3SOF

Bullish Tweezer Bottom candlesticks put in today and yesterday... awaiting confirmation.

Quote from: tokyopua on June 14, 2006, 08:00:17 PM
Bullish Tweezer Bottom candlesticks put in today and yesterday... awaiting confirmation.

Good observation, tokyopua.  Applause.

For anyone not familiar with a Tweezer Bottom, there are two bottoms that are indentical, or darned close to identical.  In this case, off the 5-minute chart, GV put in two lows exactly at 1.33.

The intervening high was 1.43, so confirmation that a short-term bottom is in is a print of 1.44.  GV printed exactly 1.44, so that's confirmation, and it puts Target: 1.53 IN PLAY.

Math:

1.43 - 1.33 = 0.10 Points.

Add the 0.10 back to 1.43 = Target: 1.53 IN PLAY

This pattern is very skimpy, in terms of width.  It's about two days worth of trading, and it has to go up against the recent three weeks worth of trading between 1.41 and 1.87.

Targets against the trend are less likely to make, especially when the pattern is as weak as this one is.  If the 1.53 target gets MADE, and if GV can hold 1.41 on any selloff (1.41 the double bottom that gotten broken), those would be positives for GV.

I like the fact that GV printed 1.44, came back and filled the morning gap, and now is back up to 1.42.  Again, it's a weak pattern, but it's a start.  The downside Target: 0.95 is ON HOLD as long as GV trades above 1.41.

Sorry, I put up the wrong chart.  Here's tokyopua's Tweezer Bottom and the breakout above 1.43.

Quote from: Melf Elf on June 15, 2006, 10:42:39 AM

The intervening high was 1.43, so confirmation that a short-term bottom is in is a print of 1.44.  GV printed exactly 1.44, so that's confirmation, and it puts Target: 1.53 IN PLAY.

The high on the day was 1.52..  The close was 1.48 on some "THANK YOU, I'LL TAKE THAT!" selling, but it's a start.  The close above 1.41 puts GV out of Harm's Way for the moment.

What I'd like to see, is for GV to go down tomorrow or next week, test 1.41 broken support, and hold it this time.

Quote from: Melf Elf on June 15, 2006, 05:11:43 PM
What I'd like to see, is for GV to go down tomorrow or next week, test 1.41 broken support, and hold it this time.

Friday's low was 1.42.. 

I know that it's disappointing for longs, but it's at least a moral victory of sorts, that 1.41 has held, so far.  That action keeps GV out of Harm's Way.  The downside target of $0.95 remains ON HOLD as long as GV trades above 1.41.

If Alien is reading this...

GV looks like a boxer who has had the the stuffings knocked out of him. 

It isn't advisable for him to go into the next round Monday, trying to throw any knock out punches.  He's very weak, and it would be much better for him just to try to stand in there, defend the blows, try to score a few points, and try to regain his strength for the remaining rounds.

GV got pummeled, and was down (below 1.41), but he wasn't down for the count (he got up, above 1.41).

He certainly scores a point or two for that kind of recovery.

Next round...

Melf Elf.

Man, that's perfect.   It really puts things in perspective.

Alien

just FYI:

Goldfield...Currents Flowing, Developments Growing
Monday , June 19, 2006 09:55 ET

Goldfield...Currents Flowing, Developments Growing

The Goldfield Corp (amex: GV) is a leading provider of electrical construction and maintenance services in the energy infrastructure industry in the southeastern U.S. The Company's electrical construction business includes the construction of transmission lines, distribution systems and substations and other electrical installation services for utility systems and industrial and specialty projects, including fiber optic cable installation. The Company is also involved in the development of high-end condominium projects on Florida's east coast.

The BULLS Say...

STORYLINE: Diversified Triple-Digit Growth, Oversold Vs. Peers. Goldfield is a tiny electrical utility construction company with a growing real estate development segment reporting its strongest quarters in a 100-yr history. Hurricane reconstruction and larger projects have tripled operating income and current backlog in its electrical construction segment. Overlapping condominium successes have its real estate development segment also tripling operating income and increasing backlog. Q1+Backlog has the stage set for record 2006 profits, yet the stock has fallen nearly -50% from the 20-year highs set in May-06. The sell-off appears sparked in part by some minor insider selling, but still, the stock trades at a near -70% discount to peers.

VALUATIONS: Sell-off has Goldfield @ 1/3 of Peers. Considering double-digit growth rates, record backlogs, improving margins and a new hurricane season on the way, it's surprising to see Goldfield's drastic pull-back from new 20-year highs. In most normal valuation measures, Goldfield is trading at a mere 1/3 of peers, possibly signaling +60% upside if the company continues to execute and the selling is over. Current P/E is 12.08 vs 56.85 peer average; P/EBITDA = 4.66 vs 12.78; P/Book = 1.64 vs 2.00.

CATALYSTS: Growing Revenues, Margins, Backlog and Hurricanes. Both segments are exhibiting strong growth. Electrical construction revenue nearly doubled in Q1 while operating income tripled. Current electrical backlog has also tripled to $21.7M. Real estate development revenue more than doubled as GV nears the end of its "Oak Park" condominium project and enters the first phases of its new "Pineapple House" project. Backlog for the real estate segment has increased +20% to $12.7M. GV expects $30.7M of this backlog to be recognized in 2006. Combined with Q1, FY-06 revenues should jump double-digits (vs 2005) to record levels. Considering how GV's margins are improving with increased revenue, profits may hit all-time highs as well.

METRICS: Hurricanes, Insiders, Development Plans and Backlog. 1) As evidenced in Goldfield's stock chart right after Katrina, traders see GV as a "hurricane play". Beware of this volatility as hurricanes approach Florida; 2) Insiders sold some 800,000 shares in May. Hope the sellers are done and the stock has found a new base in this $1.40-1.50 support area; 3) The "Oak Park" project is in its final stages and the "Pineapple House" is under construction. Phase 1 of the "Pineapple House" is to be completed in mid-2007 with most of those 33 units "pre-sold". Goldfield has approval to construct another 44 units at the location. Look for any announcement related to development schedules beyond Phase 1; 4) Q1-06 backlogs were at record levels. Take a look a backlog levels when GV reports Q2 in mid-August.

The BEARS Say...

NEAR-TERM RISKS: Technical Support Levels and Hurricanes. Goldfield's stock is currently trading at critical support levels after a near -50% pull-back from $2.84 (20+ year high). Continued selling, especially from insiders, could cause the stock to drift back into the "doldrums" ($0.50-1.00). Both segments are based in Florida and are subject to hurricanes. One segment would probably benefit from destruction, but a hurricane in Cape Canaveral ("Oak Park") or Melbourne ("Pineapple House") could hinder or destroy projects under construction.

LONG-TERM RISKS: Customer Dependence, Cycles and Bubbles. Goldfield's electrical construction business relies on just a few major customers and their spending is most likely cyclical. It's not clear whether Goldfield is at the beginning or near the end of a construction cycle. Oh...and when will the real estate bubble burst?

http://www.knobias.com/individual/public/news.htm?eid=3.1.bc6fd49473077908fe1378d4226f6e851a44cd9673fe9bcb6a68caca9a90fda8

Quote from: Melf Elf on June 18, 2006, 05:13:08 PM
[What I'd like to see, is for GV to go down tomorrow or next week, test 1.41 broken support, and hold it this time.

Monday's low was 1.41.. 

Quote from: alien41 on June 19, 2006, 12:22:13 AM
Melf Elf.

Alien,

GV took a couple of blows back to 1.41, but he stood in and defended himself there, and also scored for closing out Monday's round off only a penny, and near the high of the day.  Low volume, too, so not a lot of pummeling from his Bear opponent on that defense of 1.41.



What would be nice now is for GV to begin to capitalize on standing in at 1.41, and start to throw a few well-placed punches of his own this week, and close out Friday's round at 1.59, or better, for a Bullish Morning Star basis the weekly chart (next post).

Oliver,

Thanks for that interesting post, particular for presenting both cases.

Last week's candle was a Bullish Doji Star Hammer (the open and close were nearly identical, at 1.46 and 1.45).  It needs upside confirmation to be bullish.

A nice start would be a close this week at least half way through the prior week's black candle, which would be 1.59, or better.  We won't be picky...1.57...1.58 probably would be fine, too.



That 3-week pattern would form a Bullish Morning Star pattern, signifying a pretty good indication that a low is in.

Alternatively, if 1.41 doesn't hold, the 0.95 Target goes back IN PLAY, and if the recent low of 1.33 doensn't hold, GV likely will head down toward the target.  The Kumo (Cloud) also yawns below at 1.02 and 1.03.

Alien is in GV's corner, giving him a pep talk about standing firm at 1.41, and about throwing some nice punches.  At this point, even a couple of cheap shots would be acceptable, if not outright encouraged, as long as the ref isn't looking.

    

Next round...

Melf Elf,

GV, you gotta love this kid.   Down but not out.  Let's see if the fight is worth the price of admission.  

Alien

I am still not back in GV, or much of the rest of the market for that matter, but things keep looking up here little by little.  The Tweezer Bottom candlesticks from last week have not yet confirmed a *full reversal*, but they do seem to have done the job of signifying a change to a bit more neutral trend, which is often all you can expect from a candlestick reversal pattern.  There does seem to be a little bit of resistance at 1.52 currently, it hasnt been able to punch that out in 3 of the last 4 days. 

Agree with Melf Elf, there does look to be a weekly chart Bullish Morning Star here forming.  I do think though that some rising trend lines might interject to save any close down below $1.00, as well as a tiny little gap that formed in late March which should provide additional support at $1.04 if we are to believe Steve Nison :-)

Quote from: alien41 on June 20, 2006, 08:50:10 AM
Melf Elf,

GV, you gotta love this kid.   Down but not out.  Let's see if the fight is worth the price of admission.  

alien,

I'm growing very fond of this little pugilist.  He's showing some spunk here. 

Quote from: tokyopua on June 20, 2006, 04:31:03 PM
The Tweezer Bottom candlesticks from last week have not yet confirmed a *full reversal*, but they do seem to have done the job of signifying a change to a bit more neutral trend, which is often all you can expect from a candlestick reversal pattern. There does seem to be a little bit of resistance at 1.52 currently, it hasnt been able to punch that out in 3 of the last 4 days.

tokyopua,

That's a good description.  Applause.  The bleeding has stopped, at least for the moment.

Quote
Agree with Melf Elf, there does look to be a weekly chart Bullish Morning Star here forming. I do think though that some rising trend lines might interject to save any close down below $1.00, as well as a tiny little gap that formed in late March which should provide additional support at $1.04 if we are to believe Steve Nison :-)

Yes, GV has got a chance here, but he isn't favored to win this bout.  The more likely outcome is down toward $1.00, but if we get that Bullish Morning Star on the weekly, that could change.

On the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart, which represents "equlibrium...the table of balance," if we look to the left back in March, GV was ready to rock and roll to the upside. 

Currently, the "table of balance" favors the Bears:

1. The 8-Day Tenkan-Sen is below the 22-Day Kijun, so that's bearishly inverted, like moving averages.
2. Price has been below both of those.
3. The Kumo (Cloud) is overhead, as resistance, rather than below prices like in March, when it served as support.

Yesterday, price closed above the 8-day Tenkan-Sen (green line), so that's a step in the right direction.  Kind of "neutral," as you say.   But, there's a lot of work to do to get the green line (8-day) above the red line (22-day), and get price to close above both of those, then try to get through the Kumo (Cloud) resistance.

For those relatively new to technical analysis, this is what is meant by "A lot of technical damage has been done," and "the stock has some work to do, building a base."

GV is doing that now, holding above 1.41, which is good. 

The 22-day Kijun-Sen (red line) currently is 1.60, a penny above the 1.59 close that GV needs on Friday for the 3-week Bullish Morning Star pattern.  That's next resistance.

A "steady as she goes," base-building rally to that 1.59-1.60 area by Friday's closes would be good, technically.   That would get the faster 8-day Tenkan-sen (green line) moving up above the slower 22-day Kijun-Sen (red line) as it should be, very much like an MACD.

If GV tries to throw a knock-out punch here (sharp rally higher), I'm afraid that it would be reversed to the downside fairly quickly, unless it were something very good about the company, fundamentally.

Technically, the chart isn't ready for much more than a good rally at some point, then some backing and filling to get "in gear" for a more sustainable rally:  The 8-day back above the 22-day, and so on.

Next round... 

Quote

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GV: Short Interest UP 555.5% to 539.1K in Jun 2006
Wednesday, June 21, 2006 16:00 ET

According to new short interest data from AMEX, short interest for Goldfield Corporation, The (AMEX: GV) INCREASED 555.5% to 539,088 shares for the month ended mid-June, 2006.

SYMBOL               MAY            JUNE          CHANGE       %CHANGE    DAYS/COVER
--------   -------------   -------------   -------------  ------------  ----------
GV                82,247         539,088        +456,841      +555.45%           2

Based on GV's 20-day average daily share volume of 335,140, it would require approximately 2 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.

time for reentry?
TA looks much better now IMO!

cheers
Oliver

Quote from: Melf Elf on June 20, 2006, 05:56:59 AM
A nice start would be a close this week at least half way through the prior week's black candle, which would be 1.59, or better.  

That 3-week pattern would form a Bullish Morning Star pattern, signifying a pretty good indication that a low is in.

"The Hurricane Kid" has punched his way back to 1.59 in the middle of Friday's round.   It's a weekly Bullish Morning Star if he can stand in here.  Under 3 hours to the bell.

GO, KID!