3SOF

Here's to AAPL plummeting today 

I Think it is time now to short AAPL, histogram begin to tick down & there is huge gap to fill below

AAPL just started dropping some more. The pace seems to be picking up on the sell side.

The Ascending Triangle breakout puts Target: 71.32 IN PLAY, as long as AAPL trades above 68.63.

The highs of the Ascending Triangle were 68.63 and 68.68.  I always use the more conservative number (68.63, in this case) to derive targets.

Math:

High: 68.63
Low: 65.94

68.63 - 65.94 = 2.69 Points + 68.63 = Target: 71.32 IN PLAY

AAPL is kicking my ass , im about to cover soon for a loss.

I went short at 19.35 this am but I am not feeling very confident.  When are you covering Nullzero?

I changed plan to hold onto the short. I made the same mistake with HANS a while back i put a 7% loss stop on HANS and shorted HANS at 180 got stopped out... Look where HANS is now . Im going to HOLD AAPL for a mid term short based on AAPL being extremely overbought... PE way to high in a market like this. Also for the likelyhood of a decrease in the fundamental outlook. I think AAPL will give in big time with a simply downgrade just like HANS did today. I also think the market is ripe for a nasty fall the next few weeks.

After successfully re-testing the top of the Ascending Triangle breakout (68.63-68.68), APPL broke out of a Bullish Falling Wedge, and tagged $70.    It's currently at 69.75

AAPL kicking my ass still . I would of put a tight stop and entered later to short. It may take  a few weeks for gravity to kick in and for the chance of a profit off AAPL trade. The momentum in AAPL reminds me of HANS and TIE... at some point this stock is going to fall back to a more reasonable PPS.

Quote from: nullzero on August 03, 2006, 03:09:31 PM
AAPL kicking my ass still .

Sorry about that, nullz, dang it!

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I would of put a tight stop and entered later to short.

Applause for recognizing that mistake.  It's important, not only to recognize our mistakes, but to "Go in peace, and resolve to sin no more!" 

When we shorted AAPL, we were playing against a very strong fundamentally driven, short-squeezing trend.  That's fine, if we have reason to think that we're near a top, like ZMH, but with a tight stop, as you say.

My reason for shorting AAPL at 65.66 was that AAPL "should have been" exhausted after getting through those four levels of resistance, and my 65.62-65.72 target had MADE.

Bank of America upgrade or no, AAPL showed continued strength on the gap up the next day.  My reason for shorting was blown sky high.  LITERALLY. 

We must try to recognize as quickly as possible when we're on the wrong side of a trade, and get out of it.  No one likes to take losses, but we also don't want to sit and allow our losses to mount.   

Don't take it personally.  Don't view yourself as "wrong."  The trade went wrong. Take the small hit, and move on to the next winning trade.

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It may take  a few weeks for gravity to kick in and for the chance of a profit off AAPL trade. The momentum in AAPL reminds me of HANS and TIE... at some point this stock is going to fall back to a more reasonable PPS.

I hope that happens for you, but here are some of the problems with that:

1. You're "handcuffed" on that position while you wait and "hope" that gravity takes over.

2. AAPL might not pull back much at all.  The analysts could be right about the $80 target (and higher), and it "could" consolidate there, and go higher still.

3. If it sells off, where would you sell?  Do you expect a break even?  Would you settle for a loss that is half of what you have on paper now?  Those questions tend to drive us nuts.  If AAPL sells off to, say $67, then rallies to $80, we want to kick ourselves for not covering at a smaller loss, at $67.

"Hanging on and hoping" is a tough position to be in.  I've been there many, many times, which is why I try to cut it loose as quickly as possible when a trade goes against me, or when I think it's about to go against me.

"Winning trades are profitable from the start." (paraphrased)

Not always.  Sometimes, the stock continues to consolidate for awhile, then it's profitable.

Maybe that maxim should be: "Winning trades don't get IN YOUR FACE from the start." 

AAPL was IN OUR FACES right from the start. 

Anyway, just some T2T thoughts, and sharing my experiences.  Good luck, nullz!

Geez, Cramer just pumped AAPL on "Stop Trading" while I was typing.  Thanks a lot, huh?

Thanks melf for your insight. Its good to hear feedback from veterans out there and learn along the way.

Melf Thanx for your words of wisdom, learning and trying to head them, still holding some AAPL short but tride to average in at 67 and covered quickly at 68 that day...  I will be crying at 80 but the time frame looks like whatever is going to happen will be in the next few months... and maybe it is good for my funds to be tied up so that i have to practice more on paper !!!   always learning.  Have you seen many leave a break-away gap like this for long term?  (i guess the other gaps on AAPL are good examples)

We should probably make a ZMH thread, but where do you see the 65.30 figure, was that an after hours close?  Do you count after hours and shadows when  evaluating Gaps?  I show ZMH closed at 65.57 yesterday, and todays high was 65.29...  I was thinking that closing the gap would be good for a short position since that would leave it technically free to continue down...  missed your # by a penny... So after todays action are you bull or Bear on ZMH.  I have a stop set at 66.58.

Cheers Joe

Quote from: joet on August 03, 2006, 05:45:39 PM
  Have you seen many leave a break-away gap like this for long term?  (i guess the other gaps on AAPL are good examples)

Joe,

Right, the three examples that I gave you the other day haven't yet been filled. 

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We should probably make a ZMH thread, but where do you see the 65.30 figure, was that an after hours close?  Do you count after hours and shadows when  evaluating Gaps?

Yes, all of the different folders are a "management prroblem," but I can't think of a solution that I can offer.

I didn't see the after hours 65.30 figure, but that's a penny above today's attempt to rescue the "Abandoned Baby," at yesterday's 65.30 low, if it's valid.

No, I don't consider after hours trading at all.

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I show ZMH closed at 65.57 yesterday, and todays high was 65.29...  I was thinking that closing the gap would be good for a short position since that would leave it technically free to continue down...  missed your # by a penny

That's a good read  Applause.  If that isn't what's going on, we need to cover our short posiiton. 

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So after todays action are you bull or Bear on ZMH. 

Bear.

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I have a stop set at 66.58.

I'm very-y proud of you!  Right or wrong, I'm going to cover a bit above yesterday's high, also.  I don't like to get "jiggled out of a position" by a penny or two, like yesterday's high, which was about two cents above the recent high (Bull Trap).

But, I won't stay much above your stop.  A few pennies, maybe, which is nothing in this price range.

I'm very-y-y-y proud of you, Joe! 

Quote from: nullzero on August 03, 2006, 04:04:08 PM
Thanks melf for your insight. Its good to hear feedback from veterans out there and learn along the way.

nullz,

You're more than welcome.  It's a treat to have this 3SOF sight, where we all can share our victories, and our disappointments.

Much good luck to you!

I agree it was on strong uptrend until options news came out today.  Seems like there are some serious flaws.

AAPL is down close to 7% in AH!!

Where do you see it heading, Null,Melf?

What is a better trade to make?  I strongly believe in the fundamentals and growth prospects of the company, but am not sure if I should buy it on drops, or be on the short side until it settles around 60 again(if at all)??

Oh snap. Couldn't be happier about that AH  I doubled down my short today at 69.45.

Yes, some insight at this point would be greatly appreciated.