3SOF

Well!

The lamp's lit in my head & this puppy is shaping up to complete an inverse head 'n shoulder's that measures a move to about $13!  ( that's more than 50% higher from here )

Go GIGM!

good trading to all.....

willey

  wow nice price action

I assume the drop in the early morning ha a lot to do with the online gaming debate in the US congress. Even if they do vote to ban it (which is so perverse anyway seeing as places like Las Vegas are BUILT on gambling) it wil have little effect on GIGM opportunity as they are focussed on China and Asia. So IMO this was a buying opportunity.
Anyway I added to my core position around $7.40, weekly and daily charts had nice convergence of support  (also middle of weekly bollinger bands, so usually safe entry on pullback). Can't post my charts due to PC issue right now unfortunately.
Good Trading

Quote from: Melf Elf on July 01, 2006, 07:32:51 AM

I'd like to see GIGM go up to 9.29-9.35, the June 5 high and the May 19 gap, then come down and put in a Right Shoulder of an Inverse H&S (pattern in green), then take off to the upside.

That would put something like 12.40 IN PLAY (depending on the point of the breakout).

Hey Melf,

how you been doing bud? my work's been killing me the last month or so, new position, new location, more challenges, thank god for the football world cup, kept me alive!

anyways, looks like you were spot on so far...the right side of the inverse H & S formed, and looks like it bottomed out at $7.30 (breakout level from when it fell to the 6's and tried to rise back up). close was excellent and I picked up a position today near the closing price of around $8.39 ave.

the neckine is around the $9.10 - 9.20 range and break of that should, in my view, put this back in motion to 52 week highs.

i'd appreciate ur thoughts at this time. also, the NASDAQ looks good for a comeback to around the 2180 - 2190 level atleast for the short term. (i see it forming the right side of a downward slanting inverted H & S; neckline around the 2175 area)

ciao! 

Quote from: vic666 on July 11, 2006, 06:05:58 PM
anyways, looks like you were spot on so far...the right side of the inverse H & S formed,

Vic,

We'd probably get an argument from the TA purists because the dip to 7.30 in the Right Shoulder was well below the low of the Left Shoulder, (even considering that we've got a down-sloping neckline), but otherwise, yesterday sure looked mighty nice.

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and looks like it bottomed out at $7.30 (breakout level from when it fell to the 6's and tried to rise back up).

Good observation.  That's justification, technically, for the overshoot on the downside, to 7.30.

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close was excellent and I picked up a position today near the closing price of around $8.39 ave.

Yes, that was a fine performance:

1. It's a Key Reversal.  A new low for the move, then a takeout and close above the prior day's high.

2. It's a Bullish Engulfing pattern.

3. It's an Erik Hadik 3-Close Reversal (he trademarked the 2-Close Reversal, but GIGM closed higher than the prior 3 days' closes). 

4. It's probably one of Mark Lebovitz's (spelling?) Volume Reversal days.  I forget his rules, but volume was higher than the prior day.

Nice action!

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the neckine is around the $9.10 - 9.20 range and break of that should, in my view, put this back in motion to 52 week highs.

The neckline is 9.29-9.13.  The slope is -0.008, so the neckline comes in today, July 12, at 9.074.  Naturally, we want to see both 9.13 and 9.29 get taken out to the upside.

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i'd appreciate ur thoughts at this time. also, the NASDAQ looks good for a comeback to around the 2180 - 2190 level atleast for the short term. (i see it forming the right side of a downward slanting inverted H & S; neckline around the 2175 area)

ciao! 

The NASDAQ better come back! 

See eliteG's post on the World Indices Board.  I'll also post a QQQQ update on that board.

Two more charts coming up next on GIGM: the MACD, and the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo.

MACD went back toward its signal line and back toward zero, then bounced higher yesterday.  That looks fine.

We can see from the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart ("At a glance...the table of balance") that after the nasty breakdown from the Bearish Rising Wedge/H&S Top (the was no Right Shoulder...see first chart above), GIGM sank well below the Kumo (Cloud), represented by the vertical lines.

"The table of balance" showed that the Bears were in control.

Often on the first rally attempt, stocks fail at the Kumo (Cloud), either at the bottom of it, the top of it, or somewhere in between, and often it depends on where traditional trendlines, moving averages, etc. are.

In the case of GIGM, we can "see at a glance" that it rallied to the top of the Kumo (Cloud), which is why I said on July 1 that I'd like to see a pullback to form a Right Shoulder.  Technically, the rally from 6.30 to 9.13 was "too much...too soon"  (45% rally), and it looked like it needed a pullback, to strengthen the chart.

Currently, the Kumo (Cloud) still is resistance, but the 8-day Tenkan-sen (solid green line) and the 22-day Kijun-sen (solid red line) are properly positioned.

The 22-day Kijun-sen is at 7.655.  It's "last support" since the Kumo (Cloud) and the 8-day Tenkan-sen are above it.

GIGM closed Monday at 7.68.  It opened yesterday at 7.63, tanked to 7.30, then reversed higher.  GIGM "rallied where it had to," or it would have gotten into trouble, technically.

An upside takeout of the 9.29-9.13 down-sloping neckline (solid blue line) also would put GIGM above the Kumo (Cloud), and the "table of balance" would favor the GIGM Bulls.

If Alien is reading this....

The Bearish Rising Wedge/H&S Top was formed over only two weeks.  Those guys up there are playing for the Bears (resistance).

This possible Bullish Inverse H&S has been forming over about 6½ weeks.  Those guys are playing for the Bulls.

Bulls are favored 3:1, in terms of "players on the field."  They better not wimp.   

bullish: 

InsiderCow.com: Various Insiders of GIGM purchased 38,000 shares
Wednesday, July 12, 2006 03:43 ET

Jul 12, 2006 (M2 PRESSWIRE via COMTEX) -- Reported by InsiderCow.com at 2:54 PM EST, July 11, 2006: Various Insiders of GigaMedia Limited (GIGM) purchased 38,000 shares of GIGM from the open market. GIGM rose 10.29% since the InsiderCow.com report.

Trade amount: 38,000 shares
Trade type: Open Market Buy
Trade price range: $7.68 - $8.00

Transaction details at http://www.insidercow.com/history/company.jsp?company=GIGM Get real-time alerts on any insider trading information from www.insidercow.com, one step before everybody else.

Melf Elf,

Thanks for the recap.   Have been on vacation in Canada and have not had an opportunity to do any trading.  Looking forward to getting back in the game.  GIGM is definitely a favorite of mine.

Alien

still holding aussie ?
brutal week IMO

Any reason for the sell-off?   Where is the next support?  Any recommendations?   I am interested in starting a position.   Thanks in advance.

Quote from: bmarc4211 on July 18, 2006, 01:56:44 PM
Any reason for the sell-off?   

bmarc,

I didn't see any news.

I suspect that it was technical selling.  MACD crossed below its signal line on Friday, July 14, then crossed back below zero on Monday, July 17 (I'll post that chart next).

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Where is the next support?

7.30 was important support.  That was the low of the big upside reversal day on July 11, when GIGM looked ready to go up and knock out 9.29-9.13 resistance (horizontal green line), and go higher.

GIGM took out the 7.30 low yesterday, as you know, went down to 6.89, then closed right at 7.30, so that could have been a Bear Trap fakeout to the downside. 

Players using "a close below 7.30" as their stop loss still are long the stock, but they had a nail-biting session yesterday.  A close below 7.30 would have entirely negated the bullishness of the July 11 candle (the big white one).

Meanwhile, GIGM has dug itself a hole, technically.  In addition to the MACD turning sour, we got a bearish cross in the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart yesterday (I'll show you that chart after the MACD)

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Any recommendations?   I am interested in starting a position.   Thanks in advance.

If you take a long position, I wouldn't tolerate much nonsense, especially in this lousy market environment.  The QQQQ downside target of 35.56 MADE yesterday (the low was 35.54), and it had a strong upside reversal into the close.  The NASDAQ also put in a Bullish Doji Star Hammer yesterday, so we "should" rally some here, and GIGM should participate.

Technically, though, GIGM needs to regain 7.95, which I'll explain in the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo post.  Good luck with your decision.

 

After that nice upside reversal candle on July 11, with MACD kicking higher, everything looked "good to go" for a breakout above 9.29-9.13 trendline resistance.

The subsequent price action and "double negative" in the MACD looks like a failure at this point, which is why GIGM needs to get going to the upside here.

The July 11 upside reversal ended the next session at the top of the Kumo (Cloud), and GIGM has been down since then.

Yesterday, the 8-day Tenkan-sen (solid green line) made a Bearish Cross below the 22-day Kijun-sen (solid red line).

They are at 7.72 and 7.95, respectively.  The bottom of the Kumo (Cloud) is at 7.92, which is why I said in the first post that GIGM needs to regain 7.95.

GIGM has gone from "poised for an upside breakout" on the nice July 11 upside reversal candle, to a 7.30 close, well below 7.72-7.95 resistance, "poised for a downside continuation."

Nice analysis Melf as usual. I am p ositioned in GIGM for a long term hold and I have shown various charts etc. Recent geo political (well middle east fighting) have trashed many a stock in the past days including GIGM (not totally trashed). Todays strength on the back of Bernacke statements was a nice rally for the markets, and maybe more to come.

Now GIGM is under accumulation right ntow by insiders and mainly Sansar Capital Partners. In recent weeks they have acquired (on various dips) 5.8M shares (another 280K on Monday) that's about 11% of the outstanding shares. SEC file if interested http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1105101/000136760206000004/xslF345X02/primary_doc.xml

That institutional accumulation tells me GIGM is a stock I want to accumulate myself.

Weekly chart shows nicely that GIGM is testing 2006 support (blue line)