3SOF

IHR(nyse) - Interstate Hotels & Resorts

Mkt Cap:           202.82M
Float:                  28.46M

Profile:  Interstate Hotels & Resorts, the nation's largest independent hotel management company, operated 282 hospitality properties with nearly 64,000 rooms in 41 states, the District of Columbia, Canada, and Russia. BridgeStreet Worldwide, an Interstate Hotels & Resorts subsidiary, is one of the world's largest corporate housing providers. BridgeStreet and its network of Global Partners offer more than 8,900 corporate apartments located in more than 95 MSAs throughout the United States and internationally. Interstate's stock is traded on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol IHR.

The company also operates hotels for REITs, such as the Blackstone Group, Equity Inns and Sunstone Hotel Investors, as well as institutional real estate owners, non-institutional ownership groups and privately held companies.

With more than 280 hotels, Interstate is able to obtain economies of scale that help lower overall operating costs and improve the bottom line performance of its managed hotels.

Interstate Hotels & Resorts has two subsidiaries:

   * BridgeStreet Worldwide - one of the world's largest corporate housing providers.
   * Continental Design - a procurement, design management, project management, construction management and engineering consultation provider for hotel owners

website: http://www.interstatehotels.com/


Trade Plan

This trade on IHR is being made based on technical analysis.  A technical setup like this would only occur with solid fundamental backing.  On quick inspection the PE(trailing and forward) seem quite low as well as the the P/S ratio when compared to industry peers.  Great price action when the rest of the market has been beat up.

Technically IHR is showing strong bullish power.  The stock broke out of an ascending channel and just confirmed the channel as support.  Volume has been steadily increasing and will start to be noticed by bigger players(like 3SOF  ).  The long-term chart portrays a breakout and potential for a 9-10 target.

The chart is on fire so we've got to have it for the 3SOF portfolio.

We will buy IHR in the morning on 5/23

G., and Frederick,

Just a suggestion about the "Buy in the Morning" instructions, in an effort to avert a problem in the future, especially in this difficult market.

Using yesterday's "Buy in the Morning" instruction on XING as an example, XING had closed the prior day at 8.13.  It opened lower at 8.02, and there were lots of opportuniites to buy it cheaper than that, which 3SOF did.

What if XING had gapped up to say, 8.60, then went down to 7.55 "in the morning," and closed at 7.55?  What if XING kept tanking, and it was sold in the 3SOF portfolio at, say, 6.80?

The 3 SOF Portfolio would have a loss of 13.6%, but any 3SOF member who bought the gap up opening at 8.60 "in the morning" would have a 20.9% loss.  If they didn't pay 8.60, and only paid 8.30, they still would have a loss of  18.1%, which is a good bit greater than the 3SOF portfolio.

In order for members to be able to reasonably match the performance of the 3SOF portfolio, you might want to suggest a range.  Something like:

"Buy XING in the morning between 8.00-8.20."

That way, we aren't crowding the market with a lot of "Buy at open" orders, members can try to get the best price that they can, and everyone would be in the stock, within a 2½% range.  Some will be in at 8.20...some at 8.10...some at 8.00.

Everyone  will know when they see 8.00 the 3SOF Portfolio definitely is in because that's the low of the buy range. They also will know that if they see  the stock approaching 8.20 that they need to buy it if they want in near the 3SOF portfolio entry price, because the 3SOF would buy an approach to 8.20 (since it wouldn't be likely that the stock is going down to 8.00)

Just a suggestion, guys.

Quote from: Melf Elf on May 23, 2006, 08:54:39 AM
G., and Frederick,

Just a suggestion about the "Buy in the Morning" instructions, in an effort to avert a problem in the future, especially in this difficult market.

Using yesterday's "Buy in the Morning" instruction on XING as an example, XING had closed the prior day at 8.13.  It opened lower at 8.02, and there were lots of opportuniites to buy it cheaper than that, which 3SOF did.

What if XING had gapped up to say, 8.60, then went down to 7.55 "in the morning," and closed at 7.55?  What if XING kept tanking, and it was sold in the 3SOF portfolio at, say, 6.80?

The 3 SOF Portfolio would have a loss of 13.6%, but any 3SOF member who bought the gap up opening at 8.60 "in the morning" would have a 20.9% loss.  If they didn't pay 8.60, and only paid 8.30, they still would have a loss of  18.1%, which is a good bit greater than the 3SOF portfolio.

In order for members to be able to reasonably match the performance of the 3SOF portfolio, you might want to suggest a range.  Something like:

"Buy XING in the morning between 8.00-8.20."

That way, we aren't crowding the market with a lot of "Buy at open" orders, members can try to get the best price that they can, and everyone would be in the stock, within a 2½% range.  Some will be in at 8.20...some at 8.10...some at 8.00.

Everyone  will know when they see 8.00 the 3SOF Portfolio definitely is in because that's the low of the buy range. They also will know that if they see  the stock approaching 8.20 that they need to buy it if they want in near the 3SOF portfolio entry price, because the 3SOF would buy an approach to 8.20 (since it wouldn't be likely that the stock is going down to 8.00)

Just a suggestion, guys.

Melf Elf,

Applaud for this idea.

I think many of us have developed our own interpretatoins of what to do when we see the stock going up on buy day, but having a suggested range would be great.  I hope something like that gets implemented.

I, on the other hand, see that it would defeat the general idea of being able to place one's orders before leaving home to go to work (if living in the ET zone), then forget about it for the rest of the day.

Also, if with the example of a range of $8.00-8.20 the stock opens above 8.20 and remains there for the whole day, the stock would not get bought.

The principle of buying not higher than 8.20, if that's what the recommendation needs to be, can be achieved just as well with a limit buy order. This still gives those who can watch the action at the open to do so and place a market order at their discretion. This still leaves the possibility of not buying the stock if it remains above the limit. (We had a case like that recently, where on successive days the limit had to be increased in order to get the stock)

There is, of course, the valid concern about the price pressure being created on a low volume stock. This applies not only when buying, but also when selling, which will complicate matters further if a staggered entry and exit are aimed for. For example, today's recommendation for IGII – trading at very low volume today – is designed not to have us all sell at one time if the price drops to a certain level towards the close (that's 10 pm my time and fortunately I have no dinner appointment tonight)

The alternative would be not to touch low-volume stocks, and perhaps miss out on some good opportunities.

Let me add my technical analysis... I might be wrong you know...
and maybe IHR wants to rally some more & break that all-time high resistance @ $6.75

That chart down there, Just my opinion... don't take it seriously


IHR & GIGM charts:

That chart is kind of BIG, here is the little one

G,

how come your Long-Term chart is different with the chart of YAHOO?

Is that because you are using LINEAR scale?

Terliso - looking back at a chart you can always say there is a better buying point   hindsight is 20/20.  With the responsibility for a large portfolio that is followed by our members our positions must happen when there is enough volume to sustain us.

As you can see in my charts I do not use indicators for my trading.  MFI can travel over-extended for periods of time.. and 9ema can get left behind for the moment.  We are playing the ascending channel breakout on an extremely bullish stock with increasing volume... and it is not my long-term chart that is incorrect.  It is either yahoo or stockcharts.com and neither one makes much difference as to how we will play.

Quote from: eliteG on May 23, 2006, 01:36:07 PM

it is not my long-term chart that is incorrect.  It is either yahoo or stockcharts.com and neither one makes much difference as to how we will play.

I Appreciated the quick reply...
It's important to know which is one correct, because in the case of IHR if it bulls penetrated the (All-time high??) @ 6.75 then that would be good because we now know that all overhead resistance has been taken out

Thanks..

Maestro,

Those were good suggestions and valid concerns.  Applause.  

Bottom line for my post: I don't want to see Frederick, eliteG and Michael have any more stress than they already have after the difficult, disappointing time that we've had in the market recently.

They need to do what they do best: focus on the market.

When I read Frederick's "Buy in the Morning"  on XING, my first thought was, "I can see where that could become a problem," which I expressed this morning.

If everyone's okay with "Buy in the Morning," that's great with me.  

It looks like something may be fishy w/the yahoo chart as it shows what looks to be about a 1 day triple...

Thank you guys for the opinions on the "buy in the morning" order.  We are trying to treat each stock individually.  Some stocks can handle a buy @ mkt open.. some we will try to sit back on.. and it depends on the weight of the stock and how we feel about the position.  A buy in the morning means 2 things.  1) We will own that stock and 2) We think there may be an opportunity to pickup lower and no need to create buying pressure.

update IHR:

We have our position now in IHR.  We will place our stop ~8.5% away as this is below the channel support and gives room for some error.  Looking to move this stop up soon as IHR climbs. 

------
Position: bought IHR @ 6.65 on 05/23/2006
Order: Hold
Exit: stop @ 6.09
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IHR hit the Oct 04 $6.75 top and fell back from there. If it opens at or above today's close I am going to short it at the open. The resistance at 6.75 plus being extended so far above the moving averages plus just completing 3 White Soldiers (sort of, the last two soldiers had bad posture) plus RSI and MACD looking toppy short-term, and I think it's a screaming short. Just my T2T opinion. This will put me opposite the 3Stocks position. Good luck to longs (in every 3Stocks play except this one )

Quote from: Lucas Scott on May 24, 2006, 03:00:34 AM
IHR hit the Oct 04 $6.75 top and fell back from there. If it opens at or above today's close I am going to short it at the open. The resistance at 6.75 plus being extended so far above the moving averages plus just completing 3 White Soldiers (sort of, the last two soldiers had bad posture) plus RSI and MACD looking toppy short-term, and I think it's a screaming short. Just my T2T opinion. This will put me opposite the 3Stocks position. Good luck to longs (in every 3Stocks play except this one )

We just started our long position on IHR Lucas.. and with a million better stocks to short out there you choose the to play against us?  Just like when you said GV wouldn't pass its highs..  way to be a part of the team.  Just my T2T opinion.