3SOF

I am back invested in GV 

 

GV: Short Interest UP 555.5% to 539.1K in Jun 2006
Wednesday, June 21, 2006 16:00 ET

According to new short interest data from AMEX, short interest for Goldfield Corporation, The (AMEX: GV) INCREASED 555.5% to 539,088 shares for the month ended mid-June, 2006.

SYMBOL               MAY            JUNE          CHANGE       %CHANGE    DAYS/COVER
--------   -------------   -------------   -------------  ------------  ----------
GV                82,247         539,088        +456,841      +555.45%           2

Based on GV's 20-day average daily share volume of 335,140, it would require approximately 2 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.

GV up almost 10%. no news. any thoughts?

Quote from: Melf Elf on June 20, 2006, 05:56:59 AM
A nice start would be a close this week at least half way through the prior week's black candle, which would be 1.59, or better.  We won't be picky...1.57...1.58 probably would be fine, too.

Last week's close was 1.57, "close enough" for the Bullish Morning Star on the weekly close.

Quote from: Melf Elf on June 21, 2006, 04:49:01 AM
A "steady as she goes," base-building rally to that 1.59-1.60 area by Friday's closes would be good, technically.   That would get the faster 8-day Tenkan-sen (green line) moving up above the slower 22-day Kijun-Sen (red line) as it should be, very much like an MACD.

Very nice "steady as she goes" action this week.  Up Monday...down Tuesday and Wednesday...up Thursday and Friday. 

The faster 8-day Tenkan-sen made a Bullish Cross of the 22-day Kijun-Sen yesterday, June 30, so that's gotten "in gear."  The Kumo (Cloud) is overhead resistance, at 1.8825 - 1.995 (I'll post that next).

Quote from: winner919 on June 30, 2006, 01:49:14 PM
GV up almost 10%. no news. any thoughts?

winner,

Players might be recognizng the nice job of base-building the "Kid GV" has done recently, although given the fact that we now know that  he turned 100 years-old this week, "Old Man GV" might be a more appropriate appellation.

 

Volume on Friday was better than half a million shares, which was good.  Volume on several days during this base-building period was well under one hundred thousand shares.

"Old Man GV" now has a chance of an Ascending Triangle breakout (pattern in purple), or an Inverse H&S breakout (pattern in green),  either of which would put the 2.30s or 2.40s IN PLAY, depending on the point of the breakout.

A little more pullback here would be nice.  "The bigger the base...the better the breakout."

Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart next...

The Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart shows "At a glance...the table of balance."

Generally speaking, if price is above the Kumo (Cloud), which is the vertical lines, the Bulls are in control.  Bears are in control below the Kumo (Cloud).

Remember a week ago, when the Kijun-sen at 1.60 was resistance?

This week, the Kijun-sen at 1.60 was good support.

Tuesday's low: 1.60.
Wednesday's low: 1.60.
Wednesday's close: 1.60
Thursday's open: 1.60
Thursday's low: 1.60

After establishing that strong support at 1.60 , GV moved up smartly on Thursday and Friday, and we can see that on Friday, June 30, the 8-day Tenksen-sen made a Bullish Cross of the 22-day Kijun-sen.  That's good.  It "suggests" a change in trend from Bearish to Bullish. 

Now we need to see GV get through the Kumo (Cloud), which is overhead resistance, at 1.8825-1.995.  Good base-building, like we're seeing, is helpful in getting through that resistance.

Next, I'll post the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart from early 2006, to show how GV was "in gear" for a rally.

Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart.  Early, 2006.

Melf:
Thank you very much for your wonderful analysis. Applaud

winner,

You're very welcome.

Quote from: Melf Elf on July 01, 2006, 06:35:45 AM
we can see that on Friday, June 30, the 8-day Tenksen-sen made a Bullish Cross of the 22-day Kijun-sen.  That's good.  It "suggests" a change in trend from Bearish to Bullish. 

Nice upside follow-thru on Monday, after the Bullish Cross.

QuoteNow we need to see GV get through the Kumo (Cloud), which is overhead resistance, at 1.8825 - 1.995.  Good base-building, like we're seeing, is helpful in getting through that resistance.

The close was 1.89, right at the bottom of the Kumo (Cloud) resistance.

Often, stocks have a difficult time ramming their way through that resistance on the first attempt.

The top of the Kumo (Cloud) has risen a hair, to 2.00.  The Descending Triangle breakdown was 2.09-2.10.  Although that wasn't a very large pattern, there was a lot of volume during that topping pattern.

So, 2.00-2.10 should offer some resistance.  I'd like to see a pullback, either here at the bottom of the Kumo (Cloud), or at the top of the Kumo (Cloud), at 2.00, then an assault on that resistance.

"The bigger the base...the better the breakout."

"Old Man GV" has done a good job lately.  So far, he's up 42% off that 1.33 low. 

Quote from: Melf Elf on July 04, 2006, 09:25:35 AM
I'd like to see a pullback, either here at the bottom of the Kumo (Cloud), or at the top of the Kumo (Cloud), at 2.00, then an assault on that resistance.

"The bigger the base...the better the breakout."

I very much like the fact that yesterday's pullback came from the bottom of the Kumo (Cloud).  That gives us a fairly flat neckline for a Bullish Inverse H&S breakout (pattern in green), or a flat top for a Bullish Ascending Triangle (pattern in purple).

For the Bullish Inverse H&S, the low of the Right Shoulder traditionally is higher than the low of the Left Shoulder, which was 1.41, so there's a lot of room between yesterday's close of 1.79 and that low of 1.41 to go down and form a Right Shoulder.   We also would like to see low volume in this Right Shoulder, indicating that while the stock is selling off, sellers are pretty much done, and that the stock is ready to move to higher ground.

We want to watch the ascending line of the Ascending Triangle (pattern in purple).  Thus far, there only are two data points on that trendline, so we don't know whether or not it's meaningful.  We can connect any two data points on a chart, but that doesn't necessarily mean that it's an important trendline. 

If we go down and tag that trendline, then bounce higher, that's called a trendline validation.  The market would be telling us that players are well-aware of the trendline, and that they aren't going to allow the stock to go below it.  Players, in that circumstance, view the trendline as support, and as a place to enter the stock long when that occurs.

NOTE: if it violates the trendline only nominally (by a half penny, or a penny), then the stock rallies, that's fine.  It's still a validation.  We can't require exactitude.

The slope of that trendline is +0.02286 per day.  Here are the data points for the next few sessions:

Thursday, July 6 - 1.696

Friday, July 7 - 1.719

Monday July 10 - 1.741

Possible Bullsih Technical Scenarios for "Old Man GV":

1. We knock out 1.87-1.90 resistance right now, on some bullish fundamental news...or news of hurricanes, etc.

That wouldn't be my preference.  I'd like to see more backing and filling to strengthen the chart.

2. We get the Ascending Triangle validation that I just described, then breakout.

3. We break the ascending line that I just described, but make a low just below it, then rally.  We'd have to do a trendline "redraw," but it still would be a valid Ascending Triangle breakout if GV takes out 1.87-1.90 resistance afterwards.

4. We get the Bullish Inverse H&S (pattern in green) with the low on this selloff somewhere above 1.41, which is the low of the Left Shoulder.

5. We double-bottom at/near 1.33, then go up and knock out 1.87-1.90 resistance.

In other words, the underdog, "Old Man GV," by rallying 42% off the 1.33 low, has given himself a lot of chances here, pattern-wise and technically, to have a nice upside breakout.

Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart coming up next...

In addition to being rejected at the bottom of the Kumo (Cloud), represented by the vertical lines, yesterday's candlestick was a Bearish Engulfing pattern, so both of those factors suggest further correction of the recent 42% rally.

The 8-day Tenkan-sen (green) and the 22-day Kijun-sen look like dots yesterday on the chart.  They're disconnected because of the holiday.

Remember all of those tags of 1.60 that we had last week, at the red Kijun-sen?  We can "see at a glance...the table of balance" (Ichimoku Kinko Hyo), that the stock was temporizing there, and finding support at 1.60 smack on the Kijun-sen (red) while the faster 8-dayTenkan-sen played catch-up, prior to the June 30 Bullish Cross (green line went above the red line).

The Kumo (Cloud) proved to be resistance this week, which we expected.  What would be very nice now, after seeing the 22-day Kijun-sen provide support last week, would be for the faster 8-day Tenkan-sen (green dot) to provide support on this selloff.  It's currently at 1.69, right near the ascendling line (purple) on the last chart, at 1.696.

It isn't necessary for that to occur, of course, for the outcome still to be bullish, but it would be nice to see that.  We've already seen the 22-day Kijun-sen (red) provide support last week, at 1.60.  Now let's see if the Tenkan-sen can provide support.

Melf Elf,

I love reading your analyses. You really help me to think hard about the technical behavior of a stock and it makes me realize just how little I know. When I first started reading your posts on 3SOF, most of the time I had no idea what you were talking about...I was clueless. Now I can at least follow along a bit.

Anyhow, thank you, and please keep it up. You're an invaluable asset to this board.

I don't know much about Tenkan-sens or Kijun-sens, but I do know Ichiro is hitting .350

Regarding GV, I see a cup and handle on the chart with an implied target of ~$2.20 on a breakout.

Quote from: wchankent on July 06, 2006, 04:57:14 PM
When I first started reading your posts on 3SOF, most of the time I had no idea what you were talking about...I was clueless. Now I can at least follow along a bit.

wchankent,

I greatly appreciate the feedback.  I sometimes wonder if the amounnt of detail that I post is way-y too much, or if it helps anyone to understand what's going on, technically.  Thank you.

Quote from: Lucas Scott on July 06, 2006, 05:47:29 PM
I don't know much about Tenkan-sens or Kijun-sens, but I do know Ichiro is hitting .350

Quote
Regarding GV, I see a cup and handle on the chart with an implied target of ~$2.20 on a breakout.

Luke,

That's another possibility.  I'm also thinking that GV might already have broken out above a Bullish Inverse H&S pattern (pattern in blue on the chart below), in which case 2.165  is IN PLAY, very near your 2.20.  (On the patterns that I posted yesterday, I get a target of 2.40-ish).

The neckline of this pattern has a steep, downward slope, but several things would seem to give it validity:

1. The volume looks right.  Heaviest in the Left Shoulder.  Next heaviest at the low.  Volume dried up in the small Right Shoulder on those tests of 1.60.  Good volume (for this stock) on the June 30 breakout.  Over half a million shares.

2. The faster 8-day Tenkan-sen made of Bullish Cross of the 22-day Kijun-sen on the breakout.

3. 34-55 RSIs also  had a Bullish Inverse H&S breakout on June 30. (I'll post that next)

In any case, GV is acting well here. 

Before I post the 34/55RSIs, I'll post the 13/21RSIs, which is where I start.  (We'll skip the sequential 21/34 RSIs).

13/21 RSIs: