3SOF

Nice move last session!  Broke through the 50 dma, 200 dma, and the six month resistance line on twice the average volume.  Will the gap at 3.00 fill?

Let's buy back TGB

TGB2

Alister,

Nice job on the TGB charts.  Applause.

After looking at all that's going on in this chart, I think I have a headache.  We need a face on the toolbar that is getting hammered in the head. 

Here's what I've got:

1. Ascending Trinangle #1

Coming off the Parabolic Return to 1.93 on June 13, TGB went into an Ascending Triangle.  That broke to the downside on August 9, putting a target of 1.51 IN PLAY.

2. Ascending Triangle #2

After the breakdown of Ascending Triangle #1, the stock went up to re-test the breakdown, and formed a smaller Ascending Triangle, a "fractal" (repeating pattern) of the larger one, from which TGB also broke down, putting a target of 1.98 IN PLAY.

NOTE: This pattern is circled in grreen, since it also "could be" the Left Shoulder of a Bullish Inverse H&S pattern.

The Ascending Triangle #2 target MADE on September 21.

3. W-Bottom

After the 1.98 target MADE, TGB rallied to 2.23, failed below the 200 DMA, then re-tested the 1.96 low, which held at 1.99.

That set up a "possible' W-Bottom (drawn below the candles).  Bullish only if the middle of the pattern (pivot) at 2.23 got taken out to the upside.

The technicals during this pattern:

A. MACD gave one of those "Hound of the Baskervilles" signals, coming ofF the Left Leg low, at 1.96.

B.  In the Right Leg, the 13/21 RSIs gave a Buy Signal at 2.17 on October 12, the day before the 2.23 "W" pivot got taken out to the upside.

Those were indications of an impending "W" Bottom breakout, on a print of 2.24.

2.24 got printed on October 13, putting  2.47-2.50 IN PLAY (depending on whether you use the Left Leg or the Right Leg to measure).  It didn't matter.  Both 2.47 and 2.50 MADE.

4. "Possible" Bullish Inverse H&S

We're currently in the Right Shoulder of it, "champing at the bit" at the neckline, for a breakout.

The technicals during this formation:

A. Both the 13/21 and the 34/55RSIs gave a Buy Signal at 2.48 on October 31.

B. On November 3, the MACD kicked higher of its signal line.

Problems that I've got:

1. I'm not sure where to put the neckline.  I have it at 2.59, the high of October 23.  There was a breakout to 2.63 on November 1, but the stock reversed, and closed on its low for the day.

TGB now is back at the neckline (using the 2.59), but I never know whether to "move the chains" and put the neckline at the 2.63, or not.  If I do that, we need to come down again for a Right Shoulder.  I'm inclined to leave it as it as, with the 2.63 as a "false breakout."  Hopefully, that's only a "temporary" false breakout.

That's always problematic for me.   

2. I don't like the Bearish Cross of the 50DMA below the 200DMA on October 11.  They can get rectified easily enough on a rally, so I won't make a big deal out of it, but it bugs me a little.

3. I've got risk:reward problems on an entry here.  I expect resistance at 2.90, which is about 11½% higher from here, and the stop is 2.30, about 11½% lower from here.

Risk:reward is 1:1.  I don't like that.

If this is a Bullish Inverse H&S, which it looks to be, then the target will be quite a bit higher than 2.90 resistance, as you showed on your chart, Alister, so the risk:reward would be much better.

By the way, I like the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart a lot at this juncture.  I'll post the MACD chart next, then the Ichy chart.

Thanks for your analysis, Alister. 



 

MACD

13/21 RSIs

Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Chart:

1. On the first Ascending Triangle rally attempt off the 1.93 Parabolic Return low, TGB ran smack into the Kumo (Cloud) on July 5.  More like smacking into the side of a mountain. 

From there, it was "stuck in the cloud," then fell below it.

2. On the second Ascending Triangle rally attermpt, the Kumo (Cloud) wasn't as thick, but the 8-day Tenkan-sen and 22-day Kijun-sen were inverted, and TGB found resistance at the latter.

It was a "no go," and TGB broke down again.

3. What I like about the rally off the W-Bottom, is that TGB:

A. Thrusted above the Kumo (Cloud) on the first rally attempt

B. Went down and planted a foot on the 22-day Kijun sen (solid red line), which was SUPPORT this go round, not RESISTANCE like it was in the Ascending Triangle #2 attermpt

C. Is back above the Kumo (Cloud), "champing at the bit" for a Bullish Inverse H&S pattern breakout

Bought TGB 2.59

Great analysis Melf... applause

on my watchlist for tomorrow guys, more applause

Amazing...I love reading Melf's anaylsis, it really helps me!

Applauds to alls.

...on the watch!

I like what I see here.....will probably join in tomorrow

Good luck, Alister, and to any of you who play TGB!

I have to pass on it, due to the risk:reward, primarily the 11½% risk, if the logical stop of 2.30 gets taken out to the downside.  2.30 is the low of the Halloween candle, when we got the second Buy Signal at 2.48 out of the RSIs, so that's the "logical stop."

The first Buy signal was at 2.18 on October 12, the day before the W-Bottom breakout.  "If" we had bought there, we'd be locked into a winner, now that we can move the stop up below the 2.30 Halloween low, when the 2.48 Buy Signal was given.

At yesterday's close of 2.58, we're "late to the trade," which is why the risk:reward is a bit problematic here.

TGB already has rallied 18.3% from the 2.18 Buy Signal, so we've "given that away."

TGB has rallied 4% from the 2.48 Buy Signal, so that's not bad.  We haven't given away much of the gain from that signal.

Yesterday, TGB put in a little Bearish Hangman at the neckline.  If it should come back toward the 2.48 Buy Signal, that would improve the risk: reward.  With a stop below 2.30 (so, 2.29), the risk would improve to a loss of 7.7%, on a stop out.  Reward would improve to 16.9% if we get the anticipated rally at least to 2.90 resistance.

That's a 1:2 risk:reward.  Better.  And, the reward would improve, of course, if we take out 2.90 to the upside. 

2.465 is the 8-day Tenkan-sen (solid green line), which could get tagged on selloff here, off yesterday's Bearish Hangman.

2.425 is the top of Kumo (Cloud) support.

So, we'll call it 2.42-2.48 , which "should be" support, if we get a little selloff. 

Meanwhile, I hope that TGB rallies straight up, so that Alister can get rich $$$. 

Opened position at 2.60 this morning, it could go higher than 2.90 but hey any gain will do....

I managed to get some for $2.59 this a.m.

Quote from: Melf Elf on November 07, 2006, 06:13:58 AM
2.465 is the 8-day Tenkan-sen (solid green line), which could get tagged on selloff here, off yesterday's Bearish Hangman.

2.425 is the top of Kumo (Cloud) support.

So, we'll call it 2.42-2.48 , which "should be" support, if we get a little selloff. 

Meanwhile, I hope that TGB rallies straight up, so that Alister can get rich $$$. 

I'll be joining you guys if I can get TGB in the mid- 2.42-2.48 area.  The 200DMA also is there, at 2.413, as of yesterday's close.

The low today is 2.51.