3SOF

Quote from: Melf Elf on October 17, 2006, 05:26:15 AM
For now, the caution flag is out with the RSI Across The Board Sell at 11.00.

GIGM was down only 4.8% this week which wasn't bad, given that "The Force" wasn't with it, technially, with the RSI Across The Board Sell at 11.00 a week ago Friday, and with Monday's break below the Bearish Rising Wedge.

I've removed the latter from the chart, since it was rising so sharply.  It's not a factor, near-term.

Despite short-term technical difficulities, GIGM still is longer-term bullish, and the target of 14.88 still is IN PLAY as long as it trades above the purple trendline.

What would look really, really nice from here, is for GIGM to go down to about 9.95 - 10.00, then rally.  I say that because:

1. After the October 4 breakdown below the Big Symmetrical Triangle (purple), it would re-establish that trendline breakout as support.

2. It would give us Data Point #4 of another Symmetrical Triangle, a fractal (repeating pattern) of the other two Symmetrical Triangles.

3. It would be support at the bottom of the Kumo (Cloud), which "should" act as support here.  It's at 9.95 as of Friday's close.  It probably will rise a little.

Yesterday looked like The Bulls staged a failed coup d' etat, rallying it to 10.95 then retreating, and closing down a bit on the day.

We end up with:

1. A false breakout above the down trendline off the 12.55 high.

2. Failure below 11.03 resistance, at the top of the Kumo (Cloud)

3. Failure below the RSI Across The Board Sell Signal, at 11.00

4. A Bearish Inverted Hangman at resistance (needs downside confirmation)

This is longer-term Bullish, so the Bulls still could successfully pull off another attempt at the upside here.   But, it would have looked better, technically, if The Bulls simply had given it up at the outset, and gone down and re-established support at the top of the Symmetrical Triangle (purple trendline).

   

Inspite of the recent gaming legislation this one didnt lose much of value in price. I am gonna get into gigm when they announce their earnings date.

Melf-elf..great follow up you have been doing on gigm.
So you get a special........

Bought GIGM at 9.92. 

Quote from: Melf Elf on October 24, 2006, 05:22:47 AM
But, it would have looked better, technically, if The Bulls simply had given it up at the outset, and gone down and re-established support at the top of the Symmetrical Triangle (purple trendline).

This is what I was looking for yesterday.  The top of the Ascending Triangle is at about 9.98 for today.  If we close very much below here, I'll stop it out.  This area "should be" support.

Quote from: njshiva on October 24, 2006, 08:06:43 AM

Melf-elf..great follow up you have been doing on gigm.
So you get a special........

njshiva,

Ha!  That was funny.  Thanks.  I was gettin' lonely in here. 

EDIT: Sorry, the chart would post.  Try again..

Hi Melf,

Just writing in to say you're not alone!!     I just jumped in this one as well as I like the double support.  Let's make some money!!   

Thai

Quote from: thai626 on October 24, 2006, 11:39:31 AM
Hi Melf,

Just writing in to say you're not alone!!     I just jumped in this one as well as I like the double support.  Let's make some money!!   

Hey, Thai!

I just calculated the trendline for the top of the Ascending Triangle (purple lline on this morning's chart).  It comes in today at 9.974.

I don't like the fact that we're spending so much time below that.  We're not much below it, but Bulls "should be" jumping all over this re-test as an opportunity to re-ente,r after selling the Bear Channel break, at 11.58, on Septermber 28th.

The current price is 17% discount to that nice exit.

They aren't buying.   

I'm not fond of wimpy Bulls.  Or, wimpy Bears, for that matter. 

If we don't close at 9.97, or better, this re-test is HIGHLY suspect.

I've decided to give it until 9.69, max.  That's a penny below the October 4 reaction low of 9.70 after the October 2 smash to 9.05.  That would be a loss of 2.3% from my 9.92 entry.  I might even dump it before that, if we don't get the close at, or above, the 9.974 trendline.

I don't want to ride this all the way back to 9.05.  Or, lower. 

Good luck, Thai!

Thai,

It's looking a bit better.

Something like a neckline up at 10.21, then a Right Shoulder and a breakout, would be nice. 

At this point, just a close at 9.97, or better, would be nice. 

A close at 10.27, or better, would give us a Bullish Hammer. 

That would be real nice. 

Quote from: Melf Elf on October 24, 2006, 12:02:28 PM
I might even dump it before that, if we don't get the close at, or above, the 9.974 trendline.

Thai,

Well-ll, my friend...

We've got a Symmetrical Triangle on the 5-minute chart that has broken to the downside. 

The Bulls have done a lousy job of defending the top of the Ascending Triangle.  If they're not going to represent it, I'm not interested. 

If I don't see something that looks very close to 9.974 at the close, I'll dump it.   

Ticks me off, after wasting so much time watching this thing the past week and a half (we need a Cranky Face on the toolbar).

That "Undecided Face" looks cranky.  Let's try that one > > > 

GIGM currently is BID 9.96...ASK 9.97

And, The Bulls aren't jumping all over it. 

Grumble...grumble...grumble....

Sold GIGM at 9.83.  Loss: 0.9%

This is one of those trades that I used to hang onto, "feeling" that it probably will rally like gangbusters tomorrow.  It "should" rally tomorrow.

It didn't hold that trendline.

Take the small loss, and move on.   

Coulda...shoulda...would...

I shoulda sold that break of the Symmetrical Triangle on the 5-Minute chart.  That was a pretty good clue that The Bulls weren't defending the trendline.

I coulda had a small gain.

Move on, Melf.

Coulda...shoulda...woulda 

   What a bad close eh Melf!!

That's very unfortunate!  I will be putting in a stop tomorrow as I got in a 9.91.  i will give it a little breathing room but not much.     I'm hoping some of my losses if I were to take any would be covered by the gains from NTRZ.ob.   

i'm just going to hope for the best tomorrow.  Good luck Melf with your next investment!

Thai

Quote from: thai626 on October 24, 2006, 05:49:28 PM
  What a bad close eh Melf!!

Thai,

Yeah.  Lousy.

Quote
That's very unfortunate!  I will be putting in a stop tomorrow as I got in a 9.91.  i will give it a little breathing room but not much.     I'm hoping some of my losses if I were to take any would be covered by the gains from NTRZ.ob.   

Good for you, Thai, and I'm happy to know that you have a nice gain in NTZR.ob.  I don't follow those. 

USE A STOP, and don't let a "mistake" turn into a disaster.   GIGM "could" rally like gangbusters tomorrow, but I never again am going be to a "bagholder" in any stock.

This one CLOSED below trendline support. 

Noo-oo-o....."Been There...Done That."

Recent example....BDCO...

I stopped it out for a 1.7% loss on the break of bullish-looking Symmetrical Triangle "Continuation Pattern," after the HUGE upside gain!

Definitely "looked" bullish...until that break.  What if I'd "hung on," HOPING.

WRONG.

At today's close, if I had "held," and "hoped" that it would turn out bullish....

WRONG.

I'd be a HUGE "bagholder," to the tune of a loss of 24.2%, and the danged thing just broke below a Symmetrical triangle.

Arrrrgh....

It "Could" find support at the last low....


Arrrgh....

GET ME OUTTA THIS THING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I'm real, real happy with my 1.7% loss. 

Melf,

0.9% loss, any loss sucks, but gotta applaud your discipline not to take larger losses on a consistent basis!

Ive been busy lately, but when I didnt sell ASTM yesterday and today when it hit the 200sma, I was reminded again of your trades in GNBT, and how I didnt learn my lesson yet    "Sell when targets are made" and to me that was the target.

Along the lines of these declining stocks, was wondering if I could get a bit of "Melfian Analysis" on the GNBT thread, I got back in today thinking the 200 sma would be support, but, uh, it wasnt.

Also, got in EMFP recently at .8 based on previous candlestick support, I will probalby be stubborn about that stock despite the horrendous chart, but was wondering if you think I could see a rounded bottom out of it?  Or anything positive, lol?

Quote from: Melf Elf on October 24, 2006, 04:15:24 PM
Sold GIGM at 9.83.  Loss: 0.9%

This is one of those trades that I used to hang onto, "feeling" that it probably will rally like gangbusters tomorrow.  It "should" rally tomorrow.

It didn't hold that trendline.

Take the small loss, and move on.   

Coulda...shoulda...would...

I shoulda sold that break of the Symmetrical Triangle on the 5-Minute chart.  That was a pretty good clue that The Bulls weren't defending the trendline.

I coulda had a small gain.

Move on, Melf.

Coulda...shoulda...woulda 

Let's not panic here...yet. I find it interesting that noone has mentioned the alignment GIGM's responsiveness to Fibonacci retracement levels. I normally am not a huge fan and treat them more like a phenomena than a trading indicator. In any case...drop some Fibs onto the latest move from the July low to the Sep top. We closed just at the 38.1% and 9.71-5 look sliek the 50%. It's responded to 38.1 and 50% and 61% fairly consistently...9.07 represents the 61%...Let's hope that the 50% holds.

Fundamentally, this one will e governed by whatevet the major hedge (Ansar Mgmt?) decides to do...

Thanks all for providing a great board...let's keep it up


Eric

  EVIL EVIL EVIL   

HAHA!  Lucky I decided to cancel my stop limit (boy, do I have a bad habit or what LOL!!!) 

I'll just ride this puppy for the long term.  This was a stock I wanted to get in at the 2's after seeing it in the ticker streamer everday single morning on CNBC LOL.  It's just gotta do me some good!!

C'mon DIVX, I just sold you this morning to pick you up cheaper.  Come on baby......come to papa!!   

Thai

Quote from: tokyopua on October 24, 2006, 08:58:30 PM
Melf,

0.9% loss, any loss sucks, but gotta applaud your discipline not to take larger losses on a consistent basis!

tok,

Thanks.  Yeah, I try very hard to limit my losses. 

The top of the Ascending Triangle (purple line) "should have been" support.  I tired to play it there, but it wasn't support. 

Quote from: Melf Elf on October 16, 2006, 04:55:20 AM
October 13 - RSIs - Across The Board Sell Signal in GIGM at 11.00 even.

Especially with that RSI Across The Board Sell Signal at 11.00 still in effect, I got out and took the 0.9% loss.  I don't have a problem with trying to make that kind of play.  GIGM was longer-term bullish, and it was reasonable to expect "former resistance to become support."

I'll tell you what I do have a problem with, though.     

With that RSI Across The Board Sell Signal, after the Bearish Rising Wedge gap-filling rally off the 9.05 low, and then this...

Quote from: Melf Elf on October 17, 2006, 05:26:15 AM
GIGM yesterday got caught between the proverbial rock and a hard place.

11.17 was the bottom of the broken Bearish Rising Wedge (ROCK)

11.10 was the high on the day

11.08 was where the down trendline off the 12.55 high came in (HARD PLACE)

...why the heck didn't I go SHORT this danged thing?  Duh-h...     

Geez, where's that Embarrassed Face?  > > > 

That was a very nice risk:reward trade back up there, and GIGM was telegraphing short-term bearishness in both the chart behavior, and in the indicators, as I explained back then. 

We need a STOOPID Face on the toolbar.    

The trade:

Short 11.00. 

Stop above the October 12 high of 11.25.  Target: 9.97, the Top of the Ascending line.

Risk: a loss of 2.3%  Reward: 9.4%, for a better than 1:4 risk:reward.

The top of the Ascending triangle not only didn't hold, as support, it became resistance again   on Thursday: the high got only to 9.98, and to 9.99 on Friday, then GIGM took out Thursday's low, and sold off on Friday, back toward the lows.

That trendline is at least short-term resistance again, and the 14.88 target is ON HOLD.

Quote
Ive been busy lately, but when I didnt sell ASTM yesterday and today when it hit the 200sma, I was reminded again of your trades in GNBT, and how I didnt learn my lesson yet "Sell when targets are made" and to me that was the target.

I know.  Sometimes stocks go a lot higher than the targets, but I've learned to take at least some profits when targets get MADE.

Look at this last long trade in GIGM, for example.  We had 3 upside targets from about 10.83 - 12.10, and the last closing high, at 12.38, was exactly on the top of the Bear Channel (red). 

All 3 targets had MADE.  If we didn't take the profits...GIGM now is at 9.53. 

Quote
Along the lines of these declining stocks, was wondering if I could get a bit of "Melfian Analysis" on the GNBT thread, I got back in today thinking the 200 sma would be support, but, uh, it wasnt.

Also, got in EMFP recently at .8 based on previous candlestick support, I will probalby be stubborn about that stock despite the horrendous chart, but was wondering if you think I could see a rounded bottom out of it? Or anything positive, lol?

Sorry that I didn't get to those, tok.  I try to participate in folders on an "as can" basis, but I can't get to very many of them because I'm too danged tedious when I look at charts, like this one.