3SOF

Just got into divx at 23.63. This one looks like its going to rebound some more even if the market is doing bad.

Quote from: Melf Elf on October 31, 2006, 02:03:11 PM

The Bull Flag was violated intraday, but looked fine at yesterday's close.  This morning...

Oops!  "Buy the rumor...sell the news."

Same response to good news today.

Quote
Pattern #4:  If this is a gap-filling Right Shoulder rally,

We got a morning partial gap-filling rallying on the the analysts' upgrades, then  "sell the good news" again.   A lot of the selling likely is on the part of those who got caught in the channel and didn't sell, prior to yesterday's gap down.

That's known as "technical selling," i.e. "We don't care about the upgrades.  We had a paper loss on the gap down to 22.05, and we have a chance to get out even on the analysts' upgrades.  We want out."

Quote
a neckline break is 22.04 (the Left Shoulder would be the entire Ascending Triangle...the Head would be the Bull Flag (which we now know wasn't Bullish).

Further confirmation today, that the Bull Flag/Bull Channel wasn't Bullish.  It was resistance this morning.

Today's selloff, and maybe a little tomorrow, could be enough to work off that overhang off sellers in the channel, but the rally this moring also put in a "possible" Right Shoulder, and there isn't much room between today's 22.75 close, and 22.05 support.

Quote
A break of 22.05 would put a target of 17.36 IN PLAY

Again, that target doesn't seem realistic, but DIVX has sold off twice now, on good news.   A break of the DOUBLE stop (explained in yesterrday's post) at 22.05 could bring in some more technical selling, having nothing to do with the fundamentals. 

Update:
Some good news pushed DIVX to fill the gap during the morning:
- DivX Seen Benefiting From Online Video Boom
- Coverage initiated on DivX by JP Morgan, Cowen & Co and Canaccord Adams

Although, today the market wasn't for great moves on stocks like DIVX, with the Nasdaq closing down -1.37%, DIVX lost all of its day gains and closed the session slightly negative. With the Nasdaq on corrective mode, we may have a longer period of consolidation for DIVX here...

Trading Plan:
Hold DIVX

Best regards,

This chart is messing with my head a bit  ... It appears as though a new trend line (think blue line) can be drawn with the double bottom as the 4th point on it.  The support at 22.05 has been drawn in.  Is the old resistance at 24.00 the top of an ascending triangle or has a pennant formation been formed or what?... not really sure how to read it or if it's even possible to.  All I know is the price action today wasn't great 

Quote from: dwest718 on November 02, 2006, 04:11:20 AM
This chart is messing with my head a bit  ...

dwest,

Welcome to the club!  Charts always try to mess with my head.

Quote
It appears as though a new trend line (think blue line) can be drawn with the double bottom as the 4th point on it.  The support at 22.05 has been drawn in.

The important thing is,  what did the market respond to.? The solid blue trendline, or to 22.05?

Your blue trendline came in on October 31 at about 21.91.

The low of the Symmetrical Triangle on the intraday chart, that traders will use for a stop, was 22.05 .

The market clearly responded to the latter, because the October 31 low was 22.05 exactly.

If 22.05 had gotten broken, and the market then bounced near your 20.91 trendline, your blue trendline would have much more significance.  We won't rule it out, but we know for sure that it wasn't what was operative on October 31.  Players knew that 22.05 was "a stop buster," and they lined up right there at 22.05, and bought it.  That's confirmation, that 22.05 was important.

Now look at the red up trendline, beginning with the first day of trading.  There were FIVE hits to that trendline, numbered in green.  Hits #3, #4 and #5 are validations that the trendline connecting #1 and #2 is valid, as support. 

"Yes, that's support."  "Yess-, that's support!"  "YES, that's support!"

Generally, when solid support like that gets broken, it has some significance, and we saw that it did.  The trendline was violated intraday on October 30 (WARNING!), but DIVX scrambled back above it into the close.

Technically, when DIVX gapped down on October 31, we can see why it became a question of how far   is it going to gap down, because that was an important trendline break.

The pattern in red is a Bearish Rising Wedge, numbered 1 through 4 in red.  It isn't uncommon for Bearish Rising wedges to "morph" into Bearish H&S Tops, which is why I discussed that possibility over the past couple of days, and the possible importance of  the 22.05 neckline. 

Quote
Is the old resistance at 24.00 the top of an ascending triangle or has a pennant formation been formed or what?... not really sure how to read it or if it's even possible to.  All I know is the price action today wasn't great 

I don't see anything significant about 24.00, but I could be missing something.

The blue down trendline off the 26.74 high has only two data points, so we don't know if it has any significance, or not.  It comes in today, November 2, at 25.0133.  Should DIVX rally to that trendline, and fail, that trendline would be validated as resistance.

Hope that helped a little.  Good luck!

Thanks melf 

That was a lesson, an answer, and some analysis all posted in one. 

Update:
No special developments here, DIVX has been trading around $23 with low volume for the past two sessions. We'll continue to hold this position.

Trading Plan:
Hold DIVX

Best regards,

Update:
DIVX showing a little of its power, with a nice +8.5% advance
I'll try not to practise more short term TA here, since our position was bought just on the 4th session after the IPO, the technicals were never behind this trade.
I keep my opinion, disregarding any classic FA or TA, that DIVX is cheap at these prices, the company could also be a takeover candidate by some major tech player, and I trust the DivX concept as a consumer.

Trading Plan:
Hold DIVX

Best regards,

Update:
DIVX had a nice start on Tuesday's session, trading once again above $26, but failing to hold those levels. That candle doesn't look good, but once again, we are not much concerned with this short term volatility yet.

Trading Plan:
Hold DIVX

Best regards,

Pulled the old double top and drop again yesterday.  Planned on selling on the double top (above 26.23) but missed it because I didn't have the chance to set a sell order before I took a quick lunch.  Hope it rebounds a bit tomorrow 

New Territory  . Hit $26.80.

uc.

Just broke out briefly to new all time highs at 26.92 on Casio news:

--------------------------------------------------------------------
The EXILIM(R) Card EX-S770D Provides High Quality DivX Video

          Capture Interoperable with Millions of Devices
SAN DIEGO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--November 08, 2006--

 DivX, Inc. (NASDAQ:DIVX) announced today that Casio will introduce a new
model to its line of DivX Certified digital still cameras in Europe. The DivX
Certified Casio EXILIM(R) Card EX-S770D model will be available online
throughout Europe in November.


 The new model is a successor to the popular EX-S600D, the first DivX
Certified camera from Casio. The EX-S770D improves on its predecessor by
increasing the megapixel count to 7.2 and allowing for video capture in a
wide-format movie function (16:9 aspect ratio) that combines with DivX
functionality to create breath-taking video.


 In addition, the Casio EXILIM(R) EX-S770D camera allows consumers to easily
access the interoperable DivX ecosystem, to play, create and share high-quality
video content across a range of devices and platforms. This includes DVD
players, recorders and portable media players. Content created on the camera
can be played on all PCs with DivX software installed and on DivX Certified
consumer electronics devices from the world's leading brands.


 "I am very excited about the release of our new EXILIM(R) Card EX-S770D
digital camera, which features the outstanding DivX technology that users
appreciated so much in its predecessor, the EX-S600D," said Susumu Takashima,
director at Casio and head of the Digital Camera Unit. "Casio's card-sized
digital cameras are designed to deliver high performance in a compact, slim
shape, and have been very well received by the market. Users are making the
most of our cameras to take not only still images, but movies as well, all with
the greatest of ease. Our latest card-sized model takes movies in DivX(R)
format, and is being marketed in Europe where DivX is extremely popular.
Compared to previous models, the EX-S770D also has a larger display. We look
forward to countless users experiencing the joy of taking and viewing both
still shots and movies."


 "By expanding their line of DivX Certified digital cameras, Casio is giving
consumers the ability to create very high quality video that they can
experience in a truly open and interoperable way," said Jim Geison, Vice
President of Worldwide Sales, DivX. "Users of the EX-S770D can easily share and
distribute their personal content across a wide range of devices, an advantage
that is not offered by other digital video technologies that are confined to
the PC."


 Products that bear the DivX Certified logo have undergone a rigorous testing
program to ensure interoperability, security and visual quality. DivX Certified
products enable consumers to create, play and share high-quality video content
across a range of devices and platforms. Over 50 million DivX Certified devices
from a variety of manufacturers have shipped worldwide.


 For more information on DivX Certification, visit
http://www.divx.com/certification. To learn more about DivX Certified Casio
cameras, please visit http://www.divx.com/casio-digital-camera.
------------------------------------------------------------

As Rams mentioned earlier in the thread, imagine what would happen if the video Ipods were DivX certified  

Quote from: tokyopua on November 08, 2006, 10:07:13 AM
Just broke out briefly to new all time highs at 26.92 on Casio news:

--------------------------------------------------------------------
The EXILIM(R) Card EX-S770D Provides High Quality DivX Video


As Rams mentioned earlier in the thread, imagine what would happen if the video Ipods were DivX certified 

A friend just called me a few minutes ago asking: «shall I sell my DIVX today ?» 
And my reply was: «does the iPod has a DivX stamp already ? or the DivX Stamp has an apple on it?»   

Once again, I dont know much what could happen short term, but I think the potential is still HUGE at this point... This kind of news are pushing DivX higher, not because of the news itself, but because of the big picture: DivX concept is spreading around the tech world... soon, everything on the media world will require a DivX stamp... not to say, that i'd really love to have an iPod, and I can't buy it yet because it doesnt support DivX 

have a nice tarding day guys

regards,

Just broke through top of ascending trough at 27.67.  Should really keep on going now   Will post chart when I get the chance.  Hope it close near the highs!!

How do you calculate how far it could potentially go up after the breakout.  I know there are percentages and ratios involved but I'm not sure which ones.  Could someone help me out?

Does anyone agree with the use of Andrews Pitchfork for DIVX?  First time I've really tried using this chart tool.

I think we may print 30 very very soon.  I think at the top of the pitchfork is where I'll secure my profits on this trade.  GO DIVX!

Notice how we're above the median line.   

Thai