot."  A print of 2.20, a tick below that low, can be considered a technical sell.  It's another piece of evidence:  the entire May 3 candlestick (2.21 - 2.37) will have been traded below on a print of 2.20.

2.18, the March 21 high, is the top of your Ascending Triangle.  A print of 2.17, especially a close of 2.17, puts TMTA back below the Ascending Triangle, just a day or two ahead of earnings.  Another piece of evidence.

Below that, of course, is key support along the bottom trendline of the pattern, which twice has been validated as support.  If that gets broken to the downside, I'd  be surprised if it's today or Tuesday.  The market seems to have a perverse proclivity for reserving those breaks for a gap down if earnings disappoint, or if the response to earnings is "good earnings....but, buy the rumor... sell the news."

Just a few things to consider in making your decision.  Best of luck to you!

Quote
ah I love the game!

Me-e-e-e, too!  Great fun! 

Sorry about the chart looking scrunched.  I have to remove the title bars from all of my other windows in order to show you volume, but they still take up some room.

Quote

Quote

Quote from: Terlisa on May 07, 2006, 01:10:56 PM
My thoughts on TMTA...

1) I think they will report a good one on tuesday
2) The trendline still valid in the weekly chart
3) No doubt that the BULLS still controlling TMTA (we will find that out on tuesday if they still do)
4) I like the set-up in the weekly chart
5) Most of all............................------->>>>Moving Averages<<<----

Only my thoughts & trade it good..............

I also think we might get a positive surprise tomorrow, CEO Swift stated in his last CC they expect the MICROSOFT Secret Project to be completed the first half of this year, maybe we get some  news of that. Also today  SONY & MICROSOFT are making major announcements in Los Angeles regarding Playstation 3 and XBOX, coïncidence? 

Quote from: Se7en on May 08, 2006, 10:42:19 AM

Quote from: Terlisa on May 07, 2006, 01:10:56 PM
My thoughts on TMTA...

1) I think they will report a good one on tuesday
2) The trendline still valid in the weekly chart
3) No doubt that the BULLS still controlling TMTA (we will find that out on tuesday if they still do)
4) I like the set-up in the weekly chart
5) Most of all............................------->>>>Moving Averages<<<----

Only my thoughts & trade it good..............

I also think we might get a positive surprise tomorrow, CEO Swift stated in his last CC they expect the MICROSOFT Secret Project to be completed the first half of this year, maybe we get some news of that. Also today SONY & MICROSOFT are making major announcements in Los Angeles regarding Playstation 3 and XBOX, coïncidence?

Hum this is very interesting....
I am still 50/50 on this stock... it went up on new higs with below average volume... usually when this happens pre CC the stock goes the opposite way post earnings.. but who knows...
Will decide later today....

Cheers...
B