3SOF

Terliso;
Do you think it's going to hold and stay around here for a while??

fyi
Yahoo quotation:
SIGA points of review:

1)SIGA-stock surge on 18 October 06 with massive (39,349,000) volume that included institutional investors buying.
SIGA followed with 6 pull back\consolidation days. The time frame of margin selling has past. Friday Oct. 27 the stock market closed all indexes down, the NASDAQ -28.48 roughly. SIGA closed up The same day signaling buying consideration for the coming week.

2)The spark that ingnited SIGA --->SIGA Announces Smallpox Treatment Breakthrough. Video of the breaking news comes out in the news: http://www.kval.com/news/4448787.html
f you have not watched this video you should (check my last posts) Under "Bio Shield" the government may be able to stockpile SIGA-246 without the FDA. The FDA green light for human use may be in 2009.

3)Why the news is important: The money involved--->CEO of SIGA "various industry estimates make it clear that the potential market for smallpox treatments is a lucrative one. It's in the hundreds of millions of dollars, if not more," he said."
According to the Congressional Budget Office, the 5.6 billion under "BIO Shield" will be to acquire drugs against the 5 pathogens,
& in the ammountts, specified below:
Smallpox----->$1.9 billion
Anthrax------>$1.4 billion
Btulinum toxin------>$1.8 billion
Ebola------>$260 million
Plague----->$220 million
SIGA is not just working for a piece of the pie on Smallpox but, is advancing an Ebola effort.
Friday 27 Oct.o6 Advent Financial Update report Gave SIGA a 12 month price target of $10.20 & raised it to "buy" from "neutral" (check my 2nd yahoo quotation)

4)The proposed merger with PharmAthene has been cancelled: SIGA has recently obtained since 2 Aug. 06 $27 million. $16.5 million
grant money from NIH. Siga Pulls Out of PharmAthene Merger based on this feeling SIGA will do better on its own.

5)Next q. earnings: 8-10 November 06 range based on past report release dates. Will SIGA have a good quarter?
CEO: Tom Konatich, who's been with the biotech firm for eight years. "Our balance sheet right now is about as strong as it's been during my tenure."

The answer seems clear SIGA is on the correct path.

If SIGA stock musters enough buying interest to break through $3.80 in the next few days it could set the stage for a very nice rally, back above $5.00
If there is additional news watch out for the break to Advent Financials target of $10.20.


Advent Financial Update:

The fundamental factors that we factor into our analysis and valuation have considerably strengthened for SIGA in recent weeks as a number of important developments took place:

- The proposed merger with PharmAthene has been cancelled thus removing the related uncertainties and unknowns that complicated or prevented a complete analysis of SIGA.

- SIGA-246 fully protected monkeys from a variant of the smallpox virus that it prevented from
becoming infective by blocking the action of a viral enzyme that is necessary for the assembly of an envelope protein (p37) without which the virus is unable to get out of the host (invaded) cells. As a result, the virus becomes trapped inside the cell and is unable to spread to other cells; the virus is no longer infective! This specific viral enzyme is also present in the smallpox virus against which SIGA-246 should also protect. Moreover, the studies in monkeys confirmed the results of earlier studies in rodents in which SIGA-246 fully protected rodents against all varieties of the poxvirus that were tested. SIGA-246 has thus successfully completed both of the efficacy tests required under the "twoanimal rule."

- SIGA-246 appeared safe and to be well tolerated in a Phase I trial on healthy volunteers that was completed in June 2006.

- The Company is now preparing to submit the Phase I trial results to the FDA as part of seeking authorization to proceed with the Phase III trials that are necessary for obtaining the data for statistical proof of efficacy and safety that is required by the FDA.

- The Company has recently obtained close to $21 million in additional funding for completing the development of SIGA-246 and submitting an NDA for it to the FDA.

Factoring the above developments into our valuation model for SIGA and using conservative
assumptions, we now estimate at 80% (up from our previous 35% - see our December 9, 2005 update) the probability that it will be approved in early 2008 and will generate revenues of $400 million and fully diluted EPS of $1.30 in FY09.

Assuming this stock will have a P/E of 10 by the end of FY09, its price will then be $13.00 (fully diluted). To calculate a 12-month Price Target for SIGA, we discount back by two years its future value of $13.00 in FY09 using an annual discount factor of 0.129 that combines the current 3-year, risk-free 4.80 % Treasury yield (source: Bloomberg.com - October 20, 2006) and a 100% - 80% or 20% risk factor. The resulting 12-month Price Target is $10.20. Discounting back by three years, we calculate a risk-adjusted Present Value of $ 9.04 for this stock, up from our previous $4.50 (see Dec 9, 2005 update) for this stock that has traded in the $2.00 to $5.50 range in recent days.

Conclusion
We believe that SIGA may begin selling its first product, the smallpox antiviral SIGA-246 and
achieve EPS of $1.30 on revenues of $406 million in FY09. We raise our rating on SIGA to Buy from Neutral and our 12-month Price Target to $10.20 from our previous No Price Target.

https://secure.reuters.com/ecommerce/Catalog/ReportDetail.aspx?id=38164454&search=

have a nice weekend
Oliver

Please read the 22 slides Advent Financial Report:
http://adventfinancialinc.com/research_reports/SIGA%20Update%2010.pdf

cheers
O.

Thx for the excellent information la-onda! <applaud>

nice day for SIGA 

la-onda thanks for the great post on the 27th. lets hope for a nice run into earnings.

Do you all think this has  bottomed?  I still haven't  boght more. I'm not good at  finding the highs  and lows. I would like to buy more. I thought it was going to take off after yesterdays  run.

Quote from: for3J1M on October 31, 2006, 11:28:11 AM
la-onda thanks for the great post on the 27th. lets hope for a nice run into earnings.

Do you no when they release earnings?

I couldn´t find the exact earning date, SIGA was consolidating today IMO

SIGA was consolidationg today IMO

I just hope we stay in the 3.50 3.60 range and dont drop any lower. Earnings probaly wont make much difference anyhow. What we need is more news on any progress or grants. I bet we would double or more on a good pr.

I agree earnings may not make much difference.  Earnings expectations are not what got SIGA here.  I think SIGA can double without another announcement.  Alot of stocks with a huge piece of news jump up huge then consolidate for 1 to 3 weeks before resuming the climb.  Of course nothing is guaranteed.  An overnight double is a big jump and I'm not surprised it is taking a little while to consolidate.  However I think it is looking good technically.

Good luck,
Jason

10 Q out:

http://biz.yahoo.com/e/061101/siga10-q.html

....
Results of Operations

Three months ended September 30, 2006 and 2005

Revenues from grants and research and development contracts for the three months ended September 30, 2006 and 2005 were $2.0 million and $2.9 million, respectively. For the three months ended September 30, 2006 we recognized $907,000 from NIH SBIR grants supporting two of our lead programs. Revenues from NIH SBIR grants supporting these programs during the same period in 2005 were $2.7 million. $1.1 million of the revenues recognized from these grants and contracts during the three months ended September 30, 2005, related to expenditures that SIGA incurred during the quarter ended June 30, 2005, prior to approval of the second year of these grants. The decline of $1.8 million was partially offset by an increase of $834,000 in revenues recognized in connection with a $3.2 million, one year contract with USAMRMC. The agreement, for the rapid identification and treatment of anti-viral diseases, was entered into on September 22, 2005 and is funded through the USAF (the "USAF Agreement"). The decline was also offset by $119,000 recorded in connection with a $500,000, one year, Phase I SBIR grant from the NIH to support the development of our Bacterial Commensal Vector technology for the delivery of smallpox vaccine, ending on February 28, 2007. On August 30, 2006, we received a three year, $6.0 million award from the NIH to support the development of our antiviral drugs for Lassa fever virus. On August 1, 2006, we received a three year, $4.8 million SBIR Phase II continuation grant from the NIH to support the development of our smallpox drug candidate, SIGA-246. On September 26, 2006, we entered into a three year, $16.5 million contract with the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases of the NIH, to further advance the development of our smallpox drug candidate. Revenues from these new grants and contracts will be recognized as services are performed.

Selling, general and administrative expenses ("SG&A") were $802,000 and $415,000 for the three months ended September 30, 2006, and 2005, respectively. The increase of $387,000 or 93% is primarily due to legal and accounting expenses of $258,000 incurred during the three months ended September 30, 2006 in connection with our merger agreement with PHTN which was terminated in October 2006, and a credit of $200,000 in legal expenses recorded during the same period in 2005. The increase in legal and accounting fees were partially offset by a decline of $100,000 in payroll expenses from the quarter ended September 30, 2005.

Research and development expenses ("R&D") increased $391,000 or 22% from $1.8 million for the three months ended September 30, 2005 to $2.2 million for the three months ended September 30, 2006. The increase is primarily due to $345,000 incurred during the three months ended September 30, 2006 under our agreement with the USAF and an increase of $200,000 in payroll expenses related to the expansion of the Company's research and development work force. In addition, on April 1, 2006, we completed the renovation of a new laboratory space in Corvallis, Oregon. Depreciation expense and lab supplies expenditures for the three months ended September 30, 2006, increased by $220,000 and $105,000, respectively, from the same period in 2005. These increases were partially offset by a decline of $80,000 in amortization expense and a decline of $375,000 in expenditures related to two of our lead programs.

During the three months ended September 30, 2006, and 2005 we invested $442,000 and $600,000, respectively, in the development of our lead drug candidate, SIGA-246, an orally administered anti-viral drug that targets the smallpox virus. For the three months ended September 30, 2006, we invested $176,000 in our internal development resources and $266,000 on external manufacturing and clinical testing activities. For the three months ended September 30, 2005, we invested $168,000 in our internal development resources and $464,000 in pre-clinical testing of SIGA-246. From inception of the SIGA-246 development program to-date, we have invested $5.9 million related to this initiative, of which $1.4 million and $4.5 million were spent on internal development resources, and clinical and pre-clinical work, respectively. These resources reflect SIGA's research and development expenses directly related to the program. They exclude additional expenditures such as the cost to acquire the program, patent costs, allocation of indirect expenses, and the value of other services received from the NIH and the Department of Defense ("DoD").

$326,000 and $349,000 of our R&D expenses during the three months ended September 30, 2006 and 2005, respectively, were used to support the development of ST-294, a drug candidate which has demonstrated significant antiviral activity in cell culture assays against arenavirus pathogens. For the three months ended September 30, 2006,

we invested $110,000 in internal development resources and $216,000 in pre-clinical testing. For the three months ended September 30, 2005, we spent $189,000 on internal human resources and $160,000 on pre-clinical testing of ST-294. From inception of the ST-294 development program to-date, we have spent a total of $2.8 million related to this program, of which $1.5 million and $1.3 million were expended on internal human resources and pre-clinical work, respectively. These resources reflect SIGA's research and development expenses directly related to the program. They exclude additional expenditures such as the cost to acquire the program, patent costs, allocation of indirect expenses, and the value of other services received from the NIH and the DoD.

R&D expenses related to our USAF Agreement were $172,000 and $360,000 for internal human resources and external R&D services, respectively, during the three months ended September 30, 2006. During the same period in 2005, we spent $26,000 and $16,000 on internal human resources and external R&D services, respectively. Costs related to our work on the USAF Agreement, during the term of the agreement to-date were $1.7 million, of which we spent $717,000 and $903,000 on internal human resources and external R&D services, respectively. These resources reflect SIGA's research and development expenses directly related to this agreement. They exclude additional expenditures such as patent costs and allocation of indirect expenses.

Patent preparation expenses for the three months ended September 30, 2006 and 2005 were $36,000 and $8,000, respectively.

A gain of $351,000 was recorded during the three months ended September 30, 2006, reflecting the decline in fair market value of common stock rights and common stock warrants sold in November 2005, from June 30, 2006 to September 30, 2006. The warrants and rights to purchase common stock of SIGA were recorded at fair market value and classified as liabilities at the time of the transaction.

Other expenses, net, were $48,000 for the three months ended September 30, 2006 primarily reflecting interest expense related to the three $1.0 million notes payable to PHTN. During the same period in 2005 we recorded net other income of $2,000.

Our product programs are in the early stage of development. At this stage of development, we cannot make reasonable estimates of the potential cost for most of our programs to be completed or the time it will take to complete the project. Our lead product, SIGA-246, is an orally administered anti-viral drug that targets the smallpox virus. In December 2005 the FDA accepted our IND application for SIGA-246 and granted it Fast-Track status. Fast Track programs of the FDA are designed to facilitate the development and expedite the review of new drugs that are intended to treat serious or life-threatening conditions and that demonstrate the potential to address unmet medical needs.

We expect that costs to complete our SIGA-246 program will approximate $15 million to $20 million, and that the project could be completed in 12 months to 36 months. There is a high risk of non-completion of any program, including SIGA-246, because of the lead time to program completion and uncertainty of the costs. Net cash inflows from any products developed from our programs are at least one to three years away. However, we could receive additional grants, contracts or technology licenses in the short-term. The potential cash and timing is not known and we cannot be certain if they will ever occur.

The risk of failure to complete any program is high, as each, other than our smallpox program that entered phase I clinical trials in 2006, is in the relatively early stage of development. Products for the biological warfare defense market, such as the SIGA-246 smallpox anti-viral, could generate revenues in one to three years. We believe the products directed toward this market are on schedule. We expect the future research and development cost of our biological warfare defense programs to increase as the potential products enter animal studies and safety testing, including human safety trials. Funds for future development will be partially paid for by NIH SBIR grants, the contract we have with the U.S. Army, additional government funding and from future financing. If we are unable to obtain additional federal grants and contracts or funding in the required amounts, the development timeline for these products will slow or possibly be suspended. Delay or suspension of any of our programs could have an adverse impact on our ability to raise funds in the future, enter into collaborations with corporate partners or obtain additional federal funding from contracts or grants.

Nine months ended September 30, 2006 and 2005

Revenues from grants and research and development contracts for the nine months ended September 30, 2006 and 2005 were $4.9 million and $6.2 million, respectively. Revenues recorded for the nine months ended September 30,

2006 declined $1.3 million or 22% from the same period in the prior year. For the nine months ended September 30, 2006 we recorded $2.2 million from NIH SBIR grants and an agreement with Saint Louis University, supporting two of our lead programs. Revenues from NIH SBIR grants supporting these programs during the same period in 2005 were $5.6 million. The decline of $3.4 million was partially offset by $2.1 million of revenues recognized in connection with our $3.2 million, one year contract with USAMRMC. The agreement, for the rapid identification and treatment of anti-viral diseases, was entered into on September 22, 2005 and is funded through the USAF. The decline was also offset by $278,000 recorded in connection with a $500,000, one year, Phase I SBIR grant from the NIH to support the development of our Bacterial Commensal Vector technology for the delivery of smallpox vaccine, ending on February 28, 2007. On August 30, 2006, we received a three year, $6.0 million award from the NIH to support the development of our antiviral drugs for Lassa fever virus. On August 1, 2006, we received a three year, $4.8 million SBIR Phase II continuation grant from the NIH to support the development of our smallpox drug candidate, SIGA-246. On September 26, 2006, we entered into a three year, $16.5 million contract with the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases of the NIH, to further advance the development of our smallpox drug candidate. Revenues from these new grants and contracts will be recognized as services are performed.

Selling, general and administrative expenses ("SG&A") for the nine months ended September 30, 2006 and 2005 were $3.2 million and $2.1 million, respectively. The increase of $1.1 million or 56% is mainly attributed to professional fees and non-cash consulting charge recorded for the nine months ended September 30, 2006, and a credit of $200,000 in legal expenses recorded during the same period in 2005. During the nine months ended September 30, 2006 we recorded legal, accounting and consulting expenses of $752,000, $164,000 and $82,000, respectively, for due diligence services, fairness opinion and legal . . .

I was worried about the drop now it looks like it will stabalize. I bought more at 3.25

Quote from: Terliso link=topic=2905.msg75294#msg75294 date=1161972009
-- Half of the candle from last week (weekly chart) @ 2.90 is the best entry point
quote]

hopefully thats as close to 2.90 as we get. good call terliso!  alvin58 did you buy more?

Rumor is that there is a contract in the workings soon !!!!!