3SOF

Quote from: joet on September 06, 2006, 03:04:35 AM
Melf You are up late tonight! 

joe,

Actually, I'm up early, doing my homework.   

Quote
I am looking forward to the fall season of trading, hopefully we get a little more volume to spice things up.  Since the big gap up i have been on the wrong side of AAPL 3 times !!  Leaning the hard way.

It ain't easy, my friend.  I could have played AAPL much, much better than I have played it, which I invariably find to be the case, with the advantage of hindsight.

For example, I watched it re-test the Bullish Falling Wedge breakout (pattern in blue) on August 10 and August 11.  The high of August 11, which was the second day of the re-test, was 64.13, so a print the next day of 64.14, a penny above it, was the "buy pivot."

Next session, Monday, August 14, AAPL printed the 64.14 and I thought about buying it, but I didn't like the Parabolic Rally off the $50 low, and I also didn't trust the stock after the false Inverse H&S breakout in the Spring.  You will remember our discussions about that.  I definitely had a bearish bias, despite my efforts to avoid biases.  We all have them. 

So, I didn't buy it.

The stop would have been 62.57, a penny below the August 11 low, so the risk was a loss of only 2.45%.  The reward, if AAPL went back to 70.00, which it did yesterday, was 9.14%.

Risk:reward ratio: 3.68.  Very decent, and it was a trade with the trend : a successful re-test of a Bullish Falling Wedge breakout, so the trade is favored to win.

Duh-h-h....     

Trading really is incredibly simple when we do it with benefit of hindsight, isn't it? 

Awhile back, Snowcat (Snowy) posted something from Investors' Daily, I think, the gist of which was, "Trade what you SEE....not what you THINK."

Another one of those market cliches, but there's a reason that cliches become cliches: there often is a lot of truth in them.   

If we had put aside the fact that this is a chart of APPL, and put aside any notions that we had about the company and looked strictly at the Bullish Falling Wedge breakout, and the successful re-test of it on August 10 and August 11, it would have been pretty hard NOT to trade it long there, if we really think about it, huh?

Trading with the trend...good risk/reward...technicals, like weekly MACD, looked real good...

It's good for us to review things in this way, Joe.  "If we don't learn from our mistakes, we're destined to repeat them."

Quote
i really appreciate those that post their trade ideas before the trade.  I have been trying to do that when i feel i find a good one.

Yes, I greatly appreciate that, too.   

nullz,

Sold APPL at 70.54 on the break of this morning's low, and the break of the neckline of the H&S Top. 

Hmmm, I am way late to this party, and maybe crazy, but I bought in today at 72.62.  Not looking at the technicals besides a very bullish intraday chart, and the expectation of the big announcements next week about the new ipods, etc.

Cramer just was on STOP TRADING and said, "I'd like buy AAPL every day of the week, and twice on Sunday, if they'd open the market!"

I think that was RE-RE- BOOYAH.   

MELF you cover this one yet?(70.54)  I am still short a small pos from $68 and thnking we will see a "sell the news" this week.  We do like the cliches 

the chart is looking darn strong however, should have played this one on paper... how come my paper trades work out so much better than my money trades    the ones on paper have been gut, quick chart reads, while the money ones have been more researched...  perhaps my research does not pay... I may go with the gut and go long on GROW and VLO on monday.  check them out, one momentum on huge volume and VLO way oversold rebound play

I was out in the hills wed-fri last week, felt good to be away from the machines.
Happy weekend to ya
Cheers joe

Quote from: joet on September 10, 2006, 03:08:12 AM
MELF you cover this one yet?(70.54)

Hey, joe!

That was a sale of my long position.  I bought the re-test of the Tuesday's Symmetrical Triangle breakout, which occurred at 68.634 (additional analyis of that is back on page 10):

Quote from: Melf Elf on September 05, 2006, 02:21:28 PM

Quote from: nullzero on September 05, 2006, 01:59:10 PM
Nice eye Melf on AAPL. Im on the wrong side of the trade on this one. BTW did you play AAPL today on the long side?

nullz,

Yes, after the gap up breakout opening, I put in an order at the gap/breakout. 

I tried to re-enter long after the little H&S Top played out, but the downside target didn't make, so I didn't get filled. 

"Targets against the trend are less likely to get MADE."  It didn't. 

Quote
I may go with the gut and go long on GROW and VLO on monday.   

In addition to making its first "lower high and lower low" in 4 years on the break below 55.19, VLO seems to be suffering a bit from "The Cramer Effect."  Again on Friday afternoon's STOP TRADING, he said sell VLO and, believe it or not, he also said again to buy AAPL.

I think that's a RE-RE-RE-BOOYAH on AAPL.   

Cramer must have done a 'mon back in his personal portfolio. 

sept 12 I believe is the expo for AAPL... May see a similar sell off like what happened after the keynote if expectations are not met.

Gotta give AAPL its due.  Despite the parabolic rally, the gap that never was filled, adversity on the news front, the Symmetrical Triangle target of 76.05 MADE at 11:19 AM this morning.

Quote from: Melf Elf on September 21, 2006, 11:24:55 AM
the Symmetrical Triangle target of 76.05 MADE at 11:19 AM this morning.

Today's high was right there, at 76.06.

Believe me, that doesn't always happen, but it surprises me when targets get MADE, or trendlines get hit, within a few pennies like that, especially in this high price range. 

While we can't expect precision from technical analysis, it's nice to see it sometimes.   

Melf,
Any take on AAPL here?  Ready to test its high?  Or do you expect a strong resistance, and possibly a correction?  Whats your take?

Quote from: xtetic on September 27, 2006, 05:31:35 PM
Melf,
Any take on AAPL here?  Ready to test its high?

xtetic,

Longer term, that's what's IN PLAY from the July 28 Falling Wedge break (pattern in blue), and even higher, if you add the height of the pattern to the breakout.

Quote
Or do you expect a strong resistance,

Actually, between today's price and the 2006 high, there only were about nine days worth of trading leading into and coming away from the Bearish Island Reversal back in January.  That isn't much resistance at all.

Quote
and possibly a correction?  Whats your take?

Don't talk to me about a correction.  I couldn't even get a lousy $2 correction to re-enter my long position back in early September. 

A correction certainly is in order after this strong two month rally, especially with the 76.05 target MADE, but that target now has been exceeded on the upside, and this stock has been a monster, so no telling. 

It could race to $80 near-term on the strength of a Cramer RE-RE-RE BOOYAH alone, if he decides to pump it again! 

Time-wise, if the 86.40 target is going to get MADE, I would expect that to occur no later than Valentine's Day, 2007.

Good luck if you own it!

Analyst sentiment may reflect a short term pull-back...

Apple shares may reflect too much cell phone optimism

By Slash Lane
Published: 11:45 AM EST, 9/27/06
American Technology Research this week said it has removed Apple Computer from its "Focus List" out of concern that investors may have baked too much cell phone optimism into the company's current share price.


"Since we added Apple about three weeks ago in conjunction with our proprietary analysis of Apple's significant technical progress in its cell phone efforts, shares have appreciated 15 percent versus 3 percent in the NASDAQ," analyst Shaw Wu told clients on Wednesday. 

"While we remain long-term positive, we believe Apple shares may reflect too much near-term cell phone optimism."

In a research note, Wu said he would not be surprised to see a near-term pullback in the iPod maker's share price but said he would be an aggressive buyer at levels high-$60 to low-$70 range. 

The analyst also offered an update on Microsoft's digital media player strategy, saying his checks indicate the software maker is likely to employ a new proprietary DRM with its forthcoming Zune players, one which is incompatible with its PlaysForSure DRM used by its OEM partners such as Creative, SanDisk, Sony, Samsung, iRiver, and Archos.

"It appears that Microsoft is willing to risk supporting two competing standards in an effort to replicate Apple's successful vertically integrated iPod+ iTunes model," he said. "However, we believe the unexpected side effect will be further fragmentation in the Windows Media market, creating more confusion to consumers."

Wu said he remains "underwhelmed" with the much-hyped Zune, which he calls a "repackaged Toshiba Gigabeat" player.

Despite the removal of Apple shares from the AmTech Focus List, Wu maintains a "Buy" rating on Apple stock with a price target of $91.

Thanks for your insight Melf.

Scott, I read that....but its funny, he maintains 91 target with buy, and says its too 'high' at the moment .  i thnk its a perfect example of 'pumping' and then 'bashing' to get in while its ower again. 

having said, that i m keeping a close watch on my long position in aapl, i think it mite be due for small but quick correction b4 it takes its 52 week high.

Shares of RealNetworks Inc. hit a new 52-week high at 11.81$ today on the release of a music player designed to work exclusively with the company's Rhapsody music subscription service as the company bids to compete with the dominant iTunes/iPod duo from Apple. In the daily chart we can see that all indicators are showing Bullish signals, and probably tomorrow we'll see another year high, Keep an eye on it..........

After hours trading stock going north ... 

Apple net income soars 27%
Maker of iPods and Macs says profit, revenue jump during fourth quarter; shares rally after hours.
October 18 2006: 4:39 PM EDT

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Apple Computer's profit soared 27 percent in the latest quarter on strong sales of its Macintosh computers, the company said Wednesday.

The maker of iPods and Mac computers reported net income surged to $546 million, or 62 cents a share, up from $430 million, or 50 cents a share, in the same period last year. Revenue jumped nearly 32 percent to $4.84 billion in the quarter ended Sept. 30.

Apple shares climbed 4 percent in extended trade on the results, which were released after the market close.

The results handily beat Wall Street's expectations. Analysts surveyed by Thomson First Call had forecast earnings per share of 51 cents on revenue of $4.67 billion for the company's fiscal fourth quarter.

Apple (Charts), which competes against Dell (Charts) and Hewlett-Packard (Charts) in the PC market, said it shipped 1.61 million Macs during the quarter. The company recently transitioned its entire line of Macs to include Intel (Charts) processors.

Cupertino, Calif.-based Apple said it shipped 8.73 million iPods during the quarter, up 35 percent from the same period last year. The company is the undisputed leader in the digital music space but could face stiffer competition next month when Microsoft (Charts) is set to debut its so-called iPod killer named Zune