3SOF

07/19/06
One hundred percent of the shots you don't take don't go in. – Wayne Gretzky, hockey player

The Fed chairman said that the economy is on the right track and that cause the market to rocket.  I guess he had to say something positive after his last meeting two weeks ago sparked a stock market avalanche!

The message boards lit up with "Rally Time" and "The Bear Market is over"!  Be careful.  The stock market is still in the doldrums, gas is still $3 + a gallon, a McDonald's "Happy Meal" is still $4, and fighting still goes on in the Middle East.

The economy might be on the right track if you have a high paying federal job like Bernanke, but to many, it is the same old, same old as two weeks ago.

Just about all of my favorites were up today, some without me.  A few stocks made nice moves on good volume and a few just rose with the tide.

When the wind blows, even the turkeys fly.

Airbus announced some big orders yesterday which may have helped HSR rise 6%.

Beverage Company, LBIX, was trying to get back into its big climb up +9%!
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=lbix&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p72207499998

Steel coating company, NGA was up 24% on nice volume and aluminum seller, ERS, which is working itself out of the Grande Canyon, was up 12%.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cq?d=v1&s=cib+ers+mikr+hsr+utk+simc+peix+nga+mwy+mikr+med+able+bbc

My hurricane favorite, GV, has been inching up on low volume as the first storm of the season was developing off the Florida coast.

Yahoo owners said Boo Hoo as the internet giant plunged 20% on huge volume and brought many of its friends with it.  It is a crummy bear market and you should not have been holding it – so do not tell me that "stuff happens"

I like to report nice gains on stocks I like, but let me wait for some more confirmation that this is not a bear trap (Market makers push prices up, get suckers to buy big, thinking the descent is over, then sell, leaving lots of bag holders).  In the mean time, I will grab a comfortable seat and wait until the market settles down.  When the time is right, I will try again – avoiding any stock that trades too thin.

We won't get fooled again! – The Who

Take care, Snowy

Howdie Snowy,
I would like to be as eloquent as your posts....  leave it to say that many of us out here truly appreciate your writing and candor.

I am wondering if you have a reason to favor GV over ADDL ??  ADDL was a favorite of mine last summer when it was still ZENX.  their fundamental numbers are VERY similar... this chart makes ADDl look like the bigger winner but that is only because it started at .18, since last October i see parallel charts.  Perhaps because ADDL is a BB stock and GV is listed?

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=1y&s=GV&l=on&z=m&q=c&p=m50&p=m200&p=v&a=r14&a=m26-12-9&c=addl.ob

I am trying not to get too excited about todays run, actually thinking about shorting some that bounced well...  but it is looking to me like it is time to get into one of these two hurricane plays.  GV is further down from its 52 wk high and closer to its 52 wk low than is ADDL  (how is that for TA  ) therefor i am leaning toward your choice of GV for more upside potential.  Thoughts?

Cheers Joe

 Joe,

I am not a fan of cheap stocks, but GV is a hundred year old company with earnings!  A pe of 10, if that matters.  They put up telephone poles when they are knocked down by the storms - how simple is that!  And they own real estate.

This is a value company - and though they have not reached GOOG proportions in the last 100 years, I do think that this will attract attention and can be up 25% by the end of the year.  I just bought a tiny amount at about #1.32

It has fallen past resistance and is worming its way up.  Right now, I would not be betting buy or sell.  The market sucks and you should sit back and plan your next move. 

ADDL is not a stock for me - if I have to work hard to find info on it, it is not investor friendly.  Trading is too thin and there in not even a Yahoo forum to pump the stock.

There are too many good stocks out there that I like to consider ADDL.

Snowy

Snowcat,

That's an interesting name. How did you come up with it?

I do enjoy reading your posts and quotable quotes and stock tips, etc.

Thanks for the invest-store.com site. they do have a lot of good resources - cheap too.

What do you think about AXR? When Mr. Market recommended I bought some and after it went down and the co announced 85C div, bought some more to average down.

Lalitha

Lalitha-

It snows a lot where I live.

I like AXR, but the volume is very low - you buy 10k shares and you bt 1/3 of the days ' trading.

Mr. Market is very smart and entertaining, but his timing stinks.  The stock dropped 12 pts from where he bought it.  Ouch.

You should have bailed at the 8% loss - or when it broke the trend line - or the 10 dma - or when it dropped on high volume.  It is important that you follow the sell rules.  Yesterday's rise may have been short covering.  You do not have to be in the market all the time.

Make your goal "not to lose money".

If I drop a ball from the roof of a 10 story building and you are watching from the 5th floor window, chances are that it will continue down.  And it takes very little effort to make a stock that trades 35k shares a day go down.  Volume is a key indicator - it tells how people are thinking.  Be careful.

I suggest you buy "How to Make Money in Stocks" by Wm O'Neil.  It is written in an uncomplicated manner and is a guide to investing. 

Regards,

Snowy

07/20/06
We made too many wrong mistakes – Yogi Berra

Yesterday's rise in prices was a fake, a bear trap, a lure, a short squeeze to get novice investors in and snare their money as the big, smart money sold out today.

TZOO followed in YHOO's footsteps with a $5 drop on descent earnings, but nothing is going to help in this environment.  Most stocks are going to follow the trend on the stock market, which is down.   

ISIG was up 18%, but everything else I see is down.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ISIG

A portfolio of puts would have been a good choice this week, and there is plenty out there to choose from.

Mr. Market's #1 pick this month, AXR hit below bottom as it dropped another 9% on 2x adv.  And this is from a professional who went to an Ivy League school, so what should I know?
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=axr

Tonight's homework is to look for stocks that will continue to fall......Internet? Human resources?   Energy?  Or should I just see what Cramer likes and do the opposite.

Either way, no buying until the storm clears.  Snowcat.

07/21/06
Chop your own wood and it will warm you twice. – Henry Ford

Do your own research and discover great stocks and it will enrich you twice.
Since we are neither trading nor spending time worrying about our investments going down further, it is a good time to look into ways to improve our investing.

Fibs, Candles, Giant Footsteps, Waves, Quantex – try different methods without risking money and see what works for you. 

I can see the Middle East situation erupting into a battle royale, not just with the Arabs and the Israelis, but between the Arab Sunni and Shiite factions.   This disruption in the world order will not be a short term positive on the stock market.  Bonds, CD's and dividend paying stocks are looking more attractive to stock traders who need a reprieve.

NFI continues to hold up in price with its 17% yield.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=NFI&t=6m

Have a great weekend and try to think like a bear for next week.  Let's look at Down as the new UP.  Snowcat.   

07/25/06
Don't worry about avoiding temptation.....as you grow older, it will avoid you. – Winston Churchill

Where have all the top notch stock pickers gone who were regulars on 3SOF.  Am I the only one who does not hide under his bed when the market takes a spill?  Where are the short picks?  Where are the put strategies?  I thought I was going to have someone hold my hand during the rough spots when I paid my way into 3SOF.  Now everyone has gone off to start a site of their own and I am the only stock picking authority left who I respect!  Geeezzz! Maybe I should start sending $50 a month to myself!

The market had a decent follow through day with some great earnings news sparking the action.  Oil field maintenance company, DXPE shot up 27% and many energy companies followed suit. – Even though oil prices fell!

Oil sands companies, CWPC.ob was up 19% and SOIGF.ob was up 14%

Ethanol company, ADM added 5% and "Solar film maker", XSNX.ob added to yesterday's huge gain, +10%.

Oil Company OMNI was up 6% to get over $10.

Tech companies got a big boost as SNDK added $6 to its price on good earnings!

NFI, the company with a 17% dividend rose to over $34 a share and NTRI lost a lot of weight in their investor's wallets, shedding 19% on good earnings!!

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cq?d=v1&s=cwpc.ob+inin+nfi+xsnx.ob+soigf.ob+adm+omni+dxpe+ntri

Folks  have asked how to get access to the InvestorInformationCenter lists, so here is the site – it is free and very informative.
http://maxpages.com/mrbreakout/Mr_Breakouts_FREE_RealTime

I am still playing armchair quaterback until I am confident I can find a way to make money.

Let's look forward to brighter days.  Snowy

Snowy please consider me one of your fans.
You expressed what I suppose  many have been chewing up.
I saw a few others say very politely  same idea.
I'm not concerned about the monthly investment, but are highly worried
because this was the greatest site I knew during 2005 and now many
good traders  trying to keep it alive. Have to do something to go back to
the original enthusiasm as well as TA excellent summaries.

At least this is MHO

jorgegr 

07/26/06
I never drink water because of the disgusting things that fish do in it. – WC Fields

More of the same with a few breakouts, but what is up today is down tomorrow.
Oil related stocks seemed to gain a bit today for some reason.  When oil prices were escalating with the Middle East War, the stocks were level or down last week.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cq?d=v1&s=able+dxpe+omni+simc

SIMC has a great move on good volume, but that bounces around like a rabbit and you have to have a lot of patience with it and take profits while you can.

Here is a good article from today's IBD on "Sell What You See, Not What You Think"
http://biz.yahoo.com/ibd/060725/corner.html

Basically, have sell rules and follow them, but read the article.

Soft drink Company, FIZ has one of the better charts and excellent numbers.  I would ordinarily say that this is IBD 100 material, but I will save the pixels!
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=FIZ

If you do still have stocks, watch out for upcoming earnings.  NTRI had some excellent earnings and it took a huge bath the past two days!  And ININ dropped 12% today on earnings that were up.  It is very hard to please some folks.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ININ

NGA fell at the open and battled back up 6% and TASR got Tasered, down 12% on 5x adv.  Here is a good article on what to do when a stock has good earnings then tanks:
http://www.fool.com/News/mft/2006/mft06072615.htm?source=eptyholnk303100&logvisit=y&npu=y

Stay Angry!  I am hooked on "Final Fu", a martial arts reality show on MTV2 at 7:30.  Check it out – they have Karate guys fighting Kung Fu guys and all sorts of fun.
It is hosted by Ernie Reyes Jr., a TaeKwonDo legend!  -Snowy

07/28/06
Aspire to inspire before you expire.

What if I told you that I had inside information that CKCM would report its Thirteenth Consecutive Quarter of Increased Revenue and Twelfth Straight Quarter of Profitability.   Sounds pretty good, so what happens? 

The stock fell bad.  If you think you can predict the movement of a stock based on increased revenue and profitability, you are kidding yourself.   To make money in stocks, sometimes you have to suspend your sense of logic.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=CKCM

When I was a kid, one of the biggest marketing successes was the 'Pet Rock'.  Yes, stupid as it sounds, it was a best seller – a rock in a box with care instructions.  The reason it was a winner was the clever way it was marketed and the media made it a must have.  They also sold houses, blankets and furniture for the rock.  This kept sales brisk and it is a classic example of people spending their hard earned money on worthless junk.   

We have some "Pet Rocks" today (though none as clever as the "Pet Rock"), "Heelies", the sneakers with the built in roller skate wheel, Video I pods (Come on, do we really need to watch a music video everywhere?), "Websters", toy creatures that you can buy and play with in an on-line world, and plenty of others that are so hot and new, I will not learn about them for months!

Now, there are stock versions of the "Pet Rock".  Companies that are virtually worthless but due to excessive promotion and demand, the price keeps going up.  The best example was during the Internet Bubble – whereby any company that had "dot com" in its name got immediately bid up in price.

But the key is to find the "Pet Stock" while it is still sitting in your garden.
To find these stocks, you have to look at the message boards, the pump sheets, the newsletters.  Look for convincing stories like "Revolutionary New Engine (RGUS)" or "More Oil than in Saudi Arabia (SYNM)" or"New Solar Film (XSNX)" or "Make Endless Energy out of Garbage (XNL)".  Look for the volume increasing, look for the message boards to explode with excitement, look to get in with money you can risk and look to get out b4 you find yourself stuck with a "Pet Stock".

Would a "Pet Rock" sell today?  If it was marketed right, sure, as P.T. Barnum said "There is a sucker born every minute".  If it is not marketed right, it is just a rock.

The Stock Market was a bit happier today in general, due to GDP growth, but some companies got hit with earnings news, good and bad.   

FORD, the cell phone case maker, missed earnings, they stink – but even if they had great earnings they might have crashed.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ford 

If you like the way EXXON does business, then this stock is for you: Ocwen Financial (OCN)   Look at this great chart.  They are a sub-prime lender.

So what if they are in hot water over predatory lending - refinancing loans at astronomical rates and quick to foreclose and put po' folks out in the street.  Look at the $$$$ they make! And look at that chart!  Up 5% near the hod!!

The Higher the interest rates, the more money they make!!!   And no broken knee caps!  Their primary competition is Tony Soprano.  The public be damned!

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=OCN

But look at THAT chart. 

Enjoy your weekend.  And relax, I got your back.  Snowy

07/31/06
Always try to keep the number of landings you make equal to the number of take offs you make. -  US Air Force Training Manual.

On Friday, Chevron made $4.6 Billion in profits for the 2nd quarter.  Not good enough for Wall St.  The stock went down.  This is a tough crowd.

Today the market was weak, but some stocks on the watch list showed promise.

Airplane parts maker, HSR was up 17% on good earnings – still well below at what I sold it at, but I still like the company.

Gas futures were up, which boosted ALJ OMNI and ALY

Copper will continue to be in demand as CUP made a move up.

I like that ININ made a good move up 12% on nice volume and AXR arose from its coma, +6%.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cq?d=v1&s=AXR+ININ+ALY+OMNI+CUP+ALJ+MEA+USEY

But let's see what tomorrow brings.    The Middle East is getting messier as terrorists who die without a uniform are called civilians and weapon batteries are hidden in schools and hospitals.  Kuwait voted to cut back oil production to preserve its holdings for the future (when prices are higher, I guess), and Iraq is still Iraq.

So keep an eye on the market, but watch more comedies and less news.  Snowy

08/01/06
My wife and I had words, but I didn't get to use mine. – Someone famous.

The market was down again on inflation fears, the Middle East crisis and rising gas prices.  So what else is new?  Anything that was up yesterday (ININ, NVEC etc....) was down today.

PSPT, an outsourcing company and a coolcat pick, was up yesterday and continued to rock and roll, up 24% on amazing volume.  The earnings were great, but profits disappear fast in this fickle market.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=pspt

NVEC which has a patent on a revolutionary nanotechnology breakthrough in data storage, jumped up big yesterday, but fell back to earth today.  The technology is fascinating and will have a major impact on our lives.  It is one to keep an eye on.
http://biz.yahoo.com/fool/060801/115445550216.html?.v=1

A few years ago, a film came out called "Supersize Me".  It is a documentary where for 30 days; Morgan Sperlock goes on a McDonald's only diet.  His weight balloons and his health deteriorate.  His doctor is amazed at his breakdown, his addiction to the food and how his blood pressure rises to a dangerous level.  Fascinating stuff and a great way to scare some sense into your kids (or yourself).
http://www.supersizeme.com/home.aspx

Sperlock has a show on FX called "30 Days", on at 10pm.  Since you are not watching 'Madd Money', you might as well watch this.  For a month, Morgan has someone living in someone else's shoes.  Last week, he had a border patrolling 'Minute Man' who arrests illegal aliens living with a family of the same to see what it is like.  He visited the family's relatives in Mexico (who they had not seen in years) to get an idea of the squalor and poverty they left – and how anybody living in those conditions would likely risk anything to escape that sort of life.  It is not preachy, but interesting to see how the other half lives, and if you check it out, you will become a fan.   It will definitely get you thinking and is great discussion material.
http://www.fxnetworks.com/shows/originals/30days/main.html

Take care, Snowcat.

08/02/06
It was so hot in Washington DC today that the President met with the NAACP just to get the cool reception – David Letterman

Earnings today were better, so the market was up a little.  Natural gas prices continue up as the heat wave in the east raises the demand for power.  It seems it is best to buy the ng stocks in the summer and sell them in the winter if last year was an indicator.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&s=NGAS&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=ngs

It was so hot in NY today that Mayor Bloomberg asked the Statue of Liberty to put her arm DOWN.

Hurricane Cliff is headed to Miami and those stocks are showing some gains.
GV was up 10% on light volume, but that has been up and down like a yo-yo and HSOA (formerly HOM) was up 12%.  I guess it still has a big fan base.  I still think GV will be back to 2 soon if we are patient.  If you track the Hurricane stocks, here is your list:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cq?d=v1&s=IPII+GV+NCS+ENG+HSOA+SGR+pdge.ob+rgmi.ob+wegi.ob+addl.ob+onsc.ob+chys.ob+nlst.pk

If you track the Hurricanes, here is your site:
http://www.storm2k.nhcwx.com/cgi-bin/hw3.cgi?config=&forecast=tropsystems&year=&region=NT&hwvstormid=3&alt=tropsystempage&hwvmetric=

It looks like some ping pong balls are headed towards the new leader of Cuba!  Welcome to office Comrade Castro's brother.

AXR was up a buck on poor volume, FIZ is approaching 17 and PSPT continued up after yesterday's breakout, up 4% and CIB is moving towards 30.

Stocklemon found something new to go after.  I think they made a mistake, because I do not own it.

Dear Reader,

Stocklemon has now proven that Fronthaul/Conversion Solutions (FHAL) is a COMPLETE FRAUD that is being played on the public. For anyone who wants a real good laugh, just listen to the unannounced conference call the CEO gave to the shareholders a few days ago and listen what a CEO who wants to go to jail sounds like.  The updated report is a must read for anyone who wants to see the blatant abuses that are occurring in the micro cap stock market.

For the full report go to www.stocklemon.com


This is the best joke of the day, stolen from Harry Newton.

Forget your wedding anniversary?

Ed was in trouble. He forgot his wedding anniversary. His wife was really MAD.

She told him "Tomorrow morning, I expect to find a gift in the driveway that goes from 0 to 200 in 6 seconds. AND IT BETTER BE THERE!"

The next morning Ed got up early and left for work. When his wife woke up, she looked out the window and sure enough there was a small box gift-wrapped in the middle of the driveway. Confused, the wife put on her robe and ran out to the driveway, and brought the box back in the house. She opened it and found a brand new bathroom scale.

Funeral services for Ed have been scheduled for Friday. His wife never did have a sense of humor.

Check out Harry's 'In Search of the Perfect Investment' site.  Always good investment and technology info and the best jokes:
http://www.technologyinvestor.com/

Keep cool out there.  Snowcat!

08/03/06
When an episode of 'Walker Texas Ranger' was aired in France, The French surrendered to Chuck Norris just to be on the safe side. – Top 100 Chuck Norris Facts

The market was up today as 'interest rate fears eased' they say.  I do not know who they interviewed, but they don't know 'jack'.  Or drive a gas powered car, for that matter.  Oil prices dropped a bit as it looks like the latest hurricane is not going to pummel the Gulf Coast.  The natural gas stocks and the hurricane stocks receded.

SBUX fell when their good earnings were not great.  It recovered somewhat on massive volume as the stock now hovers near 30.  I can see this as a maybe an October call option play. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ecn?s=SBUX

AXR is coming back, close to 40 – but the volume is still low.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=AXR&t=6m

Revolutionary tech company, NVEC is nearing its 52 week high, up 2%.  Read their story, it is likely that their product will change computers forever!
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=nvec

Predatory lender, OCN, was up another 6%!  The chart is a work of art.  Lawyers I know say that OCN mortgage brokers do not cast shadows.  But the chart is a work of art!
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ocn

Oil servicing company GLBL, a coolcat pick, was up 5% and looking good.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=GLBL

Thought of the day:

If Hezbollah and the Palestinians were to lay down their weapons today, there would be no more violence.

* If Israel were to lay down its weapons today, there would be no more Israel.

Tonight, watch 'It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia' at 10pm on FX, with Danny Devito.  It is light –hearted mindless entertainment, kind of like 'Seinfeld' on crack. 
http://www.fxnetworks.com/shows/originals/sunny/

Don't say I didn't warn you.  SHNOWCAT!!