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Considering the makert is near the top of the range its been trading. It is more then likely the market will turn south today or next week at some point. Giving a good shot at shorting and profiting. Was wondering what you guys have been looking at for some short plays. Hopefully this thread can generate some screaming shorts I will try to add what shorts I am considering or going into as well. Let the shorting began 

So far AAPL and PHM are most recent short picks.

Shorted LYO today at 22.42 aiming for a 2-5% gain.

Shorted CTCI earlier today at 24.38 avg covered at 23.17 for a +5% profit.

Dow looks like its near its top.

Morning Nulzero

Keep up the good posts..

BIDU  thinking about shorting...  It broke support at 75.91 that had held since the last earnings gap up, on yesterdays gap down.. thoughts..

cheers Joe

Thanks joe

I dont think BIDU is a screaming short since its already been smacked down big. Look for some stocks that have gained big momentum today that will likely go down alot if the market changes. Take a look at the HBs there all good shorts today DHI, PHM, and CTX all look good take your pick . AAPL still looks good if the market turns its in for some trouble. BRCD looks like an easy short for 5% gain, short BRCD now good chance to get 5.80s to 5.90s next week.

Shorted 1k BRCD at 6.14 just a min ago.

Check out DECK for a short on monday. It went up 16% on friday from earnings news. It closed at strong resistance and is sitting very close to the 52wk high. High chance DECK is going to retrace some back, espically if the market doesnt head up next week. I think DECK looks like a good short if the resistance holds strong. On another note DECK's short intrest was 25% of the float, this is what can probley be explained for the sharp rise in PPS. DECK just had a major short squeeze if the bull power isnt there to suport new 52wk highs and break of resistance it may be a screaming short to get a fast gain of 5-10%. I believe most shorts have gotten squeeze out and already covered on DECK. The bull power may slow down soon and this DECK may break once again.

Quote from: nullzero on July 29, 2006, 09:19:11 PM
Check out DECK for a short on monday. It went up 16% on friday from earnings news.

nullz,

I've been thinking this weekend, looking at some of these charts after earnings, that we're missing the boat not looking at these charts BEFORE earnings come out, to see if/where we would want to take a position, long or short, after we see the market's response to earnings.

In the case of DECK, for example, if we had looked at it ahead of Friday's earnings release, would we have seen any opportunity, long or short?

Yep. 

DECK had put in a "W"-Bottom, at 33.74 and 33.36.  (Interestingly, those two lows both were in a gap area from the April, 2005 big gap down).

The middle of the "W" was 39.06, so we would have known ahead of earnings that a print of 39.07 was a "W"-bottom breakout.

Thursday, the day ahead of earnings, the high on the day was 39.00, then the stock sold off, all the way down to  37.14 into the close.  Obviously, there was some nervousness about holding long ahead of earnings, and probably some shorting just below the 39.05...39.06...39.04 early July highs (resistance). 

We wouldn't have been in Harm's Way, holding long prior to earnings, but we would have been prepared to buy a print of 39.07 after the release of earnings.

Friday morning,  DECK opened at 38.885, just below the 39.07 breakout number.  The low on the day was 39.50.  I'd have to look at an intraday chart, but I would imagine that low got printed shortly after the open, then the 39.07 breakout got printed.

Mentally, it would have been difficult (at least for me) to buy the 39.07 print because, at that point, the stock already was up $1.93 from Thursday's 37.14 close, and I generally don't like to chase a stock that is up that much on the day, but let's think about that.   It was a breakout, and it only was seven cents above Thursday's high of 39.00, where longs got nervous, and mistakenly sold.

Actually, a print of 39.01 on Friday, a penny above Thursday's 39.00 high, was a pretty good indication of,  "Oops...we goofed selling the stock off like we did on Thursday."

Buying DECK at 39.07, already up 1.93 on the day, I wouldn't have expected much more rally on Friday, but what a nice surprise if we had bought it, seeing it close at 43.31!

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On another note DECK's short intrest was 25% of the float, this is what can probley be explained for the sharp rise in PPS.  DECK just had a major short squeeze...

Well, okay then, maybe not so surprising.    

The rally was fueled by a lot of short-covering as well as additional buying from breakout players.  That short interest also would have been a nice bit of information, ahead of earnings.

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The bull power may slow down soon and this DECK may break once again.

Interestingly, this "W"-Bottom measures a target of 44.76 IN PLAY, a penny above the April 44.75 hgih, if you use the Right Leg low of 33.36 to measure:

37.06 - 33.36 = 5.70 Points + 37.06 = Target: 44.76 IN PLAY

In general, we don't want to short stocks like DECK, that are looking strong.  "Short weakness, not strength."  But, if DECK ralliies to a possible Double Top in the target zone, and starts looking weak off the intraday chart, or has a downside takeout of a Bearish Hangman on the daily chart, a short with a low-risk stop above the high wouldn't be a bad play at all.

Meanwhile...if DECK pulls back, say 50% of Friday's candle, which would be about 41.17, or 61.8% to 40.53, which is very near the June 7 high of 40.63, I'd consider a long position in it for a ride to the 44.38-44.76 target zone that is IN PLAY.

The 44.38 target, by the way, is the measurement from the Left Leg of the W-Bottom:

39.06 - 33.74 = 5.32 Points + 39.06 = Target: 44.38 IN PLAY

Yeah I know what your talking about melf. Its depressing to miss all these good long plays, my bearish outlook is one of the causes im not taking the chance and going long on alot of plays. I have also been wary of holding any position through earnings, uncertain what the market will do to the stock. (exception with PHM, I knew that stock was going to have bad earnings.) I think my approach has been take your position long or short after earnings are released and try to ride the stock with the tide of the market. DECK would of been a great example of taking a position long right after earnings. With DECK's case I wouldnt short it unless it meets the overhead resistance and is rejected on high volume and sell off. The market direction would also need to be on the side of the trade.

DECK is down little over -2% so far its looking good on the short side. However I didnt take a position in DECK this morning.

New short that im looking at is NGPS a short emailing letter shorted it today. The chart looks like its due for a pullback short interest is at about 5% of the float it has declined recently which would lead me to believe that any further short squeeze is slim to none. Will post a chart of NGPS later.

Quote from: nullzero on July 30, 2006, 06:49:38 PM
Yeah I know what your talking about melf. Its depressing to miss all these good long plays, my bearish outlook is one of the causes im not taking the chance and going long on alot of plays

nullz,

Nothing wrong with having a bearish outlook.  The market has been bearish, and you're trying to follow the trend.  What we don't want to do, is get stuck in a bullish or bearish outlook when the market is telling us something different. 

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I have also been wary of holding any position through earnings, uncertain what the market will do to the stock.

With good justification.  It's not a bad idea to protect yourself against an exteme move against you at earnings.

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I think my approach has been take your position long or short after earnings are released and try to ride the stock with the tide of the market. DECK would of been a great example of taking a position long right after earnings

Yeah, especially when we had good reason for taking a postion, with that pattern breakout play in DECK.  Otherwise, there's no need to force taking a position in a stock. 

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With DECK's case I wouldnt short it unless it meets the overhead resistance and is rejected on high volume and sell off.

Right. 

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The market direction would also need to be on the side of the trade.

It sure helps to trade with the market, but some stocks are bullish in a bear market, and the reverse.  All depends on the individual chart.

Quote from: nullzero on July 31, 2006, 12:04:05 PM
DECK is down little over -2% so far its looking good on the short side. However I didnt take a position in DECK this morning.

I've been watching DECK this morning, too.  Even though it's down some, I think you were wise to leave it alone with that upside target that is IN PLAY.  After Friday's big rally, a pullback here is to be expected,  but Friday was a strong day, and DECK could be right back in our faces on a rally to the target if we had shorted it. 

Im keeping my eyes on NGPS for a short sell entry possibly soon. The chart shows that NGPS is extremely overbought in the short term with its RSI sitting at 78. NGPS ran on news from good earnings which triggered a short squeeze. NGPS looks like a good short play with a hold between 1 day and 2 weeks. I will keep a closer watch if it advances more or makes a move for the downside. Cover target would be in the 39.00s with a profit target between 5-10%.

Covered LYO today for a 1% profit.

Still holding onto PHM which is turning more bearish by the day (currently up over 5% on PHM... plan to hold and cover between 5-15%)

Here is a chart of PHM... Just broke through 50dma heading down. RSI is heading down below 50. MACD is heading to negative territory. PHM is currently sitting very close to strong support at 28.38. A strong move down through this support would break the back of the stock once again and put 26.00s or lower as a possible target.

Intresting enough DECK pulled back to 40.78 today. Today would of been a good day to cover deck with a 4-5% profit. NGPS is pulling back as well down 3.77% right now. PHM down about -2% today.

Quote from: nullzero on August 01, 2006, 11:08:36 AM
Intresting enough DECK pulled back to 40.78 today.

nullz,

Yeah, I thought it might hit the 40.53-40.63 support area.  Close, but no cigar. 

Quote from: Melf Elf on July 30, 2006, 06:32:43 AM
[Meanwhile...if DECK pulls back, say 50% of Friday's candle, which would be about 41.17, or 61.8% to 40.53, which is very near the June 7 high of 40.63, I'd consider a long position in it for a ride to the 44.38-44.76 target zone that is IN PLAY.

Howdie all
shorting the health and organic food industry??  I have been watching WFMI since its last split ($75's) but never did pull the trigger...  thoughts here?  Big gap down, Melf will say shorting into the Hole... but the MRVL hole was pretty deep    seems like a down trend is well established on WFMI so a short may be good for another 3-6% at least?? (Melf are there conditions that you do short into the hole?)  How about the short side of OATS?
Any others out there?
Cheers Joe