3SOF

Great analysis Melf!  Rescued from the island.. I hope that oscillation above the gap on the left side of your chart doesn't take too long to get through.


update IMOS:

IMOS gave us the entry we wanted  but now it has to prove us right by heading up from here or consolidating tightly.  Its got the numbers and the TA to make us some green.. so lets go! 

------
Position: bought IMOS @ 7.91 on 05/05/2006
Order: Hold
Exit: stop @ 7.20
Target: n/a
------

update IMOS:

IMOS gave us the entry we wanted  but now it has to prove us right by heading up from here or consolidating tightly.  Its got the numbers and the TA to make us some green.. so lets go! 

------
Position: bought IMOS @ 7.91 on 05/05/2006
Order: Hold
Exit: stop @ 7.20
Target: n/a
------

nice outlook, older news (yahoo board quotation):

DDR2 will be contributing a BIG portion of Revenues by Q4 according to the company so Profit-margins will be Increasing at the same time Revenues

ChipMOS forecasts standard DRAM packaging and testing ASP increase, plans to expand
   
Latest news
Amy Lee, Taipei; Carrie Yu, DigiTimes.com [Thursday 13 April 2006]

ChipMOS Technologies expects the ASP (average selling price) for standard DRAM packaging and testing to rise 50-70% when DDR2 memory replaces DDR in the mainstream at the end of the second quarter. The company also plans on capacity expansion for packaging and testing of DDR2 memory through next quarter.

DDR memory is usually packaged using TSOP (thin small outline package) and the ASP is around US$0.22 per chip. DDR2 memory, on the other hand, requires Window BGA packaging, which has an ASP of more than US$0.42 per chip. In addition, the testing time for DDR2 memory using T5585 tester series is nearly double the time for testing DDR memory while the former also needs to be tested on T5593 tester series, which is more expensive, sources said. When considering the average prices, it's important to remember that the shift from DDR to DDR2 also involves an increase in the average density per chip.
As the shift to DDR2 memory will bring about an increase in the packaging and testing ASP, ChipMOS expects its gross margin to increase three to five percentage points.
In the meantime, it will double its Window BGA packaging capacity to 20 million units per month at the beginning of next quarter, as it has received orders to package and test 4-5 million DDR2 chips from a major US-based memory maker, the company said.
Currently, ChipMOS sees 25-30% of its monthly sales from DDR2 memory packaging and testing.

http://www.digitimes.com/bits_chips/a20060413PR213.html

Bought IMOS at 7.78.  Stop: below 7.00.  Risk: a loss of 10%.

I wanted IMOS just above the high (7.71) of the "Bullish Island" that I discussed in my last post.  I was pleased to get it until I looked at the intraday chart, and realized that it looks like IMOS just completed a short-term H&S Top.

 

Oops!

Volume is consistent with that, too, if you scroll down to the bottom of the chart.  Volume was the highest in the Right Shoulder, next highest in the Head, then weakest in the Right Shoulder.

The bad news is that we head down toward to earnings gap.

The good news is that Bearish targets are less likely to get MADE in a stock that is acting bullish, as IMOS is.

We'll see how it does here.

Good luck to everybody.

update IMOS:

Pulling back today with the rest of the market.. should find support soon.. volume is still coming in above average and steady.

------
Position: bought IMOS @ 7.91 on 05/05/2006
Order: Hold
Exit: stop @ 7.20
Target: n/a
------

update IMOS:

Pulling back today with the rest of the market.. should find support soon.. volume is still coming in above average and steady.

------
Position: bought IMOS @ 7.91 on 05/05/2006
Order: Hold
Exit: stop @ 7.20
Target: n/a
------

UMC and TSMC were down today about the same percentagewise, these Hsinchu science park company stocks tend to move in lockstep often.  Of course, it was all brought on by DELL ...

We're just about at the H&S Top target: 7.47 IN PLAY from the neckline break.  That's the low of the earnings gap.  We might not get there, since it's a bearish target in a bullish trend.

I'd like to see that 7.35 - 7,47 earnings gap, or most of it, not get filled. 

Quote from: Melf Elf on May 10, 2006, 11:15:03 AM
We're just about at the H&S Top target: 7.47 IN PLAY from the neckline break.  That's the low of the earnings gap.  We might not get there, since it's a bearish target in a bullish trend.

I'd like to see that 7.35 - 7,47 earnings gap, or most of it, not get filled. 

IMOS printed 7.50, three cents from the 7.47 target IN PLAY.  That's about right.  I can't calculate the targets exactly on these intraday charts like I can on the Metastock daily charts.

None of the gap was filled.  Hopefully, that's the low, and IMOS can get moving to the upside again.

Allright Melf Elf!  Looking better

Thank you Melf Elf for the T/A update at the right moment(Applaud)
jorgegr

Quote from: SmartWrasse on May 10, 2006, 03:07:45 PM
Allright Melf Elf!  Looking better

SmartWrasse,

Applause for the clever srceen name.  Cracks me up! 

I would like to have seen a better close, so we might have some more downside toward that gap, but I really like the overall chart, and elteG's and Oliver's very nice work on it.  We'll see what tomorrow shall bring.

Quote from: jorgegr on May 10, 2006, 03:22:29 PM
Thank you Melf Elf for the T/A update at the right moment(Applaud)
jorgegr

jorgegr,

Thank you, and applause to you for your very nice work on CUP. 

I meant to applaud you on that today, but I got too busy, and forgot.  Sorry.

I really missed the boat on that one.  CUP broke an up trendline and got spanked for it awhile back, and I quit watching it when it broke support in the mid-2.00s. 

Look at it now....look at it now-w-w-w!  Good for you, for staying on the ball.

Soo-oo many stocks to look at...so little time...   

Good luck to you and to Smart Ass...er-r-r-r...I mean Smart Wrasse...in all of your trading! 

Zacks PEG Ratio Strategy Highlights: ChipMOS Technologies, Eagle Materials, Grey Wolf, and Helix Energy Solutions
Thursday , May 11, 2006 06:00 ET

CHICAGO, May 11, 2006 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- If you like to use a company's P/E ratio to determine its value, then you'll love using the PEG Ratio Profit Track. The PEG Ratio can calculate if a stock is undervalued relative to its expected future growth. Using this indicator in a Profit Track can produce stellar profits, such as a +16.3% return in 2005 and continued strong returns in 2006. Four stocks meeting this screen's exclusive criteria are: ChipMOS Technologies, LTD. (Nasdaq:IMOS), Eagle Materials, Inc. (NYSE:EXP), Grey Wolf, Inc. (NYSE:GW) and Helix Energy Solutions, Inc. (Nasdaq:HELX). View the entire list of stocks for the PEG Ratio Profit Track at http://at.zacks.com/?id=1837

Here are details about four companies currently identified by the PEG Ratio Profit Track:

ChipMOS Technologies, LTD. (Nasdaq:IMOS), a Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stock, recently reported strong first-quarter results. Earnings per share were nearly 25% better than analyst projections (27 cents versus 22 cents per share). Analysts responded by revising their earnings forecasts upward for the full year by seven cents to $1.10 per share. These analysts also appear to like IMOS' valuation, a P/E of 11.2 and a PEG ratio of 0.28, as is evidenced by the average broker recommendation (ABR) of 1.0.

Quote from: la-onda on May 11, 2006, 09:02:50 AM
Here are details about four companies currently identified by the PEG Ratio Profit Track:

ChipMOS Technologies, LTD. (Nasdaq:IMOS), a Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stock, recently reported strong first-quarter results. Earnings per share were nearly 25% better than analyst projections (27 cents versus 22 cents per share). Analysts responded by revising their earnings forecasts upward for the full year by seven cents to $1.10 per share. These analysts also appear to like IMOS' valuation, a P/E of 11.2 and a PEG ratio of 0.28, as is evidenced by the average broker recommendation (ABR) of 1.0.

Oliver,

Great information.  Applause.

Another stock that made Zacks PEG Ratio Profit Track screen is ASTSF, one of IMOS' competitors.  By comparison, ASTSF has a PEG ratio of 0.37 and a P/E ration of 26.48, both of which are higher than IMOS, yet ASTSF currently is up 31.9% from its February, 2006 breakout, while IMOS has lagged badly.

For IMOS, Zacks has full year estimate at 1.10, and at 1.27 for 2007.  That's a P/E ratio of only 6.89 basis yesterday's closing price, and a forward 2007 P/E of only 5.97.  I'm not any good at fundamentals, so I'll leave that to those of you who are, but that sounds pretty undervalued, unless there's something else going on that I don't understand, like a lot of debt, etc.

 

By the way, cheap stocks (fundamentally) on that PEG screen might be a good place to go shopping for picks, if the charts look good, too, huh?

DAVID NASSAR
Getting a clear picture on ChipMOS
Commentary: Flat-screen TV component maker in play
By David Nassar
Last Update: 12:01 AM ET Apr 5, 2005

BOULDER, Colo. (MarketWatch) -- Do you own one of those cool new flat screen plasma televisions, or have you been waiting for prices to come down before you make your purchase?
The average price of the 32-inch flat screen televisions has come down over 35% in the last year, but even with falling prices, these sets represented less than 10% of the television market in the United States last year.
This number is expected to grow to more than 20% by 2007 as prices continue to drop and the televisions become more affordable to a larger segment of the population. Obviously this type of growth will reward companies involved in making and selling the televisions as well as the shareholders of their stocks.
Before we mention an idea that we think is poised for 30% or more upside from these levels we need to consider what makes a good stock idea. First and foremost, for us to consider a stock for a potential longer term hold (three to six months) the stock must be in an uptrend. For simplicity, we will define that uptrend as being above the 50-, 100- and 200-day moving averages.
By purchasing a stock that is trending higher we are immediately on the right side of the trend and we can then easily determine where we should exit the trade with a small loss if that trend shows signs of reversing. Technical analysis allows us to determine the amount of risk we are willing to accept relative to the perceived amount of reward if the trade goes in our favor. In a word, it is about timing.
Fundamental analysis is important for our investment decisions because it gives us a reason for being involved, and more importantly a reason for others to be involved. When it comes to fundamentals we all have the same information and the objective study of this information allows us to not only value what a stock is worth in terms of historic measures but also potential future valuations. When we review a company's fundamentals, we are trying to determine if it is a "good company."
The company that is involved in LCD technologies is called ChipMOS Technologies (IMOS
chipmos tech bermuda ltd shs
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IMOS ) . The main business of IMOS is testing and packaging of LCD driver semiconductors and business has been consistently growing for the company. In 2002 the company had revenues of $188 million and lost money. In 2003 they managed to show a profit of 22 cents a share on revenues of $265 million. Last year, revenues jumped to $452 million and the company earned 79 cents a share. In 2005 the company is expected to see revenues grow to $550 million which should drive profits of $1 per share. Estimates for 2006 are for revenues over $600 million and profits of over $1.35 a share. Clearly, this company is one that is growing.
The stock of IMOS is a different story, hovering near $6.70, the stock trades at less than 10 times last year's numbers and at 7 times this years estimate. On a PE valuation, the stock is cheap. Last year the stock traded at a high of $15.55 in January and then got hit hard, trading as low as $3.56 in August. After another bounce up to just under $10, the stock sold off again and has spent the first quarter of this year recovering. On a weekly chart, the stock is back above all of the relevant moving averages and that indicates the buyers are regaining control of the momentum.
In this tricky market environment, upside profits are difficult to come by which is why we need to make sure the technicals and fundamentals confirm each other before putting our money to risk.
The stock of IMOS represents a situation that appears to be sound for a trade with an upside target near $9-$10 and a stop loss under the recent higher low at $6.05.

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7BE70983BE%2DF25C%2D47F8%2D8544%2D0AA00E10351D%7D&link=&keyword=imos&print=true&dist=printTop