3SOF

06/16/06
It's a job that's never started that takes the longest to finish – J.R.R. Tolkien, writer

The rally from yesterday did not continue and most of the gains from yesterday are gone with the wind – and then some.

I lost most of my lunch money (100 shares of ERS down 7%), but nothing to ruin my weekend or appetite.  My holdings are slim and light.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cq?d=v1&s=simc+gv+utk+brvo.ob+cup+ers+mea+mps+cib+hsr+med

CUP, the copper miner was up on good volume, bucking the down trend.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=cup

NVAX was up on reports of a possible bird-flu fatality.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=nvax

The market still needs some time to itself.  Let's leave it alone for a few days to get it together.

Have a happy Father's Day.  Two of my favorite movies to see this weekend which are available on video are "Big Fish" and "Family Man".

"Big Fish" is a movie that brings back many memories of my father – a funny and amazing movie that will touch your heart.

"Family Man" – helps me think about my role as a father and makes me see that despite all the hardships of fatherhood – the rewards are great.

Snowcat

Snowyn
Thanx for the response andsolid ground rules, I will incorporate them.  Looking at the 5yr chart of the .DJI there is something to the "June demise"... so is this shorting season for you?  Have you ever bought one of the short funds this time of year

My new question for you is how do you decide the quality from the speculative???  It seems that there are oodles of quality bio-pharms that are speculated to crazy prices.  Do you ever see quality in companies that have yet to turn a profit?

So where do you see HOM?  Stocklemon did their thing to that one?

GNBT and NVAX seem to be quality companies with products but have been hyped on the bird flew!

I will look for that book and keep reading your great posts.  I will try to be more disciplined with my stop sell orders.  (and a tidbit for you, I feel that NMKT is quality for the price with profit!!)
cheers Joe

Joet-

"Quality" companies are all based on my biased opinion.  And I am wrong many times.  I like companies with earnings, cash, low debt etc....

But a good company does not necessarily make a good stock.

I generally let IBD dictate what a quality stock is due to its ratings.  They are not perfect and are based on past performance, but I am too lazy to set my own criteria and theirs is widly accepted.

I rarely buy puts because I am awful at it.

I would stay away from HOM - it is a traders' stock.  I am sure there is money to be made somewhere there, but I would rather not be a bagholder.

NVAX may have some potential because they have existing products in the pipeline, but it is risky.  GNBT carries a lot of baggage.  If you look into the stock, there are questions if they have a true product or are just hopping on the bird flu train.

MIKR, AEHR and CUP are 3 companies that had a good Friday and look like they have something going on.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cq?d=v1&s=mikr+aehr+cup

NMHK.ob is a penny stock and is not for me

later

snowcat..

would like to hear from you on SWB (the gun maker).

PEG is 0.50, upped next year revenue and earnings guidance..earnings released on thursday AH was a blowout.

have a good fathers day! 

SWB is very strong in this weak market.  It may be due for a correction - but it has a great chart and excellent numbers.  Thanks for bringing it up.

I could see support at about 7.50.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=SWB&t=3m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

From the street:

Smith & Wesson (SWB:Amex - commentary - research - Cramer's Take) saw its shares rise after the Springfield, Mass., gunmaker topped Wall Street's fourth-quarter expectations.

For the quarter ended April 30, the company earned $4.2 million, or 10 cents a share, compared with $1.8 million, or 5 cents a share, a year ago. Revenue increased 44% to $51.9 million. Analysts were looking for a profit of 8 cents a share on $43.3 million in revenue.

For the full year, the company earned $8.7 million, or 22 cents a share, compared with $5.2 million, or 14 cents a share, last year. Sales increased 27% to $157.9 million.

Looking ahead, Smith & Wesson raised its sales expectations for fiscal 2007 to between $180 million and $186 million, a 14% to 18% increase. The company forecast earnings of 30 cents to 32 cents a share. The consensus estimates call for earnings of 31 cents a share on $181.6 million in revenue.

Everyone loves guns!  (except the people and animals killed or hurt by them and the people afraid of them)

06/19/06
GOVERNMENT IS THE GREAT FICTION, THROUGH WHICH EVERYBODY ENDEAVORS TO LIVE AT THE EXPENSE OF EVERYBODY ELSE. – Frederic Bastiat, French Economist

Same old, same old stock market.  No one was hurt because no one is buying and our portfolios are skeletons of what they once were.

Three in the portfolio are holding up pretty well:

Diet company MED is up 10% on good volume.

Infrared detection company, MIKR, is up 9% on strong volume.  This may be useful in helping maintain our border security.

Airplane parts maker, HSR and UTK also had slight gains on a rough day.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cq?d=v1&s=utk+med+hsr+mikr

If you are playing the market now, use only your coffee money.  Your portfolio should be positioned so any further downturns won't ruin your day.  We will get through this together and it will make us better traders.  Eugene

Subject:Italian Mother
>
>
> A young Italian man from New Jersey excitedly tells his mother he's
> fallen
> in love and that he is going to get married. He says, "Just for fun,
> Ma,
> I'm going to bring over 3 women and you try and guess which one I'm
> going to marry." The mother agrees.
> The next day, he brings three beautiful women into the house and sits
> them down on the couch and they chat for a while. He then says, "Okay,
> Ma, guess which one I'm going to marry."
> She immediately replies, "The one on the right."
> "That's amazing, Ma. You're right. How did you know?"
> The Italian mother replies, "I don't like her."

06/20/06
Giving money and power to government is like giving whiskey and car keys to teenage boys. – P.J. O'Rourke, Civil Libertarian

The Dow was up a bit on housing data but did not make me want to go out and shop.  I am waiting for the bargain basement to open – and that might not be for a while.  And what I have in storage is just sitting there waiting for the right opportunity (or any opportunity) to sell.

I had a friend who had a store that sold comic books and baseball cards.  He had some great looking old comic books on the wall, but they were priced way over market value.  Those comic books were up there for years.  He in a sense was not a comic dealer, but a comic museum.  You have to turn over your inventory with the goal of making money, if you do not; you become a collector, not a trader.  You know the type who is still hanging onto 10,000 shares of LU waiting for it to go back to $100.

Before you buy a stock, have in mind what you will sell it for – on both the upside and the downside.  Where will you bail out?  When the stock drops 15% drops off its high?  When the stock drops 2 boxes below the 10 day moving average?  When you are rich?  Have some realistic expectations in mind and do not believe in everyone's projections.

Run your stock portfolio like a business where you HAVE to make money and you will be more diligent and more successful.

Today, XTHL.ob moved to the Amex as XNL.  This is an ethanol producer that claims to be able to make the fuel from any organic substance – candy, wood chips, doggie doo, anything but Twinkies (Twinkies contain no organic matter).  I like this company and ethanol stocks were up on higher oil prices.  XNL was up 13% on good volume.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=xnl

But today, what is up 13% one day can easily be down the next – look at MIKR, UTK etc....

Here is an interesting report on my favorite hurricane stock, GV which I have a special place for in the Snowcat museum.

http://www.knobias.com/individual/public/news.htm?eid=3.1.bc6fd49473077908fe1378d4226f6e851a44cd9673fe9bcb6a68caca9a90fda8

Your reports are for collection LOL

Today's analysis and thoughts are a masterpiece 

Thank you for your good temper extended to all the board (applaud)

jorgegr

Quote from: jorgegr on June 20, 2006, 08:27:57 PM
Your reports are for collection LOL

Today's analysis and thoughts are a masterpiece 

Thank you for your good temper extended to all the board (applaud)

jorgegr

I second that.  Applause. 

The year will be collected in the "Snowcat Year End Super Spectacular".  It will have a glossy cover and pictures of my car.  I will skillfully edit out all of my trading errors.  It will cost $3.

I got a good DVD yesterday - if you like martial arts/superhero movies.  Silver Hawk starring the chick from Crouching Tiger - Hidden Dragon.  She plays a super hero, like Batman.  Not totally stupid with some good kung-fu action.

Some of my other favorites are "Hero" with Jet Li and "The One" with Jet Li.
If you liked "Braveheart" you will like "Hero"

Other stuff will appear in the "Snowcat's Hot Martial Arts Update" thread
On the "3 Karate Chops on Fire" site.

06/21/06
Foreign aid might be defined as a transfer of money from poor people in rich countries to rich people in poor countries. – Douglas Casey

Speaking of transferring money into the pockets of the needy, The Snowcat portfolio had a banner day today, thin as it is.

Airplane parts maker, HSR soared 15% to close near 15.  This time I hope it can hold – it would make the top 10 on the IBD 100.  It was pumped to over 15 a few weeks ago then dragged down unmercifully.  We will see what the plans are for this one.  I added more.
"But Eugene, the PE is almost 100!  And it is near its high!"  There are big expectations for this company – and I would not be surprised to see the price catch up as it did with HANS and TASR.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=hsr

MED, the diet company, looked fat today, up 14%.  It has been like a salmon this past week swimming against the current and up waterfalls.  This is a strong stock.  REMEMBER NTRI, now selling in the 50's.  Also, do not be afraid of a high PE.  I have been adding bits here and there all week.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=med

Infrared company, MIKR also rode the market, up 8%.  I like this one.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=mikr

In fact, most good stocks were up.  "When the wind blows, even the turkey's fly".

XNL had a good ethanol day again, riding the momo wave, up 6%
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=xnl

I bought a new issue which has been on my mind for a while (just lunch money, mind you).  If you remember ALN, the oil refiner that owns many 7-11's down south that did well, you might be interested in Israeli company, DK.  DK also has tons of gas stations and convenience stores in the south east US and they are growing like wildfire AND very profitable.  You want a LOW PE, this one is 7 and the forward pe is 10!
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=dk

CUP rose to enter the upward trend, this is a good sign.  The company is a big producer of copper.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=CUP&t=6m

It is good to write some good news for a change.  Tomorrow I may have to console you again.  This can always be a sucker's rally, so be cautious and careful.  I would like to see a follow-up day tomorrow with good gains on good volume b4 I start whipping out my checkbook.  Snowcat

What commission would you pay on sales and distribution rights for
say...two year exclusivity on certain world regions and weekly
updates of the "Snowcat Year End Super Spectacular"??

I think you should edit a DVD and e-mail versions, making some
publicity in 3SOF,  Discovery Channel and Animal Planet showing
a snowcat. 

FYI yesterday got in CUP again (didnt have the guts to do it earlier)
and fortunately sold XING at 11.36 but looked today to buy again
Maybe tomorrow will see  if it can hold at $9.50 or not

Ugly surprise with IVHG today, thought it would break 0.04 and run
upto 0.045 but their conference did'nt propel the PPS.

Brgds

jorgegr

 Here is some good info on PE ratios - What is better, big or small?

Stock Trading Education

Why Growth Stocks Usually Are Best
INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY - investors.com

Broadly speaking, there are two types of investors: growth-stock
investors and value investors. Often these two methods are pitted against
each other, with each represented as the best way to invest.

Q: What is the difference between growth and value investing?

O'Neil: Growth stock investors seek companies that show consistent
earnings and sales growth, usually 20% or more each year for the past three
or five years.

Companies such as Schering-Plough, Paychex, Cisco Systems and Microsoft
were growth stocks in the 1990s. The price-to-earnings ratios of growth
stocks are generally higher than those of the average stock, simply
because they have a record of better-than-normal earnings growth.

Typically, growth stocks have a high quality, repeat-type product or
service that generates superior profit margins and a return on equity of
at least 17% to 50%. In addition, consensus earnings estimates for
these stocks for the following year or two are also up a significant
amount.

Value investors, on the other hand, search for stocks they believe are
undervalued. These investors evaluate a company's balance sheet and
profit-and-loss statement, looking for signs of hidden value -- such as an
unusually large amount of cash in the company or property carried on
the books at cost, which is below the current market value, etc.

They are looking for a bargain and like to buy stocks with a low P-E
ratio or a low price-to-book value.

They look to buy a business franchise at a low price. Value investors
have to wait for the market to hopefully recognize their stock's value
for it to go up in price. This usually takes a longer amount of time,
and sometimes it doesn't happen at all.

Q: Buying stocks with low P-E ratios seems to be a common practice.
Aren't bargains good?

O'Neil: In general, the stock market is a free-auction marketplace
where most stocks sell at about the price they're actually worth at the
time. In other words, a stock with a P-E ratio of 10 is worth 10 times its
earnings, and a stock with a P-E ratio of 35 is worth 35 times its
earnings.

If and when the price or P-E ratio moves up or down, it is caused by
continued improvement or deterioration in earnings reports.

So it's really improper to say a stock is a bargain because its P-E is
low, and conversely it's improper to say a stock with a high P-E is
overpriced. You can't buy a Mercedes for a Chevrolet's price, nor can you
get Barry Bonds, baseball's home-run king, for the salary of a .200
hitter.

The moral: You get what you pay for. The best company in an industry
almost always sells at a much higher P-E than the also-rans in the group.

We built models of all the outstanding stocks during the 1990s --
stocks like Amgen, Cisco Systems, Microsoft, America Online, Ascend, EMC and
PeopleSoft. At the very beginning of their 500% to 1,000% advances,
their P-Es averaged 31 times earnings. And most of these leaders, on
average, expanded their P-Es to the low 70s as they had their huge price
increases.

A value investor would have missed every one of these absolutely
outstanding companies during their period of greatest performance. P-Es, in
my view, are misused, misunderstood and overstated as a stock selection
tool. Growth in earnings and sales is the fundamental cause behind
almost all price advances.

If you choose to invest in individual stocks and you're not a
professional investor, I firmly believe it is better for you to avoid the value
approach and learn to invest in the very best growth companies. Buy
corporations that lead their particular industries in sales, earnings,
profit margins, and return on equity. Buy companies that are gaining
market share on their competitors.

Q: Why growth stocks?

O'Neil: In all my years in the business, and knowing thousands of
investors, I have never known a nonprofessional who produced really
outstanding results using the value method. I know there have to be a few
people out there; I've just never met them. However, I do know dozens of
outstanding growth investors who have averaged 25% to 50% or more a year.

Now a money manager for William O'Neil & Co., Lee Freestone was up 271%
in 1998 and up over 100% for the first half of 1999. In 1991, at the
age of 25, he entered the U.S. Investing Championship with his own
personal account (real money, not play money) and was up 279%.

Of course, results like this come from dedicated people who really work
at it to get their exceptional returns. But it's nice to know what is
possible if you are willing to spend the time and really work at it.

While it's easy to cite isolated examples of value success, most people
are not Warren Buffett. People do not have his resources to thoroughly
dissect a company's financial condition and properly evaluate a
company's business franchise.

Q: What about mutual funds?

O'Neil: If you are a mutual fund investor, you can buy either a growth
fund or a value fund.

In the long run, as far as funds are concerned, it won't make much
difference, because the performance records are about the same. I've
analyzed funds for over 30 years and have found this to be true.

The value folks claim better performance based on the value record
since January 1973. It looks better because value funds are less volatile
and go down less in a bear market.

By beginning such a comparison at the start of the bear market in
1973-1974, value funds would naturally look better. However, if you start
the same comparison at the beginning of the bull market, say in 1975,
growth funds outperform value funds. Growth funds do better in up markets.

Some people prefer to own both a growth fund and a value fund in order
to feel more secure. Actually, I believe quality growth funds have
performed slightly better. It may be just as important to decide between a
large-cap growth fund (which owns big companies) and a small-cap growth
fund (whose stocks are less seasoned, more volatile and entail greater
risk).

The real key is to own a sound domestic growth stock fund (not an
industry or international fund). You should keep it forever. The real money
in funds is made through compounding -- letting the money build on
itself -- not by jumping in and out of funds trying to time market
conditions.

=============================================


Trader's Bookstore
http://www.invest-store.com/profittrading/currentspecial.html


Recommended books

"How to Make Money in Stocks."  by William O'neil

Bernard Baruch's autobiography, "My Own Story."

Reminiscences of a Stock Operator - The #1 All Time Classic
Item # : 2297969

The Disciplined Trader: Developing Winning Attitudes
Item # : 2121


12 Habitudes of Highly Successful Traders
Item # :17358

The Investor's Quotient:
Item # :11481

Techniques for Precisely Timing Major Market Moves
Item # : 3377588


=================================

Quote from: snowcat on June 21, 2006, 04:50:45 PM
MED, the diet company, looked fat today, up 14%.  It has been like a salmon this past week swimming against the current and up waterfalls.  This is a strong stock.  REMEMBER NTRI, now selling in the 50's.  Also, do not be afraid of a high PE.  I have been adding bits here and there all week.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=med

hey Snowy - StockLemon has MED on its radar now. I just went short. http://www.stocklemon.com/06_22_06.html

MED featured in Stocklemon - time to bail

June 22, 2006

Stocklemon Reports on Medifast

The Real "Skinny" on Medifast (AMEX:MED)

Medifast has become a darling of the market over the past 6 month, but it seems like investors should be looking beyond the headlines and get the real "skinny" on Medifast. It is the opinion of Stocklemon, that Medifast has become grossly overvalued as they have not returned as much money to shareholders as they have to insiders. Valuation On Monday of this week, Nestle announced their purchase of Jenny Craig for $600 million.