3SOF

The CEO @ CHK is still BUYING ! CHK, ADM will be story stocks in late 2006-2007, you will be able to compare CHK and/or ADM next year to this year high fliers like ATI and HANS !

Quote from: REALDEALS21 on May 10, 2006, 11:15:49 PM
The CEO @ CHK is still BUYING !

REALDEALS,

Thanks for that information.  Applause.  CEO McClendon bought about $57,000,000 worth of CHK (150,000 shares) in January at an average cost of  $32.31.  At yesterday's close of $32.99, he's "only" got a gain of $102,000, but it's still a gain.  He was well under water in February when CHK went to $27.75, so I'm glad to know that he's still confident, and still buying.

     

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CHK, ADM will be story stocks in late 2006-2007, you will be able to compare CHK and/or ADM next year to this year high fliers like ATI and HANS !

Oooo-ooo...that would be nice! 

Since earnings on May 1, CHK looks like it's finding support again at the trendline coming off the St. Valentine's Day low, at 27.75.  There were 4 hits to that trendline, but it got broken on the gap fills, and on the test of the 50/200DMAs.

On May 8, CHK opened on it, violated it intraday, but then rallied.  Yesterday, it went down there again, and banged higher off it (Hit #6).  I'd like to see that remain support now.

Are you in this one with cumulina and me?  We could use some more company while this stock bores us to death.

 

Short term it is totally a momentum play.Long term they should do good because about 6 or 7 years ago when they first came in picture they had started buying a lot of smaller production but with good reserves a lot of that stuff has not been tapped yet .

Quote from: Melf Elf on April 25, 2006, 10:44:04 AM
Bought CHK at 32.12 on the gap fill.  Stop: below the March 31 low of 30.87, prior to the breakout.  Risk: a loss of 3.9%.

CHK is indicated at BID 30.90...ASK 31.00.  Good chance that I'll be stopped out near the open.  I'll take the hit (roughly 4%) on a print of 30.86.

A break of 30.87 still "could be" a Bull Flag if it doesn't go too much lower, but I'm not going to try to guess what it "could be."  I shouldn't be having this much trouble on a stock that just had a bullish breakout of a 7-month pattern, and one that just reported very good eanrings.

SELL at 30.86.

I hope you don't get stopped out, Melf Elf...but it looks like you will. 

I'll hang on to mine, stubborn as I am.

Thanks for the analysis.

Quote from: cumulina on May 15, 2006, 09:23:36 AM
I hope you don't get stopped out, Melf Elf...but it looks like you will. 

cumulina,

Yep, I'm stopped out at the open.

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I'll hang on to mine, stubborn as I am.

Thanks for the analysis.

Good luck, Trading Buddy!  Sorry to say farewell (where's that crying face on the toolbar?).

   

It has been rough since last time we talked about CHK... but things seems to get better now.

Looking at the chart, I can only see confusion  except for today with that almost double volume!

I bought some more the other day, when CHK was lower - a rare thing for me to think ahead like that.

I'm still in "the red" (my average price is now 30.58) but not as much as before 

Hoping that my stubbornness will pay off soon...

Finally! Finally!

I'm in the green with CHK...

It has been a long wait, and I have been flipping coins (many!) if I should sell or hold over earnings.
Luckily for me, I held.

This time I won't let profit turn into a loss - I promise, I promise! 

At least not all of it...

Quote from: cumulina on July 28, 2006, 05:38:54 PM
Finally! Finally!

I'm in the green with CHK...

It has been a long wait, and I have been flipping coins (many!) if I should sell or hold over earnings.
Luckily for me, I held.

cumulina,

Wonderful! 

I thought of you yesterday when I saw CHK trading back above $32 and wondered if you still had it.

This week looks to be an upside breakout of a Descending Triangle for CHK.  Before I show you a close-up of that (next post), here's a 10-year chart, so you can see the resolution of the two-year Descending Triangle in 2001-2002.

Descending Triangles lean toward being bearish because, while the bottom is flat and support is holding (see the 4.50 lows in 2001 and 2002), the highs (the descending line) are successively lower, indicating weaker and weaker rallies.  If the descending line gets taken out to the upside, however, like it did in late 2002, and if the high of the Descending Triangle gets taken out to the upside, like it did after that breakout, that's bullish.

By the way, notice all of the bullish breakouts from the 1999 low of 0.625 to the late 2005 high of 40.20. 
   

Notice also the steep angle of ascent of the last rally off the June, 2005 breakout.  That was a straight up parabolic rally, which often is seen at the end of a spectacular run like CHK had.  After that kind of "blowoff rally," the stock either has a "parabolic return" to the point of the parabolic breakout, or it trades "sideways-to-down," to digest the fabulous gains, then continues to rally, or it trades sideways-to-down, then tanks.



The latter...trading "sideway-to-down," then tanking...was my concern when I stopped out my position in mid-May, when the Symmetrical Triangle broke to the downside.  Stan Weinstein described that as "Stage 3," which is a topping process, then "Stage 4" begins, which is a period of decline.

Instead, though, it appears that the Symmetrical Triangle "morphed" (changed) into a Descending Triangle, and that the Descending Triangle has broken out to the upsdie this week.

We'll look at that next post.

cumulina,

Sorry that this chart is difficult to look at, but real quick, I wanted to show you the Symmetrical Triangle that I was looking at in May.  That's the pattern in black.

There was a false upside breakout in April, above the pattern in black, then then break below it in May, where I stopped out my long postion.



Triangles can be tricky.  Often, they "morph," or change, into something else.  This one looks to have "morphed" into a Descending Triangle (the pattern in blue).

I'll get rid of the Symmetrical Triangle (pattern in black) since it's no longer applicable, and show you just the Descending Triangle (pattern in blue) next post (known among technicians as a "redraw").

cumulina,

Here's the Descending Triangle.  You can see that CHK has broken out above the descending line, and is very near the top of the Kumo (Cloud).

The top of the Kumo (Cloud) is at 32.5275, so CHK might run into short-term resistance there, and pullback some.  The high this week was 32.28.

The 8-week (green line) and 22-week (red line) also are inverted.  The faster 8-week (green) should be above the slower 22-week (red). 

What helps a lot to get those two "in gear" is for the stock to thrust higher,  but it might take awhile, with some more backing and filling.

Overall, it's good to see CHK breaking out ABOVE the pattern, rather than BELOW the pattern, which would have been a break of the 26.59 - 26.81 lows.

If for some reason those lows get broken in the weeks ahead, that would be a breakdown of this nine-month pattern, and that likely would be the beginning of a Stage 4 decline.  Personally, I definitely would sell a break of that support.

Barring that occurrence, this looks fine.  Good luck to you, cumulina!

Thank you, Melf Elf. 

What a lot of work you have done there, I'll chew on it some more over the weekend.

Let's just hope that CHK will stick it's head up over the "cloud" and continue it's happy jurney upwards.

Hopefully somebody else can also benefit from your charts.

My big fear is to be "Cramer-ized".

Oh, well.

Right now I'll just enjoy the feeling of being rich and clever.

Cheers, and have a good weekend.

Since rallying from 27.90 to 33.19 in October, off a Bullish Island Reversal, CHK has been consolidating those gains in a Symmetrical Triangle, which "should be" a Bullish Continuation Pattern.

CHK is back at the top of the pattern for the FOURTH time, champing at the bit for a breakout.

Technically, it broke out above the trendline yesterday, but eased off a bit at the close of 32.90.  It looks ready to go.

Weekly chart looks good, too.  See next post.

2006 has been a consolidation of the BIG gains in 2005.  Chart looks good.  Solid company.  As far as I know, insiders continue to buy. 

If the $33.00s get taken out to the upside, and it looks like they will, I'd expect CHK to return as least to the 40.20 high in 2007.

33.76 - 26.81 = 6.95 Points + 33.76 = Target: 40.71

Bought CHK near the open, at 32.83.  Stop: 31.29, below the low of the Ascending Triangle.  Risk: a loss of 4.7%.