3SOF

Quote from: wontfindaname on November 22, 2006, 05:45:55 PM

QuoteIf the Merger is not consummated, PharmAthene and SIGA have agreed to negotiate, in good faith and exclusively for 90 days, the terms of a definitive license agreement for SIGA-246, SIGA's lead biodefense compound. As a result, SIGA could become less attractive to new merger partners or investors generally if the Merger is not completed.

The above was taken from a proxy statement filed on June 30, discussing the terms of the merger agreement. As the merger was not consummated, there is a 90 day period for which SIGA has to wait before striking a license deal with other companies.

thx, didn't know that but it says with 'other companies', I think this has no influence on a possible  contract with the government or am i seeing this wrong?

Yes I was talking about licensing out the drug to other companies. Government contract is not affected by this. However, knowing the pace at which the govt works, I don't foresee them giving SIGA a 500 million contract before the end of the year.

Quote from: rickjust on November 20, 2006, 11:46:07 AM
support 1. : 3.57
3.88+3.88=7.76 -4.19=3.57
support 2: 3.39
3.88 - .49  ( 4.06 - 3.57 = .49) = 3.39
resistance 1: 4.06
3.88 + 3.88 = 7.76 - 3.70 = 4.06
resistance 2:  4.37
3.88 + .49 = 4.37
so i am going to watch this week and update this next weekend to see how it reacted to these calculations .
thanks,
maxi

hi,
siga held onto my support level at 357 hitting one penny above on two of the four days last week.
4 out of 4 days with a lower top. 3 out of 4 with a lower or even bottom. didn't break the pivot at 388. high this past week being 385
this weeks pivot : 369
support1: 353
support2: 342
resistance1: 380
rest2: 4.07
wekkly chart still looks strong
thanks
maxi

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SIGA mentioned, could add some fuel ...

Caution on Bioterror

By Marc Lichtenfeld
Senior Columnist
11/28/2006 7:17 AM EST
Click here for more stories by Marc Lichtenfeld

Next week the Senate is expected to revamp Project Bioshield, a $5.6 billion spending plan meant to shore up the nation's defenses against a bioterror attack.


The original law, enacted in June 2002, was supposed to provide inducements for biotech companies to work on vaccines and antidotes for threats such as anthrax and Ebola. However, the structure of the bill actually served as a disincentive.
That's because companies weren't going to get paid until the products they developed were approved for use. Large biotechs such as Amgen (AMGN - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) and Genentech (DNA - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) had little interest in the government's program. After all, they had businesses to run.

At the same time, several smaller firms were salivating over the possibility of large contracts and eagerly signed up. The problem has been that participating companies have had a difficult time successfully developing products and getting through the period before a treatment is successfully launched, when cash is going out but none is coming in.

The newest bill, sponsored by Sen. Richard Burr (R., N.C.) will, among other things, add $1 billion to the program to fund companies prior to product approval. That should ease the financial strain for firms developing products that the government deems essential to protecting our nation's health.

Below are some of the publicly traded companies that are researching ways to protect the American public from bioterror threats. Just keep in mind that many of these companies have very low market caps, are thinly traded, have little or no revenue or track records and should be considered very speculative.

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Nevertheless, it's not difficult to imagine a threat sending these stocks soaring, so you should be aware of which ones could participate in a rally caused by fears of bioterror.
Mixed Results
Two of the most frightening potential bioweapons are anthrax and smallpox, both of which can be fatal to humans. Recall that the former was used five years ago when a series of anthrax-laced letters were sent through the mail, to deadly effect. Research efforts haven't been without promise, but a great deal of work remains to be done before treatments or vaccines are widely available.

VaxGen (VXGN - commentary - Cramer's Take) has been the recipient of the largest contract under Project Bioshield, but recently things have taken a damaging turn.

Should the company successfully deliver the 75 million doses of anthrax vaccine stipulated in the contract, it will gross $877.5 million. However, VaxGen has failed in its efforts so far, and earlier this month the Food and Drug Administration ordered a clinical halt on its phase II tests. The company has until Dec. 18 to resolve the issues with the FDA, or the government could terminate the contract.

Emergent Biosolutions (EBS - commentary - Cramer's Take), which went public two weeks ago, already has an approved anthrax vaccine. Its contract with the government calls for the purchase of 10 million doses at a cost of $243 million.


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If you plan on investing here, know that you'll be one of only a handful of stockholders. The Gaithersburg, Md.-based company is tightly controlled by CEO Fuad El-Hibri, who owns more than 81% of the outstanding stock. Aside from its anthrax fighter, Emergent is also working on a vaccine against botulism.
Meanwhile, Human Genome Sciences (HGSI - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) has received a $165 million contract from the Department of Health and Human Services for 20,000 doses of ABthrax. Roughly 90% of the total funds are expected in 2008 upon delivery of the drug.

As for smallpox, Acambis (ACAM - commentary - Cramer's Take) has two offerings for treating the virus. One is a vaccine called ACAM2000, and the company expects to sell 10 million doses for $30 million to the U.S. government this year.

The other product recently was dealt a setback after the U.S. said it wouldn't be considered for a potential $1 billion contract. Acambis plunged 40% in one day.

The company was working on the second product with Baxter International (BAX - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating), the distributor of ACAM2000. Bavarian Nordic, whose stock trades in Copenhagen, is now believed to be the favorite for the contract.

A company still doing research is Siga Technologies (SIGA - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating), whose SIGA-246 smallpox antiviral is in preclinical studies. The company claims SIGA-246 is the first drug ever to demonstrate 100% protection against human smallpox in a primate trial.

Understand that smallpox is considered by health authorities to have been eradicated, but samples of the virus remain held in labs. Were a case to appear today, it would be "the result of an intentional act," the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says on its Web site. "A single confirmed case of smallpox would be considered an emergency."



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Also high on the list of the government's worries are hemorrhagic fever viruses such as Ebola. An Ebola vaccine, being developed by Dutch biotech company Crucell (CRXL - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating), recently entered phase I trials with 48 healthy volunteers. Currently, no cure or vaccine for Ebola is on the market.
Nuclear Threat
As if biological agents weren't menacing enough, the government also has to contend with the horrific possibility that terrorists could one day use a radioactive device against the U.S. or its interests.

"Everyone is talking about nuclear," says Dr. Jean Patterson, chairwoman of the Department of Virology and Immunology at the Southwest Foundation for Biomedical Research. Patterson, an expert on bioterrorism, says that the threat of a nuclear attack is now at the forefront of law enforcement officials' concerns.

While a so-called dirty bomb would be deadly to those in the immediate vicinity and likely cause widespread panic, the threat of radiation poisoning is low, according to most experts. In fact, most deaths would be attributed to the explosion of the device rather than the radiation.

Still, with North Korea saying it's making bombs and worries in the West that Iran wants to do the same, protecting American lives from atomic weapons has become a very high priority.

One of the defensive-minded companies is Hollis-Eden Pharmaceuticals (HEPH - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating), which hopes to receive a contract from the HHS early next year for a drug to treat acute radiation syndrome. No dollar figures have been provided. The drug, Neumune, is also set to begin phase I/II trials for health-care-associated infections.

Separately, Akorn (AKN - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) has received a $21.9 million contract for 450,000 units of Ca-DTPA and Zn-DTPA, which treats internal contamination from radioactive elements.

To call many of these names speculative is an understatement, to say the least. In a number of cases, the government might be a company's only customer. Nevertheless, if the unthinkable happens or is even threatened, you'll know which stocks might see a rush of activity. Tread carefully, and let's hope that these companies' products are never needed.

http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/newsanalysis/biotech/10324397_4.html

Long term I think this stock is da bomb, but at least for this week, I don't foresee any major changes. I think it might drop a nickel or so and then maybe come back to the 3.60 level at the best. Next week, after the senate hearings, I think we should see some positive price movement.

I just got stomped out at 3.50.  Dang it!  It didn't bounce like I was hoping it would.

O well......On to the next trade.

Quote from: Melf Elf on November 22, 2006, 04:28:44 AM
For today, November 22, yesterday's high of 3.82 becomes the Buy Pivot, and a print of 3.83 is the Buy Signal.

So, "Push has come to shove" here.

The 3.83 Buy Signal needs to get printed, or SIGA simply could "slip slide away" to the 3.20-ish target IN PLAY from the Triangle break SIGA had last week (the break below the yellow trendline on the intraday chart, posted over the weekend), or it could slide even lower than that.

No Buy Signal was issued, and SIGA has been "slip sliding away" to the 3.20-ish target IN PLAY.

The bottom of the channel, basis the daily chart, comes in today at 3.30.  Today's low is 3.30, thus far, so we'll see if that holds, or if SIGA is going to head lower toward the target.

The channel drops at the rate of five cents per day, so a direct hit to the bottom of the channel at 3.20 would come in on Thursday, November 30.

I'll post the updated daily chart before the open tomorrow.

SIGA currently is BID 3.33...ASK 3.34

Quote from: Melf Elf on November 28, 2006, 01:51:31 PM
The bottom of the channel, basis the daily chart, comes in today at 3.30.  Today's low is 3.30, thus far, so we'll see if that holds, or if SIGA is going to head lower toward the target.

3.30 held as the low of the day.  That was a direct hit to the bottom of the channel, and the fact that buyers stepped in exactly at 3.30, validates it as support.

Problems:

1. Volume was 1.1 Million shares yesterday.  Volume has been well under that for the past several sessions, so there was more selling, as SIGA printed new lows for the move.

2. Although buyers stepped in right at the bottom of the channel, which is good, there wasn't much of a bounce higher.  SIGA closed at the low end of the day's range, at 3.38.

Instead of a "Let's Take This Baby Higher" response off the tag of the channel, the session ended "on a dumb note," so speak, limping back to a 3.38 close.

3. It's a DECLINING channel, so SIGA "could" continue to "walk its way down the channel," continuing to go lower, yet still remain within the confines of the channel. 

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No Buy Signal was issued, and SIGA has been "slip sliding away" to the 3.20-ish target IN PLAY.

The channel drops at the rate of five cents per day, so a direct hit to the bottom of the channel at 3.20 would come in on Thursday, November 30.

That's a possibility, to hit the 3.20 target AND bang off the bottom of the channel, simultaneously, on Thursday...

Another possibility is to tag the bottom of the channel again today, at 3.25 , then reverse higher.  3.25 also is the bottom of the Kumo (Cloud).

We'd like to see some sign of an upside reversal, rather than "limping home" to the 3.38 close yesterday.  It's certainly possible that SIGA could rally right from the get-go today, but then I'd want to see yesterday's 3.60 and the top of the channel get taken out, if that were to occur.

On the downside, if we get something like a tag of 3.25, then a rally back to UNCH, at 3.38, that would be an indication that the stock wants to go higher now.

A nice Bullish Hammer off the bottom of the channel.  Something like that.

BE CAREFUL if this channel breaks to the downside.  Players know that it's there, and they could get panicky if it breaks.  There are a lot of bagholders in this stock who have significant paper losses, particularly in those early high volume candles, beginning with the GIANT "Gap To Crap" candle to 5.50, and that gap down to 2.04 yawns below.

Good luck if you own it, or if you play it.

wow. you called that one. We did hit 3.25. Let's hope it holds there. Or even if it breaks, let's hope that it just happens today and shakes out all the weak hands simultaneously.

Quote from: wontfindaname on November 29, 2006, 10:48:07 AM
wow. you called that one. We did hit 3.25.

wontfindaname,

Yeah, players clearly are keying off that channel.  SIGA banged off 3.25 very quickly, and if this 5-Minute candle is accurate, it's a Bullish Island Reversal to the upside.  Needs follow-thru, of course.

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Let's hope it holds there. Or even if it breaks, let's hope that it just happens today and shakes out all the weak hands simultaneously.

There "could be" a downside break of the channel that ends up being a Bear Trap Fakeout, but be careful if it does break, and please use a stop loss to limit your risk.  As you know, this is a very volatile stock, and with that HUGE gap below, this could get out of control on the downside on a channel break.

Good luck!

Good luck!

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Quote from: Melf Elf on November 29, 2006, 11:09:56 AM
[There "could be" a downside break of the channel that ends up being a Bear Trap Fakeout, but be careful if it does break, and please use a stop loss to limit your risk.  As you know, this is a very volatile stock, and with that HUGE gap below, this could get out of control on the downside on a channel break.

3.24 got printed, so that's a technical break of the channel, but it's only by one penny, so far, and it "could be" a downside fakeout.  But again, be careful here.

The 11:03AM high was 3.31.  We're back to 3.31 right now.  That  needs to get taken out to the upside for SIGA to look at all bullish here.

SIGA currently is BID 3.30...ASK 3.31

Good luck, everyone!

Great work Melf Elf, immediately after it printed 3.24, some buying came in! Back at 3.27 now ..

Quote from: Se7en on November 29, 2006, 12:25:32 PM
Great work Melf Elf, immediately after it printed 3.24, some buying came in! Back at 3.27 now ..

Thanks, Se7en.  Yeah, there can't have been many trades at the 3.24.  Players are stepping in at the bottom rail of the channel, but they'll step right back out if that gets broken by very much.

The two local highs are at 3.31, so a print of 3.32 "should" bring in some buying interest.  We don't want to see SIGA close down here, or go limping home like a wounded dog at the closing bell.

The open was 3.42, so in order to qualify for a "true" Bullish Hammer off the bottom of the channel, SIGA needs to close at 3.36, or better.  That would give it a tail that is twice as long as the "real body," which is the Open and the Close.

Good luck!

hi ,
breaking down here,
below 325

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,

support1: 353
support2: 342
resistance1: 380
rest2: 4.07

maxi

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support 2 broken 342. now  resstance on my 5min chart previous post