3SOF

Quote from: nullzero on July 27, 2006, 02:08:52 PM
Time to short AAPL!  Im waiting for it to get back upto 64 dollars to short. I just got a short alert from short-stocks.com they shorted at 64.45. AAPL has been up for 10 days in a row in this shitty market that makes it a great short.

nullz,

Anywhere in that 64.35 - 65.41 resistance area (even a little lower) that I outlined to Joe this morning is a low risk short, with a reasonable cover above there.

I placed an order before the open to short 65.39, right at the top of resistance, figuring that it might have enough momo to get there..  Didn't get it.  The high only was 65.02.

Good luck if you play it.

I did play it first $5k at 63.21, second $5k possibly later in the day depending where it goes. AAPL is an excellent short  .

Shorted second half 63.23 so im averaged about 63.22. Market turns AAPL is going to be in the house of pain  .

Quote from: nullzero on July 27, 2006, 03:40:28 PM
Shorted second half 63.23 so im averaged about 63.22. Market turns AAPL is going to be in the house of pain  .

Nullz,

Oooo-ooo...the Bear Market has turned you mean.   

You better call Cramer tonight and tell him house of pain.  He gave it the BOOYAH yesterday, saying, "See ya at $80."  Actually, he didn't say that.

He screamed it. 

I'm going to hold out for $65.24 - $65.45, if I can get it.  That's the Top of the Kumo and the 200DMA, respectively. The 200 is rising a little each day. 

For you and Joe, though, I hope I don't get it, and that it heads for the house of pain.

 

Good luck with the trade!

Im currently short AAPL, PHM, BAB, VNO. Positioned those shorts last 3 days, the market looks like its due for a nasty pullback.

AAPL put in a little "W"-bottom yesterday (drawn below the chart).  At today's open, the middle of the "W" (63.35) got taken out to the upside, putting 63.84 IN PLAY.  That MADE in the first five minutes of trading (high was 63.98).

Next resistance is 64.24 - 64.29 (horizontal line near the top of the chart), which could be the neckline of a Bullish Inverse H&S.  If that's the case, the low of the Left Shoulder is 63.80, which shouldn't get taken out.

A breakout above the 64.24 - 64.29 neckline would put the mid-65s IN PLAY.

Quote from: Melf Elf on July 28, 2006, 10:50:17 AM
A breakout above the 64.24 - 64.29 neckline would put the mid-65s IN PLAY.

The Bullish Inverse H&S broke out.  The mid-65s are IN PLAY as long as AAPL trades above the neckline.

AAPL rallying with market. Whats up with this market we should be down very soon if not next week. Is there anyone here who still thinks we are in a bull market  Market is hitting resistance now. Perfect time to load up on shorts for the ride down. Im not covering anytime soon on AAPL short until I am up at least +3% on the trade.

Yesterday's 65.02 high has been taken out to the upside on the stremgth of today's Bullish Inverse H&S breakout.

Quote from: Melf Elf on July 27, 2006, 06:58:41 AM
Make that 64.35 -65.41 resistance:

1. 64.35 - was the April 17 low of the Right Shoulder that got broken to the downside

2. 64.61 - today's data point on the down trendline (blue line) off the January high

3. 65.28 - the top of the Kumo (Cloud) EDIT: SORRY, IT'S AT 65.245.

4. 65.41 - the 200DMA (rising slightly each day)

Just printed 65.24, the top of the Kumo (Cloud).  The 200 DMA looks to be at about 65.50.  It's rising slightly each day.

Yooo Melf
it hit 65.5  are you with us short on AAPL?? I have not covered, still think that it is over bought and the bullish day in the Market has surprised me... to bad my small-cap loaded portfolio has not seen the lift of the tide!

Feelings for August overall?  You sure can nail the numbers...  thinking about shorting KOMG but will watch on monday

Cheers
Joe

Quote from: joet on July 28, 2006, 03:43:12 PM
Yooo Melf
it hit 65.5  are you with us short on AAPL?? I have not covered, still think that it is over bought and the bullish day in the Market has surprised me... to bad my small-cap loaded portfolio has not seen the lift of the tide!

I just shorted AAPL at 65.66. 

Quote from: Melf Elf on July 28, 2006, 11:14:13 AM
[The Bullish Inverse H&S broke out. The mid-65s are IN PLAY as long as AAPL trades above the neckline.

As near as I can calculate, the Inverse H&S measured to 65.62-65.72 (mid-65s), so I'm short here.

Quote
Feelings for August overall?

I'm lousy at predicting anything, Joe.  I just try to follow along with the patterns, etc.

Im underwater on AAPL trade about 3.5% but I know how fast that can change if the market takes a huge dump. Im going to put in a somewhere between a 7-10% STOP just incase which I doubt it will ever be triggered. Next week is setting up for the week of the bears.

Hello Melf and Nulz,  wondering if you have a stop limit in your heads to the up side if AAPL continues bullish...

Melf, looking at your posted chart from July 27, wondering what the significance of the light green slightly sloping downward trend line indicates?  Is this the next resistance if it breaks up again?  Looks like you connected points from 72.89 high and the 72.05 high but did not include the next high at 73.80?

I am curious where you will stop out the trade if you are willing to share.  I sure appreciate your fabulous posts.  I will be watching AAPL, BRCD and SPIR as work allows tommorrow.

Also any thoughts on HSOA  (the new HOM)  they have earnings in mid August and i do not understand the current sell off, in the middle of huricane season, they just switched to the Nasdaq and included in an index...  seems cheep now, but trending down hard...  I am in from 7.50 and trying to get more strict on my stops, but this sell of is on low volume and seems to be bucking fundamentals... not a fan of averaging down until the trend reverses but thinkging about it... thoughts if anyone has the time..

Cheers Joe

Quote from: joet on July 31, 2006, 03:34:51 AM
Hello Melf and Nulz,  wondering if you have a stop limit in your heads to the up side if AAPL continues bullish...

Joe,

I've got a gain in AAPL of about 7% on three trades since the spring, so that's all that I'm willing to put at risk.  I worked hard for the money...sooo hard for the money...that AAPL better treat me right.



My short of AAPL was predicated on the fact that it has had a parabolic rally through all four levels of resistance that we've discussed, and the fact that the Inverse H&S target basis the intraday chart MADE near the close on Friday.  AAPL "should be" exhausted from banging its way through all of that resistance, but it sure isn't showing any weakness, closing near its high of the day on Friday.

I'm what's known as a "weak-handed short" on this trade, meaning that the Bulls won't have to try very hard to get me to cover my postiion.  Even though the 50 (dotted green line) and 200 (dotted red line) DMAs are bearishly positioned, AAPL:

1.  Closed last week back above the Right Shoulder (the purple horizontal line, at 64.35) of the Bullish Inverse H&S (green circles) that got broken to the downside

2. Closed above the down trendline (blue) off the January, 2006 high

3. Closed five cents above its 200 DMA

"Short weakness, not strength."  AAPL has been acting strong, and if doesn't show signs of weakness for fairly short order, I'll cover.  I'm concerned that AAPL might selloff to 64.35 (purple horizontal line) and back-test the down trendline breakout (blue line) at about 64.28, then continue to rally, back toward the old neckline.

Quote
Melf, looking at your posted chart from July 27, wondering what the significance of the light green slightly sloping downward trend line indicates?

That's the old neckline to which I just referred.

Quote
Is this the next resistance if it breaks up again?

Everything between here and that neckline is "some" resistance because this price area is where both the Left and Right Shoulders formed during the late winter and early spring.  Some of those longs, who held all the way down to the 50.16 low will be glad of an opportunity to get out of their long position at a break even, and they will sell.

It's difficult to determine how much selling they'll do, particularly because they've gotten a lot of encouragement to stay long with the good earnings, the strong rally, the MER and UBS upgrades, and the Cramer "See ya at $80" BOOYAH.

The NAZ 100 is sitting at NDX 1510, smack on the neckline of the broken one-year H&S Top.  This re-test of the broken neckline "should" fail.  If it doesn't fail, and the NAZ 100 rallies back inside the pattern, that would be a positive for AAPL, which most likely will participate on the upside, so that would be more encouragement for the longs to hold their positions.

Quote
Looks like you connected points from 72.89 high and the 72.05 high

Yes, that was the neckline of the Bullish Inverse H&S pattern, that ended up NOT being bullish.

Quote
but did not include the next high at 73.80?

No, because it wouldn't serve any purpose to move the trendline, and connect the January high of 72.89 to that 73.80 high. 

AAPL clearly had broken out above that green trendline, and also had taken out the January high.  If we moved the trendline, we would miss the fact that AAPL also clearly had a Bull Trap/False Breakout (Bull Trap means that it trapped bulls into thinking that the breakout was bullish, when it wasn't). 

As you remember, I almost was one of those Bulls who got trapped.  I planned to use the low of the Right Shoulder (64.35) as my stop, but I exited my long postion the morning of May 15 when the NDX broken critical 1633-1634 support (see my last two posts at the bottom of page 2 this thread).

Quote
I am curious where you will stop out the trade if you are willing to share.

I'm just as curious as you are because I have to wing it a bit here, and get a feel for the action.  The only thing that I can tell you right now is that I'm definitely not going to risk more than my 7% gain. 

Quote
I sure appreciate your fabulous posts.  I will be watching AAPL, BRCD and SPIR as work allows tommorrow.

Thank you, Joe, and you're very welcome.  I'm sorry that I don't have more time to answer all of your questions, but it takes me a long time to type all of this stuff out.

Quote
Also any thoughts on HSOA  (the new HOM)  they have earnings in mid August and i do not understand the current sell off, in the middle of huricane season, they just switched to the Nasdaq and included in an index...  seems cheep now, but trending down hard...  I am in from 7.50 and trying to get more strict on my stops, but this sell of is on low volume and seems to be bucking fundamentals... not a fan of averaging down until the trend reverses but thinkging about it... thoughts if anyone has the time..

I haven't looked at the HSOA chart in awhile, but I'll give you a general comment.  Don't expect things to move "in lock step," so to speak.  For example, it the price of oil rallies (as it has), don't expect that all oil-related stocks will rally with it.  If gold rallies, that doesn't mean a rally in all gold stocks (that dog, GSS comes to mind).  I sold GSS nearly a year ago at 3.07, I think.  Gold has rallied.  GSS is at only 3.11 today. 

Same with earnings.  I think that I posted about that in the STX folder last summer.  STX price earnings ratio was very high in November, 2004.  STX broke out of a Bullish Inverse H&S and had a beautiful 50% rally.

In the summer of 2005, STX had a very low price earnings ratio.  It fell about 40%.