3SOF

Earnings Expected on Oct 17

Quote from: setravis on October 12, 2006, 01:41:30 PM
Earnings Expected on Oct 17

Thanks, setravis.  Applause.  I often forget to pay attention to earnings dates.   

I'll sell before then, hopefully in the 21.73-21.94 Double Target area. 

Quote from: Melf Elf on October 12, 2006, 01:32:10 PM
that turned into the 4th Data point (low) for the Ascending Triangle, prior to yesterday's breakout.  That puts Target: 21.73 IN PLAY

The 21.73 target MADE.  I'll sell before the close today.

Quote from: Melf Elf on August 30, 2006, 06:24:48 AM
Target: 21.94 is IN PLAY

21.94 MADE.  Earnings tomorrow.

1. Introduction

I'll apply my method of using both technical and fundamental inputs to get a feel on Intel's share price direction. I'm a firm believer that a successful investor needs to know what he's doing and why he's doing it, but at the same time and above all, respect the market's opinion.

As you'll see, I start this analysis with my mind completely open to all possibilities. As I get information I start to develop an opinion on the stock and end with an objective trading plan.

I hope you enjoy If you do and want to receive subsequent updates on this analysis, as other comprehensive analysis on different stocks, please register.

2. Profile

Intel Corporation (INTC) engages in the manufacture of semiconductor chips, as well as in the development of advanced integrated digital technology platforms for the computing and communications industries. The company's products include microprocessors; chipsets; motherboards; flash memory; wired and wireless connectivity products; communications infrastructure components, including network processors; application and cellular baseband processors; and products for networked storage. Its products are incorporated primarily into desktop computers, the infrastructure for the Internet, enterprise computing servers, notebooks, wireless connectivity products, and handheld computing devices. Intel Corporation's microprocessors primarily include Intel Core, Intel Pentium, Intel Celeron, and Intel Xeon; wireless connectivity products consist of Intel PRO/ Wireless 5116 Broadband Interface; cellular baseband processors comprise Intel PXA 901; and communications infrastructure products primarily include brand name Intel Pentium M processor 760. The company's customers include original equipment and design manufacturers, PC and network communications products users, and industrial and communications equipment manufacturers. It offers its products through its sales force and distributors in the Asia-Pacific, Europe, the Americas, and Japan. Intel Corporation was incorporated in 1968 and is based in Santa Clara, California.

3. Technical Analysis
3.1. All History Chart



I'm sure you like these very long term charts. It's a pity www.stockcharts.com only gives users access to 3 years of data, isn't it? I think it's hard to make meaningful studies on stocks with such limited data.

Anyway, INTC was an incredible stock to own until early 2000. Since then it collapsed 70% and stayed down. From this information you know INTC was a market darling in the past, and usually these stocks find it hard to comeback to new all time highs, because of the overhead supply.

3.2. Medium Term Chart



The medium term chart on INTC is bearish to neutral. There's strong resistance around $24 and $30.

3.3. Short Term Chart



Actually INTC is at a critical point on the short term chart today. It is important, from a technical perspective, that it comes back to finish in the green today, or it will break a short term ascending trendline on the downside.

The 50 day simple moving average may provide the support for a late day rally. Bulls are hoping for this outcome.

Generally the technical picture isn't attractive. It looks like there may be some bounce from current levels and a bull run to medium term resistance levels, but the risk on the downside seems greater at this point. Let's check the fundamentals 

4. Fundamental Analysis

4.1. Number of Shares Outstanding



INTC is aggressively reducing its number of shares outstanding and this is a bullish development. The company is buying back shares it sold to the public in the past and this has a positive effect on Earnings Per Share. Also, the share price needs to rise just to keep the same market cap, as market cap = share price*# outstanding shares.

The current market cap is $118.1 B.

4.2. Liquidity



This latest quarter the current ratio, which is the ratio between total current assets and total current liabilities, fell below the crucial level of 2. INTC's balance sheet is getting weaker.

4.3. Revenues



Intel's revenues grew every year since 1994 until 2000. Then there was the 2001 hangover and a fall in annual revenues from $33.73 B to $26.54 B. 2005 marked the all time high in revenues for INTC, but analysts are estimating slightly lower revenues for 2006 and 2007. I wonder why is that. Because of competition from AMD?

Anyway, INTC's revenue multiple is 3.31 against an average Price to Sales Ratio for the semiconductor industry of 2.6.

4.4. Profits



There's been steady earnings growth since the debacle of 2001, but analysts are a bit pessimistic about 2006 and 2007, even though they've been revising their estimates higher for 2007 and the 4th quarter of 2006. Perhaps this is a bullish factor.

The Price Earnings Ratio for 2006 currently stands at 24, for 2007 it stands at 18. The sector's average earnings multiple is 23.5, so INTC multiple is about average.

5. General Overview

As we've seen, the technical picture on INTC is mixed to bearish. In terms of the fundamentals, I truly enjoy the reduction in the number of shares outstanding, but I also note that the balance sheet got a bit weak on the 3rd quarter. After the 2001 downhill, INTC's revenues and earnings are coming back in full force, surpassing it's all time highs set in 2000.

But analysts are somewhat conservative for the remainder of 2006 and 2007. I believe there's room for positive earnings surprises on INTC going forward.

Globalization is making the world grow at rates not seen since the 1960's. INTC is a global company and will definitely benefit from the world economy growth, as more and more of the 3 billion people from the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) suddenly come to the market buying the expensive goods we've become used to in the past 25 years or so.

6. Trading Plan

I'm preparing myself to manage the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio, a $325,000 portfolio that started in April 2005 with $100,000. This portfolio is organized to have a maximum of 15 different stock holdings, and although I'm moderately bullish on INTC, I don't think it is one of the top 15 stocks in terms of risk/reward available in the market.

Will work to find more attractive plays. Don't forget to register so you can receive the 3 Stocks on Fire free newsletter. Thank you !

INTC

Wow, how do you do it Terliso???

Are you a paying subscriber of stockcharts or something?

Thanks Alistair 

 
Thanks a lot,David!
where can we  get a company's fundamental info,such as shares outstanding,current ratio,revenues....?Is there any way to get these info of pennies?

Quote from: brucey on November 05, 2006, 06:05:40 PM

Thanks a lot,David!
where can we  get a company's fundamental info,such as shares outstanding,current ratio,revenues....?Is there any way to get these info of pennies?

Well, I have a paid service, but it is very cheap, just $5 a month to get all the fundamental information I need on user friendly tables. You can get the service at www.alphatrade.com.

But I also subscribe to their quotes and news services, I don't know if you can subscribe just the "Fundamentals" or you need the full package. My package costs $40 a month, but it's worth it.

But there's no historical information on the number of shares outstanding, I get it by dividing the net income number by the earnings per share number, since EPS = Net Income/# outstanding shares  => # outstanding shares = Net Income/EPS.

Yes, you have this information for all US traded stocks, OTCBB stocks included (but no Pink Sheets).

Bought back my shares of INTC this morning, at 20.55, after it reversed off the morning low at 20.32, and went green.  Stop: 20.31.  Risk: a loss of 1.2%.

20.32 is the bottom of the Bull Flag, near the 50DMA

Quote from: Melf Elf on October 16, 2006, 09:54:47 AM
Target: 21.94 is IN PLAY

21.94 MADE.  Earnings tomorrow.

Quote

That was the last of our 3  upside pattern targets.  They all MADE. 

Since earnings, INTC has corrected back to its 50DMA, which is normal after achieving the targets.  This looks to be a Bullish Continuation pattern off the 50DMA.  If it isn't I'm out, for a 1.2% give back of my gains.

The 34/55 RSIs came into Bullish Synchronicity on Friday.  The high Friday was 20.69, so that's the "buy pivot."  A print of 20.70 today is a technical Buy Signal from that indicator, so that looks good. 

INTC is currently just above it, at BID 20.72...ASK 20.73

Quote from: Melf Elf on November 06, 2006, 02:35:36 PM
Bought back my shares of INTC this morning, at 20.55, after it reversed off the morning low at 20.32, and went green.  Stop: 20.31.  Risk: a loss of 1.2%.

Sold ½ my INTC at 21.13.  Gain: 2.8%.

Sold it to defend against this being nothing more than a gap-filling rally, back to the bottom of this broken Symmetrical Triangle.

INTC has been bullish and MADE 3 upside target, so my trading thesis yesterday was that this Symmetrical Triangle "morphed" into a Bull Flag at the 50DMA (see the chart that I posted yesteday).

If my thesis about the Bull Flag is incorrect, I still will manage a gain on this trade if I'm stopped out for a 1.2% loss on the other ½ position.

Quote from: Melf Elf on November 07, 2006, 10:40:53 AM
INTC has been bullish and MADE 3 upside target, so my trading thesis yesterday was that this Symmetrical Triangle "morphed" into a Bull Flag at the 50DMA (see the chart that I posted yesteday).

INTC also put in a W-Bottom at the 50DMA.  Yesterday was a DOUBLE breakout:

21.18 - was a breakout of the W-Bottom. 21.96 is IN PLAY

21.51 - was a breakout of the Bull Flag/Bull Channel: 22.03 and 23.21 are IN PLAY.

Even if this turns out to be a Double Top, INTC has done a beautiful job coming out of that W-Bottom in late August:

1.  Our 3 upside pattern targets MADE before earnings, so that wasn't a worry.

2. The 50DMA not only was support on the selloff after earnings, as it "should be," INTC validated the 50DMA as support TWiCE, and in the process, put in a nice little "W"-Bottom, which is a fractal (repeating pattern) of the original Bullish W-Bottom that broke out on August 28.

3. INTC opened yesterday at 21.17 exactly, which was the pivot of the "W"-Bottom, filled all but three cents of the little opening gap, then broke out of the "W"-Bottom AND broke out of the Bull Flag/Bull Channel.

The only thing that I might like better than this chart, is the fact that Thomas Weisel, Goldman and Merrill Lynch all DOWNGRADED this stock, but INTC continued to act bullish, just as the patterns indicated.

It reinforces, "Ignore those men behind the curtain. They're no more wizards than we are." 

Sold another 25% of the postion at 22.03.  Gain: 7.3%

Quote from: Melf Elf on November 15, 2006, 04:02:46 AM
INTC also put in a W-Bottom at the 50DMA.  Yesterday was a DOUBLE breakout:

21.18 - was a breakout of the W-Bottom. 21.96 is IN PLAY

21.51 - was a breakout of the Bull Flag/Bull Channel: 22.03 and 23.21 are IN PLAY.

Targets 21.96 and 22.03 both MADE.

25% of my long position remaining.

All 9 Threads on INTC have been Merged.
Correction...."10 Threads" found 1 on the Penny Stock Picking Board....
Please use the search before starting new threads on a Stock Pick.
Chances are a thread already exist.
So why not post whatever you have to comment about on that pick to that thread.
"Simplicity" My fellow traders.   
All history on a stock pick in 1 thread is awesome.   

Thank You....and good luck with all your trades....make some $$$ 


I will leave Friday's closing chart while I'm here.......

Quote from: Melf Elf on November 15, 2006, 10:17:29 AM
Sold another 25% of the postion at 22.03.  Gain: 7.3%

25% of my long position remaining.

INTC has come back into the Bull Flag Channel, and closed just above its 50DMA, at 20.92.  I'll sell the remaining 25% of my long postion at 20.75, if it gets printed, for a 1% gain on that portion.

That will give me another winning trade in INTC: 3½% for this one.