3SOF

Quote from: Melf Elf on May 19, 2006, 07:52:47 AM
APPL could rally here off its 200DMA and put in a "new" Right Shoulder above 62.90, which was the low of the Left Shoulder, but that was an ugly move down from the "fakeout breakout" high of 73.80 on May 8 ,to yesterday's 63.12 low. 

Yesterday's close of 57.00, below the 57.67 Head of the Bullish Inverse H&S, was uglier still. 

As long as AAPL trades below 57.67, roughly 43.00 is IN PLAY.

Howdie Melf,
Thoughts on AAPL his next week?  I am currently out of it but thinking about shorting it again...  On the 3month weekly chart the trend is still down in price, MACD and RSI.... and this week the Volume was UP with the sell off...  You mentioned $43 in play if it closes below 57, well it is not quite there yet, but closing in the 57s.

it appears that $57 is strong support and that AAPL may be ready for a turn around after 6 down weeks in a row (at least a green week if not actual turn around) But if it goes below 57 i am tempted to short because of the over all market conditions, seems like AAPL could test the 40s or even that old gap at 38.  Thoughts... 

on the other hand if the market turns up this could be a great entry for a long position. 

Hope that you are having a good weekend, cheers Joe

Quote from: joet on June 18, 2006, 02:48:25 AM
You mentioned $43 in play if it closes below 57, well it is not quite there yet, but closing in the 57s.

joe,

I don't like the fact that AAPL had 3 closes last week below 57.67, the low of the Head of the Inverse H&S, nor do I like the fact that it closed the week out at 57.56.

That close isn't decisive enough, however, for me to get too Beared up on it.  After the Smackdown from 73.80 (22% loss, straight down) it's at least trying to hang onto the 57s, and looks like it wants to rally back to 64-65 on any NASDAQ rally, which is the low of the broken Right Shoulder, and 50/200DMAs.

Good risk:reward if you play it long from here (57.56) with a stop below last week's low of 56.69.
Risk: 1.5% on a stop out. Reward: 11.2% if AAPL goes to 64.

Hmmm-mm....you got me thinking on this one!   

I'm disinclined to take the trade because I reall-ly dislike closes below support.  That disposes me toward to Bear camp on APPL.  But, only 38% of market advisors are bullish at this juncture, a number within the range seen at market bottoms.  That suggests that those 3 nominal closes below 57.67 could be a Bear Trap, and that AAPL has a good chance of at least re-testing broken 64-65 support.

Hmmmm-mm...

On the other hand, in Bear Markets, its right to be bearish, so only 38% Bulls simply would be confirming a Bear Market.

That's what's so difficult about the current market enviornment, as Vic666 described in his NTRI post.  Did we just put in a market bottom that is significant enough to make it worth playing on the long side, even for a counter-trend rally, or was Thursday's 200 point rally in the Dow only a "One Day Wonder," with more downside to come?

I'm leaning toward a a rally at least to NDX 1628-1635, per my post on Frederick's thread on The World Market Indices Board, but I'm lousy at predicting anything.   

I'll have to think some more about playing AAPL.  The risk:reward is appealing.

It is a good short indeed .... now AAPL even broke the 50sma (weekly chart)
Target $45

First chart March 26,2006
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=3817.0

Bought back my shares of AAPL at 57.15.  Stop: 56.68. Risk: a loss of 0.8%.

I sold in May at an average cost of 69.92 (see page 2 this thread) for a 3% gain, so I've got a little house money to play with.  While I don't like the breaks of 57.67 support last week, I'm suspecting a Bear Trap. 

I also suspect a rally of some sort, given the fact that the NDX held its channel on a weekly close last Friday.   So, I'm sticking a toe in here on a low-risk trade.  If there are more sharks in the water, I at least don't lose an entire foot.

Quote from: Melf Elf on June 19, 2006, 11:02:21 AM
Bought back my shares of AAPL at 57.15.  Stop: 56.68. Risk: a loss of 0.8%.

Raising my stop to 57.34, a penny below the 1:13PM low.

AAPL is having a good day, up slightly, on another lousy day in the market. The NASDAQ Comp looks to have just completed a little H&S top, so I'm going to err on the side of caution here in an uncertain market, and take a tiny gain if 57.35 breaks.

I'll post the NASDAQ chart next.

Basis the 10-Minute chart, the 2114-2116 neckline of a H&S Top just broke to the downside.  the NASDAQ currently is 2115, re-testing the break.

 

Quote from: Melf Elf on June 19, 2006, 11:02:21 AM
Bought back my shares of AAPL at 57.15. 

Sold APPL at 57.72.  Gain: 1%.

Hated to sell it.  APPL is showing good relative strength today, but the NASDAQ is stuggling at 2115, the broken neckline.   I decided to take the small gain.  For the two trades in AAPL, I now have a combined gain of a whopping 4%.  Tough market.

 

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Quote from: Melf Elf on June 19, 2006, 02:20:51 PM
Sold APPL at 57.72.  Gain: 1%.

AAPL closed at 57.20, five cents above my entry, so that 1% gain doesn't seem as pathetic as it did when I sold.

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Hated to sell it.  APPL is showing good relative strength today, but the NASDAQ is stuggling at 2115, the broken neckline. 

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The NAZ Composite closed at 2110, after failing to regain the broken neckline. 

Howdie all,
AAPL short is what i am proposing...  i do not have the TA skiils that Melf has but i am studying and putting in my two cents (Snowy wants to hear from us, hopefully he will accept a newbies input as well    disclosure I am short on AAPL already at 60 on the morning of the big gap up this past week.

I believe that this gap will fill before too long.  I also believe that it is a bearish breakaway gap...  the 3 sessions since the gap have had higher highs and lows but lack strength in their direction, almost dojis.
Some feel that it will run into resistance around 65, personally i hope that it does not take that long but am willing to wait for that. 

It seems like the market sentiment is still bearish and August is historically a slow month, so coupled with this large gap i believe that AAPL is a good short in the next few days.
Thoughts??
Cheers Joe

Quote from: joet on July 26, 2006, 01:13:43 AM
Some feel that it will run into resistance around 65, personally i hope that it does not take that long but am willing to wait for that. 

Joe,

64.35 - 65.28 "should" provide some resistance here.  AAPL has rallied right up to that level, currently at 64.30.

64.35 was the low of the Right Shoulder, prior to the break (see daily chart above, posted on June 18).

Quote from: Melf Elf on July 26, 2006, 02:08:28 PM
Joe,

64.35 - 65.28 "should" provide some resistance here.  AAPL has rallied right up to that level, currently at 64.30.

Joe,

Make that 64.35 -65.41 resistance:

1. 64.35 - was the April 17 low of the Right Shoulder that got broken to the downside

2. 64.61 - today's data point on the down trendline (blue line) off the January high

3. 65.28 - the top of the Kumo (Cloud) EDIT: SORRY, IT'S AT 65.245.

4. 65.41 - the 200DMA (rising slightly each day)

Cramer gave it a "See ya at $80" BOOYAH on STOP TRADING yesterday afternoon, which popped it to the day's high of 64.64, before the selloff into the close.  That alone justifies shorting AAPL.

Just kidding.    

AAPL's got some momentum going, so if it can get through all of that resistance,  I strongly suggest that you pick a stop, and stick to it.  One of the worst mistakes that we can make is to "hang on" and hope that we end up "being right" in a trade.  That's what we commonly refer to as "ego," and it can be devasting in trading.

It's only one trade.  "Don't let a loss turn into a disaster."  Good luck, Joe!

Good morning Melf
Thank you for the TA and encouragement.  My short on AAPL is small and it is teaching me every day!  Any more thoughts here?  We should be due for a down day, even if it is only a red doji.  Even if it runs to 80 doesn't your TA tell you that it should test that big gap at some point this year?  The overall market is having a nice mid summer rally, but dont we expect an August slump (or perhaps did that just happen early this year?)  Yes there is so much psyche involved on a personal level... after covering my NTRI short last week for a loss and the down trend AAPL has been in i felt that the Gap was a sure short for at least $2 but NO, better company i guess and it sure does have momentum now...  will be deciding on a stop soon, but still feel that AAPL is overbought currently at around 65

Any thoughts on the PHM short thread?

CHDT.. are you thinking about buying a penny?  It seems to have found some support at .09 and could be stiing up for a nice G pattern... but volume is going away...

BRCD holding over 6.1 as i write.  curious to see which way this one breaks out of the range when it does...
cheers
joe

Quote from: joet on July 27, 2006, 11:01:00 AM
Good morning Melf
Thank you for the TA and encouragement.  My short on AAPL is small and it is teaching me every day!  Any more thoughts here?  We should be due for a down day, even if it is only a red doji.  Even if it runs to 80 doesn't your TA tell you that it should test that big gap at some point this year?

Joe,

No, TA doesn't "tell you" anything.  Be nice if it did. 

TA only shows you what's gone on up to this point in time.  Based on that, we have to decide if we want to make a play, or not.

Gaps don't have to get filled right away.  Some don't get filled for awhile.  Some don't get filled for a long, long time.  For example, a few gaps in AAPL that haven't been filled (split adjusted):

1. May 2, 2003 - gap up from 7.925

2. October 13, 2004 - gap up from 19.875

3. July 13, 2005 - gap up from 38.50

Quote(and the down trend AAPL has been in i felt that the Gap was a sure short for at least $2 but NO, better company i guess and it sure does have momentum now...  will be deciding on a stop soon, but still feel that AAPL is overbought currently at around 65

It's been a frustrating market.  You're getting some relief here, though.  AAPL got to 65.02 this morning, and now is in the red, at 63.44.

Try to remember to be careful about thinking what a stock "should do," and look at what it is doing, and remember what we discussed in the MRVL folder:

1. Did you short a break of support?  No.

2. Did you short a re-test of broken support/resistance? No.

That doesn't mean that your trade won't be a winner, but for shorts, try looking for those two things.

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Any thoughts on the PHM short thread?

Sorry, I haven't read it.  So many stocks...so little time. 

Ask yourself if PHM just broke support (a pattern or a meaningful trendline.

Ask yourself if PHM is re-testing a broken pattern, or a broken trendline.

If it isn't, you might want to leave it alone.  Just a suggestion.

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CHDT.. are you thinking about buying a penny?

No, I don't play pennies.  I just wanted to congratulate Frederick and G. for the 48% gain, and give them some encouragement.  They've had a tough time in this very difficult market,  as has everyone. 

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BRCD holding over 6.1 as i write.  curious to see which way this one breaks out of the range when it does...

Yeah, it's at 6.13 right now, slightly above Kumo (Cloud) resistance, at 6.085.  Still in the range.

Good luck with AAPL.  Hope that it's a winner for you! 

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Time to short AAPL!  Im waiting for it to get back upto 64 dollars to short. I just got a short alert from short-stocks.com they shorted at 64.45. AAPL has been up for 10 days in a row in this shitty market that makes it a great short.