3SOF

I'm Shorting back BRCD monday morning

wish me luck!! 

Shorting BRCD??  It just hit the 50DMA as i write at 6.07, resistance at 6.10..  short entry here I believe...   only on paper so far  Macd and RSI are still pointing up on daily and weekly charts, perhaps a chance to enter short in the 6.20's again...  but if it holds above the 50dma it could turn bullish again.  still has that strong resistance at 6.43
Melf, Terliso thoughts??

Quote from: joet on July 25, 2006, 10:13:42 AM
Melf, Terliso thoughts??

Joe,

It's not doing much of anything.  The bottom of the channel (blue) was penetrated, but it held on a closing basis, and BRCD rallied from there at Monday's open, to 6.10 today, as you mentioned.  That's near the top of the Kumo (Cloud), which I'll show you next.

The top of the Kumo (Cloud) is at 6.085.  BRCD rallied to 6.10 today and got stopped there.  It's now at 5.90. 

The 8 (green) and 22-day (red) are inverted.  It still can rally and get those in gear, but it's range-bound, as it has been for awhile.

Howdie folks

Snowy there are still quality folks here!!

Melf, thanx for your input, i am assuming that you are continuing to watch BRCD and may take a position when it breaks out of its current range?  Terliso did you go short yesterday? 

Melf, from your charts it looks like the range is trending down, but you also show the convergence of a penant/flag possibly forming.  It seems to me that the 50dma has been resistance in July and could provide a nice short entry if it tests it again in the next 2 sessions.  I realize that this does not meet your criteria of "breaking the range or trend" but do you ever trade the range, seems like a short with a 20-30 cent target would be a decent trade these days?  In your experience is it safer to wait and look for larger potential when trends are broken?

I am still short on AAPL at 60, wish that i had not covered my NTRI short before earnings, but no chart would have told me that the CEO was going to resign today!!

Any good short picks out there for you?
Terliso i am still watching XSMR, nice pick, i never sold any, just on paper.
Good evening to all
cheers joe

Quote from: joet on July 25, 2006, 05:36:34 PM
I realize that this does not meet your criteria of "breaking the range or trend" but do you ever trade the range, seems like a short with a 20-30 cent target would be a decent trade these days?  In your experience is it safer to wait and look for larger potential when trends are broken?

Joe,

Not necessarily. 

I traded the Rectangle breakout in June (little pattern in purple) on a print of 6.21.  The breakout put a target of 6.37 IN PLAY, which MADE on the rally to the high of 6.40, and there also was a DOUBLE breakout on that two-day rally, of both the channel (in green), and of what a the time, was an Ascending Triangle (the pattern in blue).

So, it was a TRIPLE upside breakout, and the trade looked very good as BRCD rallied to 6.40 on June 22.   Nope.  Immediate fizzle (false breakout), on a Bearish Inverted Hangman, and I got out of the trade for a paltry gain of a penny a share.

No "sure thing" in trading, is there?  Sometimes range trading works.  Sometimes breakouts work. 

BRCD closed yesterday at the top of the channel (pattern in green), but I don't view that as anything particularly meaningful.  There have been a lot of intraday penetrations of the top of the channel.  The stock also is about smack in the middle of the blue channel.

Neutral, at this point.

The 8-day Tenkan-sen is at 5.805.  Yesterday's low was 5.81. 

The top of the Kumo (Cloud) is at 6.805.  Yesterday's high was 6.08.

BRCD looks like it doesn't want to give up the ghost, and looks "stuck in the range."

The 8-day Tenksen-sen and 22-day Kijun-sen still are bearishly postioned (inverted), but BRCD closed above the green channel (on yesterday's chart), closed above its 50DMA, and the weekly MACD histogram is ticking higher this week, so far.

Quote from: Melf Elf on July 25, 2006, 02:57:29 PM
The top of the Kumo (Cloud) is at 6.085.  BRCD rallied to 6.10 today and got stopped there.  It's now at 5.90. 

The 8 (green) and 22-day (red) are inverted.  It still can rally and get those in gear, but it's range-bound, as it has been for awhile.

Joe,

I wanted to buy BRCD right there, but I was stymied by the channels that I had in place.

Last night, I realized that if I got rid of the channels, connected the January high of 7.10 to the April high of 6.40, NOT the May high of 6.75 as I had done, there were SEVEN hits to that trendline, prior to the break print of 6.11, a penny above that 6.10 July 25 high, which was right at the top of the Kumo (Cloud), ready to head higher.

SEVEN hits to a trendline is usual.  It's clearly resistance, so a breakout above it should be meaningful.  It was.  BRCD is back to the June high of 6.40, and took it out this morning (the high was 6.45), busting some stops.

Notice also that all of the candles after the breakout are above the 50DMA (dotted green line).  Weekly MACD histogram also ticked higher last week when BRCD banged off the bottom of the Symmetrical Triangle. 

Nice little 5% gain, buying the 6.11 breakout, but I didn't see it until it was too late.

Where's that Crying Face on the toolbar?  Oh, there-e it is... > >     

Howdie Melf,
if you are still bullish on BRCD you may get another chance to enter at 6.1  if i had plyed my short this AM at 6.4 i would be covering now for a short term 3%.  6.40-6.50 is proving to be some strong resistance for BRCD so when that breaks i may go long, or if we re-test support around 5.60-5.70..

Do you still see the channel trend here?  Cheers Joe

I shorted BRCD a couple days ago at 6.14 I believe chances are high of a break of 6.00 again. My plan is to cover at 5.80-6.01

Joe,

There hasn't been strong conviction from Bulls or Bears.  Both have blown opportunities. 

I mainly wanted to point out the Symmetrical Triangle breakout, which would have helped me to play the 5% short-term rally. 

If I had seen the breakout at 6.11 and played it, I would have sold ½ into 9.40 resistance with a stop below 9.00 on the remainder.  9.00 was the July 28 low after the breakout, and it was a penny above the 50 DMA. 

Yes, the up trendling channel still could be a factor.   

By the way, earnings are coming up in the next two weeks.  Don't know the date.  Last year was August 18.

BRCD is down 15%

Covered at 5.16-5.17  .

Wow dropped all the way to 5.00

---- Bad drop for BRCD breaking all mid-term support
---- Next stop @ support around $4.50
---- There is also a gap below $4
---- BRCD price is now around 50sma weekly scale, a break of that moving average indicates the price could go lower...time will tell.

Second chart from June 12, 2006 post

Good trade nullzero (applause)
See, A little bit of patience always pays off