3SOF

I was surprised that I couldn't find a thread on TIVO here, but have had it on my watch list for a while having missed the last run.

TIVO just broke out of a large symmetric triangle on very solid volume today, after news was released today that their lawsuit against Echostar, who make DVRs for the DISH network, was successful, ordering Echostar to stop making infringing DVRs and pay $74m:

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/060818/sff024.html?.v=61

It gapped up big this morning and has subsequently pulled back quite a bit, but looks ripe for entry, and hopefully this should provide for some strong momentum in the near term.

Technically, the sym triangle gives a target of between $9.50 and $10.  Short term I would like to see it get back above 7.40.  The 6.75 level should provide reasonable support and I will take a move below this as a stop level.  I'm in at 6.95.

This is indeed in breakout mode, nice volume.

In at $7.04........curious how the two will end up settling (royalities etc) and for how much and WHO else for that matter.......

Talk about having echostar by the balll$.............LOL

Reasonable close in the end - glad it held above $7.  Let's see what next week brings...

Worth keeping an eye on this one - earnings are out on 30th August:
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/060818/sff001.html?.v=56

Not sure whether lawsuit payment will be included in earnings, but if they are it should make for some nice numbers.  Have been pretty burned this earnings season (held MOVI over earnings - ugh!!!) so not sure if I will hang on to this one, will see how things go next week. 

TIVO looks good, I think it's safer than MOVI

....and Ibotez thought I'm nuts for picking (short) MOVI, I hope he/she gets out before the earnings has released.
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=5935.0


TIVO Bouncing off from 2 years trendline & price above moving averages (weekly scale)

Ohhhh.. we got white candle looks like a brekaway gap now. IMO

Yep, nice little intraday break of an ascending triangle, and she looks to be running - will be interesting to see whether it falls back at 7.38-7.40 level.  (Edit, just got beat down at 7.39)  AT target measures to 7.74.

This will holding, any news and its off and running. Hopefully we'll get some soon.........

Nice move for TIVO today on the news that they are partnering with Cox Communications to rollout TIVO services to their subscribers in 2007 - I believe this is the second such announcement released recently (the other was with BellSouth).

TIVO gapped to 7.44 and then rallied all the way up to 7.80.  Has been pulling back since, but I am looking for 7.40 resistance to now become support.

Earnings are next wednesday, so am looking to sell before then.

Strong move into the close for TIVO - 7.40 support held and we had a late day rally up to 7.68.  Volume picked up again today , nothing like the 20m day at the end of last week, but bodes well.  Looking for continuation of strength tomorrow, and possible news about their petition to uphold injunction against DISH.  Today's high = 7.80 = next resistance.  Let's see if she can crack it!!!

Nice, good close

Nice move for TIVO today again, got right above the recent high of 7.80, but I sold just now at 7.77, on the break of that 7.80 support - bit of a desending triangle on the intraday and it could also turn into a spinning top on the daily.  I am away next week, so I'll take my 11% gain and move on for now.  Could be a downside fake-out, but I'm happy with it for now.

Might well be worth a look-in after earnings next wednesday.

Will leave a chart (and the intraday for reference).

TIVO reported after the bell last night and while they reported a loss of $6.45M or .07/sh, this was much less than the .14c/sh analysts were expecting.  AP and all the other newswires put out headlines like "TiVo Loss Balloons on Legal Costs", however those legal costs will be recouped and more from their Echostar trial win.

Haighlights can be read here:
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060830/earns_tivo.html?.v=6

I was concerned that TIVO would get killed on earnings but it looks pretty strong today, and
I think it has a strong chance of breakoing $8 So I'm back into my position - more than happy to pay a little bit extra to take my shares out over earnings.

TIVO has continued to act well in recent days, holding above 7.80 support and building what looks to be a sharp ascending channel.  However, after the close today we got news that they will issue an offering of 8.26M shares. No details were supplied about the date or the offer price.

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/060905/sftu107.html?.v=67

So far the share price has held up okay, only losing 4% from close to about 7.87 AH.  However, I really don't like unexpected dilution like this, and expect TIVO to take a short term hit.  I may sell first thing and look to re-enter around 7.40, as overall I am still bullish on TIVO.

BUSINESS SUMMARY   

TiVo, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides technology and services for digital video recorders (DVRs). The company offers a subscription-based television service that enables consumers to record, watch, and control television. This service also offers the television industry a platform for advertisers, content delivery, and audience research. It distributes the TiVo service through agreements with television service providers; consumer electronics retailers; and Web site, Web forums, email, and telephone support. As of January 31, 2006, the company had approximately 4.4 million subscriptions to the TiVo service. TiVo was co-founded by Michael Ramsay and Jim Barton in 1997. The company is headquartered in Alviso, California

I see terlisio you are eying more shorts as of late... Did you change your outlook on the market? Think its time for a fall... BTW I like your TIVO short.