3SOF

Quote from: Melf Elf on November 11, 2006, 02:49:08 PM
Frederick, Jody and Maxi,

I didn't see anything on Frederick's link, other than a sign up for something.  Could one of you give me a thumbnail summary.  Something like:

"You're totally screwed in your long position, Melf" would do.   

TIA

Hi Melf,

You must have something blocking your browser, like some firewall software, etc... you can see that video here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EQxI4bI09Nc&eurl=

regards,

Quote from: Ramsburg on November 12, 2006, 12:55:05 AM
You must have something blocking your browser, like some firewall software, etc...

Frederick,

Yeah, I got this message at your link:

"Hello, you either have JavaScript turned off or an old version of Macromedia's Flash Player. Get the latest flash player."

I don't know what those things are, so I'm leaving it alone.  I'm dangerous to myself and others if I try to do anything with a computer, other than "click." 

Maxi explained to me what the message was.  Thanks for your help, guys.  Applauds. 

If it weren't for that UGLY "Gap To Crap" Volume Reversal candle on earnings, the judges would score GIGM a Perfect 10 for Technical Merit.  No question, the scores have to be marked down for that.

As the chart stands...

Scores for Technical Merit...





...8.0...8.5...9.0...8.0...8.5...8.5... 



Here's why: Other than that Big Volume Reversal Candle, this is a beautiful chart!


After the October 4 Smackdown, in sympathy with the sector:

1. Bearish Rising Wedge Rally to Resistance - BEARISH

2. RSI Across The Board Sell Signal, at 11.00 - BEARISH

3. Broke back below the top of the May-September Ascending Triangle - BEARISH

Then what?

1. Put in a Double Bottom, at 9.09. - Possibly BULLISH

2. Formed a Bullish Inverse H&S (Blue Circles), best seen on an intraday chart.  Neckline at 9.98-9.99, which also was the top of the Ascending Triangle resistance.  Possibly BULLISH, on a breakout.

3. Broke out of the Bullish Inverse H&S pattern on November 6, putting 10.89 IN PLAY.  BULLISH

4. Broke out of the (blue) Symmetical Triangle (Descending Triangle, if you will), also on November 6, so it was a DOUBLE breakout.  BULLISH

5. November 7, the 10.89 target MADE.  BULLISH

6. November 10, after the Big "Gap To Crap" Volume Reversal, the early morning "spike" low was right at DOUBLE pattern support.  TRIPLE pattern support, if we count the neckline of the "mini" Bullish Inverse H&S of October 25 - November 3.  BULLISH

7. Nice intraday patterns on Friday, that I posted.  Okay, Scotsman, I "over-posted."    Potentially BULLISH

8. The 8-Day Tenkan sen (solid green line) made a Bullish Cross above the 22-day Kijun sen (solid red line) BULLISH

9. The 8-Day Kijun-sen is at 10.62.  Friday's high at 10.62 tagged it, and GIGM held most of the day's gains.  The Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart is "in gear," and GIGM is poised to rally above it.  Possibly BULLISH

10. GIGM not only is above the May-September Ascending Triangle, it tagged it at Friday's "spike" low and bounced, confirming it as support this time (unlike the October 24 failure), so 14.88 still is IN PLAY.  BULLISH

Other than that Big Volume Reversal Candle at earnings, which could end up being the stock's undoing, I realize, GIGM would score Perfect 10s on Technical Merit for its performance since the November 6 breakout.

My risk from my 9.91 entry, to find out if GIGM really is this BULLISH, is about break even on the trade, unless it gaps down on me.

I will sell 25% of the position if I get a print of 10.33, as explained on Friday, which will give me a 4.3% gain on that portion.  On the remaining 75%, I'll give it a few pennies below Friday's 9.88 low for some "wiggle room" in case it needs a quick DOUBLE re-test of trendline support because of that Big "Gap To Crap" Volume Reversal Candle (it's got to work that off, somehow), but I can't justify staying in it much below the mid-9.80s, so I'll sell the remaining 75% for a 1% loss, or a bit less than that.  Result would be a little better than break even.

The work was done, below that 9.98-9.99 neckline of the "mini" Inverse H&S pattern.  I won't sit through a lot of sloppiness, going back down there much into the 9.80s, when that structural work already has been completed.

I also will "sell into strength" some portion of the postion if we get the targets IN PLAY between 10.79-11.12.  Although the chart looks very BULLISH, I expect some backing and filling, to work off that "Gap To Crap" Volume Reversal candle.

On March 23, 2006, GIGM had a Big "Gap To Crap" Volume Reversal, on 8 million shares, roughly the same volume as Thursday's candle.

The next day, GIGM found support at the 5.43 gap, similar to GIGM finding DOUBLE pattern support on Friday, November 10.  The low of March 24 was 5.44.

Two days later, GIGM took out the 6.36 high of the "Gap To Crap" candle, and went on to score a high of 10.79, before the break of the Bearish Rising Wedge after May earnings.

That's pretty unusal to see a Big "Gap To Crap' Volume Reversal candle get taken out to the upside like that, and especially so quickly, but like GIGM in the current time-frame, "the chart work was done," and an upside target was IN PLAY.

That doesn't mean, of course, that history will repeat here, or repeat exactly,  but I wouldn't mind if it rhymed a little. 

Quote from: Melf Elf on November 12, 2006, 06:12:28 AM
I will sell 25% of the position if I get a print of 10.33, as explained on Friday, which will give me a 4.3% gain on that portion.

Sold 25% of the position at 10.33.  Gain: 4.3%

Quote
On the remaining 75%, I'll give it a few pennies below Friday's 9.88 low for some "wiggle room" in case it needs a quick DOUBLE re-test of trendline support because of that Big "Gap To Crap" Volume Reversal Candle (it's got to work that off, somehow), but I can't justify staying in it much below the mid-9.80s, so I'll sell the remaining 75% for a 1% loss, or a bit less than that.  Result would be a little better than break even.

That plan remains the same.

Quote
I also will "sell into strength" some portion of the postion if we get the targets IN PLAY between 10.79-11.12. 

I'll look to sell another 25% in the target area, if I get it, and hold the remaining 50%.

Quote

Applauds on trading the plan melf 

Quote from: ScottishTrader on November 13, 2006, 03:53:35 PM
Applauds on trading the plan melf

Thank you, Scotsman.  I appreciate that. 

Quote from: Melf Elf on November 10, 2006, 11:51:42 AM
The low of the Left Shoulder of Pattern #2 is 10.25.  This morning's reaction low off the second data point on the 10.39 neckline, also is 10.25.  That's the bottom of the Right Shoulder of Pattern #1, as well.

I'll sell 25% of the position on a print of 10.24, which would severely weaken the case for the DOUBLE Bullish Inverse H&S patterns

As it turns out, I would have been better off (so far...), leaving the stop at a print of 10.24.

But, I needed to sell the 10.33 in order to structure the trade properly, so that I come out of it at least with some "lunch money."



We'll see how this plays out.  Fascinating trade.  I feel like I'm riding one of those "Rhinestone Cowboy" broncos that were so popular in neighborhood saloons awhile back.

While my 10.34 got busted today, the 10.25 held up.  Today's low was 10.26.

 

On the upside, the THREE Bullish Targets begin at 10.79.  Today's high was 10.76.

Curses! 

I "coulda" had the alternative, and sold the 25% of the position "into strength," which would have been nice.

All-lllmost got it...but, I didn't.    

Excluding a nasty gap down, below my stop in the low 9.80s, I've accomplished structuring the trade so that I end up with a little better than break even, so that's fine.

We worked off some "overhang" today from that AWFUL "Gap To Crap" Reversal candle, so we'll see what develops.  It isn't going to cost me anything (excluding a gap down) to find out if GIGM really is as bullish as the chart looks (post at the bottom of the last page).

Thanks, again, buddy! 

Quote from: Melf Elf on November 13, 2006, 02:46:42 PM
Sold 25% of the position at 10.33.  Gain: 4.3%

Sold remaining 75% of GIGM at 10.00.  Gain: 0.9%.  Gain on the trade: 1.8%

Quote from: Melf Elf on November 27, 2006, 04:12:53 PM
Sold remaining 75% of GIGM at 10.00.  Gain: 0.9%.  Gain on the trade: 1.8%

I've had better trades in GIGM, but that pitiful 1.8% gain looks mighty good this morning.

There was a chance of the 9.99-9.98 neckline (purple line) being support when I sold, but the overriding factor in my decision to sell was the break of the Ascending Triangle (pattern in green). 

I made a mistake, not selling earlier that day (November 27) when the Ascending Triangle pattern broke decisively below the "last low" of the pattern, which was 10.20.  I should have sold at 10.19.  That would have given me another 2% on the trade.

But, I was making the same old mistake, "hoping," that 9.99 - 9.98 would be support, when the evidence was telling me that an Ascending Triangle just broke to the downside, putting a target of 9.63 IN PLAY.

Selling for that 1.8% gain wasn't so hot,  but at yesterday's close, my position would be down 10.6%, which would have been an even bigger mistake.

"Admit your mistakes as quickly as possible, and get outta there." 

Quote from: David Randolph on November 09, 2006, 08:13:41 PM
GIGM's results were good, but not good enough as the stock is overvalued in my opinion. You can read my full analysis on GIGM on this other thread: GIGM analysis

(later I'll merge the two threads)

David, your analysis has been merged......
It's located at page 19 of this thread.

Shorting GIGM, keeps getting pushed down and rejected by the 9EMA.
Optimal area to cover would be between 6.5 and 7, the target of the H&S Top breakdown.

Just sold short at 9.65 guys, wish me luck.

Covered at 9.63 before the close, wasn't confortable with today's action.
I was actually expecting more weakness as the day developed.
Will try again again tomorrow.

too early bocasva:
GigaMedia's Leading Game Portal FunTown Partners with Yahoo! Taiwan
Friday December 15, 11:52 am ET
Extends Wretch Partnership to Yahoo! Taiwan

TAIPEI, Taiwan, Dec. 15 /Xinhua-PRNewswire/ -- GigaMedia Limited ("GigaMedia" or the "Company") (Nasdaq: GIGM - News) announced today that its leading casual games portal FunTown has entered into a strategic cooperation agreement with Yahoo! Taiwan Inc. ("Yahoo! Taiwan") designed to broaden and enrich the entertainment and community offerings of both portals.

ADVERTISEMENT
The strategic cooperation adds Yahoo!'s leading online entertainment and community offerings to FunTown's world number one MahJong and other online casual game offerings. The cooperation includes co-marketing of FunTown's games on key Yahoo! Taiwan properties and revenue sharing on resulting sales.

The strategic cooperation with Yahoo! Taiwan follows the proposed acquisition by Yahoo! Taiwan of GigaMedia's strategic partner Wretch, which acquisition is expected to close in early 2007. Wretch is Taiwan's top community "blog" site. As part of this transaction, GigaMedia has agreed to cancel its option to purchase equity interest in Wretch in exchange for the larger strategic cooperation with Yahoo! Taiwan and a cash payment.

Cooperation with Wretch will continue under the new agreement with Yahoo! Taiwan and expand to include strategic cooperation with Yahoo! Taiwan. Direct links to a co-branded FunTown and Yahoo Taiwan! Web site will be prominently featured throughout Wretch, and will be placed on Yahoo! Taiwan's online game and messenger homepages with banner advertisement rights designed to drive users to the co-branded site. Members of Yahoo! Taiwan will also be able to use their login and password to directly access FunTown's games on the co-branded site.

additionally info:
GigaMedia to be sales agent for on-line game Hellgate: London
   
Press release, December 15; Adam Hwang, DigiTimes.com [Friday 15 December 2006]

NASDAQ-listed GigaMedia, a Taiwan provider of broadband Internet-based value-added services and contents, on December 14 announced it won the operating franchise for the upcoming Hellgate: London on-line RPG (role-playing game) developed by US-based Flagship Studios. Won for US$9 million, the operating franchise covers Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macao, GigaMedia said.

Along with distributor of on-line games Cybergate, GigaMedia plans to establish US-based joint venture Dragongate Entertainment to operate the game in the three markets. The joint venture will later establish a branch in Taiwan. Before that, the game will be operated by GigaMedia's subsidiary FunTown, GigaMedia noted. FunTown is a leading producer and operator of on-line games in Taiwan.

Hellgate: London is expected to be launched in mid-2007, and it is not yet determined whether the operation will be free or paid on a monthly basis, according to FunTown. In Taiwan, the game is expected to attract more than 300,000 members and over 100,000 concurrent players in first three months, FunTown indicated.

http://www.digitimes.com/NewsShow/NewsSearch.asp?DocID=00000000000000000000000000006686&query=GIGAMEDIA