3SOF

Quote from: Se7en on September 25, 2006, 04:36:33 PM
Do you also have a 'worst case exit strategy'? Sell at the open or wait or ...?

Se7en,

Yes, if a stock is called down at the open below my stop, I sell at the open, at the market price, no questions asked. 

The reason that I do that, is seldom do stocks recover right away from a gap down below support.  The only one that I can think of in recent memory that recovered immediately is BRCD.  It had a nasty gap down on August 8, then rallied just about straight up to a new high for the year, on September 19.  BRCD, by far, is the exception to what generally happens.

Usually, stocks take awhile to form a new base before they recover, and in the interim, many of them go a lot lower first, if important support was broken.

In ARNA, 11.81 was the low, prior to the recent breakout above 12.40-12.43.  Yesterday's low of 11.85, prior to the rally into the positive close, is an indication that the market recognized that as support.

If ARNA is indicated something like BID 11.75...ASK 11.78 at today's open, they're going to take out that support "for openers."  Any indication that 11.81-11.85 support will be broken support at the open, also is an indtication that 11.81 - 11.85 likely will become resistance.

"Former support 'should' act as resistance."   

If that's the case, ARNA will have no choice but to go lower if 11.81 - 11.84 is resistance today, to find a new level of support

Next support is the green trendline, coming off the 9.18 July low.  That trendline has 4 hits, so it's been validated as support TWICE.  It comes in today, September 26, at 11.484. 

Below that is neckline support from the Inverse H&S breakout.  It comes in today at 11.098, then the 50DMA would be next, which is at 10.969.

Sorry about the bad news.    Good luck with your decision!

Sold my ARNA this morning!

Se7en,

It turns out that, although 11.81 got broken on the September 26 gap down, the up trendline off the July low held (Green #5).

After all of the sloppiness on both pattern breakouts, this morning the Inverse H&S target of 13.66 MADE, and the Rectangle target of 13.70 MADE.

Verr-ry irritating!   

Yep I just saw it, Cramer did help a bit but no regrets here though, I recuperated my loss wiith CLEC!:)
Thoughts about CPST Melf Elf?



Cramer's 'Mad Money' Recap: Dressed for Succession

By TheStreet.com Staff
10/3/2006 7:49 PM EDT
Click here for more stories by TheStreet.com Staff

Click here for an archive of Cramer's "Mad Money" recaps.

"My new favorite stock in the biotech development space is Arena Pharmaceuticals (ARNA - commentary - Cramer's Take)," Jim Cramer told viewers of his "Mad Money" TV show Tuesday.

Back on his Jan. 11 show, Cramer told viewers there were two biotech stocks that people had to own. One of them, ZymoGenetics (ZGEN - commentary - Cramer's Take) is down since he recommended it, but Cramer still likes this stock.

The other biotech play Cramer advised market players to get into was Myogen (MYOG - commentary - Cramer's Take). Since that time, Myogen is up more than 50%.

Gilead Sciences (GILD - commentary - Cramer's Take), which has agreed to acquire Myogen, "is smart in making this deal, and I would buy it here," Cramer said.

The next Myogen could be Arena, which is a little biotech company like Myogen that could get taken over because of its pipeline, he said. Arena has a "hot product" in its pipeline -- a weight-loss drug that should be "a huge revenue generator."

"People desperately want to look good," Cramer said.

The need to be thin is at least as important as it is to have wrinkle-free skin, and Arena is the play on this mentality, he said. Two-thirds of Americans in this country are overweight and Cramer believes Arena has the best obesity pill.

However, as Arena is a "tiny little company," he emphasized people use limit orders. The fact that it is small also means it could be swallowed by another company, such as Big Pharma companies that are "desperate" for something like Arena, Cramer said.

"Even if it doesn't get a bid, it has enough money to stay afloat," he added. "And its obesity drug could make you some money."

http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/funds/madmoneywrap/10312759.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA

Quote from: Se7en on October 04, 2006, 10:50:55 AM
Yep I just saw it, Cramer did help a bit

Se7en,

Thanks.  I couldn't find any news on it.  So, it was Cramer, eh?  Why couldn't he have given it the BOOYAH a few weeks ago?   

Quote
but no regrets here though, I recuperated my loss wiith CLEC!:)

Great!

Quote
Thoughts about CPST Melf Elf?

Same.  See two posts on September 26 in the CPST folder.

I never liked the guy and this certainly won't help!:)

Yes, I saw your post and the target of 1.36 was made but since then it looks like there's a reversal going on, wanted to know what you think of it?

Has anyone been watching ARNA the past two months? This stock is on fire!

calven ,
I haven't been watching as of late,
but I do see what you mean, did make a nice move.

Below are the 6 month and 1 year charts.

 
fyi:

FDA Confirms September 16th Advisory Committee Meeting to Review Lorcaserin for Obesity and Weight Management
Friday , August 06, 2010 09:20ET

SAN DIEGO and WOODCLIFF LAKE, N.J., Aug. 6, 2010 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (Nasdaq: ARNA) and Eisai Inc. announced today that the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has notified the company of the confirmed scheduling of an Endocrinologic and Metabolic Drugs Advisory Committee meeting on September 16, 2010, for the review of the lorcaserin New Drug Application (NDA). Lorcaserin, which Arena discovered and has developed for weight management, is intended for obese patients as well as overweight patients who have at least one weight-related co-morbid condition.

"Our primary objective at this time is to obtain FDA approval of lorcaserin," said Jack Lief, Arena's President and Chief Executive Officer. "We have been preparing for this anticipated Advisory Committee meeting, and look forward to reviewing lorcaserin's profile with the panel members."

Arena submitted the lorcaserin NDA on December 22, 2009, and the FDA assigned a PDUFA date, the target date for the agency to complete its review of the application, of October 22, 2010.

Lorcaserin New Drug Application

The lorcaserin New Drug Application is based on a data package from lorcaserin's development program that includes 18 clinical trials totaling 8,576 patients. The pivotal Phase 3 clinical trial program, BLOOM (Behavioral modification and Lorcaserin for Overweight and Obesity Management) and BLOSSOM (Behavioral modification and LOrcaserin Second Study for Obesity Management), evaluated nearly 7,200 patients treated for up to two years. In both trials, lorcaserin was well tolerated and produced statistically significant weight loss.

About Lorcaserin

Lorcaserin is a new chemical entity that is believed to act as a selective serotonin 2C receptor agonist. The serotonin 2C receptor is expressed in the brain, including the hypothalamus, an area involved in the control of appetite and metabolism. Stimulation of the serotonin 2C receptor in the hypothalamus is associated with feeding behavior and satiety. Arena has patents that cover lorcaserin in the United States and other jurisdictions, which in most cases are capable of continuing into 2023 without taking into account any patent term extensions or other exclusivity Arena might obtain.

About Arena Pharmaceuticals

Arena is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on discovering, developing and commercializing oral drugs that target G protein-coupled receptors, an important class of validated drug targets, in four major therapeutic areas: cardiovascular, central nervous system, inflammatory and metabolic diseases. Arena's most advanced drug candidate, lorcaserin, is intended for weight management and has completed a pivotal Phase 3 clinical trial program. Arena has filed an NDA for lorcaserin with the FDA, and the FDA has assigned a PDUFA date of October 22, 2010, for review of the application. Arena's wholly owned subsidiary, Arena Pharmaceuticals GmbH, has granted Eisai Inc. exclusive rights to market and distribute lorcaserin in the United States.

Arena Pharmaceuticals(R) and Arena(R) are registered service marks of the company.

8 Promising Biotech Buyout Targets if Their Products Can Deliver...

The following are a few biotechs with promising products in their pipelines that have made the big boys sit up and take notice. Without further ado, the 8 promising biotechs priced for a buyout if their products can deliver:

Arena Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ARNA): Arena develops weight-loss drugs targeted towards preventing obesity. Arena is crossing its fingers that Lorcaserin, its most advanced clinical product, can earn FDA approval after being rejected in October due to safety concerns. Arena is developing the drug with Eisai Inc. (ESALY), and has made resubmitting the drug's application its top priority. The drug's approval can't come soon enough; Arena lost $124.5 million last year, equivalent to a $1.14 loss per share. With dim profit and growth prospects, Arena needs the shot in the arm a drug like Lorcaserin would provide. If Lorcaserin can gain approval, then Arena may warrant a look. Shares currently trade at 1.28

Technicals
Record Price Low

Last Price Quote is:
-4.63%below 13-day EMA
-14.47%below 50-day EMA
RS Rating: 6