3SOF

Hahaha!!!! 

You know I will 

FWIW it looks like when this thing runs, it picks up about $5 at a time, now this time might be different if the news is big, but if your options strategy can encompass a move to around $17 then you should probably be alright.  I don't see NFLD breaking $15 without news. 

However, I would be just a little bit careful with this one, simply because the expected announcement about the phase III results is expected "sometime in the fall" which means soon. And as we know, this is really the single most important announcement the company will make, as it determines their likelihood of their FDA submission, and the future of the company.  So oviously when it hits the wires, this stock is gonna gap one way or the other, and it will probably gap bigtime.  Upside gaps on major news for biotechs can often be 20-30% or higher.  Downside gaps on bad news can be simply horrific, often over 50% or more.  And because this company has nothing else to support it, it will very likely crash completely.  So a news related gap could blow out both of your options strategies on this one.  But I know you already know that...

The crazy options volatility suggests that a lot of people are hedging their bets on the outcome of this trial - if you can make sense of what the options volatility suggest, please, let me know!

Anyway, happy trading in whatever choice you decide to make!

ST - You are the Master!

Wish one ... granted!

Thank you for taking the time to help out ... NewbieRegulars!

SO ... Should I stop posting here and start posting on your thread instead? Thanks for all the blame ... nice!

AND ... since you're one of the mucky mucks (and I use that in the most endearing way... because I love you all ) Why are options and stock picking separated?

If you guys don't consider merging the two .. I may be forced to try and come up with better ideas in the Option folder ... Then where would you all be ... lookin' to option traders for your ideas?? Dogs and cats ... sleeping together ... it just might be mayhem! Seems we can all benefit from a good "tell". Options ideas may turn out to be just as valid as lines, triangles, banners etc ...it would be a good back scratcher for both "teams"...

I'll look for bigger bodied butterflies to expand the gap... just picture a fat butterfly and you'll get the picture

And ... just so you know... I'm only high maintenance ... because I'm blond. And as soon as I come up with  a good brunet joke ... I swear to god I'm posting it in the lounge!!!!!! hahahahahHAHAHAHAHA

Glad you're watching

-Samantha

Applaud Samantha for your excellant options 101.

As this thread is entirely NFLD and also Options whether top merge it or not is a good question. Personally I'd like to keep it here in options for now so other people can read and enjoy the detail.

Keep up your options posts, people are interested to learn (me included 

Good Trading

Cool! So I made the Long Iron Butterfly a little wider...

Long Iron Butterfly:

And here is a wider Long Put Butterfly:

AussieTrader - I'm so thrilled you saw this string and commented!!!! It's nice to have all the smart people keeping me in line! The daunting task should not just be Melf Elf. LOVE HIM!!!

Though ... technically... Butterflies and such are covered in the Options 102 course....

OK - so when you start stretching the body of the butterfly strategies listed below... They do both get "safer" but the risk/reward is just not really as appealing. I liked this stock for the near money option volatility. As you get farther and farther away from that, you lose that edge.

That's why i keep thinking there has got to be a calendar or diagonal spread in here some where!!!!

BUT it could be "easy" money when you consider the up and downside breakevens and such.

If anyone has troubles interpreting the info and extrapolating the ramification, PLEASE LET ME KNOW!!!
Don't hold me to these last quotes ... I've tipped back a couple and it is WAY past my bed time...

-Samantha

Today NFLD had a lot of bullish momentum indicated by the white marubozu.  This is a possible bollinger band squeeze play.  You can see how they are spreading and moving in opposite directions.  A good bullish entry would be if the stock made a new high tomorrow.  The Dec. 12.5 calls would be the option I'd pick.  I don't usually do front-month unless I'm day-trading or swing-trading.  Bollinger squeezes are swing-trade plays, and last 3-5 days.  Exit the position when the lower band curves up and the stock stops going up.

Leaira

Very cool Bollinger Squeeze play. I've never used the Bollinger Bands like that, but it makes sense. With the $12.50 options @ $3.50, and resistance looking like it's around 15 or 16...and really only playing if for a couple days ... during the holidays... I just might consider playing the stock instead.

I wish I could figure out a way to sell that IV in the front month with a calendar spread...

Thank you so much for your help.
-Samantha

yeah was watching it today, very nice action, but didn't pull the trigger (don't ask why  )  By the time I got round to seriously looking at it, it was banging at 14.50, and for now is too close to $15 resistance for me to feel safe about an entry right here.  If it takes out that resistance, then I'm in!  Was trying to get my head around some of the crazy options talk on the Yahoo MB, but I just don't get it yet.  I think I will have to do some reading about options and options trading to get a better grasp.  Any suggestions???

Hi ST!
Oh my ... I'm still trying to figure Options out. I have an excel workbook of calculated and linked sheets ... of all the strategy permutations that I've been able to figure out. It's now 500 pages long. I thought I lost it last night when the wind storm killed our power...3 TIMES. No ... I hadn't backed it up... because... I'm blonde!!!! 

The website Optionmonster.com has lots of really helpful information and resources about options. You have to sign up, but it's free. Lots of good info and screens and simulators. It's a really cool site.

And Optionetics.com has some cool information as well (no that's not option Scientology... )  But for the $4K they want you to spend on their course ... you would have to wonder if they serve cool-aide during the 2 days. hahahahahahHAHAHA 

To get to NFLD ... I went to Optionmonster ... clicked on Options ... tools ... analysis... Implied volatility ratio scan ... then in the Option Volume & Volatility Filters ... I chose Schaeffer's Volatility Index vs Historical Volatility Filter  ... I changed the filter to Current IV above Historical ... so I could find stocks that are expensive now. In theory, they should be expensive because something is happening... or going to happen ... soon.

OH - And the Najarian brothers broadcast from CBOE.com twice a day with unusual volume. They've even talked about unusual volumes that have turned out to be insider trading ... um and not the good kind. But once it's public, it's fair game ... kind of like doing the crime without doing the time .

Leaira may have better info/resources. I have to admit, for NFLD ... Leaira's "KISS" theory seems really ... brilliant. Options can sometimes let you WAY over complicate the process.

At the very least, I like to check the options on stocks, so I can get a feel for where people are placing their future bets. AND ... you know how there's that phenomenon that round numbers tend to provide support and resistance? I think there's something to that ... but I also think that when there is a huge volume of options at a strike, that can really contribute to the explanation. 

OK ... so I'm pulling out my candlestick & chart analysis books ...all 50 of them ... so I can read up. I keep drawing lines all over my stocks and wondering 1) Is that where everyone else would put that line? 2) Do I have too many lines?? 3) Have I drawn any recognizable pattern whatsoever??? 4) If I'm right... what does it all mean? And then I print and hang it on my wall as impressionistic art. hahahHAHAHAHAHA

Samantha,

I learned most of what I know about options by just hanging out in the chat room at www.bettertrades.com.  The site also has many free online courses where the instructors actually take the time to explain strategies to anyone who wants to learn.  Oh, I'm also a blonde too!   


Happy Thanksgiving!
Leaira

ok NOW I'm in - broke $15 in style - I really didn't expect it, but it looks like it really wants it on this one!!! hope you got your calls!

I'm glad someone is making money on this. I had an order ready to go at $15.01 and then I went down stairs for a cup of coffee and it was at 15.75. I'm so sad ... why can't I pull the trigger???
-Samantha

I missed it too - but I picked up some at 15.20.  I really thought it was going to fall over at 14.90!  Oh well, there are times you dould be making tea and times you should be making MONEY!!!!  Is pulling back some, so might be worth sticking a toe in..  i just got a bit more at 15.40 

Boy this charting stuff really works! My daily upper resistance line is at $16.36 ... and that's where it hit and fell.

What do you do now??
-Samantha