3SOF

Quote from: Melf Elf on August 23, 2006, 01:20:51 PM

Quote from: Melf Elf on August 23, 2006, 10:20:35 AM
Short- term Double Top at 4.48. 

Double Top Target: 3.88 MADE.

The 4.48 Double Top was a failure at the down trendline off the 9.20 high (purple line).  There were a couple more attempts at/above that trendline, that failed.   AVII sold off 25.2% from the 4.48 high, to a low of 3.35, near its 50DMA.

That's often what occurs in charts like this, that are bearish.  Quick rallies to resistance, that fail.  In this case, Dutton upgraded AVII to a Strong Speculative Buy, but lowered their target from $10 to $6. 

A call like that always confuses me.

   

It was only a speculative buy with a chance of a big gain to $10, but now it's a STRONG speculative buy, with a chance of a much smaller gain to $6.

   

At any rate, the recent low of 3.35 in AVII was a couple of pennies above its 50DMA, and within a couple of pennies of the 3.37 "W"-Bottom breakout.  Yesterday's candle was a Bullish Engulfer on higher volume than the prior day's volume.  I like that.

On Monday, the 34/55 RSIs came into Bullish Synchroncity.  Yesterday's print of 3.52 around noon, a penny above Monday's 3.51 high, was a "buy pivot." I like that.

Yesterday's Bullish Engulfer was a re-test and bounce off the top of the Kumo (Cloud).  I like that.  (See next chart).

As awful as this chart has looked from the 9.20 top to the 2.55 low, the rally to 4.48 was a gain of 91.4%.  Bear market rallies can be like that.  Very sharp rallies to some level of resistance (the purple down trendline, in this case), and very nice gains.

But, what we want to see after that kind of rally, is whether "it was just a bear market rally," or if the stock can find some level of support, and if it has begun a change in trend, to bullish. 

Next, we'll look at the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart.

Looking at the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart, we can see "at a glance...the table of balance" that since AVII broke below the Kumo (Cloud) in April, then left an Abandoned Baby stuck in the Kumo (Cloud), the table of balance has favored The Bears.

That changed on August 22, which was the first close above the Kumo (Cloud) since February.  The 4.48 high was a Double Top basis the intraday charts, but it also was the top of a flagpole of a "possible" Bull Flag here.

Once stocks break out above the Kumo (Cloud), the top or the bottom of it "should" act as support.  Thus far, yesterday's Bull Engulfer was a bounce near the top of the Kumo (Cloud) and it also was a fourth data point of the "possible" Bull Flag (pattern in blue). 

Quote from: Melf Elf on September 13, 2006, 04:05:00 AM
On Monday, the 34/55 RSIs came into Bullish Synchroncity.  Yesterday's print of 3.52 around noon, a penny above Monday's 3.51 high , was a "buy pivot." I like that.

This morning's 3.51 low was an exact re-test of the September 11 buy pivot.  Volume is very poor, but AVII at least is heading in the right direction off the re-test.

Quote from: Melf Elf on September 18, 2006, 02:57:22 PM

Quote from: Melf Elf on September 13, 2006, 04:05:00 AM
On Monday, the 34/55 RSIs came into Bullish Synchroncity.  Yesterday's print of 3.52 around noon, a penny above Monday's 3.51 high , was a "buy pivot." I like that.

This morning's 3.51 low was an exact re-test of the September 11 buy pivot.  Volume is very poor, but AVII at least is heading in the right direction off the re-test.

AVII is wearing me out, re-testing that 3.51 "buy pivot."  It went back down yesterday, to 3.53. 

It's now back to the top of the Bull Flag/Bull Channel, which comes in today at 3.766.  Yesterday's high was 3.75.  Today's high is 3.75. 

I'll post the daily chart next, to look at the bigger picture.

Quote from: Melf Elf on September 20, 2006, 12:55:07 PM
It's now back to the top of the Bull Flag/Bull Channel, which comes in today at 3.766.  Yesterday's high was 3.75.  Today's high is 3.75. 

AVII has been trading in this Bull Flag/Bull Channel, on either side of the big purple down trendline.  A print of 3.77 would be a technical breakout of that pattern, and "should" get the stock moving higher.  It needs volume.

I'll stop it out at 3.52, for a break even.  Enough with the "buy pivot" re-tests!   

AVII currently is BID 3.73...ASK 3.74.  High on the day still is 3.75.

Quote from: Melf Elf on September 20, 2006, 01:02:39 PM
I'll stop it out at 3.52, for a break even.  Enough with the "buy pivot" re-tests!   

Stopped it out at 3.52 for a break even.

Press Release Source: AVI BioPharma, Inc.


AVI BioPharma Presents Positive Preclinical Data Evaluating NEUGENE Antisense Compounds Against Influenza A Virus and the E. coli Bacteria
Friday September 29, 9:00 am ET 
Posters Presented at the Interscience Conference on Antimicrobial Agents and Chemotherapy


PORTLAND, Ore.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--AVI BioPharma, Inc. (Nasdaq:AVII - News), today presented preclinical data regarding the use of its NEUGENE® antisense technology against influenza A and E. coli infection. The data was presented in two posters at the 46th Interscience Conference on Antimicrobial Agents and Chemotherapy (ICAAC) meetings held in San Francisco.


The first presentation, titled "Inhibition of Several Subtypes of Influenza A Virus with Antisense Morpholino Oligomers," was presented by AVI collaborators from Oregon State University and included data from collaborators at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology; the Public Health Agency of Canada in Winnipeg; and Mahidol University in Bangkok, Thailand. The data showed that two AVI antisense compounds inhibited several strains of influenza A, including the avian strain H5N1 in cell culture as previously reported. Experiments in mice are ongoing.

The second presentation, titled "Antisense Phosphorodiamidate Morpholino Oligomer-Peptide Conjugate: Dose-Response in Mice Infected with Escherichia Coli," was presented by AVI scientist Bruce Geller, Ph.D. The data showed that the AVI antisense compounds promoted survival in mice infected with E. coli. These antisense compounds, referred to as NeuBiotics, reduced bacteremia in mice by three orders of magnitude compared with controls.

"We believe that the diverse applications of our NEUGENE antisense technology exhibited by these presentations suggest that our technology holds promise for broad utility in battling infectious diseases," said Patrick L. Iversen, Ph.D., senior vice president of research and development at AVI. "By targeting regions of the viral genetic code that are common to all influenza A subtypes, we expect that our NEUGENE drugs will be effective against avian flu and the far more common seasonal influenza viruses. Owing to the events of the past several weeks, we are acutely aware of the importance of developing new strategies for combating troublesome bacterial infections like E. coli."

About AVI BioPharma

AVI BioPharma develops therapeutic products for the treatment of life-threatening diseases using third-generation NEUGENE antisense drugs. AVI's lead NEUGENE antisense compound is designed to target cell proliferation disorders, including cardiovascular restenosis, cancer and polycystic kidney disease. In addition to targeting specific genes in the body, AVI's antiviral program uses NEUGENE antisense compounds to combat disease by targeting single-stranded RNA viruses, including West Nile virus, hepatitis C virus, dengue virus, Ebola virus and influenza A virus. AVI has introduced a NEUGENE-based exon-skipping technology called ESPRIT therapy. More information about AVI is available on the company's Web site at http://www.avibio.com.

"Safe Harbor" Statement under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995: The statements that are not historical facts contained in this release are forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties, including, but not limited to, the results of research and development efforts, the results of preclinical and clinical testing, the effect of regulation by the FDA and other agencies, the impact of competitive products, product development, commercialization and technological difficulties, and other risks detailed in the company's Securities and Exchange Commission filings.

Contact:
AVI BioPharma, Inc.
Michael Hubbard, 503-227-0554
[email protected]
or
Lippert/Heilshorn & Associates Inc. (Investor Contacts)
Jody Cain, 310-691-7100
[email protected]
or
Brandi Floberg, 310-691-7100
[email protected]
or
Waggener Edstrom Worldwide (Press Contact)
Bioscience and Healthcare Practice
Jenny Moede, 503-443-7000
[email protected]

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: AVI BioPharma, Inc.

Looking stronger...
The chart is looking better over the past month. Hope to see this move continue
toward $6.00+ going into next month.

52wk Range: 2.19 - 9.20

Volume: 652,562
Avg Vol (3m): 689,069

Technicals 
Percentage Gainer

Last Price Quote is:
5.61%above 13-day EMA
4.86%above 50-day EMA
RS Rating: 57 

Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $189.60 
P/E Ratio: NA 
PEG Ratio: N/A 
Next Earnings: 11/10/2006
Last Analyst Rating: Mkt Outperform

Symmetrical Triangle (continuation) Pattern
Breakout.....

in @ 3.73

down on low volume, is the gap filled??

Quote from: la-onda on October 02, 2006, 06:02:46 PM
down on low volume, is the gap filled??

Oliver,

Yes, the gap is filled, and AVII closed about three cents above the top of the Bull Flag/Channel.  These last three candles since the breakout are black, so the stock isn't holding the gains, and the breakout looks suspect.

If this is simply a gap-fill, and a re-test of the top of the channel, that's fine.  But, very much more on the downside here is going to look like more weakness after the breakout, especially if the September 11 and September 25  lows of 3.35 and 3.39 get taken out. 

 
fyi:
AVI BioPharma Reports Results on Hepatitis C Virus Clinical Trial
Wednesday October 4, 9:00 am ET

PORTLAND, Ore.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--AVI BioPharma, Inc. (Nasdaq:AVII - News) reported results today from the second phase of its multicenter study in patients with chronic active hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. The second phase of this exploratory trial was designed to assess the safety, tolerability, pharmacokinetics (PK), and viral and clinical response to treatment with AVI's proprietary NEUGENE® antisense compound, AVI-4065, in HCV patients. Preliminary results from this study were presented in May at the International Conference on Antiviral Research (ICAR).
AVI-4065 exhibited favorable safety and tolerability profiles in the 12 patients completing the clinical treatment phase of the protocol, with no serious drug-related adverse events or tolerability issues observed during treatment or follow-up. Consistent with the preliminary results, the therapeutic threshold required for efficacy of the drug was not achieved at the treatment dose used in this protocol.

Significant differences were observed in the plasma PK in patients compared with what was noted in healthy volunteers: notably, a longer plasma half-life (approximately 26 hours compared with 13 hours), a lower peak plasma concentration (initially 1.2 compared with 1.6 ug/ml), and a slower plasma clearance (approximately 15 compared with 40 ml/min). These observations demonstrate a direct pharmacodynamic response to HCV infection.

The peak plasma concentration (Cmax) was expected to reach the predicted therapeutic threshold of approximately 3.5 ug/ml during the treatment protocol, but rose to only 2.0 ug/ml after 14 days of therapy. With an initial Cmax of 1.2 ug/ml and final Cmax of 2.0 ug/ml, the therapeutic threshold predicted from preclinical models to be required for efficacy was not achieved.

Based on these observations, AVI does not expect a clinically relevant reduction in viral titer at the treatment dose used in this protocol; nor was one observed in the 12 treated HCV patients analyzed as a group. The trend in viral responses in HCV patients dosed subcutaneously at 100 mg twice a day for 14 days was similar to that reported in preliminary data in May, ranging from 0 to 0.8 log reduction. Of the two ways to increase Cmax to reach the predicted therapeutic threshold (increase treatment duration or increase dose), the data appear to support a significant increase in dose in order to exceed the 3.5 ug/ml predicted therapeutic threshold for efficacy.

"Although it is always disappointing not to achieve clear clinical success on an initial trial targeting a new disease, it is encouraging that we observed a significant pharmacodynamic effect that we believe can be fine-tuned to provide a clinical benefit," said Denis R. Burger, Ph.D., AVI chief executive officer. "We are fortunate that NEUGENE antisense technology provides flexibility for clinical protocol modification."

Based on these data, AVI has initiated a protocol modification to increase treatment duration. The company is also in the process of planning an additional protocol to significantly increase the treatment dose in order to exceed the therapeutic threshold predicted from preclinical models. Preclinical studies to support increasing the dose by more than tenfold have already been completed.

The first phase of this study, completed in March 2006, evaluated 31 healthy volunteers who received 14 consecutive days of treatment with AVI-4065 at three dosage levels. In the second phase of this clinical trial, patients with HCV were stratified into two cohorts, one composed of patients who had not received previous treatment and the other composed of patients who failed conventional interferon and ribavirin treatment. In addition to efficacy as measured by HCV virological responses to treatment with AVI-4065, the study assessed the safety, tolerability and pharmacokinetics of the compound.

HCV is a single-stranded RNA virus. Because HCV and other single-stranded RNA viruses have relatively simple genetic structures, they are attractive targets for AVI's NEUGENE antisense, which is designed to target conserved portions of the viral genetic code that are not likely to mutate over time.

Quote from: Melf Elf on October 03, 2006, 04:36:40 AM
These last three candles since the breakout are black, so the stock isn't holding the gains, and the breakout looks suspect.

Oliver,

Yeah, darn it, AVII wasn't looking so good, technically, coming into today.  After repeatedly re-testing the 3.52 buy pivot, and failing, it closed back below the Bull Flag yesterday, at 3.42.

Quote
But, very much more on the downside here is going to look like more weakness after the breakout, especially if the September 11 and September 25  lows of 3.35 and 3.39 get taken out. 

3.35 - 3.39 support got taken out at the open. 

out @ 3.23$ 

The chart is looking better
Recent CandleStick Analysis
Very Bullish
Oct-05-2006 Bullish Engulfing
Support @ $3.70...3.41...3.24
Resistance @ $4.08...4.29...4.96...6.84

52wk Range: 2.55 - 9.20
Volume: 839,026
Avg Vol (3m): 640,989

Technicals
Close Above the 50-day MA
Percentage Gainer

Last Price Quote is:
6.27%above 13-day MA
5.13%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: 74 

Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $189.60 
P/E Ratio: NA 
PEG Ratio: N/A 
Next Earnings: 11/10/2006
Last Analyst Rating: Mkt Outperform