3SOF

BBC stays in a tight range, earnings are at 15 Nov!

http://biz.yahoo.com/pz/061102/107984.html


They also filed a Form 8-K yesterday but not much news on that!
http://biz.yahoo.com/e/061102/bbc8-k.html

Looks like we're getting some play in our BBC.  The volume already is equal to 100-day average volume, so the run rate is at least two times ADV, even if interest subsides a bit. 

It's nice to see that buyers are willing to step in, ahead of earnings.

A close above the 50MA would be sweet!
Do you have a target in mind Melf Elf or are you planning to ride it through earnings?

Quote from: Se7en on November 06, 2006, 12:02:33 PM
A close above the 50MA would be sweet!

Se7en,

Yes, that would be nice.  We haven't had one of those in three months.

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Do you have a target in mind Melf Elf

I don't have a pattern target, but I'm thinking at least 11.50, then 13-ish.

My play in BBC is a rare exception for me, because I'm playing it primarily on the fundamentals, but also on the improved technicals, per my post when I bought it.

Back in May, when BBC was at 11.18, one of our 3SOF members named yukiii gave a very nice presentation on BBC's fundamentals, which I liked very much.  I didn't like the chart at all, though. 

I kept an eye on it and decided to go ahead and "take a flyer" on the pullback after Aussie's nice white candle on October 18, when the technicals looked to have improved a bit.

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or are you planning to ride it through earnings?

Yes, I've grown some fingernails, so I have something to chew on through earnings.   

I'll hold.  My stop is below 8.11.  I would sell at the market price if BBC is called to gap down below that at earnings (or at any other time, for that matter).

2X average 100 day volume is 518,000 shares.  Today's volume, a little ahead of the close, is 545,000 shares, and BBC is up about 12%, and holding most of the gains.  That's a nice day for BBC.

Quote from: Melf Elf on November 06, 2006, 03:55:42 PM
2X average 100 day volume is 518,000 shares.  Today's volume, a little ahead of the close, is 545,000 shares, and BBC is up about 12%, and holding most of the gains.  That's a nice day for BBC.

Yeah, with a nice close! 

Yes nice day. I sold 1/3rd of my position at the 50sma area just as an insurance against it proving too tough a resistance point. A close above 50sma on decent volume should provide continuation momentum. Melf I hope this 'unusual play' for you is working out OK

Quote from: Se7en on November 06, 2006, 04:51:44 PM
Yeah, with a nice close! 

Se7en,

It sure was, and I especially liked seeing some volume come in.  Last Thursday and Friday were only 91,000 and 100,000 share days.

Quote from: AussieTrader on November 06, 2006, 10:31:45 PM
Yes nice day. I sold 1/3rd of my position at the 50sma area just as an insurance against it proving too tough a resistance point. A close above 50sma on decent volume should provide continuation momentum.

Aussie,

I like those "insurance" plays.   

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Melf I hope this 'unusual play' for you is working out OK

Thanks, Aussie.  It's going better than I expected.  Knock on wood, and all of that. 

We got minor violations of the bottom of our channel, on October 25, 26, and 27, so I figured that we might be in for a gap fill of 8.77-8.95.  All three of those candles, however, were little Bullish Inverted Hammers, and BBC hung onto the bottom of the channel, then rallied yesterday. 

I like that.

I view it as more bullish if the 8.77-8.95 gap doesn't get filled, indicated that traders are shut out from having the stock that cheaply again.

My only expectation out of earnings is that they not trash BBC for THIRD time. 

After the May Day crash...

May was an earnings TRIPLE.  BBC got trashed from 15.20 to 8.11.

August was an earnings DOUBLE.  BBC got trashed from 14.65 to the recent 8.40.

As we've all discussed,  that crashing and trashing has nothing to do with the fundamentals, but has everything to do with the fact that we're dealing with three groups of angry Bulls who are trapped at higher prices. 

Even if BBC reports an earnings QUADRUPLE next week, we still have to work off that overhang of supply as we go into end-of-year tax loss selling.

What "could' millitate against a lot of selling would be if BBC rallies, then stabilizes going into the end of the year.   Bulls who got in at higher prices might then be encouraged to hang onto their stock, going into 2007.

We'll see.  I'm not expecting much for the remainder of the year, so anything more on the upside would be a nice surprise.

Good luck, everybody!

Good day for BBC!

Pre earnings run shaping up by the looks. A nice reaction off the 50sma BBC has taken back all it lost in that 4 day end Sept sell off. Technically I'd like to see it break and hold $10.82 and then I wouldn't be surprised to see it in mid $12's before Wednesday. The real interesting thing though will be what happens after earnings. History would suggest sell off, chart (to me at least) suggests recovery.

Looks good Aussie,

I like the new look
Super Speculator with a little flare of red!

How about another applauds to your already huge amount

Keep listening, And keep gettin paid!

-fous

After yesterday's "Gap To Crap" Reversal in GIGM on the reporting of earnings, I thought I'd better post my earnings strategy for BBC, in case this site is down again when earnings come out (must be terribly frustrating for David and Frederick!).

I responded to Se7en that I will hold into earnings, and that I would sell at the market price if BBC gaps down below my 8.11 stop.

I also will sell at the market price if BBC has a huge gap up on earnings, like GIGM did yesterday.  There is a boat load of resistance overhead from the May Day Crash, as well as from the last two "Gaps To Crap" at May and August earnings, which both were good, just like GIGM's earnings were yesterday. 

Technically, I have difficulty envisioning any big gap up as a "Gap And Go."  It "could be," but I'll play it for a "Gap To Crap," and I'll sell into strength.

Quote from: Melf Elf on November 07, 2006, 04:53:59 AM
Even if BBC reports an earnings QUADRUPLE next week, we still have to work off that overhang of supply as we go into end-of-year tax loss selling.

I shouldn't have said that.  GIGM's Q3 net nearly QUADRUPLED. 

Market Response to GIGM: "Gap To Crap Reversal." 

Good luck, everybody!

Quote

Quote from: Melf Elf on October 20, 2006, 05:59:07 AM
Bullish Scenario:

1. The Gap Up Island Reversal, back into the Channel, looks bullish.

2. We have a flat top in place for an Ascending Triangle, at 10.82 - 10.80

3. Now go down and re-test the bottom of the channel that was broken, and establish that, "Yes, it's support this time," while at the same time, establishing a "higher low" for the ascending line of the Ascending Triangle.

4. Go up and knock out 10.82- 10.80, putting Target: 13.20 IN PLAY.

Math:

High: 10.80 (I always use the more conservative of the two highs

Low: 8.40

10.80 - 8.40 = 2.40 points, added to 10.80 = Target: 13.20

Then continue to act bullish...bullish...bullish 

That Bullish Scenario that we looked at the morning we bought BBC has played out beautifully.

We established support at the bottom rail of the channel (refer to the chart in my last post to see that), then  an Ascending Triangle did, in fact, form, and we're poised right at the top of it, champing at the bit for an upside breakout, heading into earnings.

Very nice.

We broke out "technically," on Friday, printing 10.84, but didn't hold it on a close, although it was nice to see BBC hang onto most of the day's gains.

Quote from: AussieTrader on November 10, 2006, 01:29:25 AM
Technically I'd like to see it break and hold $10.82 and then I wouldn't be surprised to see it in mid $12's before Wednesday.

Yeah, the pattern is there alright, Aussie, so this could run some into earnings if we get a solid breakout above the 10.80s on Monday or Tuesday, in anticipation of good earnings.

If it rallies into to earnings, then gaps up anywhere near our 13.20 that would be IN PLAY, I'll sell some or all of my position into it.

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The real interesting thing though will be what happens after earnings. History would suggest sell off, chart (to me at least) suggests recovery.

Right.  I'm thinking a selloff on anything "gappy" near the target, or near the 200DMA (about 12.79) then a pullback for a re-entry.  Or, gap up to 12.79...run to/near the 13.20 target... then fizzle...

Just conjecture, or course.  Fun to watch, huh?

I don't know if BBC reports before or after the bell (or during the session), but we only have two or three days of trading at the most for BBC to rally hard toward the 13.20 target on a breakout Monday, then to have a "Sell The News" response to earnings.

We'll have to see how the chart stands at Tuesday's close.  Right now, it looks prett-ty! 

My favorite scenario would be for BBC to selloff a little Monday and Tuesday.  Two little Black Candles, like the two that finished this last Wednesday with a tag of the 8-Day Tenkan-sen (solid green line) and a close at the 50 DMA.

Then at release of earnings...

"BBC is called higher...indicated at BID 10.85...ASK 10.90"

Oooo-ooo...a BREAKAWAY GAP out of the Ascending Triangle, but not a big one.  Then a nice heavy volume SUSTAINED rally, that doesn't fizzle, encouraging our 3 groups of Angry Bulls to stay long through end-of the-year tax loss selling.

It doesn't hurt to fantasize, does it?    

Hmmmmm 

This no doubt will cause downward pressure for Monday. Results will still be released, but conf call won't. Can't decide if this is just an admin type of thing that presents a dip buy opportunity or whether it is just another issue that keeps plaguing BBC adding another group of Melf's depressed bulls.

Hmmmm indeed...

Bodisen Biotech Receives a Letter From American Stock Exchange
Sunday November 12, 11:00 pm ET
Company Postpones Q3 Earnings Conference Call

SHAANXI, China, Nov. 12, 2006 (PRIMEZONE) -- Bodisen Biotech, Inc. (AMEX:BBC - News), (London:BODI.L - News), (http://www.bodisen.com), today announced that, on November 6, 2006, the Company received a letter from the American Stock Exchange (``Amex'') stating that the Staff had determined that the Company was not in compliance with certain of the Amex continued listing standards, specifically Sections 132(a), 132(e), and 403 of the Amex Company Guide, and need to be improved in the future.

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Among other things, Amex believes that the Company made insufficient or inaccurate disclosure in its public filings with regard to its relationship with, and payments to, a consultancy firm and its affiliates both prior to and subsequent to its listing on the Amex. Additionally, in the context of the Company's relationship with the consultancy firm, Amex expressed concern that the Company has internal control issues related to its accounting and financial reporting obligations. Prior to receipt of the letter from Amex, the Company publicly announced that it had terminated its relationship with the consultancy firm.

To meet Amex requirements, the Company intends to submit a plan to Amex indicating what actions it has taken and will take to bring the Company into compliance with the Amex Continued Listing Standards. If the plan is accepted, the Company will continue its cooperation with Amex during the plan period, during which time it will be subject to periodic review to determine whether it is making progress consistent with the plan.

``We value our Amex listing and we intend to ensure that we maintain that listing,'' said Karen Qiong Wang, Chairwoman and CEO of Bodisen Biotech. ``We are working diligently to communicate and work cooperatively with the American Stock Exchange to resolve their concerns as quickly as possible.''

The Company also announced that, accordingly we will need to communicate with Amex and will file its Form 10-QSB for the third quarter ended September 30, 2006 on time, it is postponing its previously scheduled November 15, 2006 conference call. After the Company has resolved its Amex compliance issue, the Company will have the conference call

Quote from: AussieTrader on November 13, 2006, 04:56:59 AM
Hmmmm indeed...

Aussie,

Yes, Hmmmm, indeed!

Quote
Amex expressed concern that the Company has internal control issues related to its accounting and financial reporting obligations. Prior to receipt of the letter from Amex, the Company publicly announced that it had terminated its relationship with the consultancy firm.

I don't know what to make of that. 

Is the emphasis on "financial reporting obligations," meaning that BBC only has to do a bunch of paper work, and get it over to the AMEX, or is the emphasis on "internal contol issues related to its accounting," possibly meaning that the great earnings that have been reported aren't as great as they appeared to be?

Just when the chart was looking sooo-oo good, too! 

Curses!   

Quote
Can't decide if this is just an admin type of thing that presents a dip buy opportunity or whether it is just another issue that keeps plaguing BBC adding another group of Melf's depressed bulls.

Exactly.

Curses!!   

I appreciate your posting this news, Aussie.  Applaud.   I'll have to give this a think over before the open, and decide whether or not I want to hold.